pakistan flooding case study

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Pakistan case study: Coordinated and comprehensive response to the 2022 floods

Devastating floods in Pakistan affected 33 million people in 2022, with 8 million displaced, 13,000 injured and 1,700 killed – the latest in a series of increasingly frequent and severe climate-induced disasters. This case study explores how the empowered UN Resident Coordinator (RC) system was invaluable for responding to the complex crisis. Thanks to strengthened coordination capacities, including at the sub-national level the RC Office offered support to enable a swift humanitarian response, to augment the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)’s limited in-country resources in the immediate aftermath. The RC also enabled a focus on a collaborative approach with international financial institutions (IFIs), including for long-term recovery. The Living Indus Initiative, which emerged from the strategic prioritization for Pakistan’s UN Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework led by the RC, became the blueprint for a long-term approach, ensuring that UN efforts went beyond a mere response to a one-off disaster.  

Read the full case study here. 

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• Published: 14 October 2023

Causes of 2022 Pakistan flooding and its linkage with China and Europe heatwaves

• Chi-Cherng Hong   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-9732-249X 1 ,
• An-Yi Huang   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2872-2294 1 ,
• Huang-Hsiung Hsu   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9919-4404 2 ,
• Wan-Ling Tseng   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6644-9965 2 , 3 ,
• Mong-Ming Lu   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-1694-034X 4 &
• Chih-Chun Chang 1  

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science volume  6 , Article number:  163 ( 2023 ) Cite this article

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In boreal summer of 2022, Pakistan experienced extremely high rainfall, resulting in severe flooding and displacing over 30 million people. At the same time, heatwaves persisted over central China and Europe. The coexistence of these extreme events suggests a possible linkage. Our analysis indicated that the record rainfall was mainly induced by compounding factors. These included (1) La Niña-induced strong anomalous easterlies over the northern Indian subcontinent, (2) intense southerlies from the Arabian Sea with an upward trend in recent decades, (3) an interaction between extratropical and tropical systems, specifically the northerly flow downstream of the Europe blocking and the southerly monsoon flow from the Arabian Sea. Wave activity flux and regression analyses unveiled a distinct stationary Rossby wave-like pattern connecting the flooding in Pakistan and heatwaves in Europe and China. This pattern, an emerging teleconnection pattern in recent decade, exhibited substantial differences from the reported teleconnection patterns. We also noted the positive feedback of the excessive Pakistan rainfall could further enhance the large-scale background flow and the heavy rainfall itself. The 2022 Pakistan flood event was an intensified manifestation of the 2010 Pakistan flood event, which was also caused by compounding factors, but occurred in a more pronounced upward trend in the both tropics and extratropics.

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Introduction.

In 2022, Pakistan experienced a sequence of unusually intense monsoon rainfall surges that struck from early July to late August. The extreme rainfall caused widespread landslides along the Indus River basin, resulting in flooding across one-third of the country. The flooding left over 30 million people homeless and resulted in 1000 deaths, as well as over USD 30 billion in damage and economic losses, according to the World Bank. The accumulated rainfall was approximately four standard deviations above the climatological mean value and was twice the amount of rainfall observed in the 2010 flooding event, which caused significant socioeconomic losses and nearly 3000 deaths. Concurrently, extreme heatwaves persisted over central China and Europe, severely affecting agriculture and power supply. The concurrence of these extreme events suggests a possible linkage 1 .

The year 2022 witnessed a triple-dip La Niña that began in 2020. Previous studies have indicated that a La Niña summer tends to exhibit a strong western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) and Indian monsoon flow 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 . The influence of La Niña-induced changes in large-scale circulation has been identified as a crucial factor in causing the 2010 extreme flooding event 7 , 8 and likely had a similar impact in 2022. Although the Niño4 index reached an unusually low level during the boreal summer of 2022 (the second lowest since 1979, following 1999), the regression analysis of 850-hPa moisture flux on Niño4 and Niño3.4 (of moderate magnitude) individually did not exhibit substantial differences over the northern Indian subcontinent and Pakistan (not shown). This suggests that La Niña alone, including Niño4 SST, cannot fully explain the anomalous rainfall in Pakistan. For example, the total rainfall in 2022, despite having a moderate La Niña (Niño3.4), was nearly double that of the strong La Niña year in 2010. In addition, extreme rainfall events did not occur in other La Niña summers, such as 1998 and 1999.

The extreme events of 2010 and 2022 exhibited notable similarities, in addition to occurring during La Niña conditions. The 2010 flooding in Pakistan, which ranked among the top three in terms of accumulated rainfall since 1979, was attributed to a tropical–extratropical interaction. This interaction involved a northerly flow associated with a blocking high and heatwave over Europe, coupled with an intensified summer monsoon flow in the western Indian Ocean (IO) 7 , 9 , 10 . Similarly, in 2022, a strong blocking high and heatwave over Europe (45°–60°E) coincided with an intense summer monsoon in the Arabian Sea, observed from mid-June to late August. In both instances, the heatwave in Europe and the flooding in Pakistan were connected through an extratropical Rossby wave-like perturbation over the Eurasian continent. It is plausible that a comparable tropical–extratropical interaction contributed to the 2022 flooding in Pakistan. Furthermore, there is evidence of enhanced atmospheric perturbations and increasing sea surface temperatures (SST) in recent decades, which may have intensified extreme rainfall and heatwaves 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 . SST in the IO has been rising since 1980 15 , 16 , and higher SST levels contribute to increased moisture availability and strengthened moisture transport, potentially amplifying rainfall over mountainous regions in Pakistan. Understanding whether this trend played a role in the heavier rainfall observed in 2022 is therefore essential.

Extreme events have been reported to occur when different influencing factors synchronized 12 , 17 , 18 . In this study, we explore the physical processes that led to the record rainfall in Pakistan in 2022 (Fig. 1a ). Our focus is especially on the above-mentioned compounding effect on the extreme rainfall in 2022. Additionally, we address the linkage of the record rainfall with the Europe and China heatwaves. Our hypothesis posits that the flooding was caused by compounding factors: the unusually strong anomalous easterlies induced by La Niña over the northern Indian subcontinent, an enhanced southerly flow from the Arabian Sea characterized by an upward trend in recent decades, and the tropical–extratropical interaction between monsoon and northerly surges. Even more intriguingly, we identify a Rossby wave-like teleconnection pattern over the Eurasian continent, which has been in action since 2010, that connected the Pakistan’s record rainfall to the China and Europe heatwaves.

a Normalized time series of July–August averaged Pakistan (PKT; 22°–32°N, 63°–73°E) rainfall index (one standard deviation equals 1.31 mm day –1 ) and Central China 2-m temperature (T2m; 25°–35°N, 90°–120°E) index (one standard deviation equals 0.58 °C). The correlation coefficient between PKT rainfall and Central China T2m indices is 0.44 ( P  < 0.01) during 1979–2021. b July–August averaged anomalous precipitation (PR, shading; unit: mm day –1 ) and 850-hPa horizontal winds (UV850, vectors; unit: m s –1 ; minimum vector: 1). Black box indicates the region for Pakistan rainfall index. c Same as in ( b ), except the shading and black contour lines represent the near-surface temperature (T2m; unit: °C) and 500-hPa geopotential height (H500; unit: m; interval: 15) anomalies, respectively. Blue solid and dashed contour lines (5870-m isoline) are the 2022 and climatological mean of 500-hPa geopotential height, respectively, representing the location of WNPSH. Shadings with white crosses in both ( b , c ) indicate that the signals (precipitation and 2-m temperature) of each grid exceeded the 99th percentile during 1979–2022.

Features of the record rainfall in Pakistan

Figure 1a depicts the time series of July–August averaged rainfall in Pakistan and China’s 2-meter temperature (T2m) from 1979 to 2022. In addition, Fig. 1 presents the anomalous rainfall, T2m, 850-hPa wind, and 500-hPa geopotential height (H500) over the Eurasian continent in 2022. In 2022, both Pakistan and northwestern India experienced rainfall that exceeded the 99th percentile value based on the 1979–2022 data. Central China and northeastern Europe, downstream and upstream of Pakistan, respectively, witnessed below-normal rainfall and above-normal T2m values that exceeded the 99th percentile (Fig. 1b, c ). The extreme rainfall in Pakistan was accompanied by an intensified southwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea and an easterly anomaly associated with the strong Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) extending from the western North Pacific (WNP) to the northern Indian subcontinent. The convergence of the anomalous southwesterly and easterly winds near Pakistan provided a favorable large-scale condition for convection. At the same time, anomalous anticyclonic circulations and extreme warmth resided over Europe and China.

The daily time series of the Pakistan (PKT) rainfall index (Fig. 2a ) reveals three unusually strong monsoon rainfall surges during July–August 2022. During these surges, strong southerly flows originating in the Arabian Sea reached Pakistan and converged with the anomalous southward-penetrating northerly flow from the extratropics (Fig. 2b ). The first surge occurred in early to mid-July, followed by the second surge in late July, and the third, the strongest event, persisted from early to late August. Notably, both the first and third surges were accompanied by the northward propagation of convection from the Arabian Sea and the southward penetration of northerly from the extratropics toward Pakistan (Fig. 2c ), a phenomenon also observed during the other two extreme events in 2010 and 2020 (Supplementary Fig. 1c, g ). The three monsoon rainfall surges accounted for ~32%, 16%, and 49%, respectively, of the accumulated rainfall from July to August, collectively contributing to more than 90% of the total rainfall during that period. Consequently, a record accumulated rainfall of 450-mm was observed from July 1 st to August 31 st , which was approximately four times higher than the climatological average and twice as much as the previous record set in 2010. Understanding the first and third surges was particularly important because of their significant contribution to total rainfall and also the common influences by both southerly and northerly surges. Although a short-lived tropical storm occurred in the Arabian Sea on 12–13 August, it did not make landfall and thus did not significantly contribute to the observed excessive rainfall. The excessive rainfall in August was primarily attributed to the third monsoon surge 19 .

a Bars and lines represent daily and accumulated PKT rainfall (PR; unit: mm day –1 ), respectively. The colored bars indicate three extreme rainfall periods (surge 1 in green: 7/1–7/18, surge 2 in yellow: 7/23–7/30, and surge 3 in blue: 8/4–8/30). The numbers near colored bars are the percentage of the accumulated rainfall in each period against total period (7/1–8/31). b Hovmöller (time-latitude) diagram of 3-day averaged 10-m meridional wind (V10m, shading; unit: m s –1 ) averaged over 60°–75°E. c Same as ( b ), but for anomalous outgoing longwave radiation (OLR, shading; unit: 10 1  W m –2 ). White arrows indicate the northward propagation of convection. d Hovmöller (time-longitude) diagram of blocking index with shading representing the 500-hPa geopotential height gradient south of middle-high latitude (blocking index, BI; unit: m/degree latitude; only values larger than 0 are plotted) averaged over five grid points (details are documented in the methods section). Black contour lines (0 isoline) mark the regions of blocking.

A mid-to upper-level blocking high was observed over northeastern Europe (Fig. 1c ), similar to 2010 7 . The blocking high was particularly pronounced in August (Fig. 2d ) and accompanied by enhanced trough (downstream of the blocking) and northerly winds extending southward from extratropical Eurasia to South Asia (Fig. 2b ). The anomalous northerly flow transported cold-dry air southward, creating a convection-favorable environment (i.e., an unstable atmosphere) near Pakistan when it met the tropical warm-moist southerly flow from the Arabian Sea 7 . This tropical–extratropical interaction was also observed in 2010 and likely played a significant role in inducing the extreme rainfall. These characteristics were most evident during the first and third monsoon surge, coinciding with the arrival of the northerly wind anomaly at Pakistan from the deepened trough downstream of the extratropical positive height anomalies (Fig. 2b, d ). Our analysis showed that the Rossby wave-like perturbations over Eurasia occurred during the first and third rainfall surge. Their appearances were consistent with the duration of the rainfall event. That is, the pattern was persistently present in August but was relatively transient in July, especially during 5–11 July when large rainfall occurred (Supplementary Fig. 2 ).

All-time top 3 and top 1 rainfall events in Pakistan occurred, respectively, in 2010 and 2022. Both were La Niña years with anomalously low-level easterly winds over South Asia, an enhanced WNPSH, and an extratropical wave-like perturbation over Eurasia. However, they also differed in certain characteristics as discussed below. First, in 2022, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like SST anomaly (SSTA) occurred, with warmer sea surface temperatures in the eastern IO, whereas in 2010, a basin-wide warm SSTA was observed in the IO (Fig. 3a, b ). Second, an unusually persistent upper-level anticyclone anomaly was present over central China in 2022 (Fig. 3a ), while in 2010, positive anomalies appeared over central Eurasia and near Japan 20 (Fig. 3b ).

a Sea surface temperature (SST, shading; unit: °C) and 200-hPa stream function (PSI200, contour; unit 10 6  m 2  s –1 ; interval: 3) in 2022. b Same as ( a ), but for 2010. c Vertically integrated (surface–300-hPa) moisture flux convergence (MFC, shading; unit: g m –2  s –1 ) and moisture flux (UqVq, vectors; unit: 10 5  g m –1  s –1 ; minimum vector: 0.4) in 2022. Note that the values of MFC had been multiplied by “–1” (i.e., positive and negative values represent convergence and divergence, respectively). d Same as ( c ), but for 2010. Shadings with white crosses in both ( c , d ) indicate the MFC exceeding the 99th percentile during 1979–2022.

The 2022 event exhibited several distinctive features: record-breaking rainfall, the presence of La Niña, a strong and westward-extended WNPSH, a strong southerly flow over the Arabian Sea, an easterly anomaly over the northern Indian subcontinent, an upper-level trough associated with upstream Europe blocking, and vigorous tropical–extratropical interaction. To assess the rareness of these factors, we compared the circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics of the 2022 event with those of the 2010 and 2020 extreme events (exceeding 1.5 standard deviation of Pakistan rainfall) as well as the La Niña years in 1998 and 1999 (with 1 negative standard deviation of Niño3.4 but lower Pakistan rainfall) (Supplementary Fig. 3 ). The comparisons are summarized in Supplementary Table 1 .

An enhanced WNPSH and associated lower-level easterly anomalies extending from the WNP to the northern Indian subcontinent were observed in 1998, 2010, 2020, and 2022, but not in 1999 (Supplementary Fig. 4 ). The La Niña-associated SSTA in the eastern equatorial Pacific contributed to the enhancement of the WNPSH 21 , 22 in 1998, 1999, 2010, and 2022. In addition, the easterly anomaly associated with the WNPSH, extending from the WNP to the IO, indicates a weakened southwesterly monsoon flow, which could enhance moisture convergence and rainfall in Pakistan and northwestern India. Nevertheless, in the La Niña summers of 1998 and 1999, Pakistan received less rainfall than normal. In contrast, the summer rainfall in Pakistan in 2020, a non-La Niña summer, was comparable to that in 2010 (Supplementary Fig. 3 ).

Notably, while the July–August averaged Niño4 SST in 2022 was the second lowest (following 1999) since 1979, the regression of 850-hPa moisture fluxes on Niño4 and Niño3.4 show only minor differences over Pakistan and the northwestern Indian subcontinent (not shown). The correlation between the PKT index and Niño3.4 was even higher than that with Niño4, suggesting an unusually low Niño4 in 2022 was not an important factor as might be suspected. These findings suggest that the La Niña SSTA alone seemed insufficient to cause the extreme rainfall in Pakistan, even though the summer Indian monsoon flow was suggested to be statistically stronger in La Niña years compared to neutral years 23 , 24 , 25 . Similarly, the SSTA in the Indian Ocean, which exhibited distinct characteristics among the extreme rainfall summers of 2010, 2020, and 2022, did not seem to be an influential factor.

Furthermore, a clear tropical–extratropical interaction, similar to that observed in 2022, was identified in the extreme rainfall summer of 2010 (also a La Niña year), whereas it was absent in the two other La Niña years, 1998 and 1999 (not shown). This observation highlights the significant role of Europe-blocking-related wave activity in enhancing the tropical–extratropical interaction that contributed to the occurrence of extreme rainfall. These findings indicate that the extreme rainfall events in Pakistan during the summers of 2010 and 2022 were the result of multiple factors, including the La Niña-related enhancement of the WNPSH and the interaction between the tropical monsoon flow and extratropical disturbances. However, the reasons behind the higher rainfall in 2022 compared to 2010 remain unclear and are discussed in the following section.

Influencing factors

Climate extremes are often induced by compounding factors 18 , 26 , and the summer of 2022 happened to be a summer in which the following factors coexisted.

Previous studies have revealed that the negative SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific during a La Niña summer 24 can induce an anticyclonic anomaly (i.e., a typical Gill-type response) in the WNP. This anticyclonic anomaly substantially weakens the southwesterly flow in South and East Asia 25 , 27 . Consequently, the southwesterly flow becomes predominantly confined over the Arabian Sea, leading to enhanced moisture convergence and creating a more favorable environment for heavy rainfall in the northwestern Indian subcontinent. However, the above interpretation does not provide an explanation for why the total rainfall in 2022 was nearly double that of 2010, considering that the La Niña was slightly stronger in the boreal summer of 2010 than 2022.

One may suspect that the IO SSTA contributed to the stronger moist southwesterly flow over the Arabian Sea in 2022 compared to 2010 (Fig. 3c, d ). As mentioned earlier, while both 2010 and 2022 were La Niña summers, they exhibited distinct characteristics in terms of IO SSTA (Fig. 3a, b ). The question remains whether the negative IOD in 2022 resulted in a stronger southwesterly flow. Our calculation of the correlation coefficient (cc) between the 850-hPa meridional wind over the Arabian Sea (averaged over 10°–20°N, 50°–65°E) and the IOD index yielded a statistically insignificant 0.03 correlation ( P  = 0.83, calculated based on Fisher’s Z-transformation). Therefore, the enhanced southwesterly in 2022 cannot be solely attributed to the negative IOD.

The tropical–extratropical interaction was another crucial factor in helping induce the record rainfall (Fig. 2 ). This interaction was particularly evident during the third surge, which persisted throughout almost the entire month of August. The third rainfall surge occurred when the northerly wind associated with the upstream blocking converged with the southerly flow over Pakistan (Fig. 2 ). This convergence resulted in strong convection in Pakistan.

In addition, our numerical experiment suggests that the convection-induced diabatic heating near Pakistan may accelerate the southerly flow from the Arabian Sea (Supplementary Fig. 5a ), indicating a self-amplification between convection and circulation. A recent study reported that the atmospheric river from the Arabian Sea played a dominant role in the record rainfall over Pakistan in August 19 . Our study, in line with their findings, suggests the possibility that southward-penetrating extratropical disturbances helped trigger precipitation in Pakistan through tropical–extratropical interaction, which, in turn, could enhance the southerly flow (atmospheric river) from the Arabian Sea. This positive feedback process could be a key feature in explaining the heavy rainfall observed in 2022.

The same mechanism can also be applied to the 2010 event, and therefore it cannot explicitly explain the heavier rainfall in 2022. However, we observed larger moisture flux over the northern Indian subcontinent and the Arabian Sea, as well as greater convergence near Pakistan during 2022 compared to 2010.

Considering the compatible La Niña (slightly weaker but more persistent in 2022) and the strength of the WNPSH in 2010 and 2022, another possibility for the heavier rainfall in 2022 is the long-term trends commonly observed in many regions and variables. While the summer rainfall in Pakistan does not exhibit a significant trend (Supplementary Fig. 6a ), the moisture fluxes show a significant increasing trend in the Arabian Sea over 1979–2021 (Supplementary Fig. 6b ). Calculations reveal a significant correlation between Pakistan rainfall and the southerly flow in the Arabian Sea (cc = 0.32, P  < 0.05) during 1979–2021. When considering the contribution of the linear trend, the correlation coefficient increases to 0.41 ( P  < 0.001). Our analysis indicates that the increasing trend contributes approximately 21% of the total anomalous moisture flux convergence over Pakistan (Supplementary Fig. 7 ), potentially intensifying the rainfall. Particularly revealing features are the long-term trend of moisture flux over the Arabian Sea and from the Bay of Bengal to the northern Indian subcontinent, which led to the significant moisture flux convergence trend over Pakistan and northwestern India.

Furthermore, anticyclonic and warming trends have been observed over the western and eastern Eurasian continent. The anticyclonic trend in the eastern Eurasian continent is associated with an easterly flux trend over the northern Indian subcontinent (Supplementary Fig. 6b, c ). When removing the linear trend from the 2022 anomalies, we observe weaker anomalous highs over Europe and central China, as well as a weaker low-level easterly anomaly south of the Tibetan Plateau (Supplementary Fig. 6d–f ). These findings suggest that the recent trends have contributed to both the observed Eurasian anomalies and the extreme rainfall in Pakistan.

The intensifying trend of the southerly moisture flux over the Arabian Sea is likely a result of the enhanced land–sea contrast and the warming Arabian Sea in recent decades (Supplementary Fig. 6b, c ). The extratropical land has experienced faster warming compared to the ocean, particularly in central Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Arabian Sea (Supplementary Fig. 6c ). This increased land–sea contrast is speculated to lead to a stronger southerly flow over the Arabian Sea, allowing it to penetrate further into central Asia and the Arabian Peninsula. With the warmer SST in the Arabian Sea that would encourage more evaporation, the moisture flux trend could become even more significant. The intensified moisture transport from the Arabian Sea, combined with the lifting effect of the topography, could create strong upward motion near mountains (Supplementary Fig. 8 ), making a significant contribution to the rainfall in Pakistan.

Linkage between the flooding in Pakistan and heatwave in China and Europe

Another distinct feature of the 2022 Pakistan flooding is the linkage with the heatwaves in Europe and China (Fig. 4 ) through the Rossby wave-like perturbations over Eurasia. The linkage with the European heatwave was noted in the 2010 event 7 . The Pakistan rainfall was also connected with an East Asian heatwave in 2010 28 . However, the heatwaves primarily occurred in northeastern Asia (i.e., Korea and Japan), and the strength and coverage of heatwaves were much weaker and smaller, respectively, compared to 2022. In comparison, the linkage with the central China heatwave in 2022 was a more special characteristic. Figure 4a, b shows Hovmöller diagrams (averaged over 25°−35°N) of anomalous T2m and precipitation in 2022, respectively. The flooding in Pakistan (63°–73°E) was accompanied by a negative T2m anomaly (90°–120°E). In contrast, an opposite situation occurred in central China. The correlation coefficient between PKT rainfall and central China T2m (25°–35°N, 90°–120°E) indices is 0.44 ( P  < 0.01) during 1979–2021.

a Hovmöller diagram of daily 2-m temperature (T2m, shading; unit: °C) anomaly (with 3-day moving mean) averaged over 25°–35°N during June–August 2022. b Same as ( a ), but for precipitation (PR, shading; unit: mm day –1 ). c Regression coefficients of July–August averaged T2m (shading) on the normalized PKT index during 1979–2021. Black dots indicate the regression coefficients exceeding 90% confidence level based on Student’s t test. d Same as ( c ), but for precipitation (shading) and 500-hPa geopotential height (contour; interval: 1.5). Shadings and slashed regions indicate the regression coefficients exceed 90% confidence level based on Student’s t test.

In the subsequent analysis, we regressed T2m, precipitation, and geopotential height in the Eurasian continent upon the July–August average rainfall index over Pakistan (Fig. 4c, d ). A teleconnection pattern of the temperature and geopotential height, extending from Europe to East Asia, reveals that the Pakistan rainfall was significantly correlated with the T2m and geopotential height fluctuations in central China and northeastern Europe, where heatwaves occurred in 2022. Specifically, the PKT rainfall index was temporally correlated with averaged T2m and H500 over central China (25°–35°N, 90°–120°E; T2m: cc = 0.44, P  < 0.01; H500: cc = 0.57, P  < 0.0001) and northeastern Europe (60°–70°N, 40°–60°E; T2m: cc = 0.33, P  < 0.05; H500: cc = 0.28, P  < 0.1). Notably, the T2m in central China was highly correlated with the spatially-based heatwave index (see “Methods”; cc = 0.79, P  < 0.0001), which also showed a significant correlation with the PKT rainfall (cc = 0.39, P  < 0.01). In addition, the rainfall in Pakistan was significantly correlated with negative precipitation anomalies in central China and with positive anomalies in South Asia and northern China. The teleconnection pattern shows a close resemblance to observed anomalies in 2022, indicating that the connection between climate anomalies in Europe and Asia in 2022 did not occur coincidentally; instead, it has existed for more than four decades but emerged more strongly in 2022.

We further investigated whether the observed anomalies simply reflected a known teleconnection pattern. The first possibility is the Scandinavia (SCA) pattern 29 , 30 , which has previously been reported to influence the heatwaves in northeast Asia 31 (Supplementary Fig. 9a ). However, the high-latitude anomalies (with positive anomaly centered ~50°E and negative anomaly centered ~100°E) in 2022 (Fig. 1c ) exhibit an eastward shift compared with the SCA pattern (with positive anomaly centered ~20°E and negative anomaly centered ~80°E), and the SCA pattern shows no significant correlation with Pakistan rainfall (cc = –0.08, P  = 0.60). Another candidate is the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern (Supplementary Fig. 9b ), which occurred in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer 32 . While the CGT is also significantly correlated with Pakistan rainfall (cc = 0.41, P  < 0.01), its spatial structure differs from that of the 2022 event and the long-term regression shown in Fig. 4d . For example, the wave-like pattern of the CGT upstream of Pakistan is shifted westward by about 50° longitude compared to the 2022 anomaly (Fig. 1c ) and the regressed pattern (Fig. 4d ). In addition, we noted some similarities between the regression pattern and the British–Okhotsk Corridor (BOC) pattern 33 . However, there are distinct differences, such as the shorter wavelength (or spatial scale) and the northward shift of the negative anomaly toward Siberia in the BOC pattern compared to the PKT regression pattern. A series of calculation of 25-year sliding correlation, anomaly pattern correlation coefficient, and comparison of pattern characteristics with the BOC were conducted. Whereas the relevance between the two cannot be entirely ruled out, the comparison did not yield the conclusion that the PKT regression pattern was the reflection of the BOC. Our study reveals that the CGT, Scandinavia, and BOC pattern could not clearly explain the PKT pattern. Whether it is an emerging pattern having increasing influences on Pakistan and China precipitation is noteworthy and warrants further investigation.

Analysis of wave activity flux 34 revealed an extratropical stationary Rossby wave-like perturbation in July and August. In July, the wave-like perturbation primarily propagated its energy eastward in high latitudes (Fig. 5a ). By contrast, the perturbation in August originated from the Europe blocking, propagated southeastward to central Asia and central China, and then turned northeastward toward the extratropical North Pacific (Fig. 5b ). Positive stream function anomalies (i.e., blocking or ridges) were associated with heatwaves in Europe and China, while negative anomalies (i.e., deepened troughs) were associated with third monsoon surge, contributing approximately half of Pakistan rainfall. Whereas the wave-like pattern in July exhibited different characteristics, perturbations similar to that in August, and a regression pattern did exist in early July during the first rainfall surge (e.g., 5–11 July, Supplementary Fig. 2 ). The regression pattern prevailed persistent through August but appeared more transiently in July. As a result, the monthly mean in July exhibited different distributions. These findings indicate that the heatwaves and flooding in 2022 were linked by anomalous Rossby wave-like activity, in August and in certain period of July when heavy rainfall occurred in Pakistan.

a July 1st to 31st averaged anomalous 200-hPa Rossby wave source (shading; unit: 10 –11  s –2 ), stream function (contour; unit:10 6  m 2  s –1 ; interval: 3) and wave activity flux (vectors; unit: m 2  s –2 ; minimum vector: 25). b Same as ( a ), but for August 1st to 31st.

A recent study has also reported the importance of Rossby wave-like teleconnection in linking Pakistan (western South Asia) and China (East Asia) 1 . This study argued that the anomalous upper-level anticyclone associated with the China heatwave creates an easterly anomaly in its southern flank. This easterly flow, exceptionally strong and reversing the climatological westerly flow in the subtropical Tibetan Plateau, corresponds to anomalous ascending and descending motions in the eastern (Pakistan) and western (China) Tibetan Plateau, respectively. The observed ascending (descending) motion aligns with the anomalous rainfall (heatwave) in Pakistan (China). This interpretation however did not reveal causality. Our simulation partially supported this argument by demonstrating that the diabatic heating over Pakistan, likely in response to upstream wave activity from Europe, can induce an anticyclonic anomaly over central and southwest China, thereby sustaining the ridging activity and heatwave in China (Supplementary Fig. 5b ). However, the model response exhibits a low-level westerly anomaly south of the Tibetan Plateau, consistent with the near-field baroclinic vertical structure response. This suggests a weakening effect on the observed low-level easterly flow, which is more likely associated with the typical equivalent barotropic vertical structure of extratropical perturbations.

Supplementary Fig. 5 also indicates that excessive precipitation in Pakistan can enhance the observed anticyclonic anomaly over China, Pakistan, and the Middle East, and also the southwesterly flow in the Arabian Sea. This result suggests that whereas the Pakistan heavy rainfall was induced by compounding effects of several influencing factors, its excessive heating could have positive feedback to further enhance the observed anomalies and heavy rainfall itself. The 2022 Pakistan flooding seemed to be a result of complicated and intertwined large-scale features and local heating that interacted rigorously. Further comprehensive investigations, employing carefully designed numerical experiments, are necessary to precisely identify the underlying physical processes.

In this study, we investigated the causes of the record rainfall in Pakistan during the boreal summer of 2022 and its linkage to the heatwaves in Europe and China. The record rainfall event was characterized by three distinct monsoon surges, which involved the northward propagation of deep convection from the Arabian Sea. Our analysis revealed that multiple large-scale factors contributed to the occurrence of these extreme rainfall events, as schematically illustrated in Fig. 6 . The compounding effects of influencing factors were similar to those identified for the 2010 Pakistan flooding. It could be viewed as an intensified manifestation of the 2010 Pakistan flooding event under a warming trend.

(1) La Niña enhanced the WNPSH and the low-level easterly anomalies (black arrows). (2) Tropical–extratropical interaction: Europe blocking-associated cold-dry northerly wind (blue dotted arrows) converged with the warm-wet southerly flow (red dotted arrows) over Pakistan. The H-L-H indicates the high-level atmospheric teleconnection pattern linking Europe and China heatwaves and Pakistan flooding, which appeared persistently in August and more transiently in July when heavy rainfall occurred in Pakistan. (3) Enhanced southerly from the Arabian Sea, which was intensified by an upward trend in recent decades (yellow large arrow under red dotted arrows). (4) Topographic lifting effect (black arrows with upward curve) intensified upward motion over Pakistan. The gray-filled triangles represent mountains.

The unusually strong easterly anomaly induced by La Niña over the northern Indian subcontinent, along with an enhanced southerly flow from the Arabian Sea (which was further amplified by an upward trend), resulting in a strong convergence of moisture flux, promoting the development of intense convection and heavy rainfall. The third and prolonged surge in August was particularly influenced by the interaction between an unusually warm-moist southerly flow from the Arabian Sea and an extratropical cold-dry northerly anomaly associated with upstream Europe blocking. Furthermore, the tropical–extratropical interaction played a significant role, contributing approximately 50% of the total rainfall during the third surge.

It is important to note that these contributing factors generally occur independently and rarely coincide simultaneously, which explains the infrequency of such extreme events. We argue that only when these compounding factors occur concurrently can they lead to the manifestation of extreme events 26 . As demonstrated in Fig. 7 , the proposed factors, including the anomalous mid-upper geopotential heights in Europe and central China, the 850-hPa meridional moisture flux over the Arabian Sea, the easterly winds over the northern Indian subcontinent, and the sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region, synchronized and reached unusually high values in 2022, setting it apart from other years. This was also the case in the 2010 Pakistan flooding event, as well as in the extremely dry 1987 when all factors synchronized in a negative phase.

The stacked bars (refer to left y axis) are normalized indices of 500-hPa geopotential height (H500) averaged over Central China (CC; 25°–35°N, 90°–120°E; yellow), H500 averaged over Northeastern Europe (NEU; 55°–70°N, 35°–60°E; orange), 850-hPa meridional moisture flux (Vq850) over Arabian Sea (AS; 5°–20°N, 55°–70°E; light gray), zonal wind (U850) over northern Indian subcontinent (NI; 20°–30°N, 70°–90°E; blue), and sea surface temperature (SST) in Niño3.4 region (N34; 5°S–5°N, 170°–120°W; deep gray). Note that NI and N34 indices were multiplied by “–1”. The black solid and dashed lines (refer to right y axis) are normalized indices of precipitation (PR; from GPCP) and land-only precipitation (PR-land; from CRU) averaged over Pakistan (PKT; 22°–32°N, 63°–73°E), respectively.

Notably, the SSTA in the Niño3/Niño3.4 regions exhibited fluctuations throughout the period of 2020–2022, with the July–August averaged SSTA in these regions being relatively weaker and more confined to the east in 2021 compared to 2022 and 2020 (not shown). This likely limited the impact of the 2021 La Niña on the rainfall in Pakistan, in contrast to the impacts observed in 2022 and 2020. Furthermore, a noteworthy difference in the SSTA of 2022, as compared to those in 2020 and 2021, was the westward shift of negative and stronger SSTA. This westward shift was more influential in 2022 than in the other 2 years.

The concurrence of flooding in Pakistan and the heatwave in central China suggests a potential mutual enhancement between wet and dry extremes. Our analysis supports this hypothesis by revealing a potential positive feedback between the two extremes (Fig. 4 and Supplementary Fig. 5 ). Specifically, the ascending motion associated with flooding in Pakistan and the descending motion associated with the heatwave in China were coupled.

Numerical experiments indicate that the anomalous rainfall in Pakistan may trigger an upper-level anticyclone downstream, strengthening the anticyclone associated with the China heatwave. Conversely, the upper-level anticyclonic anomaly associated with the heatwave exhibited an equivalent barotropic structure, with an associated easterly anomaly extending from the upper troposphere to the lower troposphere (not shown). This easterly anomaly was suggested to be correlated with the ascending motion in Pakistan 1 . However, the specific feedback processes between the China heatwave and Pakistan rainfall remain unclear and require further investigation.

The equivalent barotropic vertical structure is typical for extratropical Rossby wave-like perturbations, suggesting the extratropical origin of the anomalous anticyclone as part of the teleconnection pattern shown in Fig. 4d . The compounding effect of extratropical and La Niña-associated perturbations, with the upper-level components over central China potentially further enhanced by diabatic heating over Pakistan, contributes to the complexity of the interaction. However, the exact nature of how the China heatwave influences the Pakistan rainfall remains uncertain and warrants additional research.

The regression analysis and wave activity flux revealed a teleconnection between the Europe blocking, flooding in Pakistan, and the heatwave in China, which is mediated by a stationary Rossby wave-like pattern. This wave-like structure is distinct from the SCA and CGT patterns. We noted some similarities between this wav-like structure and the BOC pattern 4 . However, some substantial differences were identified. It remains uncertain whether these patterns are precisely the same. Further investigation is required. The occurrence of climate extremes in Europe, Pakistan, and China, similar to the 2022 event, may become more frequent if this wave-like pattern becomes more active in the future, particularly under warmer conditions. Further investigation is needed to understand the mechanism driving this wave-like pattern and its potential impacts on climate extremes across the Eurasian continent.

It has been reported that weather and climate extreme events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity as a result of a warming climate 35 , 36 . Our findings suggest that the record rainfall observed in Pakistan in 2022 may be a footprint of a warming climate. The enhanced southwesterly flow over the Arabian Sea, which played a critical role in facilitating strong moisture flux convergence, and this enhancement can be attributed to recent trends. Under an extreme warming climate, further investigation is needed to understand the potential changes in the southwesterly flow over the Arabian Sea and its possible impact on tropical–extratropical interaction and extreme weather events in these regions.

We used the daily precipitation data (with horizontal resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°) from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Unified-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation 37 and monthly precipitation data (with horizontal resolution of 2.5° × 2.5°) from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project 38 (GPCP; version 2.3) and Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series 39 (CRU; version ts4.07). We utilized the ERA5 daily and monthly data 40 , including horizontal winds, geopotential height, and specific humidity, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in diagnostics. The original horizontal resolution of ERA5 data is 0.25° × 0.25°. For consistency of calculation and coordination of figures, we regridded the ERA5 data to a horizontal resolution of 2.5° × 2.5°. In addition, we used monthly sea surface temperature data (with horizontal resolution of 2° × 2°) of the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature 41 (ERSST, version 5) and daily interpolated outgoing longwave (OLR) radiation data (with horizontal resolution of 2.5° × 2.5°) of NOAA 42 .

Blocking index

Blocking index 43 was calculated to identify atmospheric blocking that often accompanies prolonged heatwaves. For the Northern Hemisphere, the blocking index (BI) was defined based on the 500-hPa geopotential height gradient south:

where Z is 500-hPa geopotential height, λ and φ is longitude and latitude, respectively. A blocking is identified at a given longitude and a specific time when at least one value of Δ satisfy that BI > 0 (units: m/degree latitude).

Heatwave index

We first calculated the value of 95th percentile of daily averaged 2-m temperature at each grid during 1979–2022. The heatwave index was then defined as the total number of grids exceeding the 95th percentile in the 20°N–40°N, 80°E–120°E region.

Statistical test of correlation coefficient

The Fisher’s Z-transformation was used for the statistical test of the Pearson correlation coefficient.

Regression analysis

We calculated regression coefficients to estimate the relationship between two monthly mean time series. The linear regression model is expressed as Y i  =  α  +  βX i  +  ε , where X i and Y i are variables being examined, α is the intercept, β is the slope (regression coefficient), and ε is the residual.

Percentile rank

The percentile rank is expressed as a whole number between 1 and 99 and is used to evaluate the precipitation intensity and T2m as the percentage of scores in a reference group that is lower than a given score of interest.

Idealized heating experiments

We used the LBM to conduct idealized heating experiments 44 . The model was forced by an idealized heating over Pakistan (centering at 29°N, 68°E) to simulate atmospheric responses in the August climatological background flow. The 200- and 850-hPa geopotential heights and horizontal winds from the day-30 output were analyzed.

Data availability

The CPC and GPCP precipitation data were provided by NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their websites at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc.globalprecip.html and https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html , respectively. The ERA5 reanalysis data was obtained from Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) and is available at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-pressure-levels-monthly-means?tab=form . The ERSST sea surface data was from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html . The NOAA interpolated outgoing longwave radiation data was from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.olrcdr.interp.html .

Code availability

All the computer codes used to generate the results and figures in this study are available from the authors upon request. All figures were generated by using the MATLAB and Statistics Toolbox Release 2021b version 9.11.0.1769968 with the M_MAP mapping package version 1.4 m ( https://www.eoas.ubc.ca/~rich/map.html ), and the NCAR Command Language (NCL) ( https://www.ncl.ucar.edu/ ) version 6.3.0.

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Acknowledgements

This study was in memory of Dr. Masao Kanamitsu, who gave C.-C.H. a crucial push in his first research visit. This study was supported by the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC), Taiwan (R.O.C.), under grant numbers 109-2111-M-845-001, 110-2111-M-845-001, 111-2625-M-845-001, and 111-2811-M-001-093. The authors are grateful to the National Center for High-Performance Computing (NCHC), National Applied Research Laboratories (NARLabs) for providing computer facilities. This manuscript was edited by Wallace Academic Editing.

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C.-C.H. and H.-H.H. conceptualized the study. A.-Y.H. and C.-C.C. contributed to data analysis. W.-L.T. conducted model experiments. C.-C.H. prepared the first draft, H.-H.H. provided critical suggestions in revision, and A.-Y.H. and M.-M.L. participated in revision. All authors contributed to review and improve the manuscript and approve the final manuscript.

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Hong, CC., Huang, AY., Hsu, HH. et al. Causes of 2022 Pakistan flooding and its linkage with China and Europe heatwaves. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6 , 163 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00492-2

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Pakistan: Flood Damages and Economic Losses Over USD 30 billion and Reconstruction Needs Over USD 16 billion - New Assessment

Post-disaster needs assessment calls for urgent support to implement a recovery and reconstruction that ‘builds back better’.

ISLAMABAD, October 28, 2022 - A damage, loss, and needs assessment following the unprecedented floods in Pakistan calls for ‘ building back better ’, based on the principles of the poor first , transparency, inclusion, and climate resilience. The assessment estimates total damages to exceed USD 14.9 billion, and total economic losses to reach about USD 15.2 billion. Estimated needs for rehabilitation and reconstruction in a resilient way are at least USD 16.3 billion , not including much needed new investments beyond the affected assets, to support Pakistan’s adaptation to climate change and overall resilience of the country to future climate shocks.

Housing ; Agriculture and Livestock ; and Transport and Communications sectors suffered the most significant damage, at USD 5.6 billion, USD 3.7 billion, and USD 3.3 billion, respectively. Sindh is the worst affected province with close to 70 percent of total damages and losses, followed by Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Punjab.

The Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives led the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) , which was conducted jointly with the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the European Union (EU), the United Nations agencies with technical facilitation by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the World Bank. The PDNA, in addition to estimating damages, economic losses and recovery and reconstruction needs, also assesses broader macro-economic and human impacts and recommends principles along which to develop a comprehensive recovery and reconstruction framework.

The floods affected 33 million people and more than 1730 lost their lives . They are particularly impacting the poorest and most vulnerable districts. The situation is still evolving, with flood waters stagnant in many areas, causing water-borne and vector-borne diseases to spread, and more than 8 million displaced people now facing a health crisis . The crisis thus risks having profound and lasting impacts on lives and livelihoods. Loss of household incomes, assets, rising food prices, and disease outbreaks are impacting the most vulnerable groups. Women have suffered notable losses of their livelihoods, particularly those associated with agriculture and livestock.

The PDNA Human Impact Assessment highlights that the national poverty rate may increase by 3.7 to 4.0 percentage points, potentially pushing between 8.4 and 9.1 million more people below the poverty line .

Multidimensional poverty can potentially increase by 5.9 percentage points, implying that an additional 1.9 million households are at risk of being pushed into non-monetary poverty.

Compounding the existing economic difficulties facing the country, the 2022 floods are expected to have a significant adverse impact on output, which will vary substantially by region and sector. Loss in gross domestic product (GDP) as a direct impact of the floods is projected to be around 2.2 percent of FY22 GDP . The agriculture sector is projected to contract the most, at 0.9 percent of GDP. The damage and losses in agriculture will have spillover effects on the industry, external trade and services sectors.

The Government is providing immediate relief to the impacted communities and supporting the early recovery, while aiming to ensure macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability. Moving forward, as recovery and reconstruction spending rises, the loss in output could be mitigated. Yet, significant international support will be needed to complement Pakistan’s own commitment to increase domestic revenue mobilization and save scarce public resources, and to reduce the risk of exacerbating macroeconomic imbalances. 

Although the early loss and damage estimates may increase as the situation is continuously evolving on the ground, the PDNA lays the groundwork for an agenda for recovery and reconstruction that is designed to build back a better future for the most affected people in Pakistan . While the recovery will require massive efforts for the rehabilitation and reconstruction of damaged infrastructure, buildings and livelihoods, it will also be an opportunity to strengthen institutions and governance structures.

The report puts forth recommendations for developing a comprehensive recovery framework. While the primary focus will be on the affected areas, such framework presents an opportunity to embed systemic resilience to natural hazards and climate change in Pakistan’s overall development planning. This tragic disaster can be a turning point, where climate resilience and adaptation, increased domestic revenue mobilization and better public spending, and public policies and investments better targeted to the most vulnerable populations; all figure at the core of policy making going forward .

In the short term, targeted mechanisms such as social assistance and emergency cash transfers, provision of emergency health services, and programs to restore shelter and restart local economic activities, particularly in agriculture, should be prioritized. Reconstruction and rehabilitation should rest on key principles of: participatory, transparent, inclusive, and green recovery for long-term resilience—“ building back better ”; pro-poor, pro-vulnerable, and gender sensitive, targeting the most affected; strong coordination of government tiers and implementation by the lowest appropriate level; synergies between humanitarian effort and recovery; and a sustainable financing plan .

Given Pakistan’s limited fiscal resources, significant international support and private investment will be essential for a comprehensive and resilient recovery. The Pakistani authorities are committed to accelerate reforms to generate additional domestic fiscal resources and improve efficiency and targeting of public spending. Beyond the immediate needs of floods reconstruction, these reforms, while protecting the most vulnerable, will be important to generate fiscal space to invest more broadly into more climate-resilient infrastructure and adaptation to climate change, as well as to build buffers to face future shocks, while addressing macroeconomic imbalances. This commitment of the Government will also be key to mobilize further international support as well as to unlock private sector sources of financing—both of which will be absolutely critical to face the current climate change-induced shock.

The ADB, the EU, the UNDP and the World Bank are fully committed to working with the Government and people of Pakistan during the ensuing recovery phase, and to increase the country’s climate resilience.

• World Bank Mariam Altaf Tel : +92 (51) 9090000 [email protected]

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Mapping Flood Exposure, Damage, and Population Needs Using Remote and Social Sensing: A Case Study of 2022 Pakistan Floods

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• Haseeb M Tahir Z Mehmood S Gill S Farooq N Butt H Iftikhar A Maqsood A Abdullah-Al-Wadud M Tariq A (2024) Enhancing Carbon Sequestration through Afforestation: Evaluating the Impact of Land Use and Cover Changes on Carbon Storage Dynamics Earth Systems and Environment 10.1007/s41748-024-00414-z Online publication date: 15-Jun-2024 https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-024-00414-z
• Fereshtehpour M Esmaeilzadeh M Alipour R Burian S (2024) Impacts of DEM type and resolution on deep learning-based flood inundation mapping Earth Science Informatics 10.1007/s12145-024-01239-0 17 :2 (1125-1145) Online publication date: 7-Feb-2024 https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-024-01239-0

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In a First Study of Pakistan’s Floods, Scientists See Climate Change at Work

A growing field called attribution science is helping researchers rapidly assess the links between global warming and weather disasters.

By Raymond Zhong

Pakistan began receiving abnormally heavy rain in mid-June, and, by late August, drenching downpours were declared a national emergency. The southern part of the Indus River , which traverses the length of the country, became a vast lake. Villages have become islands , surrounded by putrid water that stretches to the horizon. More than 1,500 people have died. Floodwaters could take months to recede.

The deluges were made worse by global warming caused by greenhouse-gas emissions, scientists said Thursday, drawing upon a fast-growing field of research that gauges the influence of climate change on specific extreme weather events soon after they occur — and while societies are still dealing with their shattering consequences.

As climate scientists’ techniques improve, they can assess, with ever-greater confidence and specificity, how human-induced changes in Earth’s chemistry are affecting the severe weather outside our windows, adding weight and urgency to questions about how nations should adapt.

The floods in Pakistan are the deadliest in a recent string of eye-popping weather extremes across the Northern Hemisphere: relentless droughts in the Horn of Africa , Mexico and China ; flash floods in West and Central Africa , Iran and the inland United States ; searing heat waves in India , Japan , California , Britain and Europe .

Scientists have warned for decades that some kinds of extreme weather are becoming more frequent and intense as more heat-trapping gases get pumped into the atmosphere. As the planet warms, more water evaporates from the oceans. Hotter air also holds more moisture. So storms like those that come with the South Asian monsoon can pack a bigger punch.

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2010 pakistan floods response - final evaluation report.

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In July and August 2010, Pakistan experienced its worst flooding in living memory. Four provinces, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan were hit hard. An estimated 2000 people died and 14-18 million more were left in desperate need of assistance. The members of the Humanitarian Coalition (HC), a network of Canadian NGOs determined to unite in cases of humanitarian crises, began life-saving responses almost immediately. The HC launched a joint national appeal to raise awareness about the disaster and rally Canadians to support the disaster.

The members of the HC are currently: CARE Canada, Oxfam Canada, Oxfam-Québec, Plan Canada and Save the Children Canada. Although Plan Canada was not yet a member at the time of the Pakistan disaster, Plan was engaged in emergency response there and has therefore been included in this report.

The objective of coordination was to avoid duplication in aid activities. Important elements such as coverage, vulnerability analysis and targeting, accountability to beneficiaries and standardization of the assistance were not addressed through formal coordination. HC members appeared to be more coordinated within donor-imposed consortia in which agencies worked closely together sharing a common logical framework, objectives, delivery and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) modalities.

In order to ensure emergency response programs are as effective as possible, and to uphold the HC’s commitment to accountability and transparency, evaluations of the members’ response programs have been conducted. The first, a short-term Real Time Review, was conducted in February 2011. This was followed by a comprehensive evaluation in November 2011. This report presents the findings and recommendations of those evaluations.

This evaluation was conducted according to the HC Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) framework. Two teams with staff from the member organizations and accompanied by an impartial consultant interviewed beneficiaries, partners and HC members’ staff in KPK, the Punjab, Sindh and Islamabad. Interviews with key informants and response documentation completed the evaluation. CARE, Oxfam Great Britain, Oxfam Novib, Plan Pakistan and Save the Children participated in the evaluation.

Considering the scale of the disaster and the complex Pakistan security environment, the HC members have made tremendous efforts to respond effectively. The HC members focused on their ability to deliver assistance, the establishment of effective monitoring and evaluation systems, the attention paid to beneficiary-oriented accountability, and applying lessons learned from evaluations and feedback.

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Heavy Rains and Dry Lands Don’t Mix: Reflections on the 2010 Pakistan Flood

Each summer, monsoon rains sweep across southwestern Asia, soaking India and Bangladesh. In nearby Pakistan, the rains are usually less intense, more intermittent, and centered in the northeast.

Flooding forced millions of Pakistanis to flee their homes in July and August 2010. ( Photograph ©2010 Abdul Majeed Goraya/ IRIN. )

The summer of 2010 was different. In July and August, rain fell over most of Pakistan and persisted in some places for weeks. The Pakistan Meteorological Department reported nationwide rain totals 70 percent above normal in July and 102 percent above normal in August.

Rivers rose rapidly, and the Indus and its tributaries in the northern part of the country soon pushed over their banks. As the surge of water moved south, it swelled the Indus in Pakistan’s central and southern provinces. Then the problems started compounding. In Sindh, a dam failure sent the river streaming down an alternative channel west of the valley. The resulting floodwater lake—which merged with existing Manchhar Lake—spread over hundreds of square kilometers.

Floods covered at least 37,280 square kilometers (14,390 square miles) of Pakistan at some time between July 28 and September 16, 2010. Relief agencies used maps derived from satellite data to direct aid to many of the victims and to plan recovery efforts. (Map by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon, using data from UNOSAT. )

Even after the monsoon rains subsided, waters retreated much more slowly than they had advanced. Months after the rains stopped, crops, homes, businesses, and entire towns were still submerged. In some places, there were few means of water dispersal beyond waiting for it to evaporate.

The U.S. Agency for International Development estimates that the Pakistan floods affected more than 18 million people, caused 1,985 deaths, and damaged or destroyed 1.7 million houses. It was perhaps the worst flood in Pakistan’s modern history.

Relentless Rain

The Asian monsoon is one of the world’s most studied weather patterns. Sunlight warms the land surfaces of Central Asia, and the warm surface air rises into the atmosphere. This updraft draws in cooler, moister air from over the Indian Ocean. The Himalayas supercharge this convection process by blocking air masses from migrating into central Asia. Instead, the moist air masses rise, cool, and condense the water into rain.

In 2010, this pattern went awry over Pakistan. Over and over again, the rainstorms dwarfed the heaviest rainfall events from the previous, more typical summer. July rainfall in Peshawar, for instance, was up 772 percent from normal, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department. August rainfall in Khanpur was up 1,483 percent.

The 2010 floods in Pakistan were caused by extremely high rainfall in the Indus River watershed during July and August. These maps show the satellite estimates of the difference in rainfall between 2010 and the long-term average for the region. (Maps by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon, using data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. )

The relentless rain had a handful of causes. For one, the global La Niña event—which drenched Australia and other Pacific and Indian Ocean locations in late 2010 and early 2011—actually started around the time of the 2010 monsoon. La Niña warms both water and air masses, increasing the amount of moisture that can be carried in the atmosphere.

While La Niña increased the chance of rain events, it did not necessarily increase the intensity and unusual persistence. Instead, some meteorologists speculated in late 2010 that the jet stream might have set the stage for floods in Pakistan, as well as the summer of drought and fire in Russia. Some noted in science meetings that the jet stream had taken on an unusual pattern, stretching down over the Eurasian continent and stagnating the weather patterns.

A long-lived high-pressure system north of the Black Sea trapped hot air over Russia in 2010, and triggered heavy rainfall over Pakistan. This image shows water vapor in the atmosphere (left) and thermal infrared emissions of the Earth (right). Water is bright in the left image; on the right, dark areas are hot (desert in mid-day) and cold areas (cloud tops) are white. The animation shows the interaction between high-level flow of water vapor and the dynamics of clouds. (NASA image by Robert Simmon, using data ©2010 EUMETSAT. )

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In a subsequent study (in press) using NASA satellite data, scientists William Lau and Kyu-Myong Kim of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center found a connection between the wildfires and floods. The Russian heat wave and wildfires were associated with a large-scale, stagnant weather pattern in the atmosphere—known as a blocking event—that prevented the normal movement of weather systems from west to east. Hot, dry air masses became trapped over large parts of Russia.

The blocking also created unusual downstream vortices and wind patterns. Clockwise atmospheric circulation near the surface brought cold, dry Siberian air into the subtropics, where it clashed with the warm, moist air being transported northward with the monsoon flow. The result was torrential rain in northern Pakistan.

Although the heat wave started before the floods, both events attained maximum strength at approximately the same time. Lau’s team concluded that Pakistan’s floods were triggered by the southward penetration of upper level disturbances from the atmospheric blocking, and amplified by heating and monsoon moisture from the Bay of Bengal. La Niña conditions made the tropics more receptive by providing abundant moisture.

The high pressure system over Russia was a type of blocking event, a persistent pattern in the jet stream. This map shows areas of relatively high pressure (red) and low pressure (blue) from July 25 to August 8, 2010. The map data were derived from a reanalysis—estimates of meteorological data based on a blend of actual measurements and computer models. (Map by Jesse Allen and Mike Bosilovich, using data from MERRA. )

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Most of the time Pakistan usually suffers from too little water, not too much. So were the 2010 floods a sign of things to come?

“One event by itself is not evidence of a long-term shift,” says Peter Clift, a geologist from the University of Aberdeen (Scotland) who has studied the Indian monsoon. “Floods have happened in the past without global warming.”

Still, a longer, stormier monsoon season may be part of Pakistan’s future, if current climate predictions hold true.

Human Factors

The heavy, persistent rain would have been a challenge for Pakistanis under any circumstance. Human activities, however, probably made them worse than nature alone could have.

Vegetation naturally reduces the risk of flooding by soaking up precipitation, so almost every time humans remove trees, shrubs, and plants from the landscape, they increase the risk of floods. Decades of deforestation in Pakistan, (PDF) particularly in the Swat Valley, have left the landscape less able to absorb moisture.

Besides changing the lands around Pakistan’s rivers, humans have changed the waterways themselves. Most of the water in the upper Indus River basin runs down from glaciers in the Himalaya and Karakoram mountain ranges. Since the flow is not always sufficient to meet the needs of people downstream, dams, levees, and channels have been built to divert water for irrigation and to hold on to the sparse precipitation that the region usually receives.

Construction—including dams, roads, and canals—can divert water from its natural path. This can exacerbate flooding, or cause water to pool in areas without an outlet, sometimes for months. ( Photograph courtesy Defense Video & Imagery Distribution System. )

Kuntala Lahiri-Dutt, a social geographer at the Australian National University, notes that while many of the diversions from the Indus River probably date back to the British colonial days, increasing amounts of river water have been diverted for irrigation in recent decades. Many property owners also have erected their own embankments and levees in the name of flood protection.

The majority of this irrigation infrastructure has not necessarily been well maintained over the years, says Dath Mita of the U.S. Foreign Agricultural Service. “The Pakistan irrigation and levee system is very extensive—not just large structures lined with concrete, but also channels that farmers have dug on their own land,” he says. “A system like that needs sustained maintenance, and because of accumulation of silt deposits over the years, the channels probably had a lower capacity to move water.”

As Lahiri-Dutt wrote in September 2010:

Each human interference into a natural river system has its consequence: when excessive amounts of water are drawn out of its channel, a river channel becomes less efficient and loses its ability to quickly move the water. When levees are built along the banks, the sediments get deposited on the riverbed, which gradually rises above the surrounding plains. Not only does this enhance the flood risk, the levees standing as walls also make it difficult for the floodwater to return back into the channel once it has spilled over.

Hence, there were manmade bottlenecks where water could pool whether people wanted it or not, notes Clift. In 2010, structures that were initially ineffective in containing the surge of rainwater eventually turned out to be very effective at holding it in the wrong places.

Some parts of Pakistan remained under water for months after the rains subsided. These false-color satellite images show flood water (blue) in western Sindh province in September 2010, November 2010, and January 2011. It is apparent that roads and other infrastructure constrained the flow of flood water. (NASA images by Robert Simmon, using data from Landsat 5. )

“Flooding this severe would be hard for anybody to manage,” Clift adds. “The grim reality is that, over the long term, Pakistan is a really dry place. Most of the time, they need that water infrastructure.”

Indeed, as flooding swamped areas along the Indus River, dust storms blew through the western reaches of Pakistan and in Afghanistan.

The Aftermath

The effects of the 2010 monsoon season in Pakistan were both immediate and lasting. Waterborne diseases such as cholera menaced flood survivors, while stagnant pools of water provided the perfect breeding conditions for malaria-carrying mosquitoes. Crowded relief camps and poor sanitation helped spread diseases such as measles.

Flood waters in Pakistan’s Sindh Province had not fully receded as late as December 2010. Some refugees had nowhere to go, so they camped by their inundated fields. ( Photograph ©2010 UK Department for International Development/Russell Watkins.)

David Petley, a landslide specialist from Durham University (U.K), was already keeping an eye on the Hunza landslide when the monsoon rains provoked him to start chronicling Pakistan’s unusual monsoon.

“It is hard to remember a previous flood that has caused this type of impact over such a long period, including the way it prevented replanting and reconstruction,” Petley states. Early news reports described the floods as Pakistan’s worst since 1929, “but this event was worse by almost every measure.”

In some parts of Pakistan, especially Sindh Province, flood waters lingered for months on some of the country’s best farmland. The standing water and excess soil moisture had good and bad consequences.

Pakistan has two main growing seasons, with farmers typically growing cotton and rice from May to November (Kharif season) and wheat from November to May (Rabi season). According to estimates by the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, almost 10 percent of the country’s cotton crop was flooded, as was about one-fifth of the rice crop. The excessively wet conditions also delayed the planting of wheat in some areas, but Pakistani farmers were able to extend cotton harvesting later in the growing season.

In areas where the floods receded, Pakistanis were quick to plant crops. These rice fields in Sindh Province were almost ready for harvest on December 7, 2010. ( Photograph ©2010 UK Department for International Development/Russell Watkins.)

“The good news is that Pakistan’s staple food is wheat, and by the time the serious flood events occurred, the harvest was complete and the majority of the grain was in storage,” says Mita. This lessens the blow to national food security. “Rice is a big crop, but it’s mostly for export.” He expects the excess moisture will benefit the next wheat crop, which is heavily dependent on irrigation.

Petley notes that for many flood victims, the worst consequence was the loss of livestock, “a major asset and the source of everything from milk to biogas to the power to pull a plow.”

He also worries about where flood survivors will find materials to rebuild. The United Nations, international agencies, and the Pakistan government have rebuilt some roads and bridges and have constructed roughly 40,000 shelters for some of Pakistan’s most vulnerable victims. But in many cases, citizens scrambling to build rudimentary shelter were forced to use inferior materials, meaning they now live in houses even more vulnerable to disaster.

In early 2011, flood waters had receded considerably, though some areas remained submerged. In March, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that standing water prevented many families from returning to their homes in parts of Sindh and Balochistan Provinces. Even in places where waters had completely receded, people returned not to homes and fields, but to places where those things used to be.

The losses left children especially vulnerable. In February 2011, UNICEF helicopters delivered clothes, blankets, and nutritional supplements to northwestern Pakistan amid harsh winter conditions, as damage from the 2010 flood and the 2005 earthquake had left many areas inaccessible by any other means. Meanwhile, the World Food Programme delivered food to an estimated 4.4 million people in January and February 2011, including nearly 40,000 malnourished children and pregnant or nursing mothers.

Although the 2010 floods in Pakistan were an unprecedented human tragedy, floods of similar extent have occurred in the past along the Indus. This photograph shows sand deposited by previous monsoon floods near Thatta, in southern Pakistan. (Photograph ©2004 Peter Clift, University of Aberdeen.)

Massive floods may seem rare on human time scales, but not on the geological calendar, notes Clift. He has studied the Asian monsoon and its history near the Indus, where he has uncovered buried layers of sandy sediment that was deposited by ancient floods. “We know that floods are not really common,” he notes, “but they’re not completely unusual either.”

“Still, I’ve not seen anything like this.”

• Abouzeid, R., Mohammad, H.J. (2010, December 9). Four months later, Pakistan still suffers from flooding. Time. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• Agence France-Presse. (2010, November 12). Up to six more months of Pakistan flood water: EU official. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• Ali, T., Shahbaz, B., Suleri, A. (2006). Analysis of myths and realities of deforestation in Northwest Pakistan: Implications for forestry extension. International Journal of Agriculture and Biology, 8(1), 107–110.
• Allbritton, C. (2011, January 26). Pakistan’s Sindh province faces acute hunger: UNICEF AlertNet. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• BBC. (2010, August 2). “2.5m people affected” by Pakistan floods officials say. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• CBS News. (2010,August 15). U.N. Chief: Pakistan floods the worst I’ve seen. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• Climate Data Processing Centre, Pakistan Meteorological Department. (2010, August 31). Pakistan’s monsoon 2010 update.
• Encyclopedia of the Nations. (n.d.) Pakistan – agriculture. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• International Development Research Centre. (2001, May 11). Forecasting water flows in Pakistan’s Indus River. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• Lahiri-Dutt, K. (2010, September 6). Special essay: Pakistan floods. Global Water Forum. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center. (2010, December 14). Flooding in Pakistan caused by higher-than-normal monsoon rainfall. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2010, September 3). The Russian heat wave of 2010. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• Tarquis, A.M., Gobin, A., Semenov, M.A. (2010). Preface. Climate Research, 44(1), 1–2.
• United Nations Integrated Regional Information Networks. (2010, November 24). Pakistan: Measles takes toll on flood victims. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• United Nations Integrated Regional Information Networks. (2010, November 25). Pakistan: Flood survivors determined to help themselves. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• United Nations Integrated Regional Information Networks. (2011, January 12). Pakistan: Shelter first or safety first? Accessed February 3, 2011.
• United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. (2010, September 17). Pakistan floods emergency response plan. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. (2010, September 17). Pakistan floods: Timeline of events. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• USAID. (2010, November 30). Pakistan – floods Accessed February 3, 2011.
• Voice of America. (2011, January 26). Malnutrition plagues Pakistani children 6 months after floods. Accessed February 3, 2011.
• World Health Organization. (2010, September 20). Floods in Pakistan: Pakistan health cluster, focus on malaria. Accessed February 3, 2011.

Atmosphere Land

• World Politics

The flooding in Pakistan is a climate catastrophe with political roots

How the flooding crisis became so awful.

by Jonathan Guyer

Flash floods over the weekend left one-third of Pakistan submerged from weeks of heavy rains, compounding an already difficult set of political and economic crises in the country.

The catastrophic flooding has affected 33 million people, about 15 percent of the population, according to Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority. More than 1,130 people have been killed since June’s monsoon season began, and at least 75 died in the past day. There has been $10 billion of damage and an estimated 1 million homes wrecked.

“There was a super flood in 2010, but this is the worst ever in the history of Pakistan,” Shabnam Baloch, the country director for Pakistan at the International Rescue Committee, told me. “The type of catastrophe we are seeing at the moment is just indescribable. I don’t even have the right words to put it in a way that people can visualize it.”

The country’s south has been most affected, notably the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan. Though some degree of flooding is common in Pakistan during monsoon season, the intensity of the rainfall this month was 780 percent above average, according to Climate Change Minister Sherry Rehman .

“More than 100 bridges and some 3,000 km of roads have been damaged or destroyed, nearly 800,000 farm animals have perished, and two million acres of crops and orchards have been hit,” the United Nations’ World Food Program noted. The scale of flooding has impeded access for emergency groups seeking to get aid to the neediest.

This calamity alone would have been disastrous. But Pakistan this year has also endured economic difficulties and a lethal heat wave that, as Vox’s Umair Irfan reported, strained public infrastructure and social services. All these crises have been exacerbated by the country’s political situation, with the government targeting the recent ousted prime minister, Imran Khan, and by the global economic plight.

“Pakistan has faced a series of crises this year: economic, political, now, a natural disaster,” Madiha Afzal, a foreign policy researcher at the Brookings Institution, told me. “Running underneath all of this has been the political crisis.”

Pakistan’s political crises, all too briefly explained

Early this year, a political crisis rattled Pakistan . While the immediate crisis was resolved, the underlying tensions remain, and if anything, have become even more polarized — creating a political conflict that may affect the way the country addresses these floods.

In April, cricket-star-turned-pseudo-populist Prime Minister Imran Khan sparked a constitutional crisis when he tried to stave off a vote of no-confidence by dissolving the Pakistani parliament. Eventually, the country’s supreme court ruled that he had acted unconstitutionally, the uproarious no-confidence vote proceeded, and he lost the prime ministership.

Since then, opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif became prime minister and has been presiding over a country hard hit by economic malaise — rising debt, a foreign currency shortage, and record inflation — deepened by the wide-ranging knock-on effects for energy and food insecurity presented by the Ukraine-Russia war.

All the while, the former prime minister has continued to hold political rallies that reinforce his street power. In turn, the government has launched a crackdown on Khan. Most recently, the police issued terrorism charges against him over a speech he delivered earlier this month. The next general election will be held in 2023, but Khan has been calling for early elections . Taken all together, it threatens to send Pakistan into an even more dangerous political phase.

It’s a serious situation, but also one that’s exacerbated and obscured the climate change-driven flood crisis.

Earlier this month, for example, Pakistan’s TV networks spent hours covering the story of an aide to Khan who had been detained on treason charges and alleged that he had been tortured in custody. “As Balochistan was being flooded — scenes and videos were rolling in from Balochistan — the government was basically concerned entirely with politics, and Khan was concerned entirely with politics,” Afzal told me.

Sharif was caught up in politics, too. “The blame in many ways falls on the state for not taking charge of, for instance, its National Disaster Management Authority, not jumping into action right away,” Afzal told me. There have been no daily press briefings, she says, and very little awareness of the scale of the flooding — until last week.

Afzal worries political tensions between the federal government and the areas affected by flooding have hampered the government’s response. The northern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, for instance, is run by Khan’s party, and Prime Minister Sharif only visited it on Monday .

For the Pakistani-British historian and activist Tariq Ali, the question is why the government has not done more to preempt the social crises that result from weather calamity. “Why has Pakistan, successive governments, military and civilian, not been able to construct a social infrastructure, a safety net for ordinary people?” he told Democracy Now . “It’s fine for the rich and the well-off. They can escape. They can leave the country. They can go to a hospital. They have enough food. But for the bulk of the country, this is not the case.”

Not just a natural disaster

It’s likely that climate change contributed to the scale of the catastrophe in Pakistan. But Ayesha Siddiqi, a geographer at the University of Cambridge who has researched Pakistan’s response to the 2010 flooding , told me that “all disasters are very much constructed, they’re constructed by society, and they’re constructed by people.”

She explained that structural inequalities, bad policy-making, and an emphasis on grand-scale infrastructure projects have made much of Pakistan woefully unprepared for the flooding.

Pakistan “has kind of famously projected this idea of, ‘We need to build large dams, and we need to build large drainage projects, and we need to show our military might through these large projects to control water,’” Siddiqi told me. But whenever there’s extreme rainfall, the water has to flow somewhere. “So then there are these pockets of water that collect in these infrastructural reservoirs and dams, etc., that has to be released. And there’s a whole range of ecological issues that have arisen.”

Pakistan can learn from that history — and the last catastrophic floods it experienced a decade ago.

The main lesson the Pakistani government learned from the 2010 floods was how to get direct cash transfers to those affected. “People always want cash after a disaster — they much prefer cash, let’s say, compared to relief goods and things like that,” Siddiqi told me. “The state has learned how to go about reaching out to people, but what the state has been far less adept at managing is the longer-term issues of, how do we rehabilitate people in the next five years, 10 years, so that they are not this vulnerable again?”

For a country mired in political turmoil and economic setbacks, coordinating this response in the immediate and longer term will undoubtedly be a challenge.

Though international assistance will not in itself address these deeper inequalities in the country, aid groups are calling for a robust international response. “Pakistan contributes less than 1 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions,” Farah Naureen, Mercy Corps’ country director for Pakistan, said in a statement . “This humanitarian catastrophe is yet another example of how countries that contribute the least to global warming are the ones that suffer the most.”

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Pakistan's 2010 Flood Crisis (Epilogue)

This multi-part case study describes the government of Pakistan’s response to the crisis of flooding that inundated a fifth of the country and displaced millions in 2010. It highlights the performance of the country’s nascent emergency management agency, and considers integration of international aid from the global humanitarian community and the U.S. military. The case aims to teach students about disaster response in a complex environment, and prompts them to consider the opportunities that can arise with close coordination between two well-resourced institutions—the United States and the Pakistani military. The case is comprised of Part A , Part B , and an Epilogue.

These cases are part of a series produced by the Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) Case Program, hosted by the HKS Strengthening Learning and Teaching Excellence (SLATE) initiative, the world’s largest producer and repository of case studies designed for teaching about how government works and how public policy is made. Each case in the series is designed to train public leaders, and introduces actual policy dilemmas along with data to equip students to learn how to apply the rigor of quantitative analysis in the real world.

This case may be purchased for a nominal fee; registered educators may obtain a free review copy. Online supplemental resources include short free documents and videos on how to teach with the case method, as well as downloadable related tip sheets and questions for class discussion.

Tannenwald D. Inundation: The Slow-Moving Crisis of Pakistan’s 2010 Floods (Epilogue). HKS Case No. 2016.1. Harvard Kennedy School Case Program 2014. http://case.hks.harvard.edu/inundation-the-slow-moving-crisis-of-pakistan-s-2010-floods-epilogue .

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Pakistan Floods of 2010

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• World Health Organisation - Pakistan Floods 2010 Early Recovery Plan for the Health Sector
• NASA - Earth Observatory - Heavy Rains and Dry Lands Don’t Mix: Reflections on the 2010 Pakistan Flood
• Pakistan Floods of 2010 - Student Encyclopedia (Ages 11 and up)

Pakistan Floods of 2010 , flooding of the Indus River in Pakistan in late July and August 2010 that led to a humanitarian disaster considered to be one of the worst in Pakistan’s history. The floods, which affected approximately 20 million people, destroyed homes, crops, and infrastructure and left millions vulnerable to malnutrition and waterborne disease. Estimates of the total number of people killed ranged from 1,200 to 2,200, while approximately 1.6 million houses were damaged or destroyed, leaving an estimated 14 million people without homes.

Record monsoon rains began to fall in Pakistan’s mountainous northwest region about July 22, causing flash floods in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa , Punjab , and Balochistan provinces. The unprecedented volume of rainwater overwhelmed flood defenses, sweeping away roads and bridges and inundating large areas of land. By August 1 at least 1,000 people had been killed by flooding and at least 1,000,000 had been forced from their homes. As the floodwaters surged downriver into Balochistan and Sindh provinces in August, rain continued to fall in the northwest. With one-fifth of Pakistan affected by mid-August, rescuers and humanitarian aid workers struggled to reach victims stranded by rising water and by extensive damage to roads and bridges.

Rescue efforts were led by the Pakistani armed forces while humanitarian aid was provided by the Pakistani government, by foreign governments including the United States , Saudi Arabia , and the United Kingdom, and by nongovernmental organizations as well as local charities, some with ties to militant Islamic groups. The Pakistani government was criticized within Pakistan for its response to the floods: many saw it as sluggish and disorganized, and the preferential treatment given to some areas was cited as evidence of governmental corruption. In early August Pres. Asif Ali Zardari furthered the perception that Pakistan’s leaders were indifferent to flood victims’ suffering when, rather than staying in the country to monitor the rescue and relief efforts, he went on a scheduled 10-day trip to Europe. By October 2010 the water levels of the Indus had largely returned to normal. Large floodwater lakes lingered in some low-lying areas until the early months of 2011.

The damage caused by the floods promised to have a long-lasting impact in Pakistan. Months after the floods had subsided, hundreds of thousands of people remained in temporary camps with inadequate sanitation and food supply. Many of the people who were most severely affected by the floods were small farmers; an estimated 5.4 million acres (2.2 million hectares) of crops were destroyed, along with an estimated 1.2 million head of livestock. The floods also devastated Pakistan’s public services and physical infrastructure, damaging or destroying more than 10,000 schools and 500 clinics and hospitals while sweeping away more than 5,000 miles (8,000 km) of railways and roads. The Pakistani government estimated that economic losses from the floods totaled $43 billion. A year after the floods, international aid from countries, humanitarian organizations, and private individuals totaled $1.3 billion.

Case Study - 2010 Pakistan floods

GloFAS demonstrated its potential by detecting a number of flooding events of the past 3 year in major world rivers, with forecast lead time often larger than 10 days A striking example is that of the severe floods that hit Pakistan in summer of 2010, triggered by exceptional monsoon rain beginning at the end of July. The flooding covered approximately one-fifth of the total land area of Pakistan, directly affecting about 20 million and causing a death toll close to 2000 people. On that occasion, forecasts on 28 July 2010 showed probabilities up to 100% of exceeding the severe alert level (i.e., 20 yr return period) in most of the Indus River basin, with peak flow traveling downstream in the first half of August 2010.

20-day ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) on 28 July 2010

It shows a 20-day ensemble streamflow prediction for a dynamic reporting point in the Indus River, few kilometers downstream the city of Sukkur, in the Sindh province of Pakistan. Forecasts show a sharp rise of discharge in the river, with expected peak of the ensemble mean on the 10 August, hence 13 days after the prediction was issued. The uncertainty range increases with the lead time, though it almost completely exceeds the severe alert level from the 8 to the 12 August.

Satellite images of the Indus River

Satellite images of the Indus River on 10 July 2010 (top) and on 11 August 2010 (bottom). Top panel also shows, with purple shadings, the maximum probability of exceeding the severe threshold in a 20-day forecast range (forecast on 28 July 2010).

Read more about the case study

Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F. GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood forecasting Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.

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• The 2022 Pakis...

The 2022 Pakistan floods

Introduction

More than one-third of Pakistan is under water due to unprecedented levels of flooding. Estimates suggest that 1,265 people have been killed, with 6,000+ injured.  

The scale of the tragedy is already being compared to the devastating floods of 2010 when more than 2,000 people were killed, marking the event as the deadliest in Pakistan’s history.

There are four provinces in Pakistan: Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Sindh plus the Islamabad Capital Territory. The Sindh province is bisected by the Indus, Pakistan’s largest river, which flows from the upstream northern highlands of the Himalayas down to the Arabian Ocean.

Glacial meltwater from the Himalayas and Karakoram mountain range plus snow melt and monsoon rains all supply the Indus with water. The Indus is 3,200 km long and has a large discharge of 5,533 m 3 /s (approximately twice as much as the river Nile in Egypt, placing it 52 nd in the world). Flooding often occurs in the southeast of the country, in the Sindh province.

Figure 1 a topographic map of Pakistan, the Sindh provincial capital is Karachi

However, the average discharge for the Indus does not accurately depict the situation in Pakistan because there are extreme spikes in flow, discharge, and flood water at times throughout the year. For example, last week the Indus burst its banks and as much as 17,000 m 3 /s of water was discharged. This was caused by Pakistan receiving 190% more rainfall from June to August (compared to average rainfall for this time period over the past 30 years).

The Sindh province to the south of the country has been severely impacted, as it has a wide flat central plain (the Indus river valley), covering 51,800 km 2 .

Sindh province

The main economic industry of Sindh is agriculture, which the Indus river has supported for millennia.

The flow of the Indus is typically high between mid-July and mid-August due to environmental factors.  However, this year rainfall in Sindh has been exceptionally heavy in recent months.

Figure 2 rainfall is well above average in most regions across Pakistan © BBC

Is climate change to blame?

Recent heavy rainfall is only part of the story. This flood event is widely being reported as a climate-related disaster due to extreme changes in monsoon behaviour, precipitation patterns, and melting glaciers.

These contributing factors have been accentuated by increases in global temperature. The UN secretary general, António Guterres, emphasised the link to climate change saying “today, it’s Pakistan. Tomorrow, it could be your country” signalling to the world that more needs to be done in the fight against climate change.

The monsoon rainfall was particularly heavy this year due to changes in air temperature across the Arabian Ocean. It is likely that climate change affected the intensity of the monsoon as record amounts of rain fell across the country throughout August (as much as 500-700% more than usual).

The IPCC has reported that South Asia has warmed by around 0.7°C since 1900. This leads to heavy monsoon rain because the warmer atmosphere holds more moisture.

The likelihood of seeing phenomena that may cause severe monsoon conditions is likely to increase. This year, the La Niña event in the Pacific and meanders in the jet stream created perfect conditions for the unusual monsoon rains.

Glacial melt is a growing problem around the world. In Pakistan this is a particular problem as the country has more glaciers than anywhere else in the world, (there are 7,000) excluding the polar regions. This year there has been triple the usual amount of glacial lake outbursts, causing catastrophic flooding.

Table 1 a brief summary of the 2022 Pakistan floods

Further work

• BBC Pakistan floods: One third of country is under water - minister
• Publishing Service UK Government Pakistan Toponymic fact file 2019
• Reuters South Pakistan braces for yet more flooding as waters flow down from north
• BBC Pakistan floods: Time running out for families in Sindh
• NASA World of Change: Seasons of the Indus River
• BBC Pakistan floods: Map and satellite photos show extent of devastation
• CNN Pakistan's melting glaciers are 'erupting' and worsening floods
• The Conversation Pakistan floods: what role did climate change play?

File name Files

The 2022 Pakistan floods (1)

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How Pakistan floods are linked to climate change

The devastating floods in Pakistan are a "wake-up call" to the world on the threats of climate change, experts have said.

The record-breaking rain would devastate any country, not just poorer nations, one climate scientist has told BBC News.

The human impacts are clear - another 2,000 people were rescued from floodwaters on Friday, while ministers warn of food shortages after almost half the country's crops were washed away.

A sense of injustice is keenly felt in the country. Pakistan contributes less than 1% of the global greenhouse gases that warm our planet but its geography makes it extremely vulnerable to climate change.

"Literally, one-third of Pakistan is underwater right now, which has exceeded every boundary, every norm we've seen in the past," Climate minister Sherry Rehman said this week.

Pakistan is located at a place on the globe which bears the brunt of two major weather systems. One can cause high temperatures and drought, like the heatwave in March, and the other brings monsoon rains.

The majority of Pakistan's population live along the Indus river, which swells and can flood during monsoon rains.

The science linking climate change and more intense monsoons is quite simple. Global warming is making air and sea temperatures rise, leading to more evaporation. Warmer air can hold more moisture, making monsoon rainfall more intense.

Scientists predict that the average rainfall in the Indian summer monsoon season will increase due to climate change, explains Anja Katzenberger at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

But Pakistan has something else making it susceptible to climate change effects - its immense glaciers.

The northern region is sometimes referred to as part of the 'third pole' - it contains more glacial ice than anywhere in the world outside of the polar regions.

As the world warms, glacial ice is melting. Glaciers in Pakistan's Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions are melting rapidly, creating more than 3,000 lakes, the the UN Development Programme told BBC News. Around 33 of these are at risk of sudden bursting, which could unleash millions of cubic meters of water and debris, putting 7 million people at risk.

• Map and photos show extent of Pakistan floods
• World's glaciers melting at faster rate
• Climate change swells odds of Pakistan heatwave

Pakistan's government and the UN are attempting to reduce the risks of these sudden outburst floods by installing early-warning systems and protective infrastructure.

In the past poorer countries with weaker flood defences or lower-quality housing have been less able to cope with extreme rainfall.

But climate impact scientist Fahad Saeed told BBC News that even a rich nation would be overwhelmed by the catastrophic flooding this summer.

"This is a different type of animal - the scale of the floods is so high and the rain is so extreme, that even very robust defences would struggle," Dr Saeed explains from Islamabad, Pakistan.

He points to the flooding in Germany and Belgium that killed dozens of people in 2021.

Pakistan received nearly 190% more rain than its 30-year average from June to August - reaching a total of 390.7mm.

He says that Pakistan's meteorological service did a "reasonable" job in warning people in advance about flooding. And the country does have some flood defences but they could be improved, he says.

People with the smallest carbon footprints are suffering the most, Dr Saeed says.

"The victims are living in mud homes with hardly any resources - they have contributed virtually nothing to climate change," he says.

The flooding has affected areas that don't normally see this type of rain, including southern regions Sindh and Balochistan that are normally arid or semi-arid.

• Sindh province awaits more devastation

Yusuf Baluch, a 17-year-old climate activist from Balochistan, says that inequality in the country is making the problem worse. He remembers his own family home being washed away by flooding when he was six years old.

"People living in cities and from more privileged backgrounds are least affected by the flooding," he explains.

"People have the right to be angry. Companies are still extracting fossil fuels from Balochistan, but people there have just lost their homes and have no food or shelter," he says. He believes the government is failing to support communities there.

Dr Saeed says the floods are "absolutely a wake-up call" to governments globally who promised to tackle climate change at successive UN climate conferences.

"All of this is happening when the world has warmed by 1.2C - any more warming than that is a death sentence for many people in Pakistan," he adds.

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Case Study – The Indus River Basin Pakistan

Cambridge iGCSE Geography > The Natural Environment > Rivers > Case Study – The Indus River Basin Pakistan

Background Information

The river and river basin.

The Indus River is one of the longest rivers in the world, originating from the Tibetan Plateau and flowing through China, India, and Pakistan before emptying into the Arabian Sea. The river basin spans four countries: China, India, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, with the majority of its area lying in Pakistan, covering around 70% of the country. The river basin is home to over 200 million people. The river plays a pivotal role in Pakistan’s economy, especially agriculture , as it forms the backbone of the country’s irrigation system. Additionally, the Indus provides the main drinking water supply in Pakistan, and it is also relied on by many heavy industries to support production processes.

The Indus River

The River Indus and its tributaries have been heavily modified to exploit and use its water. Two mega-dams (Tarbela and Mangla) have been constructed, and 320 barrages provide irrigation water and help control water that falls during the annual monsoon. Despite these interventions, heavier monsoon rains continue to cause significant flood events.

The Tarbela Dam holding back the Tarbela reservoir

The increasing population pressure, effects of climate change, and ongoing deterioration of the basin’s ecosystems have heightened flood risks. This situation is exacerbated by insufficient flood planning and management within the Indus floodplain.

The Indus River plays a pivotal role for countless individuals; thus, its flooding can lead to catastrophic outcomes. From 1950 to 2012, the Indus River basin in Pakistan witnessed 22 significant floods. These calamities resulted in the unfortunate loss of over 9,300 lives, impacted upwards of 10,000 villages, and led to direct economic setbacks of roughly $20 billion.

The 2010 floods stand out as the most detrimental in Pakistan’s history. They swept through every province and region, claiming 1,600 lives and inflicting damages exceeding $10 billion. The floods submerged nearly 38,600 km², destroyed nearly 2 million dwellings, and necessitated over 20 million individuals abandoning their homes and livelihoods. As a result of this disaster, Pakistan’s GDP growth rate plummeted from a previous 4% to a staggering -2.5%, ushering in a period of stunted economic growth.

Opportunities Presented by the River Indus

• Agriculture: The Indus Plains are fertile and support the cultivation of wheat, rice, sugarcane, and cotton. The river provides essential water for irrigation.
• Hydroelectric Power: The river’s flow is harnessed for generating electricity. Projects like the Tarbela and Mangla dams are prime examples.
• Transportation: Historically, the river has been a significant transportation route for goods and people.
• Fisheries: The river and its tributaries support a vibrant fishing industry, providing livelihoods for thousands.
• Tourism : Areas surrounding the river, especially in the northern regions, are picturesque and attract tourists.

Associated Hazards – Flooding

The Indus River frequently floods, especially during the monsoon season during July and August. However, floods, such as those in 2010, combined human and natural factors.

• Natural Causes: Heavy monsoon rains (some areas can receive over 280mm in 36 hours in exceptional circumstances), rapid run-oof from steep valley sides, glacial melts, and snowmelt from the Himalayas.
• Human Causes: Deforestation and degraded ecosystems in the catchment areas leads to increased runoff, urbanisation in floodplain areas, and inadequate maintenance of embankments and drainage canals and many levees could not withstand the sustained flood pressure resulting in large sections failing. The Indus Basin lacks an effective flood management policy.

River Management

Hard engineering solutions:.

• Dams and Reservoirs: Examples include the Tarbela Dam and Mangla Dam. These structures store excess water and allow controlled release, reducing the risk of flooding downstream. The dams effectively held back floodwater in 2010. However, sedimentation has reduced the storage capacity of both reservoirs.
• Embankments and Levees: Raised structures are built along the riverbanks to prevent floodwaters from spilling into adjacent lands. There are 6000km of artificial levees providing the most flood protection and over 14000 spurs, stone walls or levees constructed to divert water flow at essential locations.
• Channel Straightening: By making the river channel straighter, water can flow faster, reducing the flooding risk in certain areas.

Soft Engineering Solutions:

• Afforestation: Planting trees in the river’s catchment areas can reduce runoff and decrease the risk of flooding.
• Floodplain Zoning: Designating areas near the river as zones where development is restricted or controlled can minimise flood damage.
• Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems: These systems provide early warnings to residents, allowing them to prepare or evacuate in case of impending floods.
• Community Education: Training and educating local communities about flood risks and preparedness measures can significantly reduce the impact of floods.

The Indus River Basin is a vital lifeline for Pakistan, offering numerous opportunities. However, the associated hazards, particularly flooding, pose significant challenges. A mix of hard and soft engineering solutions is crucial for sustainable management and mitigation of risks in the basin.

The Indus River, originating from the Tibetan Plateau, flows through China, India, and Pakistan, with its basin spanning four countries and housing over 200 million people. It’s vital for Pakistan’s economy, particularly agriculture and water supply.

Two mega-dams (Tarbela and Mangla) and 320 barrages have been constructed to exploit the river’s water. Still, heavier monsoon rains often result in flooding, with the 2010 floods being the most catastrophic in Pakistan’s history.

The river offers agriculture, hydroelectric power, transportation, fisheries, and tourism opportunities. It’s crucial for crops like wheat, rice, and cotton and for generating electricity with projects like the Tarbela and Mangla dams.

Associated hazards include frequent flooding from natural causes like heavy monsoon rains and human causes like deforestation and urbanisation in floodplain areas. From 1950 to 2012, significant floods in the basin led to over 9,300 lost lives and around $20 billion in damages.

River management combines hard engineering solutions, such as dams, embankments, and channel straightening, with soft engineering solutions like afforestation, floodplain zoning, and community education. Both approaches are vital for sustainable risk mitigation in the basin.

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Pakistan’s cultural city of Lahore saw record-high rainfall early on Thursday, leaving at least three people dead, while flooding streets, disrupting traffic and affecting daily life, officials said, as the death toll from rain-related incidents over the past month surpassed 100. (AP Video/Jahanzaib Aurangzaib)

Record rainfall floods streets and affects daily life in Pakistan’s cultural capital

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Aerodynamic behavior of hump slab track in desert railways: a case study in shuregaz, iran.

1. Introduction

2. the study region, 2.1. the shurgaz location, 2.2. key specifications, 3. modeling procedure, 3.1. governing equations, 3.1.1. air phase, 3.1.2. sand phase, 3.2. hump slab geometry, 3.3. flow type and meshing, 3.4. model settings, 4. validation of the numerical model, 4.1. wind tunnel test.

• The preparation of the laboratory and wind tunnel conditions for testing.
• The calibration of the wind tunnel velocity using equipment such as Pitot tubes, hot wires, etc.
• The placement of roughness elements inside the tunnel to create a logarithmic wind flow profile.
• The installation of an injection system at the top of the tunnel for introducing particles into the wind tunnel test chamber.
• The placement of the hump slab track at a specified distance inside the wind tunnel test chamber and, additionally, the preparation of the sample collector for gathering samples at various heights within the wind tunnel and deployment of the collector at a predetermined distance of 2 m from the obstacle ( Figure 13 ).
• The installation of a hump slab track 1.6 m away from the sand injection point ( Figure 12 a).
• The arrangement, to enhance the accuracy of the sand flux curve at different heights in the wind tunnel, of the containers in parallel rows with a 3.5 cm gap between each row. This setup creates 21 data collection points along the height of the wind tunnel, reducing potential errors ( Figure 12 c).
• The continuous feeding of sand particles by a particle injection system into a 100 cm wide section of the wind tunnel ( Figure 12 d).

4.2. Numerical Simulation

5. results and discussion, 5.1. the performance of different humps, 5.2. effect of particle diameter, 5.3. effects of mass flow rate, 5.4. effects of sandstorm speed, 6. conclusions.

• Increasing the height of the humps up to 0.25 m decreases the risk of sand accumulation in the inlet channels, given the characteristics of sandstorms in the Shuregaz region. A higher hump height has a direct relationship with the improvement of the performance of the hump slab track system.
• Sand accumulation is minimal in sand inlet and outlet channels for particles with a diameter of 150 µm while sand discharge velocity is maximal. Therefore, the probability of particle sedimentation with this diameter in the inlet and outlet channels is lower compared to those with other particle diameters.
• Increasing the sand flow rate has a nonlinear and increasing impact on sand accumulation in the inlet and outlet channels. However, at a sand flow rate of 0.0066 kg/s, the effective discharge of the channels occurs more efficiently.
• Sand accumulation in the inlet and outlet channels significantly decreases with an increase in sandstorm speed from 10 to 30 m/s (on average 80% in CR25-15 models). However, the DPM values stabilize relatively at sandstorm speeds of more than 25 m/s. Moreover, the SMV values in the inlet and outlet channels noticeably increase with an increase in wind speed from 10 to 30 m/s.
• The consolidated results indicate that the implementation of hump slab track with a hump height of 25 cm can be considered a practical solution for critical desert rail areas. The application of this innovative slab track system in the Shuregaz region has demonstrated effective and sustainable performance against sandstorm passage through the superstructure section. Naturally, the use of this type of superstructure in other regions should be carefully examined and evaluated based on the prevailing conditions of the respective desert area.

7. Future Work

Author contributions, data availability statement, conflicts of interest.

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Fathali, M.; Nasrabad, M.M.K.; Moghadas Nejad, F.; Chalabii, J.; Movahedi Rad, M. Aerodynamic Behavior of Hump Slab Track in Desert Railways: A Case Study in Shuregaz, Iran. Buildings 2024 , 14 , 2473. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings14082473

Fathali M, Nasrabad MMK, Moghadas Nejad F, Chalabii J, Movahedi Rad M. Aerodynamic Behavior of Hump Slab Track in Desert Railways: A Case Study in Shuregaz, Iran. Buildings . 2024; 14(8):2473. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings14082473

Fathali, Masoud, Mohammad Mohsen Kabiri Nasrabad, Fereidoon Moghadas Nejad, Jafar Chalabii, and Majid Movahedi Rad. 2024. "Aerodynamic Behavior of Hump Slab Track in Desert Railways: A Case Study in Shuregaz, Iran" Buildings 14, no. 8: 2473. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings14082473

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