. GDP: gross domestic product, CY: calendar year, FY: fiscal year, e: estimate f: forecast; in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Pakistan, 2019 refers to FY2018/2019 and ended in June 2019. For India, 2019 refers to FY2019/2020 and will end in March 2020
Variables | Observation | Mean | SD | Minimum | Maximum |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
147 | 24.186 | 2.180 | 19.529 | 28.459 | |
147 | 11.455 | 3.793 | 3.951 | 16.1950 | |
147 | 10.035 | 3.649 | 3.401 | 15.556 | |
147 | 22.519 | 7.347 | 7.426 | 39.041 | |
147 | 13.872 | 5.872 | 4.844 | 21.456 | |
147 | 11.764 | 3.671 | 2.745 | 19.932 | |
147 | 6.992 | 4.652 | −18.108 | 26.418 | |
147 | 56.035 | 25.199 | 21.929 | 116.362 |
Correlation matrix
Variables | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.000 | ||||||||
0.216 | 1.000 | |||||||
0.521 | 0.344 | 1.000 | ||||||
0.338 | −0.212 | −0.321 | 1.000 | |||||
0.421 | 0.427 | 0.522 | 0.218 | 1.000 | ||||
0.539 | 0.217 | 0.063 | 0.116 | 0.324 | 1.000 | |||
−0.018 | 0.114 | 0.173 | −0.092 | 0.276 | 0.321 | 1.000 | ||
0.275 | −0.418 | −0.399 | 0.041 | 0.345 | 0.456 | −0.035 | 1.000 |
Diagnostic test | Statistics | Prob. | Conclusion |
---|---|---|---|
Jarque-Bera normality test Chi2 | 7.103 | 0.02 | Normality is present |
Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisberg test for Heteroscedasticity | 7.03 | 0.00 | Heteroscedasticity is present |
Breusch-Godfrey LM test for autocorrelation | 136.38 | 0.00 | Serial correlation is present |
Results of diagnostic tests
i. Results of the Hausman Test | |
: | |
(7) | 0.44 |
Prob > | 0.994 |
ii. Wooldridge test for serial correlation | |
: − | |
(1, 7) | 3,222.38 |
Prob > | 0.000 |
iii. Breusch and Pagan LM Test | |
: | |
(7) | 27.962 |
Prob > | 0.0061 |
iv. Breusch and Pagan LM Test for Random Effect | |
: | |
(7) | 1,085.47 |
Prob > | 0.000 |
Regression results
Dependent variable: | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Pooled OLS | Fixed effect | Random effect | Feasible GLS | |
0.401*** (7.14) | 0.500*** (11.04) | 0.500*** (11.28) | 0.121** (2.82) | |
0.159*** (2.8) | 0.183** (1.97) | 0.192** (1.87) | 0.373*** (6.66) | |
0.051*** (5.17) | 0.066*** (10.74) | 0.067*** (11.27) | −0.026*** (4.22) | |
0.608** (2.025) | 0.552 (1.532) | 0.495** (1.873) | 0.287* (1.743) | |
0.325* (1.663) | 0.289** (1.982) | 0.211*** (2.792) | 0.189* (1.754) | |
−0.006 (−0.46) | −0.0019 (−0.48) | −0.002 (−0.49) | −0.0006 (−0.03) | |
0.0063 (1.36) | 0.0049** (2.94) | 0.0048* (1.597) | −0.007** (−1.743) | |
C | 19.09*** (26.88) | 18.28*** (17.81) | 18.63*** (16.35) | 19.18*** (34.91) |
-test (model) | 216.48 | 192.03 | 998.13 | 232.25 |
-test (sign) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
0.884 | 0.879 | 0.879 | -- | |
147 | 147 | 147 | 147 |
Here t -statistics given in parentheses; * p < 0.05; ** p <* 0.01; *** p < 0.001
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Seafood plays a pivotal role in global economies, livelihoods, and nutritional security. However, climate change and global pandemics pose significant threats to seafood harvests, production, supply chains, and marketing channels. The focus of my thesis is to understand the impact of external factors on our seafood resources and explore adaptive strategies in the face of uncertainties. We utilize economics techniques to study human-nature systems by zooming into social elements (government agencies, industry stakeholders, and fish farmers/fishermen) and aquatic resources. The three essays of my thesis delve into this inquiry from the perspectives of government, industry, and market, accordingly.
The first chapter in my thesis, Climate Change and Snow Crab Harvest - Applying Random Effect Estimators with Instrumental Variable , estimates the snow crab harvest function with unbalanced panel data of eastern Bering Sea snow crab, Canadian snow crab, Japanese snow crab, and Barents Sea snow crab. Specifically, we analyze the relationship between snow crab biomass, stock, and catch. To address the endogeneity of stock in the harvest function, climate change indicators are selected as instrumental variables. We identify that the Arctic Sea ice extent is effective in addressing the endogeneity and the random effects instrumental variable model with error components two stage least squares estimator performs the best to control heterogeneity. We find that a 1% increase in snow crab fishing effort is associated with a 0.42% increase in snow crab harvest, and a 1% increase in snow crab stock causes a 0.98% increase in snow crab harvest. The reported estimates indicate a large stock-harvest elasticity and provide supporting evidence for government fishery agencies to prioritize stock enhancement in policy designs.
The second chapter, Online Media Sentiment Analysis of Shrimp and Salmon in the United States , employs online media analytics on shrimp and salmon in the US to provide insights into consumer perceptions and potential demand signals for seafood. Search hits and mentions are quantified for top sources, domains, and prevalent terms. In addition, sentiment drivers and sentiment values are identified and calculated using natural language processing tools. The results reveal that the occurrence of peak mentions does not necessarily coincide with the peak of net sentiment, and farmed seafood consistently exhibits lower net sentiments compared to their wild counterparts. Autoregressive modeling is conducted to predict the dynamics of seafood’s net sentiments. The regional analysis demonstrates that public attitudes toward both farmed shrimp and salmon in the East North Central region exhibit a more positive net sentiment, while the New England and Middle Atlantic regions tend to have a lower net sentiment for farmed shrimp and salmon, respectively. The fitted forecast model serves as a supplementary tool for industry stakeholders to quickly respond to future public perceptions. Regional statistics also help the seafood industry tailor business strategies to different regions.
In the third chapter, Comparative Case Study of Small-Scale Fish Processing for Local Seafood Supply , we examine the feasibility of utilizing a shared-use commercial kitchen and on-farm kitchen to support small-scale local fish processing, which helps diversify marketing channels in the US Midwest and supply seafood to local food systems. A case study of each facility type is assessed for economic viability for fish farmers. The financial analysis suggests farmers interested in processing tilapia or rainbow trout from 2,500 lbs to 5,000 lbs per year utilize rental commercial kitchens. A minimum of 15% markup and processing of 10,000 lbs/year tilapia is required to make the on-farm kitchen option more viable. For farmers who process rainbow trout, 10,000 lbs/year with a 10% markup using an on-farm kitchen is a better choice. Factoring in the stochastic variability of raw product prices, rental rates, and set-up costs, we provide simulated ranges for economic metrics including profitability index, payback period, and net present values. The reports of estimated costs, revenues, and breakeven prices, provide fish farmers with suggested selling prices, kitchen choices, and production levels to achieve optimum profits under risks.
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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40% of the world’s population live near coastal areas, more than 3 billion people utilize the oceans for their livelihood, and 80% of world trade is achieved using the seas. The oceans, seas and coastal areas contribute to food security and poverty eradication. And yet, the oceans are under severe threat by human activities, where economic profit are at the expense of environmental degradation. Acidification, pollution, ocean warming, eutrophication and fishery collapse are just some of the examples of the consequences on the marine ecosystems. These threats are detrimental to the planet and are long-term repercussions that demand urgent action to protect the oceans and the people who depend on them.
In 2015, all United Nations Member States adopted a development policy on sustainability which centers around the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). The 17 goals provide a global blueprint for peace and prosperity of people and the planet and are set to be achieved by 2030. Goal 14, labelled Life Below Water, concerns conservation and sustainable use of the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development, and demands international cooperation for the oceans to get back in balance.
Reaching Goal 14 requires universal action to protect the planet and calls for implementation of international forces, through institutional and legal frameworks. Progress has been made, but the targets by 2030 remain a long way off, highlighting the need for action today.
The oceans and seas are a key source to food, energy and minerals, and are being used more and more for multiple sectorial activities. Common examples are fisheries and aquaculture, and the processing and trade of these resources. The maritime transport also plays a big role in the globalized market in the form of containerships, tankers, and ports for the vessels. Furthermore, coastal tourism is the largest business within ocean related activities in terms of employment.
For the past few years, the use of term “Blue Economy” has increased and has e.g. been used by the UN, EU, OECD and the World Bank to explain the nexus between sustainability, economics and the ocean. In fact, the UN notes that the Blue Economy is exactly what is needed to implement SDG 14, Life Below Water.
“Blue economy” is an economic term linked to exploitation and conservation of the maritime environment and is sometimes used as a synonym for “sustainable ocean-based economy”. There is, however, no consensus on the exact definition and the field of application depends on organization that uses it. The UN first introduced “blue economy” at a conference in 2012 and underlined sustainable management, based on the argument that marine ecosystems are more productive when they are healthy. This is backed up by scientific findings, showing that the earth’s resources are limited and that greenhouse gases are damaging the planet. Furthermore, pollution, unsustainable fishing, habitat destruction etc. harm the marine life and are increasing day by day.
The UN specifies Blue Economy as a range of economic activities related to oceans, seas and coastal areas, and whether these activities are sustainable and socially equitable. An important key point of Blue Economy is sustainable fishing, ocean health, wildlife, and stopping pollution. The UN iterates that the Blue Economy should “promote economic growth, social inclusion, and the preservation or improvement of livelihoods while at the same time ensuring environmental sustainability of the oceans and coastal areas”. This points out the importance of global cooperation across borders and sectors. This also indicates that governments, organizations and decisionmakers need to join forces to ensure that their policies won’t undermine each other.
The use of the seas, the oceans and the coastal areas has accelerated the past years. The OECD describes the ocean as the next great economic frontier as it holds potential for wealth and economic growth, employment and innovation. And while the economy includes existing businesses such as fisheries, coastal tourism and shipping, it also focuses on the development of new emerging sectors that were next to non-existent 20 years ago e.g. blue carbon sequestration, marine energy and biotechnology; sectorial activities that create potential and opportunities for training and employment, but also fight climate change.
Blue Economy has the power to obtain better governance of marine ecosystems, lower emissions, a more just health standard and be a player in fighting climate change. In the recent years, emerging sectors within energy have grown exponentially, and oceans are popular sites for renewable energy. Alternative energy sources such as wind energy, hydropower and tidal energy are fitting for marine environments. Especially offshore wind (including floating wind turbines) is fast growing and has around for many years – the first offshore wind park erected in 1991 in Denmark, and the quantity of offshore wind farms was 162 in 2020, according to WFO. The report Offshore Wind Outlook 2019 by the International Energy Agency (IEA), offshore wind power has the potential to generate more than 18 times the global electricity demand today. Wind farms require specific
professions and therefore create jobs in construction, maintenance and administration.
Offshore wind energy is only one example of benefits of Blue Economy. Others are offshore aquaculture (an emerging approach to fish farming), wave and tidal energy, seabed mining and blue biotechnology, which uses, among others, shellfish, bacteria and algae for development in health care and energy production. Moreover, existing industries, such as
shipping and tourism, have potential of growing and become greener with new technologies.
To support the Blue Economy, both the European Union and the United Nations have developed a long-term strategy that aims to support facilitate sustainable ocean-based economic benefits by implementing climate-resilient and inclusive blue economy policies that reduce human impact. Some countries have also taken it upon themselves to implement strategies and policies that support the idea of Blue Economy. Among these are Denmark and Norway that have a clear focus on the shipping industry.
NORWAY: THE GREEN SHIPPING PROGRAMME
According to the EU , 13% of the overall EU greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector are due to shipping industry. Norway has undertaken to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared with the reference year 1990, and for the Norwegian fleet to be climate neutral by 2050. These goals provide a basis for The Green Shipping Programme which aims to seek solutions for sustainable and efficient shipping. The programme is an institutional collaboration between authorities and the private sector, which will accelerate economic growth, increase competition, create new jobs and of course cut emissions.
The programme is made of studies and projects and are crucial in making the Norwegian shipping greener. Around 20 large-scale projects have been introduced, including development of green ports and shuttle tankers running on liquified natural gas. Seven of the projects have been implemented or are under construction.
DENMARK: “TOWARDS ZERO”
Like Norway, Denmark has also taken steps towards a greener and more sustainable shipping industry with the strategy “ Towards Zero ”. Danish Shipping, a business and employers’ organization for Danish Shipping, is the largest single export industry in Denmark and has launched “Towards Zero” which aims to make shipping climate neutral by 2050. Moreover, Danish Shipping works hard on defeating political and financial barriers that hinder climate neutral shipping.
The initiative is committed to accelerate the transition of green shipping regarding “Fit for 55” and goals set by IMO, a maritime agency of the UN. Among others, Toward Zero endeavors to provide more training place at sea, ensure competition and support continued growth of the Danish merchant fleet industry.
However, not all countries have access to the same resources as European countries and some aspects of the Blue Economy is often forgotten. This present especially poor countries with challenges in the implementation. Challenges related to finance, social justice and science.
Financial barriers
Obtaining a Blue Economy requires a stable economy and long-term financial plans which has become a large obstacle for some countries due to COVID-19. Financial barriers play a big role in the implementation of Blue Economy and it is usually developing countries that pay the price. Some developing countries have high levels of external debt and, therefore, focus won’t be on transitioning the country’s agricultural system towards a bluer one. The transition becomes harder for some countries due to the lack of capacity and technology. Furthermore, the country needs a skilled workforce and therefore training within the field.
Social justice
The UN stresses that equity must not be forgotten when supporting a blue economy. Land and resources often belong to communities, and the interests of communities dependent on the ocean are often marginalized, since large sectors such as coastal tourism are viewed as bringing in a larger profit. This means that Blue Economy must help achieving SDG 14, but not undermine other goals of the 2030 Agenda at the same time.
Science and innovation
The Blue Economy is based on multiple fields within ocean science and therefore needs intersectoral experts and stakeholders. NGO’s, fishers’ organizations, indigenous people and communities are all crucial for an inclusive economy. However, science and innovation are needed to understand the environmental and socioeconomic aspects of a Blue Economy. Thus, the basis of creating a Blue Economy can be demanding and needs numerous experts on the different fields that some countries may not have access to. Developing must then not only rely on their own national experts, but also on the expertise from other countries.
While many countries work towards a greener agenda by advancing their ocean economies, achieving such endeavors are still challenging. Global governments need to transition a small part of their economy towards achieving a global, healthy blue economy. A part used for investing in modern infrastructure, technologies, R&D, education and creating jobs. Transitioning away from an agricultural industry towards a bluer economy will be demanding. This means that governments must work together to make blue economies sustainable, share research and know-how.
Multiple global organizations provide dialogue and guidance by creating international events. In beginning of March 2022, The Economist hosted World Ocean Summit on achieving the 2030 targets. In February 2020, The European Commission also hosted One Ocean Summit in Brest, France, to take new steps to strengthen EU leadership in protecting the ocean. At last, the UN Ocean Conference will take place in June and July in Lisbon and will focus on saving our oceans and protecting our future.
More information here:
Sustainable Development Goals 14
UN report: Promotion and Strengthening of Sustainable Ocean-based Economies
UN report: The Potential of Blue Economy for Small Island Developing States
Oceans Decade: Science as a tool for a healthier ocean
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Reconciling competing interests is a key challenge for environmental governance, especially in marine ecosystems, which are facing a combination of environmental pressures and high levels of human dependence. At the same time, there is increasing interest in oceans as a source of economic growth. Marine ecosystems are often characterised by legal plurality, which adds another challenge for effective governance. Marine ecosystems governance is therefore complex, and it has been proposed that interactive governance that aligns the values and principles of different governance actors is needed to address multiple interlinked, but sometimes also competing, goals and interests. Contemporary governance approaches increasingly emphasise the interlinked interests of humans and nature, as demonstrated the concept of ecosystem services and the recently emerged blue economy. Ecosystem services are defined as “the benefits people obtain from ecosystems” (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 p. v). The blue economy has various definitions, that commonly emphasise “improvement of human wellbeing and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities” (The Commonwealth 2020 p. 1) Ecosystem services and the blue economy are thought to together offer potential for the alignment of different interests through their emphasis on multiple and interlinked goals for environmental governance. Whilst the blue economy informs wider policy discourse, ecosystem services can be seen as the materialisation of this discourse through capturing preferences and values on the ground. However, aiming for the simultaneous optimisation of different dimensions does not guarantee alignment of values, worldviews and images within or among elements of governance, and across scale. The question remains whether these increasingly dominant approaches to marine environmental governance succeed in demonstrating the importance of biodiversity whilst integrating diverse social, economic, and environmental interests. The ecosystem services concept tends to be directed at the system to be governed (e.g. ecosystems and resource users), whereas the blue economy concept is directed at the governing system (i.e. national governments and decision makers), and although they are related, it is not clear to what extent they are capable of connecting these different scales. In this thesis, I set out to develop a better understanding of the extent to which the evolving landscape of marine environmental governance contributes to aligning the values, worldviews and images of the governing system with those of the system-to-be-governed. To achieve this, I examine the blue economy and ecosystem services using different methods, from different angles, and at different scales. Thus, my aim is to assess the ability of both concepts to engage with a variety of actors in principle (in research and policy discourse), and the shape they take in practice, where they impact resource users. Successes would suggest interaction and negotiation among actors is possible such that the long-term underlying values, which shape governance, can inform and are informed by the short-term preferences, that are time-bound, and shape management on the ground. Specifically, in my thesis I ask whether an ecosystem service approach, which is focused on preferences, adequately captures the full range of peoples’ diverse and plural values, and whether the blue economy is reflective of these values on the ground. Therefore, the contribution of this thesis is the exploration of how values, worldviews and images interact to shape governance at local, national, and international scales. I use bibliometric and network analysis to assess interdisciplinarity in ecosystem services research. My approach focuses on evaluating the extent to which an article’s citations draw on knowledge from across disciplinary boundaries. I find that research on ecosystem services continues to grow exponentially, and that there is an increasing number of disciplines involved. This increase is also reflected in the growing number of social science disciplines that publish on ecosystem services. However, the proportion of social science involvement has remained stable over the years, and ecology-based knowledge, and therefore worldviews, remain the most influential in the field. Interestingly, economics, often highlighted as having a disproportionate influence in ecosystem services, appears marginal in the field’s development and network. Nevertheless, the growth of social science involvement in ecosystem services research points at potential for the inclusion of heterogeneous knowledge and plural worldviews. This could help the concept to return to its goal of connecting ecological functioning with human well-being, thereby raising support for conservation. Next, I apply the ecosystem services concept in a resource user-setting, eliciting preferences for specific ecosystem services through a ranking exercise and exploring the link with underlying values. I find that preferences are associated with underlying values that overall are considered unimportant, and that directly asking people to explain their preferences gives better insight into the reasons why they ranked the services the way they do. In addition, the reasons that people give were more aligned with the general values structure of Seychelles, which prioritises self-transcendence values over self-enhancement. I identify a need for the explicit deliberation of values in environmental governance, in order to align the realities of the system that is being governed with the institutions of the governing system, but also with their underlying values, worldviews, images and principles. Following this, I apply Q-methodology and interviews with people in roles of formal decision-making in environmental governance to explore images of the blue economy as expressed in perspectives on the concept in Seychelles. I find three perspectives on the blue economy in Seychelles: supportive in principle, critical in practice; pragmatic and accepting; and idealistic. These perspectives reflect some of the international critique on the concept, for instance doubts around the reconciliation of environmental and economic interests. However, I find that much of international discourse was not reflected in the perspectives in Seychelles, and very limited attention for the social dimension of the blue economy. Social concerns were only expressed by one of the actors, who was found to be of very low influence in the network of actors involved in the blue economy. Finally, building on interviews and observations from the wider governance landscape, I consider power relations within Seychelles as a part of the increasingly dominant blue economy narrative internationally. I find that internationally, the blue economy is maintained as influential through persuasion and the creation of a ‘common sense’, presenting the possibility of triple wins through rational management. On the ground, despite the sense that there are critical voices as Seychelles is shaping the blue economy, outward discussion is stifled by depoliticised decision-making processes, leading to simmering discontent that is only expressed in private. The internationally hegemonic status of the blue economy concept persists locally. Throughout my thesis, themes of values, power, depoliticization and dissent emerge as critical issues in the alignment of different governance actors. Ecosystem services take place within the system-to-be-governed, whereas the blue economy is a powerful discourse in the governing system. Therefore, both approaches present the possibility of complementing each other to facilitate alignment between the system that is being governed and the governing system and mediate their interactions. However, this alignment is inhibited by a lack of deliberation on values, worldviews and images that underpin governance, and are therefore essential to discuss. This lack of deliberation is facilitated by power dynamics and depoliticization. Power is mediated by the boundary object status of both ecosystem services and the blue economy, which although versatile, also can stifle discussion about incompatible interpretations of both concepts. Boundary objects can become a source of power by creating a ‘common sense’ in which conflicting interests are resolved rhetorically, thereby gaining power through persuasion. The boundary object status of the blue economy also contributes to the depoliticization of discussions, prioritising techno-managerial approaches instead. However, I also found that dissent is emerging both on the ground and in academic critique. This dissent is leading to calls for more deliberative and participatory approaches to the blue economy and ecosystem services, which would allow for exploration of the shared values, worldviews and images that underpin environmental governance. Thereby, pressures on and demands from marine ecosystems could be reconciled through interaction between different elements of society. Comparing people’s attitudes towards these underlying aspects of governance opens up processes of power, giving insight into whose values count, and which images are leading governance visions. Concepts that seek to reconcile competing interests by integrating and optimising their demands offer potential, but need to be applied with explicit recognition of power relations and conflicting values.
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NOAA today released its Blue Economy Strategic Plan for 2021-2025, laying out a roadmap for new ways to advance America’s Blue Economy and enhance a global ocean economy offsite link expected to double in value to $3 trillion over the next decade.
Cover for NOAA story map entitled Our dynamic marine economy. (Image credit: NOAA)
NOAA’s data, tools, and services that support coastal economies and their contribution to the national economy touch all aspects of American life. Approximately 127 million people, or 40% of the U.S. population, live in coastal counties. In 2018, the American blue economy supported 2.3 million jobs, and contributed approximately $373 billion to the nation’s gross domestic product through activities such as tourism and recreation, shipping and transportation, commercial and recreational fishing, power generation, research, and related goods and services.
“By supporting the growth of the Blue Economy, we can help accelerate the nation’s economic recovery,” said retired Navy Rear Adm. Tim Gallaudet, Ph.D., assistant secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and deputy NOAA administrator. “This plan shows how NOAA can further the benefits of the Blue Economy for all Americans.”
The Strategic Plan focuses on five sectors that NOAA will advance through agency-wide initiatives: marine transportation, ocean exploration, seafood competitiveness, tourism and recreation, and coastal resilience.
NOAA plans to further enhance these sectors by leveraging public-private partnerships, harnessing emerging technologies, and developing innovative STEM education and outreach efforts to train the next generation of Blue Economy leaders.
“By marshalling NOAA’s in-house expertise and collaborating with partners across the country, we can foster American business, entrepreneurship, and education in service of a sustainable Blue Economy,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, acting assistant administrator of NOAA’s National Ocean Service. “Our ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes resources are critical to our security and well-being, and I’m proud of NOAA’s commitment to understand and maximize the potential of these national assets.”
The 2021-2025 NOAA Blue Economy Strategic Plan aligns with several key agency initiatives, including implementing the National Ocean Policy of 2018 , the 2018 National Strategic Plan for STEM Education , the 2019 Presidential Memorandum on Mapping the U.S. EEZ and Shoreline & Nearshore of Alaska , the 2020 National Strategy for Mapping, Exploring, & Characterizing the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone , the 2020 Executive Order on Promoting Seafood Competitiveness and Economic Growth , the 2020 Federal Strategy for Addressing the Global Challenge of Marine Litter , and several NOAA conservation, science and technology , and mapping strategies.
The concept of ‘Blue Economy’ is one spreading fast throughout the globe and aims at transforming our economy, our habits and our planet during the 21 st century. One of the key pillars of the notion is sustainability and many other are encompassed. With many similarities to ‘Green Economy’, the ‘bluer model’ aims at improving life as a whole, encompassing social aspects like social equity, along with reducing ecological risks and fuelling the economy through sustainable ways, for the sake of the current but also the future generations. The concept, evidently is tied to our oceans and seas; it encourages better stewardship of our ocean or ‘blue’ resources and highlights the close bonds between the oceans, global climate, and finally the wellbeing of humans.
Nevertheless, Blue Economy goes far beyond considering the oceans as a lever for economic growth. Numerous states across the globe fostered the development of their marine economies through the exploitation of maritime and marine resources (shipping, fishing, oil, gas, minerals etc.) often much concern of the effects of their activities on future generations. Evidently, multiple aspects of ‘blue’ emerge out of the need for sustainability, like preservations of traditional ways of life, carbon sequestration, and coastline resilience to help island (and not only) nations withstand the onslaught of climate change. Many of those island states, may have limited land surface but vast ocean resources at their disposal; this reveals immense opportunities for boosting their financial growth, not only tackling their social and economic challenges, but also preserving natural habitat.
But in order to reveal the sense of this ‘window of opportunity’, let’s go over some facts: the global ocean economy is valued at around 1.5 trillion dollars annually, while more than 80% of global trade’s volume is transported by sea. Fishing employs 350 million people directly and indirectly. By 2025 it is estimated that 34% of crude oil production will come from maritime exploitation, while aquaculture is the fastest growing food sector right now and provides more than half of the marine products widely available to consumers.
Now when it comes to how Blue Economy is connected to the Green Economies and what the differences are, there is not a very clear answer; the differences are subtle but still recognizable. During the United Nations conference of Rio de Janeiro, in 2012, the ‘Green Economy concept’ was the focal point along with its Institutional Framework for Sustainable Development. In some of the declarations the participants claimed that: “Eradicating poverty is the greatest global challenge facing the world today and an indispensable requirement for sustainable development. In this regard we are committed to freeing humanity from poverty and hunger as a matter of urgency. We consider green economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication as one of the important tools available for achieving sustainable development. We emphasize that it should contribute to eradicating poverty as well as sustained economic growth, enhancing social inclusion, improving human welfare and creating opportunities for employment and decent work for all, while maintaining the healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems.”
This was when multiple island and coastal states, during the preparatory work of the convention, pushed forward the agenda of incorporating the ‘Blue’ notion into the ‘Green’ framework, underlining the importance of the Ocean’s role in a sustainable future. Therefore, the notions are interwoven with the Blue Economy advocating the importance of the seas for sustainability and growth.
In order to better understand the notion, it should be examined under the prism of a strategic playbook, or framework. Australians consider the Blue Economy, at its core, to be about the “development of marine industry which ecologically, economically and socially benefit from marine ecosystem and ensure that the ecosystem-based management model should be the core in decision-making process of industrial and community development.” Australia launched the ‘Blue Well-being Initiative’, having recognized that ocean-based development and the blue GDP is of immense importance for Oceania.
China, through the Director of State Oceanic Administration under the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China, Wang Hong, has underlined that the “Blue Economy is a sustainable marine economic development model. It is a new development mindset and its essence is to develop marine economy while protecting marine ecosystem well and finally achieving sustainable utilization of resources.”
On the other side of the world, Maria Cantwell, a United States Senator, defined it as a powerful policy for future growth focusing on “the jobs and economic opportunities that emerge from our oceans, Great Lakes, and coastal resources – is one of the main tools to rebuilding the United States economy.”
The European Union introduced the term ‘blue growth’ back in 2012, focusing on revitalizing economy, the marine industrial activities, sustainable energy, marine tourism, fisheries and aquaculture. In addition to traditional activities, marine/ocean-oriented information and science sectors are boosting their roles and stretching their contribution to the blue economy development.
Blue Economy can and should be considered a macro-economic lever, involving multiple aspects of national and international governance, economic growth and development, environmental safeguarding and appreciation. It is essentially an effort for integration of sustainable development and green growth. It focused on the coordination and bonding between marine ecosystems and ocean and coastal zone economies.
This being said, Blue Economy is the epitome of sustainability, servicing and connecting what is needed on an economic, cultural and environmental level.
There are of course numerous challenges in achieving such an interwoven bond between so many sectors, with a newly introduced notion. That involves all sectors of the economy from private/industrial to R&D and state policy. This level of complexity offers opportunities and challenges.
For example, the European Commission’s ‘Green Deal’, lists extremely ambitious goals to lead Europe to the very front of environmental protection and in the achievement of the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). With this in consideration, this challenge encourages the submission of innovative proposals based on EU Space data that have the potential to contribute to environmental protection related to the so-called ‘Blue Economy’. Some of the requirement is that the proposals should demonstrate ‘added-value’ in the use of Copernicus and Galileo/EGNOS data, the expected market impact and the extended (social, cultural, environmental) benefits. The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Data Analytics, Internet of Things (IoT), Machine Learning and Cloud Computing as supporting technologies is cherished.
The EU Space for ‘Blue Economy’ Challenge aims at increasing awareness of the potential EU Space data has to respond to global climate and environmental related challenges, but also to stimulate innovative projects that have the potential to open up new markets. This is an interesting and innovative attempt to gamify the transformation, involving the private sector.
The European Commission has long now proposed their ‘Blue Growth’ strategy, stating that Blue Growth will be at the very the core of marine policy and stating clearly objective key results and specific metrics for the future.
The Blue Growth Strategy has spearheaded multiple initiatives related to Europe’s oceans and seas, facilitating the collaboration between maritime businesses and public authorities across borders, and aligning numerous stakeholders ensuring the sustainability of the marine environment. Back In 2014, the Blue Economy Innovation Plan was launched, underlining that the project would be executed with a triple axis:
The EU issued a Report on the Blue Growth Strategy Toward More Sustainable Growth and Jobs in the Blue Economy, examining what has been learnt and what has been achieved since 2012, and the next steps. Five pillars are outlined in that report:
The numbers seem very good though; European economic activities connected to oceans, seas and coastal areas reached a record of 4 million persons employed and it keeps growing, a 7.2% increase compared to 2009 and 14% more than in 2014. This increase was largely driven by the coastal tourism and ports, warehousing and construction of water projects sectors. The blue economy’s contribution in the EU reached almost 2% in terms of employment and 1.3% in terms of GVA. Gross operating profit reached EUR 74.3 billion, being 2% higher than in 2009. Total turnover reached EUR 658 billion, rising 11% more than in 2009. The contribution varies with the five largest EU countries, UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain being the largest contributors to the EU Blue Economy, in terms of both employment (with a combined contribution of 61%) and GVA (a combined contribution of 70%). Other EU countries with remarkable contribution in terms of either GVA or employment include Greece, Holland and Denmark. The Blue Economy represents more than 5% of national GVA or employment in the island Member States and those with significant archipelagos: Greece, Croatia, Malta and Cyprus. Evidently, the Blue Economy’s contribution to the national economy is very low for the landlocked Member States. Member States with a modest contribution to Blue Economy (up to 1% of GDP) are Belgium, Slovenia and Romania.
“Our major contribution to reducing regulatory burden has been the maritime spatial plan directive. The 22 Member States of the European Union with a coastline are free to allocate their space as they see fit but are obliged to develop a plan by 2021 that takes into account the views of stakeholders and the plans of neighbours. The implications of the scenarios for Europe in 2050 highlight the urgency of doing this. They suggest that windfarms could take up 15% of the waters of Belgium, Netherlands and Poland. This will transform the nature and level of human activity on our seas and will surely require changes to where and how other activities such as shipping and fishing take place. The plans will need to be forward looking and flexible enough to take unforeseen circumstances into account. Our seas will be different to what they are today but not necessarily worse in terms of ecosystem health. In fact, they could be healthier. The space between turbines, undisturbed by other activities, could see a return to a pre-industrial state with wild oysters covering the seabed providing food for the sea-life higher up the food chain. By defining what activities can and cannot take place in a given area reduces the time for licensing and the risk for new investments,” Andreea Strachinescu – Head of Unit Maritime Innovation, Marine Knowledge and Investment in the Directorate General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, European Commission, said in her speech at Power & Energy Tech Exhibition and Conference Vision 2030 – PETEC 2019.
“We are looking at higher education – a blue career centre in the Eastern Mediterranean supports mobility, career advice, retraining and e-learning vocational skills, welders, electricians and expect to have a ‘blueprint’ for tackling the issue by 2021. Finally it is essential; that we bring the public on board. Public support was critical to our measures to reduce plastic in the ocean. We want to engage them now on other issues. Even many activists for the climate or the marine environment are unaware of the potential contribution of the ocean for meeting their goals. We are thus developing measures to increase ocean literacy, particularly amongst young people. We are preparing material for teachers based on our Atlas of the seas and will begin testing it with focus groups next year,” she added.
“Oceans, coastal areas and marine activities are playing a crucial role now and in the future of the European Union and its citizens. Healthy oceans and coastal areas are vital for our societies and the future of our planet. They are the lungs of our planet, producing half of the oxygen we breathe. They are a source of healthy food, contributing 16% of the animal protein we eat and provide the basis for numerous economic activities that generate growth and jobs,” Mariya Gabriel, Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, Education and Youth, responsible for the Joint Research Centre (JRC), underlined.
“Though our oceans cover more than 70% of the earth’s surface, we know less about what lies beneath the waves than we do about faraway planets. This prevents us from making the most of our resources while protecting marine ecosystems. The second Report on the European Blue Economy aims to change that. It reflects the importance that the European Commission attaches to a robust, evidence-based approach. Our oceans and seas can help us in tackling the challenges facing humanity; creating prosperity without endangering that of future generations,” Tibor Navracsics, from the European Institute for Innovation, said.
During the 2019 European Maritime Day conference in Lisbon, Commissioner for Environment, Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Karmenu Vella underlined that the focus was on supporting a “blue economy, the sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, through entrepreneurship, investment, and research and innovation.” On this occasion, the European Commission launches the second edition of its Blue Economy Report.
“Coastal regions are home to 214 million people and generate 43% of EU GDP. Today’s report confirms the blue economy’s role as an exciting growth sector, with opportunities both in established sectors like tourism and shipbuilding, and in emerging areas like ocean energy or the blue bioeconomy. Yet we also know that blue economy start-ups and small companies often struggle to get their good ideas off the ground. That is why the European Commission is currently developing an investment-readiness support tool to help them mature and eventually access the funding they need to scale up,” Commissioner Vella stated. He also reiterated the key role of the sea and oceans – in particular ocean energy – towards achieving a carbon-free Europe by 2050.
The most recent blue economy report incorporates various new elements, including the maritime defence and the maritime military equipment sectors. A very interesting element was the in-depth case studies on the economic impacts of marine protected areas and the contribution of the research and development sector.
The financial performance of coastal tourism and exploitation of marine living resources have been steadily on the rise. For fisheries, this is partially due to low fuel prices and partial recovery of some natural populations. Port activities, shipbuilding and maritime transport have been severely affected by the economic crisis in 2008, due to the decrease in global production and trade. Offshore oil and gas extraction have also been hit by the low fuel prices and the oil price wars. Nevertheless, the actual blue economy goes well beyond the established sectors. New innovative and emerging sectors, such as wind energy and biotechnology, have witnessed exponential growth in recent years. However, they are also met with challenges (wind energy production continues to be cheaper on land than offshore).
Another very interesting aspect is the ‘Blue Indicators IT tool’, which will allow to the public to easily visualize, extract and download much of the relevant data. Users will also be able to download reports, as well as the accompanying infographics and the relevant methodology. In addition to the report launch, the European Commission used European Maritime Day to update participants in-depth about several other ongoing maritime policy initiatives:
According to the EU Blue Economy Report 2020 , The Blue Economy is embedded in the overall EU economy and is therefore highly influence by the economic cycle. The EU-28 GDP was estimated at EUR 15900 billion in 2018 (EUR 13500 without the UK) and employment at 224 million people (194 million people without the UK). The contribution of the Blue Economy established sectors to the EU-28 economy in 2018 was 1.5% in terms of GVA and 2.2% in terms of employment.
The relative size of the EU Blue Economy in terms of GVA with respect to the overall economy has remained stable at around 1.5% since 2012, while it has increased in terms of employment from 1.8% in 2015 to more than 2.2% in 2018.
A positive general economic environment supported the EU Blue Economy during the last decade, particularly since the end of the double-dip recession in 2013. However, the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in February 2020 represents a major shock for the global and EU economies, with severe socio-economic consequences. Despite the swift and comprehensive policy response at both the EU and the national level, the EU economy is expected to experience a recession of historic proportions this year, according to the latest Commission economic forecast. The different sectors of the Blue Economy will be significantly impacted.
Blue Economy can be seen as a policy, a project, a framework, a system and an idea. It has the potential to become one of the most viral ideas, spanning from the business applications all the way to cultural and environmental extensions. It is an idea that can also become a way of thinking, a way of acting and a way of designing a better future for the generations to come and the planet they will live on; maybe thinking and acting blue makes a lot of sense for the blue planet after all.
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Tackling climate change, protecting biodiversity and fostering inclusive economic growth will require more than $3 trillion of investments in the world’s oceans in the coming decades..
The world’s oceans help mitigate some of the most severe effects of climate change. Not only do they absorb almost 90% of global warming emissions and produce half of the oxygen we breathe, 1 they also drive economic progress and job creation. Ocean-related industries generate $2.5 trillion of economic value globally and support almost 3 billion people’s livelihoods in industries including seafood, port construction and coastal tourism. 2
But the economic, social and environmental benefits of oceans are at risk. Heightened levels of CO 2 in the atmosphere are making the seas more acidic, threatening species, entire ecosystems and a thriving fishing economy—the ocean’s largest source of direct employment. 3 Approximately 3% of global emissions can be attributed to the maritime shipping industry each year. 4 In addition, rising sea levels and record-setting hurricanes or cyclones could displace coastal communities from Mumbai to Miami—possibly as many as 400 million people this century. 5
Of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the “Life Below Water” goal has received the least amount of public money. 6 But that could change with the recent UN agreement on the High Seas Treaty, a legal framework that creates protected maritime areas and sets 2030 targets to maintain the health and biodiversity of the oceans. 7
“With a framework for ocean conservation now in place, there is a strong case for investors to assess opportunities in the blue economy,” says Jessica Alsford , Morgan Stanley Chief Sustainability Officer and CEO of the Institute for Sustainable Investing . “Over $3 trillion of funding is needed in the coming decades to protect our oceans so that they can continue to play a critical role in tackling climate change, curbing biodiversity loss and supporting inclusive economic growth.”
The blue economy has already attracted diverse investors, with assets in venture capital, public equity and fixed income:
Venture capital firms and other early-stage investors are especially active in circular economy solutions, such as plastic waste reduction and removal; innovative uses for seaweed and other marine life; and emerging blue technologies like tidal turbines.
In public markets, nearly 500 equity funds had an average exposure of more than 3% to the “Life Below Water” goal in 2022, with more than 100 of those funds’ exposures at 10% or more. 8 While some of those funds are dedicated solely to water, others consider broader themes in which healthy oceans play a crucial role, such as the future of food production or the clean energy transition.
In the fixed-income space, blue bonds are beginning to emerge to fund sustainable ocean economy projects. For example, Morgan Stanley acted as joint bookrunner for The Export-Import Bank of Korea’s $3.5 billion bond issuance in 2022, which included a $1 billion blue tranche for sustainable marine transportation.
Meeting the UN High Seas Treaty’s commitments and supporting a sustainable blue economy will require the continued participation of public and private funds, as well as philanthropic and non-governmental organizations. The four largest areas for investment are:
Measuring Investment Opportunities in the Blue Economy
Oceans are the world’s highway: Maritime shipping carries 80% of global trade by volume and 70% by value, 9 and approximately 3% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to the industry. 10 The International Maritime Organization, which regulates ship emissions, set a goal in 2018 to halve the emissions from the industry by 2050 11 through low-carbon fuel, ship modification and other solutions. Those efforts are expected to cost $50 billion to $70 billion annually from 2030 to 2050. 12
2. Marine Solutions to Protect Ecosystems
As sea levels rise, coastal communities will need ways to protect critical infrastructure, such as roads and homes. Marine nature-based solutions, such as seagrass beds, mangroves and salt marshes, are proven to protect coastal communities from storms and flooding while also removing carbon from the atmosphere. Scaling these solutions will require approximately $1.1 trillion in investment between 2022 and 2050. 13
3. Marine Renewable Energy
Oceans could unlock more opportunities to facilitate the global transition to clean energy. Fixed offshore wind farms in shallow coastal waters are currently the largest marine-based source of clean energy. However, other technologies are also emerging, such as floating offshore wind turbines in deeper waters and tools to harness wave and tidal energy. By 2040, global offshore wind sites could meet projected demand for almost all global electricity needs. 14 To move toward a clean energy economy, wind farm construction will require $840 billion in capital expenditures. 15
4. Sustainable Aquaculture
Approximately half of global seafood production today comes from farmed sources, or aquaculture, mostly in Asia. The other half comes from wild fish stocks, which are facing pressure from overfishing as global seafood demand continues to grow. 16 Expanding aquaculture to meet this demand is a major investment opportunity, with an estimated $150 billion to $300 billion in capital expenditures needed to expand capacity in the next 10 years, 17 which should be accompanied with efforts to mitigate the water pollution and labor risks inherent to the aquaculture industry. In some cases, sustainable aquaculture can also serve climate objectives as fish farms can also be co-located with new renewable energy sites and farmed seafood is a comparatively low-carbon source of protein.
Identifying key performance indicators for blue economy projects can be complex, and investors should monitor how standardization and metrics evolve. There’s no single metric to quantify impact toward ocean economy goals as there is for land-based projects that aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To address this, the International Capital Markets Association is formalizing guidance for "Blue Bond" issuance, 18 and an industry collective recently created the Ocean Impact Framework, which identified more than 30 KPIs across six impact themes. 19 Investors should use both to help assess the climate, biodiversity and socioeconomic effects of blue economy investments alongside financial performance.
Alissa Peterson of ocean-focused venture capital firm SeaAhead contributed insights to this piece. Alissa Peterson and SeaAhead are not employed by or affiliated with Morgan Stanley or any of its affiliates.
1 Why should we care about the ocean? (noaa.gov)
2 Sustainable Blue Finance – United Nations Environment – Finance Initiative (unepfi.org)
3 Understanding Ocean Acidification | NOAA Fisheries ; The Ocean Economy in 2030 | en | OECD
4 World Bank Carbon revenues from shipping: A game changer for the energy transition (worldbank.org)
5 Sea level rise poses ‘unthinkable’ risks for the planet, Security Council hears | UN News
6 Public money refers to government investment as well as Official Development Assistance (ODA) ACCELERATING INVESTMENTS IN SDG 14 AND THE SUSTAINABLE BLUE ECONOMY | Department of Economic and Social Affairs (un.org)
7 UN delegates reach historic agreement on protecting marine biodiversity in international waters | UN News
8 Based on Institute analysis of Morningstar data
9 Turning the Tide: How to Finance a Sustainable Ocean Recovery – United Nations Environment – Finance Initiative (unepfi.org)
10 World Bank Carbon revenues from shipping: A game changer for the energy transition (worldbank.org)
11 Cutting GHG emissions from shipping - 10 years of mandatory rules (imo.org)
12 NEW STUDY BY UMAS SHOWS THAT DECARBONISATION OF THE SHIPPING SECTOR IS A WHOLE SYSTEM CHALLENGE AND NOT SOMETHING JUST FOR SHIPPING. – UMAS (u-mas.co.uk)
13 State of Finance for Nature 2022 | UNEP - UN Environment Programme
14 Wind - Fuels & Technologies - IEA
15 IEA Offshore Wind Outlook 2019: World Energy Outlook Special Report (windows.net)
16 Turning the Tide: How to Finance a Sustainable Ocean Recovery – United Nations Environment – Finance Initiative (unepfi.org)
17 How Investors Can Turn the Tide on Aquaculture (nature.org)
18 IFC, ICMA, UNGC, UNEP FI, and ADB Announce Coalition to Support the Blue Economy
19 Navigator | 1000 Ocean Startups
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This material was published on April 11, 2023, and has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument, or to participate in any trading strategy. This material does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all investors. It should not be assumed that the securities transactions or holdings discussed were or will be profitable. Morgan Stanley recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and encourages investors to seek the advice of a Financial Advisor.
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More investors are turning to ETFs for ESG investments that target large-scale global challenges.
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Climate-related issues such as water scarcity, natural disasters and access to electricity have a disproportionate effect on at-risk female populations. Here’s what investors can do.
The latest employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for June 2024 offers a compelling snapshot of the divergent economic fortunes of red and blue states. The national unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1 percent, a modest increase of 0.5 percentage points from June 2023. Yet, beneath these headline figures lie significant contrasts between states, particularly economically vibrant red and struggling blue states, with Texas and California as prime examples.
Texas continues to exemplify the benefits of more free-market policies, evidenced by its impressive employment growth and relatively low unemployment rate. Over the past year, Texas added 267,400 nonfarm jobs in a pro-growth environment and favorable regulatory climate.
According to the Texas Workforce Commission , the state’s civilian labor force now exceeds 15.3 million, highlighting the ongoing expansion of job opportunities. This growth is supported by a diverse economy encompassing technology, energy, and healthcare industries. The unemployment rate in Texas stood at 4.1 percent in June, mirroring the national average but significantly lower than California’s 5.2 percent rate.
Texas’ economic model emphasizes fiscal responsibility, including adopting more sustainable budgeting practices . This has helped the Lone Star State claim the 7th best fiscal freedom according to the Cato Institute’s Freedom in the 50 States . The state also ranks 20th in regulatory freedom and 17th overall when considering economic and personal freedoms. Texas ensures that its budget remains manageable by limiting government spending growth to less than the rate of population growth plus inflation over much of the last decade . This approach keeps taxes low and promotes long-term economic stability and growth. However, the current irresponsible budget , which increased by more than 20 percent , challenges past budget successes in Texas and should be addressed in the next session in 2025.
California, on the other hand, presents a stark contrast. Despite adding 223,600 jobs over the year, California’s unemployment rate rose to 5.2 percent, the second highest in the nation, just behind the District of Columbia at 5.4 percent. This increase underscores the state’s challenges, including high taxes, stringent regulations, and a high cost of living, which collectively stifle business growth and job creation.
According to the Freedom in the 50 States report, California ranks 48th in fiscal freedom, 49th in regulatory freedom, and 48th in overall freedom. The Golden State ranks poorly compared with Texas and all but two states, New York and Hawaii, regarding overall economic freedom. California’s economic struggles are not a recent phenomenon. Over the years, the state’s policies have created an environment less conducive to business investment and innovation. High-profile businesses and individuals have been leaving the state, seeking more favorable conditions in states like Texas, further exacerbating the economic divide. The Wall Street Journal recently reported the Internal Revenue Service’s latest migration data for net adjusted gross income by state in 2022 showed California had the largest net loss of $23.8 billion while Texas had the second largest net gain of $21 billion, next to Florida of $36 billion. This is yet another example of how people and businesses move from high-tax to lower-tax states.
The broader employment trends in the June 2024 report revealed that eight states saw an increase in unemployment rates while only one state experienced a decrease. The majority of states, however, saw no significant change in their jobless rates. South Dakota boasted the lowest unemployment rate at 2.0 percent, followed closely by North Dakota and Vermont at 2.1 percent.
In contrast, states with more interventionist economic policies, like California and Nevada, struggled with higher unemployment rates of 5.2 percent. This trend highlights the broader pattern where states with more market-friendly policies enjoy better employment outcomes.
The BLS data also shows that nonfarm payroll employment increased in eight states in June 2024, with North Carolina, Massachusetts, and Virginia leading in job gains. Over the year, 27 states saw employment increases, with Texas, California, and Florida posting the largest gains in absolute numbers. These large job gains often reflect the fact that these states have the largest populations, but what’s revealing is that the percent increases over that year were just 1.3 percent in California while a more robust 1.9 percent in Texas and 2.0 percent in Florida.
The nuances become clear when considering these states’ economic policies and environments. States like Texas and Florida, prioritizing low taxes and minimal regulation, have created environments where businesses can thrive. This is reflected in their strong job growth and relatively low unemployment rates. In contrast, states with higher taxes and more regulatory burdens, such as California, face more significant economic challenges despite adding jobs.
A significant aspect of the economic success seen in many red states, including Texas, is their embrace of the state flat tax revolution . This movement, which simplifies tax codes and lowers rates, has been crucial in attracting businesses and encouraging investment. By moving toward flat taxes, states can reduce the complexity and burden of taxation, making them more competitive and appealing to businesses and workers.
This revolution is part of a broader trend towards sustainable budgeting, where states aim to maintain fiscal discipline while ensuring they do not overburden their citizens with high taxes. The success of states like Texas in implementing these policies demonstrates the potential for other states to achieve similar economic prosperity by adopting these principles.
The stark differences in economic outcomes between red and blue states underscore the importance of policy choices. Red states like Texas continue demonstrating that free-market principles lead to more robust economic growth and better employment outcomes. For policymakers, the lessons are clear:
As we look to the future, it is crucial that states learn from these examples. By adopting policies prioritizing economic freedom and reducing government intervention, states can create environments where businesses flourish, and jobs are plentiful for widespread prosperity. The contrasting fortunes of Texas and California serve as a powerful reminder that policy decisions have real-world consequences.
States can pave the way for a prosperous future by examining these trends and implementing effective policies.
Vance Ginn, Ph.D., is founder and president of Ginn Economic Consulting, LLC and an Associate Research Fellow with AIER. He is chief economist at Pelican Institute for Public Policy and senior fellow at Americans for Tax Reform. He previously served as the associate director for economic policy of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, 2019-20.
Follow him: @VanceGinn .
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The latest employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for June 2024 offers a compelling snapshot of the divergent economic fortunes of red and blue states. The national unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1 percent, a modest increase of 0.5 percentage points from June 2023.