thesis about population growth in the philippines

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Rapid Population Growth, Crowded Cities Present Challenges in the Philippines

June 9, 2003

Yvette Collymore

Former Senior Editor

Focus Areas

Children, Youth, and Families World and U.S. Population Trends

(June 2003) Fast-paced population growth and rampant urbanization represent some of the major population concerns in the Philippines, a country of 80 million people where the average number of children born to a woman is close to four and where a sizeable 37 percent of the population is under age 15.

These issues represent major stumbling blocks in efforts to reduce poverty and improve living standards in the Philippines. In 2000, roughly one-third of the population (nearly 27 million Filipinos) lacked the roughly US$275 required annually to satisfy food and non-food basic needs, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) estimates. Such poverty, exacerbated by prolonged El Niño-induced drought and the residual effects of the 1997/1998 financial crisis that shook the region, limits the ability of the poor to gain access to health and other services.

The Philippines is also among the world’s fastest urbanizing countries, and overcrowded cities present their own challenges. With some 47 percent of the population living in urban areas, compared with 31 percent in Thailand and 16 percent in Cambodia, the country has more than 200 urban areas that have populations of more than 50,000, notes the country’s Commission on Population (POPCOM). By World Bank estimates, these urban centers could expand to some 600 by 2020, largely because high levels of rural poverty are pushing people into the cities.

The concentration of economic development in relatively few urban areas and rapid population growth throughout the country are other factors contributing to urban sprawl. Compared with other countries in the region, the Philippines is experiencing rapid population growth. The rate of natural increase — the birth rate minus the death rate — is 2.2 percent, compared with 0.8 percent in Thailand and Singapore and 1.9 percent in Malaysia.

In addition to fleeing to urban commercial centers, many people leave the country for work. An average of 2,500 Filipinos leave the country every day for work abroad, and the Philippines is second only to Mexico as an exporter of labor. An estimated 10 percent of the country’s population, or nearly 8 million people, are overseas Filipino workers distributed in 182 countries, according to POPCOM. That is in addition to the estimated 3 million migrants who work illegally abroad. According to official statistics of the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration, Filipino workers abroad sent home US$6.8 billion in 1999 alone. A large proportion of these remittances come from women who are the majority of overseas Filipino workers.

* May include formal and/or informal unions. Sources: Carl Haub, 2002 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: PRB, 2002); Justine Sass and Lori Ashford, 2002 Women of Our World (Washington, DC: PRB, 2002); PRB, The World’s Youth 2000 (Washington, DC: PRB, 2000). All these data can be easily found in PRB’s DataFinder.

Yvette Collymore is senior editor at PRB.

Oldest Areas May Be Hardest Hit: The Importance of Age Structure in Understanding Mortality During the Coronavirus Pandemic

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Finally, the demographic tipping point

The repercussions of this overpopulation are pervasive, impacting vital sectors such as agriculture (rice, sugar, and fish), as well as essential services like energy, water, housing, health care, education, and infrastructure. While poor governance marked by political dynasties, a lack of long-term strategy, bureaucratic inefficiency, and institutional corruption contribute significantly to these challenges, none are as fundamental as the glaring imbalance between population growth and available resources.

As late as 2019, the usual lament about the burgeoning Philippine population was being repeated by the Philippine Statistical Authority: a United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report noted that with some 108 million people in 2019, the Philippines was the 13th most populous country in the world. The population continues to increase, with three babies born per minute. It was also one of the youngest countries, with 52 percent of the total population below 24 years old (30 percent are 10-24 years old).

The UNFPA, the Population Commission (PopCom), and the National Economic and Development Authority were worried that the demographic window of opportunity was closing fast. Can the Philippines reap the demographic dividend? Will we actualize the economic growth potential that results from households having fewer children but more productive young people with better health, better education, and decent jobs who can save and invest?

In 2020, the tune was changing. The PopCom reported that the Philippines recorded its lowest number of births in 34 years, with only 1,516,042 registered births. This was accompanied by a 13-percent decrease in the number of adolescent births, the sharpest decline since 2003. Further, Filipinos using birth control in 2020 totaled 8,085,000, an increase of 6 percent from 2019.

This unexpected, critical turnaround has caught the attention of the world. Dubbed a “population puzzle,” this trend was tackled in a CNA Insider video, “Philippines Successfully Lowers Birth Rate: Will It Stay or Rebound?” Likewise, the roundtable “Pagpipigil sa Pangigigil?” subtitled “PH logs slowest population growth in 75 years” also featured this topic.

The fertility rate in the Philippines has plummeted to 1.9, even below the replacement rate. This decline, remarkable and unexpected, hints at a potential tipping point in the nation’s demographic landscape. The catalyst for this change can be traced to the implementation of the reproductive health law, championed during the tenure of President Benigno Aquino III and effectively executed by the Duterte administration.

This controversial law has since taken deep roots, focusing on reproductive health education and providing operational resources for family planning, enabling Filipinos to take charge of their family size. Despite decades of failed governmental attempts to curb population growth, it appears that the pandemic’s shock, which plunged an additional four million Filipinos into poverty, acted as a wake-up call. The realization that large families perpetuate poverty has driven a significant shift in family planning decisions.

The reproductive health law has become the linchpin in this transformation, empowering families to plan effectively. This shift in mindset is the most crucial emerging trend that holds the promise of lifting Filipinos out of widespread poverty and steering the country toward tangible and sustainable national development. Moreover, this positive change is expected to extend its influence in other “mind shift” areas, such as the wider adoption of science and technology in local problem-solving. Local governments, from cities to barangays, can leverage these technologies to enhance the responsiveness of public services to the needs of their constituents.

The Philippines stands at a crossroads where the unexpected decline in the fertility rate, fueled by the reproductive health law and catalyzed by the shocks of the pandemic, holds the potential to reshape the nation’s trajectory. As Filipinos take control of their family planning decisions, the ripple effects of this demographic shift promise not only to uplift individuals from poverty but also to pave the way for a more sustainable and prosperous future. Some sectors are already warning of a Filipino aging population like Japan’s, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves and savor this demographic tipping point.

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POPULATION GROWTH IN THE PHILIPPINES

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Population growth in the Philippines

Population development in the philippines since 1960, annual growth rates in percent, birth and death rate in the philippines.

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