case study example of extreme weather

Extreme Weather and Climate Change

As the climate changes, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are increasing.

As Earth’s climate changes, it is impacting extreme weather across the planet. Record-breaking heat waves on land and in the ocean, drenching rains, severe floods, years-long droughts, extreme wildfires, and widespread flooding during hurricanes are all becoming more frequent and more intense.

Human actions since the Industrial Revolution, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, have caused greenhouse gases to rapidly rise in the atmosphere. As carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases increase, they act as a blanket, trapping heat and warming the planet. In response, Earth’s air and ocean temperatures warm. This warming affects the water cycle, shifts weather patterns, and melts land ice — all impacts that can make extreme weather worse.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Sixth Assessment Report released in 2021, the human-caused rise in greenhouse gases has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. NASA’s satellite missions, including the upcoming Earth System Observatory , provide vital data for monitoring and responding to extreme weather events.

What are the effects of climate change on extreme weather?

Research says all the risks from these extreme weather events will escalate the more the planet warms. However, IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report also describes some climate change mitigation strategies, technological developments, and methods for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

How do scientists determine if changes in extreme weather events are linked to climate change?

Scientists use a combination of climate models (simulations) and land, air, sea, and space-based observations to research how extreme weather events change over time. First, scientists examine historical records to determine the frequency and intensity of past events. Many of these long-term records date back to the 1950s, though some start in the 1800s. Then scientists use climate models to see if the number or strength of these events is changing, or will change, due to increasing greenhouse gases when compared to what has happened historically.

IPCC Assessment Report 6 – Working Group I – Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis

IPCC Assessment Report 6 – Working Group II – Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

IPCC Assessment Report 6 – Working Group III – Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change

NASA Global Climate Change - Mitigation and Adaptation

NASA Global Climate Change - Extreme Makeover: Human Activities Are Making Some Extreme Events More Frequent or Intense

Header image is of a corn field impacted by drought in Texas on December 1, 2016. Credit: USGS/USDA/Bob Nichols

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Extreme Weather Events and Human Health

International Case Studies

• © 2020
• Rais Akhtar 0

International Institute of Health Management Research (IIHMR) Delhi, New Delhi, India

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Is the first book discussing the impacts of extreme weather events covering all continents

Includes case studies from both developed and developing countries

Describes various adaptation strategies as well as mitigation measures adopted by various countries in geographically different regions

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About this book

This edited book assesses the impacts of various extreme weather events on human health and development from a global perspective, and includes several case studies in various geographical regions around the globe. 

Further, the book discusses the economic damage resulting from natural disasters including hurricanes. It has been estimated that in 2017 natural disasters and climate change resulted in economic losses of 309 billion US dollars. Scientists also predict that if nothing is done to curb the effects of climate change, in Europe the death toll due to weather disasters could rise 50-fold by the end of the 21st century, with extreme heat alone causing more than 150,000 deaths a year, as the report on global warming of 1.5°C warns that China, Russia and Canada’s current climate policies would steer the world above a catastrophic 5°C of warming by the end of 2100. As such, the book highlights how the wellbeing of different populations is threatened by extreme events now and in the foreseeable future.

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Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events and Health Effects

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Climate Change, Extreme Weather and Climate Events, and Health Impacts

• Human Health Scenarios
• Weather Disasters
• Climate Change in Developing Countries
• Climate Change in Developed Countries
• Disaster Impact on Human Health
• Disease Outbreaks
• Drought and Floods
• medical geography
• climate change impacts
• meteorology

Table of contents (25 chapters)

Front matter, introductory, introduction: extreme weather events and human health: a global perspective.

Rais Akhtar

Dust Storms and Human Health

• Andrew S. Goudie

Developed Countries

The impacts of climate change on health and development in canadian arctic and sub-arctic communities in the twenty-first century: a systematic review.

• Fox Underwood, Stefania Bertazzon

Wildland Fire, Extreme Weather and Society: Implications of a History of Fire Suppression in California, USA

• Donald Schweizer, Tom Nichols, Ricardo Cisneros, Kathleen Navarro, Trent Procter

Extreme Weather Events and Air Pollution Peaks in the Light of Climate Change: The Limits of the Notion of Risk

• Isabelle Roussel

Extreme Weather and Human Health in Italy

• Cosimo Palagiano

Impact of Hurricanes on Mental Health

• Olaniyi Olayinka, Muge Akpinar-Elci

Climate Change, Wildfires, Heatwaves and Health Impacts in Australia

• Nicolas Borchers Arriagada, David M. J. S. Bowman, Andrew J. Palmer, Fay H. Johnston

Climate Adaptation of Sea-Level Rise in Hong Kong

• Yun Fat Lam, Shimul Roy

Heat-Related Mortality/Morbidity in East Asia

• Yasushi Honda, Daisuke Onozuka

Thunderstorms During Pollen Season as Risk Factors for Allergic Respiratory Diseases and Severe Asthma

• Gennaro D’Amato, Maria D’Amato

Developing Countries

Sea level rise and its socio-economic impacts: a case study in mumbai, india.

• Gandharva Pednekar, S. Siva Raju

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Communities

• Michele Kekeh, Muge Akpinar-Elci, Michael J. Allen

Storm Surges, Heavy Rain and Strong Wind: Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Winston in Fiji—Focus on Health

• Helene Jacot Des Combes

Extreme Weather Events and Health Responses in Taiwan

• Li-San Hung, Mei-Hui Li

Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Occupational Health in Thailand

• Uma Langkulsen, Desire Rwodzi

Editors and Affiliations

About the editor.

Prof.  Rais Akhtar is Adjunct Professor CO-P.I. on the Dept. of Science and Technology (Govt. of India) Project on climate change and health, at the International Institute of Health Management and Research, New Delhi, New Delhi. 

Bibliographic Information

Book Title : Extreme Weather Events and Human Health

Book Subtitle : International Case Studies

Editors : Rais Akhtar

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-23773-8

Publisher : Springer Cham

eBook Packages : Earth and Environmental Science , Earth and Environmental Science (R0)

Copyright Information : Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Hardcover ISBN : 978-3-030-23772-1 Published: 27 November 2019

Softcover ISBN : 978-3-030-23775-2 Published: 27 November 2020

eBook ISBN : 978-3-030-23773-8 Published: 15 November 2019

Edition Number : 1

Number of Pages : XVIII, 382

Number of Illustrations : 13 b/w illustrations, 70 illustrations in colour

Topics : Medical Geography , Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts , Environmental Health , Human Geography , Meteorology , Environmental Management

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Multiple Authors

In the early 2000s, a new field of climate-science research emerged that began to explore the human fingerprint on extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms.

Known as “extreme event attribution”, the field has gained momentum, not only in the science world, but also in the media and public imagination . These studies have the power to link the seemingly abstract concept of climate change with personal and tangible experiences of the weather .

Scientists have published more than 400 peer-reviewed studies looking at weather extremes around the world, from wildfires in the US and heatwaves in India and Pakistan to typhoons in Asia and record-breaking rainfall in the UK . The result is mounting evidence that human activity is raising the risk of some types of extreme weather, especially those linked to heat.

To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped – to the best of our knowledge – every extreme-weather attribution study published to date.

Carbon Brief’s analysis reveals:

• 71% of the 504 extreme weather events and trends included in the map were found to be made more likely or more severe by human-caused climate change. 
• 9% of events or trends were made less likely or less severe by climate change, meaning 80% of all events experienced some human impact. The remaining 20% of events and trends showed no discernible human influence or were inconclusive.
• Of the 152 extreme heat events that have been assessed by scientists, 93% found that climate change made the event or trend more likely or more severe. 
• For the 126 rainfall or flooding events studied, 56% found human activity had made the event more likely or more severe. For the 81 drought events studied, it’s 68%.

First published in July 2017, this article is the fifth annual update (see endnote) to incorporate new studies. The aim is that it serves as a tracker for the evolving field of “extreme event attribution”.

Using the map

The map above shows 504 extreme weather events and trends across the globe for which scientists have carried out attribution studies. The different symbols show the type of extreme weather; for example, a heatwave, flood or drought. The colours indicate whether the attribution study found a link to human-caused climate change (red), no link (blue) or was inconclusive (grey).

Use the plus and minus buttons in the top-left corner, or double click anywhere, to zoom in on any part of the world. Click on a symbol to reveal more information, including a quote from the original paper to summarise the findings and a link to the online version.

The filter on the left allows users to select a specific type of weather event to look at or, for example, only those found to be influenced by climate change.

The filter can also be used to highlight extreme events from a particular year. (Note: earlier versions of this map classified events by the year that the study or analysis was published.) To isolate studies that assess the changing trends of weather extremes, click the “trend” box in the filter.

The software used to make the map currently only works with a Web Mercator projection (as used by virtually all major online map providers). It is worth noting that this – like all map projections – offers a somewhat distorted view of the world.

It is important to note that the weather events scientists have studied so far are not randomly chosen. They can be high-profile events, such as Hurricane Harvey , or simply the events that occurred nearest to scientific research centres. (More on this below.)

The map includes three different types of studies. The circles and hexagons on the map indicate papers published in peer-reviewed journals. The different shapes refer to whether the study considers an individual extreme event (circles), such as a wildfire or storm, or whether it analyses longer-term trends in extreme weather (hexagons), such as the change in frequency of flooding or marine heatwaves over time.

The third shape – triangles – indicate rapid attribution studies. These are quickfire assessments of the climate change contribution to extreme weather events, published online shortly after an event concludes. (More on this below.) 

Finally, it is worth noting that some of the icon locations are approximate – particularly for studies that cover large regions. For example, global studies can be found grouped together in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

Extreme weather types

The events and trends shown on the map are covered by 431 individual scientific papers or rapid studies. Where a single study covers multiple events or locations, these have been separated out into individual entries on the map.

Combining the evidence over the past 20 years, the literature is heavily dominated by studies of extreme heat (30%), rainfall or flooding (25%) and drought (16%). Together, these make up more than two-thirds of all published studies (71%). The full list is available in this Google sheet .

As the chart below shows, the number of extreme events studied has grown substantially over the past 10-15 years. Note that formal studies typically follow a year or so after the event itself as the writing and peer-review process for journal papers can take many months.

The majority of studies included here have been published in the annual “Explaining extreme events” special issues of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ( BAMS ). Each bumper volume typically contains around 15-30 peer-reviewed studies of events from the previous year. Other studies have been found through the Climate Signals database and online searches through journals. This update includes studies published up to the end of May 2022.

(Note: The map currently only includes studies published in English.)

Specific types of event can be displayed in the chart below by clicking on the category names at the top.

Most of the categories of extreme weather are self-explanatory, but “storms” and “oceans” require a bit of explanation.

For ease of presentation, the “storms” category includes both tropical cyclones – such as hurricanes and typhoons – and extratropical storms . The “oceans” category encompasses studies looking at marine heatwaves , storm surges and the strength of El Niño events .

Newer categories include “coral bleaching” and “ecosystem services”, reflecting the ongoing developments in attribution science. For example, a rapid attribution study concluded that climate change had “drastically” increased the likelihood of the conditions leading to bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 – by at least 175 times. And a 2022 study found that “extremely early” cherry-tree flowering in Kyoto in March 2021 was made “15 times more likely” by climate change.

For this latest iteration of the map, a new category of “compound” extreme events has also been added. This includes, for example, a 2021 study that found climate change had contributed to the “high likelihood” of combined dry and hot events in recent decades over most of China.

Such studies show that attribution studies are increasingly considering the impacts of extremes, rather than focusing purely on the weather event. 

One of the first of these “impact attribution” studies was published in 2016. It estimated that 506 of the 735 fatalities in Paris during the 2003 European heatwave were down to the fact that climate change had made the heat more intense than it would otherwise have been. The same was true for 64 of the 315 fatalities in London, the study said. Health impacts have increasingly become a focus of attribution studies.

Similarly, a 2021 study found that 37% of “warm-season heat-related deaths” across 43 countries between 1991 and 2018 “can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent”. Another 2021 study , which the authors unpacked in a Carbon Brief guest post, found that climate change was a “critical driver” of the drought that led to a food crisis in Lesotho in 2007. And a third 2021 study – also the subject of a Carbon Brief guest post – on the rising threat of an “outburst flood” from glacial lakes in the Peruvian Andes found that the retreat of the region’s glaciers was “entirely attributable” to human-caused warming.

This shift towards impacts “is quite significant”, says Prof Peter Stott , who leads the climate monitoring and attribution team at the Met Office Hadley Centre and has been a co-editor of the BAMS reports since they began in 2012. He tells Carbon Brief:

“Impacts are hard to do because you have to establish a significant link between the meteorology and the impact in question. As editors, we’ve been trying to encourage more studies on impacts because it’s the impacts rather than the meteorology per se that tends to motivate these types of study – and if we only have the attribution on the meteorological event then we only have an indirect link to the relevant impact.” 

Attribution of climate impacts could even be used in the courts, one 2021 study explained. The authors wrote a Carbon Brief guest post explaining how attribution science can be “translated into legal causality”. They wrote:

“Attribution can bridge the gap identified by judges between a general understanding that human-induced climate change has many negative impacts and providing concrete evidence of the role of climate change at a specific location for a specific extreme event that already has led or will lead to damages.”

Finally, attribution research has also identified the “signal” of human influence in other indicators of climate change, such as increasing average temperature , rising lake temperatures or sea level rise . Recent research has even been able to detect the fingerprint of climate change “from any single day in the observed global record since early 2012, and since 1999 on the basis of a year of data”. These types of studies have not been included in the attribution map as the focus here is on extremes.

Human influence on extreme weather

Of the attribution studies included here, scientists found that human-caused climate change has altered the likelihood or severity of an extreme weather event in 80% of cases studied (71% made more severe or likely and 9% made less so).

In Carbon Brief’s first edition of this analysis in 2017, 68% of events were found to have a human impact (with 63% made more severe or likely and 6% less so).

While these figures are not representative of all extreme weather events – attribution studies have only been conducted on a relatively small number – previous research has taken this broader view. For example, a 2015 study estimated the fraction of all globally occurring heat and heavy rainfall extremes that was attributable to warming. The authors found that around 75% of “moderate daily hot extremes over land” and 18% of “moderate daily precipitation extremes over land” were attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times. These fractions are expected to increase with further warming, the authors noted.

There are several ways of carrying out an attribution analysis. (A team of attribution scientists wrote a  Carbon Brief  guest post in 2021 that unpacks their methods.) One of the most common is to take observations and/or climate model simulations of an extreme event in the current climate and compare them with idealised model runs of that event in a world without human-caused global warming. The difference between the “with” and “without” climate change simulations indicates how the likelihood or severity of that extreme event has changed.

Note that events are classified here as having an human impact if climate change is found to have influenced at least one aspect of that event. For example, a study of the 2011 East Africa drought found that climate change contributed to the failure of the “long rains” in early 2011, but that the lack of “short rains” in late 2010 was down to the climate phenomenon La Niña . This event is, thus, designated as having a human impact.

For the majority of events affected by climate change, the balance has shifted in the same direction. That is, rising temperatures made the event in question more severe or more likely to occur. These events are represented by the red in the chart below. Clicking on the red “slice” reveals that heatwaves account for 40% of such events, rainfall or flooding for 20%, and droughts for 15%. Return to the original chart, and do the same with the other slices to see the proportion of different weather types in each category.

In 11% of extreme weather events and trends studied, scientists found no discernible influence from human activity. These are coloured blue in the map and the chart above. For a further 9%, the observational data or modelling techniques used in the study were insufficient to reach a reliable conclusion (shown as grey in the map and pie chart).

In 9% of studied weather events and trends, scientists found climate change had made the event less likely or less severe (pale orange in the chart above).

Unsurprisingly, this category includes blizzards and extreme cold snaps . However, it also features a few studies that suggest climate change has lessened the chances of heavy rainfall, and another that found rising temperatures have made agricultural drought in California less likely.

Drought is complicated (more on this below). Briefly, though, it is worth noting that five other studies looking at different aspects of the California drought over 2011-17 found climate change had played a role . Two found no discernible link (pdf, p7-15), while one was inconclusive (pdf, p3).

Interestingly, a 2020 study analysed the way links between climate change and the California drought were portrayed in US media. It finds that the links were “covered widely in both local and national news”, but notes:

“However, legitimate differences in the methods underpinning the attribution studies performed by different researchers often resulted in a frame of scientific uncertainty or disagreement in the media coverage.”

As the case of California’s drought shows, it is often necessary to dig deeper to understand the full picture. The rest of this article looks at the evidence for the three most-studied types of extreme weather – heatwaves, heavy rain and floods, and droughts – as well as some of the main issues in event attribution, and where the field as a whole is heading.

The attribution map includes studies of 152 extreme heat events, of which 142 (93%) have been made more likely or more severe because of climate change. No studies have found a heatwave that has been made less severe by climate change, while studies of two events (1%) identified no influence and a further eight (5%) were inconclusive.  

In recent years, studies have shown that several heat extremes would have been impossible or virtually impossible without human influence on the climate. These include Siberia’s heatwave of 2020, the Pacific north-west “ heat dome ” event of 2021 and Europe’s record-breaking summer of 2021 . 

The studies on extreme heat that did not find a role for climate change were an analysis of the Russian heatwave in 2010 and a rapid attribution study of the all-time high temperatures recorded in Rajasthan, India in May 2016. For the latter, the authors suggested that “the lack of a detectable trend may be due to the masking effect of aerosols on global warming and increased use of irrigation”.

While heatwaves are the most-studied extreme event in attribution literature, they are becoming “less and less interesting for researchers”, notes a Bloomberg article from 2020. Dr Friederike Otto is a senior lecturer at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London and co-leader of World Weather Attribution , a consortium of scientific organisations founded in 2014 to deliver “timely and scientifically reliable information on how extreme weather may be affected by climate change”. She told Bloomberg that the consortium chose not to investigate California’s record-breaking summer 2020 heatwave as “the evidence is so strong already”.

A particularly well-studied region for heatwaves in the literature is Australia, which accounts for 10% of the heat-related events included here. And climate change was found to play a role in all but one of the 15 Australian heat events studied. It is worth noting for that one event, however, that although the study (pdf, p145) was inconclusive for the city of Melbourne in south-east Australia, the authors did detect a human influence on extreme heat up the coast in Adelaide.

This raises a few important points. First, finding that climate change contributed to an event is not the same as saying it “caused” that event. Attribution is about working out if the likelihood or magnitude of a particular event happening now is different from what it would be in a world that was not warming.

A useful analogy – as explained in the first BAMS report in 2012 – is of a baseball player who starts taking steroids. If the player begins hitting 20% more home runs than before, it would not be possible to say for sure whether a particular home run is because of the steroids or the player’s spontaneous skill. But it is possible to say how the steroids have altered the likelihood that the player hits a home run, by comparing their current and historical performances. As the report put it:

“Given that steroids have resulted in a 20% increased chance that any particular swing of the player’s bat results in a home run, you would be able to make an attribution statement that, all other things being equal, steroid use had increased the probability of that particular occurrence by 20%.”

Another important point is that in cases where attribution science finds that climate change is making a given type of extreme weather more likely, it does not necessarily follow that the chance of experiencing that kind of weather gets incrementally higher each year. Natural variability means that there will still be ups and downs in the strength and frequency of extreme events.

Finally, there is usually a level of confidence attached to attribution results. So, while two studies might both find a role for human influence in a given weather event, the signal may be stronger for one than the other. For the purposes of this analysis, the attribution map does not distinguish between high- and low-confidence results, but users can click through to each study for more details.

Heavy rain and flooding

Of the 126 rainfall or flooding events included in the attribution map, 71 (56%) found human activity had made the event more likely or more severe – a far smaller proportion than for heat-related studies. Nineteen studies (15%) found that climate change had made the whole event less likely to occur. Of the remaining heavy rainfall events, studies of 24 (19%) found no evidence of a link to climate change, while 12 (10%) were inconclusive.

That there is a more divided set of results for extreme rainfall than for heatwaves could suggest several things. In some cases, limited data might make it difficult to detect a clear “signal” of climate change above the “noise” of weather considered normal for a particular region. In other cases, an inconclusive result could reflect the fact that rainfall or flooding events are inherently more complex than heatwaves, with many ways for natural variability to play a role. Human factors, such as land use and drainage, also play a part in whether heavy rain leads to flooding.

Take the UK, for example. While one study found climate change had increased the risk of floods in England and Wales in Autumn 2000 by at least 20% (and even up to 90%), another found little influence on summer rainfall in 2012 (pdf, p36).

This raises another important point. When it comes to interpreting the results of event attribution studies, it matters what the question is. For example, a 2013 study asked whether recent wet summers in north-western Europe were a response to retreating Arctic sea ice (pdf, p32). The answer from the study was “no”. But, as a foreword from that year’s BAMs report explains:

“Given the numerous ways climate change could influence precipitation in this region, a ‘no’ result for the role of Arctic sea ice should not be interpreted as an absence of any role at all for climate change.”

This is similar to an argument made by Dr Kevin Trenberth , distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research , and colleagues in a Nature Climate Change “perspective” article in 2015. 

The paper notes that, in a chaotic weather system, the complex dynamics of the atmosphere mean the size and path of a storm or heavy rainfall event has a large element of chance. This can make it tricky to identify where climate change fits in, potentially underestimating its influence.

Therefore, rather than analysing the weather patterns that bring a storm to an area, the authors argue that scientists should be looking at how the impact of that storm has been boosted by temperature changes –  known as “thermodynamic” effects. Higher temperatures mean warmer seas, higher sea levels and more moisture evaporating into the atmosphere. These are changes that scientists can be more confident in, the authors wrote, and so should be the focus for attribution studies – rather than looking at changes to circulation patterns in the atmosphere.

For example, the paper reexamines an earlier study (pdf, p15) that suggested climate change had reduced the chances of the five-day heavy rainfall event that hit north-east Colorado in September 2013. Trenberth and colleagues argue that while climate change might not have made the specific weather system that brought the rain more likely, it will have contributed to the sheer volume of moisture in the atmosphere.

While attribution studies of heatwaves are generally more straightforward than storms – as they focus on thermodynamic influences – the type of question they are asking is still important. The Russian heatwave in 2010 is a good example of this. One study looking at the severity of the event did not find a role for climate change. Yet another one , which did find an influence, looked at the likelihood of the event.

This apparent contradiction is tackled by a third study that reconciles the other two. It explains that “the same event can be both mostly internally-generated [i.e. by natural variability] in terms of magnitude and mostly externally-driven [i.e. by human-caused climate change] in terms of occurrence probability”. 

Otto, who is lead author of the third study, tells Carbon Brief:

“The studies, thus, only appear to be contradictory, but are, in fact, complementary.”

It is also important to stress that the absence of evidence for a link to climate change is not the same as evidence of absence. In other words, it does not necessarily mean there was no human influence, just that a particular analysis did not find one. This is why a single study should never be considered the final word on how climate change influences a given type of extreme weather.

Of the 81 drought events and trends considered here, climate change was found to have increased the severity or likelihood of 55 (68%). Of the remainder, the likelihood or severity was reduced for one event (1%), while no discernible link with human activity was found for 15 (19%) and 10 (12%) were inconclusive.

Capetonians queue for water at natural springs around the city during the water crisis, January 2018. Credit: tim wege / Alamy Stock Photo

This mixed bag of results reflects the inherent complexity of droughts. And, again, the specific question matters. Conclusions about the role of climate change in a specific drought could depend on whether a study looks at temperature, rainfall or soil moisture, for example.

As the 2015 BAMS report explains:

“Drought continues to be an event type where the results require significant context, and easy answers often remain elusive because of the many meteorological, hydrological, and societal drivers that combine to cause drought.”

(For more on the different ways that droughts can be categorised, see this Carbon Brief guest post from 2018.)

Geographical reach

While much has been achieved in the field of extreme event attribution in a short space of time, scientists are constantly looking for ways to tailor their work to suit the people who might use it.

One major goal since the early days of the field has been to expand extreme event attribution to cover a larger and more diverse geographical area. 

Where in the world scientists can carry out attribution studies – and for what kind of events – will always be limited by the quality and availability of observed data and appropriate models. The attribution map highlights, for example, that there are relatively few studies of extreme weather in Africa and South America. 

In another example, scientists hoping to analyse Super Typhoon Mangkhut – which hit the Philippines in September 2018 – were unable to in part because of “very poor quality” observed data in publicly available datasets and a lack of models.

At the moment, there is also a heavy leaning towards weather events that are local to the modelling groups, or that have a particular scientific interest. Otto explains:

“For example, scientists often do attribution studies because an event occurs on their doorstep. The UK, California and Boulder [in Colorado] are, therefore, studied much more than other parts of the world, but that does not necessarily make them places particularly impacted by climate change.”

This means that while the studies carried out so far are indicative of the role climate change is playing in extreme weather around the world, they should not be considered representative of all types of extreme weather everywhere, says Otto. She tells Carbon Brief:

“[The studies so far] are part of a picture, but we don’t know what’s on the missing puzzle pieces. And, crucially, we don’t know how many pieces are missing.”

For example, Otto recently penned a Carbon Brief guest post on how the lack of monitoring of heatwaves in Africa means they are a “forgotten impact” of climate change.

Real-time extreme weather attribution

As well as expanding the science to cover different types of weather and more of the world, scientists are getting faster at turning the handle on extreme event attribution studies – sometimes crunching the numbers just days after an event has occurred. 

The rapid studies included here are all produced by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative, described earlier, or the UK Met Office.

An example of analysis performed by the latter includes their review of the UK’s weather in 2020, which was published by Carbon Brief . This showed that climate change increased the likelihood of the UK’s warm year by approximately a factor of 50.

While the WWA individual rapid assessments are not individually peer-reviewed, they are conducted using methods that have been through the peer-review process. As the 2014 BAMS report explains:

“Much like other routine analysis, such as an operational seasonal forecast, statements made about heat events using these methods do not necessarily need to go through the peer-reviewed literature to be considered credible.”

By conducting the analysis in the immediate aftermath of a weather event, these rapid studies provide almost-real-time information on the influence of climate change, rather than having to wait many months for a formal study.

(In some cases, these rapid assessments are later published in peer-reviewed journals. In these instances, the formal study is included in the attribution map, rather than the initial analysis. In some cases, this means earlier rapid assessments are removed from the Carbon Brief map in order to add in the relevant peer-reviewed paper once it is published.)

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been working on a pilot “ operational attribution service ” through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). 

This collaboration between the UK Met Office, German weather service (DWD), Meteo France , Dutch weather service (KNMI) and the University of Oxford will “demonstrate how attribution of extreme weather events can be carried out operationally by national meteorological services”, Prof Stott tells Carbon Brief:

“In this project we are developing and testing the protocols we will need to enable rapid and reliable assessments of the extent to which recent extreme weather events have been made more or less intense or more or less likely by climate change. We started at the beginning of the year and so far we have tested our procedures on an analysis of the 2018 heatwave in Europe.”

The progress to date has “demonstrated the importance of international collaboration for developing new techniques and processes”, says Stott. But “national meteorological services across Europe will continue to have a particular remit to deliver advice on weather and climate in their own countries”, he adds:

“At the Met Office in the UK we are developing our operational attribution capability to help inform the public, policymakers and journalists about the extent to which damaging extreme weather events like the floods in Yorkshire [in 2019] have been affected by climate change.”

An evolving science

As the science of extreme event attribution has matured and become more nuanced, so has the choice of terminology around extreme weather and climate change.

While some attest that all extreme weather must be affected by a world that is warming, this warrants some caution. As the first BAMS report in 2012 noted:

“While it has been argued that in the Anthropocene , all extreme weather or climate events that occur are altered by human influence on climate…this does not mean that climate change can be blamed for every extreme weather or climate event. After all, there has always been extreme weather.”

But while it would be premature to suggest that any single study is the last word, it is clear that – in many cases – the science can do better than that. Similarly, scientific thinking has clearly moved on from the unsatisfactory statement that it is not possible to attribute any individual weather event to climate change. Indeed, as mentioned earlier, there have been some studies that have concluded that an event – or aspect of an event – would have been impossible without climate change.

Ultimately, there are no blanket rules in attribution. Scientists need to examine the circumstances of each individual weather event – or a longer pattern of events for trend studies. It is only by combining evidence from all around the world that they can begin to draw broader conclusions. 

Attribution studies, therefore, rely heavily on the quality and availability of observational data and climate model simulations. In a short paper for the journal Weather , Dr Otto says that “the models used for attribution need to be able to reliably estimate the likelihoods of the types of events being attributed”.

As discussed earlier, attribution studies of heatwaves tend to be more straightforward because of their focus on thermodynamic effects, rather than atmospheric circulation. Yet, Otto tells Carbon Brief that recent studies suggest models overestimate the year-to-year variability of heat extremes in some parts of the world, and thus underestimate the trend and the role of climate change.

In a rapid attribution study of the western Europe summer heatwave in 2019 , for example, Otto and her colleagues found that, for the month of June, the models “show about 50% smaller trends than observations in this part of Europe and much higher year-to-year variability than the observations”. Similarly, a study of the 2019-20 Australian bushfires noted that “models underestimate the observed trend in heat” and so the “real increase could be much higher”. 

These findings emphasise how important it is to analyse models and observations together, Otto says:

“This made me realise just how important attribution is for the scientific community – and everyone using climate science – at bringing observations and models together in a very concrete real-world test case. 

Attribution can, therefore, be used to help scientists “identify where the models are doing well and for what they are not in a much more direct way than the classical skill assessment of climate projections does”, adds Otto. 

Forecasted attribution

One attempt to move attribution science forward was the very first “advance forecasted” attribution analysis , which quantified the impact of climate change on the size, rainfall, and intensity of Hurricane Florence before it made landfall in North Carolina in September 2018. 

The analysis ran two sets of short-term forecasts for the hurricane: one as the climate is today and the other in a simulated world without human-caused climate change. The researchers concluded at the time:

“We find that rainfall will be significantly increased by over 50% in the heaviest precipitating parts of the storm. This increase is substantially larger than expected from thermodynamic considerations alone. We further find that the storm will remain at a high category on the Saffir­-Simpson scale for a longer duration and that the storm is approximately 80km in diameter larger at landfall because of the human interference in the climate system.”

The analysis received a mixed reaction. Prof Stott told Carbon Brief that it was “quite a cool idea”, but would be dependent on being able to forecast such events reliably. Dr Kevin Trenberth , distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research , described it as “a bit of a disaster”. He told Carbon Brief that the quality of the forecast was questionable for the assessment:

“The forecasts made were not good: the intensity of the forecast storm at landfall was category 4 or 5 as I recall, instead of category 2. And so the statements made were based on quite flawed assumptions: namely, that they had a good forecast.”

A key requirement for a reliable attribution study is for models to accurately replicate the extreme event, Trenberth added, but “obviously one can not assess the goodness of the forecast if one does this in advance”.

The authors subsequently published a paper in Science Advances that “reviews the forecasted attribution with the benefit of hindsight”. The findings show that climate change increased rainfall amounts “associated with the forecasted storm’s core” by around 5%, and contributed to Hurricane Florence being “about 9km larger in mean maximum diameter (or a 1.6% increase in storm area) due to climate change”.

The authors acknowledged that the “quantitative aspects of our forecasted attribution statements fall outside broad confidence intervals of our hindcasted statements and are quite different from the hindcasted best estimates”. In short, the results are quite a way off what they forecasted.

However, the authors also said they have identified what went wrong with their forecasted analysis. Problems with the way their “without climate change” model runs were set up created a larger contrast against their real-world simulations. The results thus suggested that climate change would have a bigger impact than it actually did.

Nonetheless, the study did identify a quantifiable impact of climate change on Hurricane Florence, adding to the evidence from studies by other author groups, the researchers concluded:

“As the climate continues to warm, it is expected that extreme tropical cyclone precipitation events and resulting inland flooding will become yet more frequent.”

In addition, a 2021 study of the record Australian heat event of October 2015 noted the potential of their methods “to provide attribution statements for forecast events within an outlook period”. This will “allow for informed messaging to be available as required when an extreme event occurs, which is of particular use to weather and climate services”, the authors wrote.

On the topic of forecasts, a 2021 study showed how it was possible to use a weather forecast model for attribution. The researchers, who penned a Carbon Brief guest post about their work, tested their methods using the European heatwave of February 2019 – an event their model successfully predicted:

“We find that the direct impact of the extra carbon dioxide (CO2) that humans have pumped into the atmosphere made the event 42% more likely for the British Isles and at least 100% (two times) more likely for France.”

Their work “so far represents just the first few steps towards an operational forecast-based attribution system”, they noted.

Finally, as well as casting forwards, attribution can also look back in time. A 2020 study on the US “ Dust Bowl ” heat and drought events of the 1930s takes an unconventional approach of looking at how the past event “would behave” with present-day levels of greenhouse gases. 

The researchers find that “the return period of a 1-in-100-year heatwave summer (as observed in 1936) would be reduced to about 1-in-40 years” in today’s climate.

Carbon Brief will continue to add new extreme event attribution studies to the map and update the accompanying analysis every year. Please get in touch with any suggestions of attribution studies that could be included.

This is the fifth iteration of Carbon Brief’s attribution map. The first , second and third and fourth editions, published in July 2017, March 2019, April 2020 and February 2021, respectively, are still available at the archived links included here. Original interactive map by Rosamund Pearce for Carbon Brief. Revised and updated by Tom Prater and Joe Goodman. Please note: International borders are determined by the mapping software, not Carbon Brief. Update: This article was updated on 05/08/2022 to include a mention of a 2015 attribution study of all global heat and heavy rainfall extremes.

• Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world

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The Influence of Climate Change on Extreme Environmental Events

Climate change affects global temperature and precipitation patterns. These effects, in turn, influence the intensity and, in some cases, the frequency of extreme environmental events, such as forest fires, hurricanes, heat waves, floods, droughts, and storms.

Climatology, Earth Science, Ecology

Boise National Forest Fire

Research shows human-caused climate change has worsened the risk of extreme weather events like the wildfires of the western United States, such as this forest fire in the Boise National Forest, Idaho.

Photograph by David R. Frazier Photolibrary, Inc./Science Source

Climate change caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human activities affects global temperature and precipitation . Records from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicate that the global average temperature has increased by at least 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.72 degrees Fahrenheit) since the 1970s, and that by 2100, it could increase to around 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial temperatures. While the global effects of climate change may seem too small to be noticed by people living around the world, we have already experienced the effects of climate change through severe weather events, including forest fires, hurricanes , droughts , heat waves, floods, and storms. Computer modelling of real data has shown that the frequency and intensity of these events are influenced by climate change. There is a distinction that needs to be made when it comes to the relationship between climate change and extreme environmental events: Climate change has not been proven to directly cause individual extreme environmental events, but it has been shown to make these events more destructive, and likely happen more frequently,than they normally would be. This drastic change is due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions—primarily through the burning of fossil fuels for transportation, heat, and electricity—in the past 150 years. Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, trap heat within Earth’s atmosphere, making the planet warmer. A warmer atmosphere affects the water cycle because warmer air can hold more water vapor . In fact, the air’s capacity to hold water vapor increases by 7 percent with an increase in temperature of 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit). This, along with warmer ocean temperatures, leads to heavier precipitation. Heavy precipitation can cause problems like flooding and landslides —where large amounts of soil or rock slide down a slope. An increase in intense precipitation comes with an increase in intense dry periods as well. Essentially, climate change causes wet places to become wetter and dry places to become drier by altering large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Warmer temperatures on land lead to reduced snowpack , earlier snowmelt , and evaporation of water from freshwater bodies. Extreme heat can lead to more frequent, severe, and prolonged heat waves and droughts and can make forest fires worse. On top of that, wildfires are harder to put out when air temperature is high and soil moisture is low. The number of heat waves, heavy rain events, and major hurricanes has increased in the United States. Hurricane Katrina of 2005 and Hurricane Sandy of 2012 are two of the most costly hurricanes in the history of the United States. The number of hurricanes that have occurred over recent years has not been linked to climate change, but their intensity has. The wind speed of tropical storms is increased by warmer sea-surface temperatures; by the end of the century, scientists predict maximum wind speed will increase by 2–11 percent. Coastal cities that are vulnerable to hurricanes will also be impacted by the sea level rise of around 0.3–1.2 meters (0.98–3.94 feet) in the next century, which will worsen coastal storms and flooding. Without preparing for climate change–induced environmental hazards , an increasing number of people worldwide will lose their homes and be forced into poverty. An average of around 22.5 million people have been displaced per year by climate or weather-related events since 2008. One way to prepare for extreme environmental events is by using current and past data and records to create computer models that show the frequency and intensity of these events. These models can also be used to predict when and where future events will occur and how destructive they will be. With this information, we can prepare for extreme weather events by warning people living in high-risk areas and sending disaster relief . The impact of climate change can also be observed in models by simulating the effects of different concentrations of greenhouse gases on variables, such as wind, rainfall, temperature, and air pressure. Past models used to prove that there is a relationship between climate change and extreme environmental events were not always reliable. This was due to a lack of data as well as flaws in climate models at the time. However, climate models have become more reliable, and a new field of science has developed to determine how climate change directly impacts extreme weather events: extreme event attribution. Since 2004, scientists have published more than 170 studies on the role of human-induced climate change on 190 extreme weather events. Research has found that climate change has increased the risk of wildfires in the western United States, extreme rainfall in China, and drought in South Africa. Continuous research and improvement in the field of extreme event attribution may help us figure out more precisely how climate change impacts extreme weather events–and how we might change this course.

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In the wake of the destructive Hurricane Otis, we find ourselves at a pivotal moment in the history of weather forecasting. The hurricane roared ashore with 165mph winds and torrential rainfall, slamming into the coastal city of Acapulco, Mexico, and claiming the lives of at least 48 people .

The speed at which Otis intensified was unprecedented. Within 12 hours it went from a regular tropical storm to a "category 5" hurricane, the most powerful category and one which might occur only a few times worldwide each year.

This rare and alarming event, described by the US National Hurricane Center as a " nightmare scenario ", broke records for the fastest intensification rate over a 12-hour period in the eastern Pacific. Otis not only caught residents and authorities off guard but also exposed the limitations of our current predictive tools.

I specialize in the study of natural disasters with the goal of improving our ability to predict them and ultimately to save lives. It is critical that we address the pressing concerns related to the tools we use for forecasting these catastrophic events , all while recognizing the significant influence of rapid climate change on our forecasting capabilities.

The predictive tools we rely on

At the core of weather forecasting are computer programs, or "models," that blend atmospheric variables such as temperature, humidity, wind and pressure, with fundamental physics .

Since the atmospheric processes are nonlinear, a small degree of uncertainty in initial atmospheric conditions can lead to a large discrepancy in final forecasts. That's why the general practice now is to forecast a set of possible scenarios rather than predict the single scenario most likely to occur.

But while these models are instrumental in issuing early warnings and evacuation orders, they have fundamental limitations and carry a significant degree of uncertainty, especially when dealing with rare or extreme weather . This uncertainty arises from various factors including the fundamentally chaotic nature of the system .

First, the historical data is incomplete, since a hurricane such as Otis might occur only once in several millennia. We don't know when an east Pacific storm last turned into a category 5 hurricane overnight—if ever—but it was certainly before modern satellites and weather buoys. Our models struggle to account for these "one in 1,000-year events" because we simply haven't observed them before.

The complex physics governing the weather also has to be simplified in these predictive models. While this approach is effective for common scenarios, it falls short when dealing with the intricacies of extreme events that involve rare combinations of variables and factors.

And then there are the unknown unknowns: factors our models cannot account for because we are unaware of them, or they have not been integrated into our predictive frameworks. Unanticipated interactions among various climatic drivers can lead to unprecedented intensification, as was the case with Hurricane Otis.

The role of climate change

To all this we can add the problem of climate change and its impact on extreme weather. Hurricanes, in particular, are influenced by rising sea surface temperatures , which provides more energy for storms to form and intensify.

The connection between climate change and the intensification of hurricanes, coupled with other factors such as high precipitation or high tides, is becoming clearer .

With established weather patterns being altered, it is becoming even more challenging to predict the behavior of storms and their intensification. Historical data may no longer serve as a reliable guide.

The way forward

The challenges are formidable but not insurmountable. There are a few steps we can take to enhance our forecasting and better prepare for the uncertainties that lie ahead.

The first would be to develop more advanced predictive models that integrate a broader range of factors and variables, as well as consider worst-case scenarios. Artificial intelligence and machine learning tools can help us process vast and complex datasets more efficiently.

But to get this additional data we'll have to invest in more weather monitoring stations, satellite technology, AI tools and atmospheric and oceanographic research.

Since even world experts and their models can be caught out by sudden weather extremes, we also need to educate the public about the limitations and uncertainties in weather forecasting.

We must encourage preparedness and a proactive response to warnings, even when predictions seem uncertain. And of course we still have to mitigate climate change itself: the root cause of intensifying weather events.

Hurricane Otis provided a stark and immediate reminder of the inadequacies of our current predictive tools in the face of rapid climate change and increasingly extreme weather events. The urgency to adapt and innovate in the realm of weather forecasting has never been greater.

It is incumbent upon us to rise to the occasion and usher in a new era of prediction that can keep pace with the ever-shifting dynamics of our planet's climate. Our future depends on it.

Provided by The Conversation

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• Help & FAQ

Case study as a research strategy: investigating extreme weather resilience of construction SMEs in the UK

• Engineering Systems & Supply Chain Management
• Sustainable Environment Research Group
• College of Engineering and Physical Sciences

Research output : Unpublished contribution to conference › Unpublished Conference Paper › peer-review

• research strategy
• research methodology
• research method
• research philosophy

Access to Document

• Investigating extreme weather resilience of construction SMEs in the UK Accepted author manuscript, 288 KB
• http://www.iiirr.ucalgary.ca/files/iiirr/254.pdf

Fingerprint

• small and medium-sized enterprise Social Sciences 100%
• resilience Social Sciences 59%
• methodology Social Sciences 7%
• pluralism Social Sciences 3%
• credibility Social Sciences 3%
• grounded theory Social Sciences 3%
• action research Social Sciences 3%
• ethnography Social Sciences 3%

Research output

• 1 Unpublished Conference Paper

Research output per year

SME resilience to extreme weather events: important initiatives for informing policy making in the area

• small and medium-sized enterprise 100%
• resilience 59%
• prosperity 10%
• vulnerability 7%

T1 - Case study as a research strategy

T2 - 7th Annual International Conference of International Institute for Infrastructure, Renewal and Reconstruction

AU - Wedawatta, Gayan

AU - Ingirige, Bingunath

AU - Amaratunga, Dilanthi

N2 - Determining an appropriate research methodology is considered as an important element in a research study; especially in a doctoral research study. It involves approach to the entire process of a research study, starting from theoretical underpinnings and spanning to data collection and analysis, and extending to developing the solutions for the problems investigated. Research methodology in essence is focused around the problems to be investigated in a research study and therefore varies according to the problems investigated. Thus, identifying the research methodology that best suits a research in hand is important, not only as it will benefit achieving the set objectives of a research, but also as it will serve establishing the credibility of the work. Research philosophy, approach, strategy, choice, and techniques are inherent components of the methodology. Research strategy provides the overall direction of the research including the process by which the research is conducted. Case study, experiment, survey, action research, grounded theory and ethnography are examples for such research strategies. Case study is documented as an empirical inquiry that investigates a contemporary phenomenon within its real-life context, especially when the boundaries between phenomenon and context are not clearly evident. Case study was adopted as the overarching research strategy, in a doctoral study developed to investigate the resilience of construction Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the UK to extreme weather events. The research sought to investigate how construction SMEs are affected by EWEs, respond to the risk of EWEs, and means of enhancing their resilience to future EWEs. It is argued that utilising case study strategy will benefit the research study, in achieving the set objectives of the research and answering the research questions raised, by comparing and contrasting with the alternative strategies available. It is also claimed that the selected strategy will contribute towards addressing the call for improved methodological pluralism in construction management research, enhancing the understanding of complex network of relationships pertinent to the industry and the phenomenon being studied.

AB - Determining an appropriate research methodology is considered as an important element in a research study; especially in a doctoral research study. It involves approach to the entire process of a research study, starting from theoretical underpinnings and spanning to data collection and analysis, and extending to developing the solutions for the problems investigated. Research methodology in essence is focused around the problems to be investigated in a research study and therefore varies according to the problems investigated. Thus, identifying the research methodology that best suits a research in hand is important, not only as it will benefit achieving the set objectives of a research, but also as it will serve establishing the credibility of the work. Research philosophy, approach, strategy, choice, and techniques are inherent components of the methodology. Research strategy provides the overall direction of the research including the process by which the research is conducted. Case study, experiment, survey, action research, grounded theory and ethnography are examples for such research strategies. Case study is documented as an empirical inquiry that investigates a contemporary phenomenon within its real-life context, especially when the boundaries between phenomenon and context are not clearly evident. Case study was adopted as the overarching research strategy, in a doctoral study developed to investigate the resilience of construction Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the UK to extreme weather events. The research sought to investigate how construction SMEs are affected by EWEs, respond to the risk of EWEs, and means of enhancing their resilience to future EWEs. It is argued that utilising case study strategy will benefit the research study, in achieving the set objectives of the research and answering the research questions raised, by comparing and contrasting with the alternative strategies available. It is also claimed that the selected strategy will contribute towards addressing the call for improved methodological pluralism in construction management research, enhancing the understanding of complex network of relationships pertinent to the industry and the phenomenon being studied.

KW - case study

KW - research strategy

KW - research methodology

KW - research method

KW - research philosophy

M3 - Unpublished Conference Paper

Y2 - 19 July 2011 through 21 July 2011

Extreme Weather and Climate Change

This video explores what scientists know about how changes in global climate and increasing temperatures affect different extreme weather events.

Notes from our reviewers

The CLEAN collection is hand-picked and rigorously reviewed for scientific accuracy and classroom effectiveness. Read what our review team had to say about this resource below or learn more about how CLEAN reviews teaching materials .

• Teaching Tips The video could be used to begin a larger discussion about the relationship between weather and climate, potentially using the main points to create further questions. Could be a good introduction to any unit of instruction dealing with the effects of climate change on Earth systems. Be aware that some concepts may need elaboration for younger students, for example: circling storms are a result of rotating Earth; storms decrease in intensity when they hit land, weakening due to lack of water and heat.
• About the Science Uses very simple and straightforward visualizations to explain the relationship between weather and climate and how current and projected trends may affect human life. Comments from expert scientist: The page is well-organized with a very effective overview, 'about the dataset,' and 'the science and impact' summaries. The scientific content is of extreme interest and timeliness. The video is attractive; the intended audience should enjoy it.
• About the Pedagogy The video brings up important and often overlooked misconceptions about climate and weather. The resource needs to be supplemented with specific materials for a guided conversation. Transcript and summary of main points is provided. Explanatory diagrams, while simplistic to some degree, are effective in describing how changes in climate affect the genesis and severity of severe storms.
• Technical Details/Ease of Use Good graphics throughout.

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• v.8(Suppl 4); 2023 Sep
• PMC10548486

Health impacts of extreme weather events – Cascading risks in a changing climate

Carsten butsch.

1 University of Bonn, Germany Department of Geography

2 University of Cologne, Germany Institute of Geography

Liza-Marie Beckers

3 Federal Institute of Hydrology Koblenz, Germany

Enno Nilson

Marieke frassl, nicole brennholt.

4 North Rhine-Westphalia State Office for Nature, Environment and Consumer Protection Department of Water Management and Protection Düsseldorf, Germany

René Kwiatkowski

5 Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance Department for Risk Management, International Affairs Bonn, Germany

Mareike Söder

6 Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute Coordination Unit Climate and Soil Braunschweig, Germany

Extreme weather events represent one of the most tangible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. They have increased in number and severity and a further increase is expected. This is accompanied by direct and indirect negative consequences for human health.

Flooding events, storms and droughts are analysed here for Germany from a systemic perspective on the basis of a comprehensive literature review. Cascading risks beyond the initial event are also taken into account in order to depict downstream consequences.

In addition to the immediate health burdens caused by extreme weather events such as injuries, long-term consequences such as stress-related mental disorders occur. These stresses particularly affect certain vulnerable groups, e.g. older persons, children, pregnant women or first responders.

Conclusions

A look at the cascading risks described in the international literature allows us to develop precautionary measures for adaptation to the consequences of climate change. Many adaptation measures protect against different risks at the same time. In addition to planning measures, these include, above all, increasing the population’s ability to protect itself through knowledge and strengthening of social networks.

1. Introduction

Extreme weather events are among the most tangible impacts of climate change in public perception. Individual events that trigger disasters are often explained by climate change. This is difficult from a scientific perspective, because while climate change alters the probability of the occurrence of extremes, this may not be a sufficient explanation for the individual event in question ( Info box ). However, there are many indications that at least some types of extreme weather events have increased in frequency and magnitude due to anthropogenic climate change [ 1 ]. This is accompanied by negative consequences for human health – both directly and indirectly.

Extreme weather events can be defined in various ways, with two definitions being established in the field of climate impact research. In the first, rarity and high magnitude is crucial, e.g. a statistically expected reoccurrence after 100 years or more. For the second, the consequences of the event for human society (i.e. health) are important, where these events disrupt social, technical or environmental systems [ 2 , 3 ]. Below, both points of view are linked.

First, the climate change-induced change in frequency of potentially health-threatening events such as floods, storms, droughts, and fires is presented. Heatwaves are excluded here, as they are the subject of a separate article in this status report by Winklmayr et al. [ 4 ]. Based on this, the consequences of these events are analysed along risk cascades and direct and indirect impacts are systematically presented.

Extreme weather events are defined here as a ‘dynamic occurrence within a limited timeframe that impedes the normal functioning of a system’ [ 2 , P. 4]. They trigger disasters when they encounter vulnerable social conditions and damage people, infrastructure, the economy or the environment to such an extent that external assistance becomes necessary (based on [ 5 ]). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) dealt with vulnerability and resilience to extreme weather events in a special report [ 5 ]. Human health is conceptualised there as a vulnerable good and as potentially increasing vulnerability, since people with pre-existing conditions are often more affected by extreme weather events.

Info box Evidence: The increase in extreme weather events as a result of climate change

The sixth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) asserts in its central statements that anthropogenic climate change is already having an impact on many weather and climate extremes in all regions of the world and that the evidence for attribution to human influence has strengthened in recent years [ 8 ].

However, not every extreme weather or hydrological phenomenon can be attributed to climate change. According to the conventions of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), this attribution is only possible when system variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation or flood parameters, here: extreme values) shift noticeably in the multi-year mean [ 9 ]. This proof is difficult to provide due to the high natural variability in the climate system, usually quite short observation series and the rarity of extreme weather events. Since the climate fluctuates on multi-decadal time scales even under natural conditions, it is particularly difficult to clearly detect the share of anthropogenically enhanced climate change. For Germany, a change can be detected in relation to the event types heat, drought, storm surge and river flood (past analysis, data mostly since 1950), although the robustness – i.e. the unambiguity with which climate change can be identified as the reason for the changes – of the detected changes decreases in the aforementioned order. Almost all common heat indicators show significant changes with ever new extreme values [ 4 , 10 ], which can partly be attributed to the anthropogenic contribution to climate change [ 11 ]. Established trends for droughts are more or less pronounced depending on the drought indicator. While meteorological indicators such as the climatic water balance or the forest fire index show comparatively clear changes all over Germany [ 12 , 13 ], significant trends in hydrological indicators only emerge regionally [ 14 ]. This is partly due to compensating effects within the hydrological system, e.g. through water management or glacial melt. With regard to river floods, increases in annual maximum discharges can be observed at many gauges. In the case of extreme floods with a 100-year return probability, corresponding evidence is often not available (e.g. [ 15 ]). A similar picture emerges for North Sea gauges with regard to storm surges: while annual storm surges are increasing in magnitude, no trend can be discerned for ‘very severe storm surges’ due to a lack of past events and data [ 16 ].

In general, the more extreme and thus rarer an event under consideration, the more the limited length of observation series influences the possibilities for detecting changes. Therefore, it is difficult to reliably prove changes in the occurrence of extreme and destructive heavy rain or flash flood events and storms [ 17 ]. The required spatiotemporally high-resolution data series are only available for recent decades. However, this does not mean that climate change does not cause changes in these variables. By applying climate models, it could be shown, for example, that precipitation events such as the one that triggered the flood disaster in western Germany and Belgium in July 2021 have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change [ 18 ].

In view of the current state of knowledge, despite uncertainties, it can be assumed for precautionary reasons that meteorological and hydrological extreme weather events in Germany will continue to increase in magnitude and frequency as climate change progresses ( Info box ) [ 1 , 6 ]. The evidence is more robust for temperature- and sea-level-driven impact chains than for precipitation- and wind-driven impact cascades and greater for spatiotemporally large-scale phenomena such as droughts than for small-scale phenomena such as heavy rain or tornadoes. The greater the anthropogenic contribution to climate change will be, the higher the magnitude of the expected increase. Extreme weather events, however, are possible under all projections, with varying degrees of probability. The introductory article to this status report explains the basics of the different climate projections [ 7 ].

The effects of these events on human health are described below, based on a comprehensive evaluation of scientific literature, which was searched through Web of Knowledge, PubMed and Scopus. In particular, systematic reviews and meta-analyses were included. The text does not reproduce all sources found, but represents a focussed selection, which cannot meet the requirements of a systematic review.

2. Health impacts of selected extreme weather events

In this section, first the theoretical perspective on cascading risks is outlined. It is then applied to the extreme weather events under consideration – floods, storms, droughts and fires – in order to systematically illustrate the health impacts of these events. Finally, the extent to which vulnerable groups are particularly affected by the consequences of different extreme weather events is considered.

2.1 Cascading risks – conceptual foundations

The International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (1990–1999) led to intensive conceptual and theoretical works on risks. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction was established as the leading institution; the Hyogo Framework and the Sendai Framework were adopted as internationally binding policy documents for risk reduction within the United Nations [ 19 ]. In parallel, new theoretical approaches emerged in the scientific discourse. Disasters are conceptualised as complex events in which the exposure of groups and systems and their vulnerability are analysed [ 19 ]. Accordingly, they are not the result of individual events, but arise from the interaction of different processes and circumstances [ 20 ]. Compound risks, which can trigger disasters that go beyond the impact of individual events, arise when (1) several extreme events occur simultaneously, (2) they encounter amplifying factors or (3) they are triggered by the unfavourable combination of several individually non-critical occurrences [ 20 ]. A special form are natural events that trigger technological failures and, as a consequence, disasters (NaTech events), e.g. the reactor disaster in Fukushima triggered by a tsunami.

Most recently, concepts of cascading risks have emerged that address the indirect effects of disasters. Through the interconnectedness of systems at local, regional and global scales, disturbances propagate and can be amplified, creating entirely new risks [ 20 , 21 ]. This concept is based on the assumption of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). Complexity means that processes do not necessarily run in a linear fashion. Thus, unpredictable dynamics arise, because the number of connections between subsystems is very large and interactions are difficult to predict. As a result, small changes can have very large effects. When tipping points are crossed, CAS can reach new states of equilibrium. CAS are mostly dynamic and co-evolutions can occur when developments in individual subsystems influence developments in others [ 22 ].

The CAS perspective provides a framework for analysing the circumstances that lead to a disaster. Reducing vulnerability through adaptation measures can ideally prevent disasters or at least reduce their consequences, while active disaster management can prevent or at least limit the emergence of cascading risks.

This shows that to assess the health impact of extreme weather events, one must not only consider the immediate consequences of these events. A comprehensive analysis must also systematically examine the indirect and downstream consequences.

2.2 Deaths, injuries and monetary losses due to extreme weather events

Due to the complex interactions, it is not possible to fully assess the health impact of extreme weather events. Official statistics show causes of death according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD); more detailed information is not collected. For example, if a person is killed by a falling tree, the cause of death statistics do not distinguish whether the tree fell due to a storm or due to another trigger. An alternative source of information is the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) [ 23 ]. Data from various sources on the health impact of worldwide disaster events since 1900 (including the extreme weather events considered here) have been collected and evaluated in this database. On the cut-off date of November 11, 2022, it contained 89 events for Germany, starting with a flooding event in the Danube region in 1920. A total of 63 storm events with 718 fatalities, 25 floods with 271 fatalities and one forest fire without any fatalities are documented. The database does not explicitly differentiate between storms and storm surges. The advantage of the EM-DAT database is the worldwide overview, but regional databases sometimes come to different results. The European Environment Agency recorded more than 4,700 deaths and damages amounting to 150 billion euros in 1,500 events between 1980 and 2013 [ 24 ]. Floods were the most frequent catastrophic events.

Table 1 shows the ten most serious events in Germany, based on the number of directly affected persons (fatalities and injured persons) registered in EM-DAT. Most injured persons were recorded for the heavy rain event that led to widespread flooding in mid-July 2021, mainly in Rhineland-Palatinate (RP) and North Rhine-Westphalia (NW), and the event claimed the second most lives in Germany with 197 fatalities. Most deaths occurred as a result of the storm surge of 1962 (347).

Compilation of the ten most serious events in Germany (direct health consequences) sorted by the number of affected persons recorded

Source: Own representation based on EM-DAT [ 23 ]

1 in US dollars, 2020 prices

BB=Brandenburg, BE=Berlin, bn=billion, BW=Baden-Württemberg, BY=Bavaria, GDR=German Democratic Republic, HB=Bremen, HE=Hesse, HH=Hamburg, MV=Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, NI=Lower Saxony, NW=North Rhine-Westphalia, RP=Rhineland-Palatinate, SH=Schleswig-Holstein, SL=Saarland, SN=Saxony, ST=Saxony-Anhalt, TH=Thuringia

In a global comparison, Germany’s exposure to natural hazards is relatively low and the risk profile differs, so that some globally relevant event types have not yet triggered any disasters here. Globally, 25,722 loss events with 38.4 million fatalities and 10.8 million injuries have been recorded in the EM-DAT database. The five events that have caused the most deaths globally in the last 122 years are (1) droughts, (2) epidemics and pandemics, with the COVID-19 pandemic not (yet) recorded in the database, (3) floods and inundations, (4) NaTech events and (5) earthquakes. At the same time, a decline in the number of fatalities can be observed from the 1930s onwards ( Figure 1 ). Considering the growing world population and the increasing number of damaging events, this means a decreasing individual mortality risk, which is related to more effective risk management and improved international cooperation.

Global trends of documented loss events (event types considered in this review) since 1900

Figure 1a (left) Persons affected and monetary losses

Figure 1b (right) Fatalities

For the extreme weather events considered below, the database shows 12,341 events worldwide with 20.2 million deaths ( Figure 2 ). The largest single events are famines, which are triggered by floods or droughts. This represents a reduction in complexity that obscures interdependencies. The famine in Bengal in 1943, for example, is primarily recorded here as a drought, although Sen [ 25 ] showed that there was not a lack of food in Bengal, but that the poor population had no access to it. In Germany, storms and floods are the most common extreme weather events with the highest numbers of fatalities and persons affected ( Figure 2 ).

Persons affected by different types of events. Number of different event types worldwide and in Germany, recorded fatalities and injured persons from different types of events worldwide and in Germany.

With regard to extreme weather events, opposing trends can be observed globally: the number of events, persons affected and damage is increasing, while the number of fatalities is decreasing ( Figure 1 ) [ 26 ]. For Germany, these trends are not equally clear. Due to the floods in July 2021, more deaths have already been recorded in the current decade than in the previous five decades. The highest insured losses were recorded in Germany for the decade 2000–2009.

2.3 Cascading risks due to floods, heavy rainfall and storm surges

Flood events can be triggered by various phenomena. Storm surges can occur in Germany when strong winds from northerly/north-westerly directions push water towards the coasts (North Sea and Baltic Sea) and this situation coincides with tidal flooding (mainly North Sea). River floods occur as a result of long-lasting and large-scale precipitation and possibly in conjunction with snow melting in the river catchment areas. Flash floods are the result of local heavy precipitation with high magnitudes, often within hours and in connection with a pronounced relief of the terrain (e.g. narrow valleys, large differences in altitude in a small area). Current knowledge suggests that all three event types (storm surges, river floods and flash floods) could increase in frequency and magnitude in the future ( Info box , [ 6 ]). By the end of 2100, 3.7 million people could be affected by coastal flooding in Europe each year [ 27 ].

These events can cause great damage if they hit vulnerable groups or structures. Besides magnitude and duration of the events, local hydrodynamic conditions such as flow velocity in a cross-section or built-up areas in the channel determine the outcome [ 28 ]. The presence of risk management measures [ 27 ] and sources of hazard (e.g. industrial plants, landfills, sewage treatment plants, petrol stations [ 29 , 30 ]) in the potential floodplains determines whether extreme events lead to damage.

Immediate consequences for human health caused by the event may include deaths due to drowning, e.g. due to entrapment in buildings and vehicles, and (fatal) injuries. As a result of large-scale damage or flooding, there may be further deaths and other physical health consequences, e.g. from heart attacks, electrocution, fires, petrol and gas leaks (especially CO, CO 2 ) due to technical defects and collapsing building components [ 28 , 31 , 32 ] ( Figure 3 , which also shows the cascading risks of extreme weather event ‘storms’, considered in Section 2.4 Cascading risks due to storms ).

Cascading risks triggered by floods, heavy rainfall and storms. Arrows indicate possible causal relationships between risks, amplifying factors and health consequences.

Source: Own representation

Indirectly, the disruption of critical infrastructures (including energy supply, water supply and disposal, transport and traffic, healthcare facilities) can lead to bottlenecks in medical care (such as through the cancellation of planned treatments, lack of medicines) and delays in disaster response and provision of essential goods (e.g. water, food, emergency shelters) [ 27 , 31–33 ]. The relevant literature also describes an increase in cardiovascular complaints after flooding events [ 31 , 34 , 35 ]. However, it is not documented whether this is due to psychological distress during the event itself or to the failure of basic medical care. Other indirect health consequences due to increased exposure to heat, cold or damp rooms due to inadequate accommodation are not yet being systematically recorded. The development of mould in flood-damaged buildings can lead to respiratory diseases [ 30 , 36 ]. Damage to drinking water and sewage infrastructure, as well as the failure of refrigerators due to power outages, can lead to an increased incidence of foodborne infections, the connection of which with climate change is considered in more detail by Dietrich et al. [ 37 ]. Vector-borne diseases may increase after floods when, for example, rodents seek shelter indoors [ 38 , 39 ]. Another article in this status report is dedicated in detail to vector- and rodent-borne diseases as a result of climate change [ 40 ]. In addition, the loss of agricultural land due to flooding and erosion can threaten regional food production, and contamination from saltwater intrusion due to storm surges can affect drinking water supplies [ 41 ].

Heavy rainfall and flooding can lead to the discharge of pollutants and germs into water bodies via surface runoff, combined sewer overflows [ 42–44 ] and the destruction of wastewater infrastructure [ 41 , 45 ]. In addition, pollutants, including persistent organic pollutants (POPs), heavy metals, pesticides, radionuclides and germs can be mobilised from sediments and polluted soils [ 29 , 45 ]. Contact with contaminated water carries an increased risk of infections [ 29 , 32 ], e.g. through the ingestion of antibiotic-resistant bacteria [ 46 ]. In Halle (Saale) in 2013, an increased number of infections with the parasite Cryptosporidium hominis was found in children who spent time in flood-plains and flooded meadows after a flooding event [ 47 ].

Medium-term health damage can be caused by exposure to pollutants via the air, e.g. in contaminated buildings, via water and via food intake. The latter are a consequence of the accumulation of heavy metals and POPs e.g. in arable soils and fish [ 28 , 29 ]. However, directly observed effects after floods, such as headaches, dizziness, nausea, respiratory and skin irritation, could not yet be clearly attributed to a recorded increased exposure to halogenated pesticides (i.e. organic compounds in which at least one hydrogen atom has been replaced by chlorine, fluorine, bromine or iodine), volatile organic compounds, or heavy metals after flooding events [ 45 ]. When estimating the consequences, the limited data available is problematic, especially with regard to exposure before and after the event and the simultaneous recording of symptoms. In addition to the acute health consequences of event-related chemical exposure, it is particularly challenging to relate back to the potential chronic effects that only become noticeable several months after the event [ 45 ]. Many inorganic and organic pollutants are suspected of having carcinogenic, cardiovascular, neurotoxic, hepatotoxic, immunotoxic or reproductive effects [ 29 , 48 ]. Due to the large number of pollutants, however, there are several research deficits.

A significant consequence of flooding events is the impairment of mental health [ 49 , 50 ]. In Europe, increases in post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety disorders, depression and even suicides have been reported compared to the time before an event [ 32 , 50 ]. These effects can be observed long after the event [ 50 ]. In addition to the direct traumatic experience of the event, the mental health consequences are also due to material losses and the often protracted reconstruction [ 51 ]. In a study on the consequences of the 2013 Elbe and Danube floods, the success of recovery correlated negatively with the length of time until the receipt of compensation payments, health status, financial status and obligations as property owner. Fear and anxiety due to (subjectively perceived) inadequate flood protection and the associated consequences of future events were also negative factors influencing recovery [ 51 ]. In the last 20 years, twelve flooding events in Germany have been registered in the EM-DAT database [ 23 ]. The floods in western Germany in July 2021 and the Elbe floods in 2002 and 2013 were particularly devastating.

On the German North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts, storm surges occur regularly, especially in the winter months. On the North Sea there have been 64 severe storm surges (>2.50 m above mean high water, mhw) since 1967, including 13 very severe storm surges (>3.50 m above mhw) [ 52 ]. However, effective coastal protection has been erected in many places. In particular, the experience of the storm surge in February 1962 (‘Hamburg storm surge’) led to increased coastal protection measures in Germany [ 53 ], so that the damage and health impacts of subsequent, more extreme events (e.g. 1976, 1990, 1994 and 2013 on the North Sea and 1995 and 2006 on the Baltic Sea) were greatly reduced [ 53 ].

2.4 Cascading risks due to storms

Large-scale storm events occur in Germany when large low-pressure vortices – cyclones – coming from the Atlantic pass over Central Europe. They can trigger winds of up to 200 km/h [ 54 ]. Among the most severe events observed in recent decades were cyclones Lothar (1999), Jeanett (2002), Kyrill (2007) and Zeynep (2022). In the EM-DAT database, a total of 63 storm events have been documented for Germany since 1900, 33 of which occurred since the year 2000 [ 23 ]. The greatest damage in the last two decades was caused by cyclone Kyrill in 2007. No clear trend in the development of storm events can be determined from past data. Although no reliable statements can be made, an increase in the frequency and magnitude of storm events must be expected in the future [ 54 , 55 ]. In addition to large-scale storm events, approximately 20 to 60 tornadoes occur annually in Germany, which can cause severe damage on a small scale [ 56 ].

In a global comparison, Germany is less affected by severe storm events than countries in the tropics and sub-tropics, where tropical cyclones regularly trigger severe damage with high wind speeds and precipitation. This is also reflected in the literature on the health consequences of storms. A total of 22 review articles on health consequences of storms were identified, of which 14 were accessible and evaluated for this section. It becomes clear that there are large differences globally in terms of knowledge about the health consequences of extreme weather [ 34 , 57 ]. The storm event whose consequences were analysed most thoroughly is Hurricane Katrina (2005, south-eastern USA).

The effects of storm on human health can be grouped into indirect and direct consequences at different levels ( Figure 3 ). The direct health consequences of storms include injuries, for which comprehensive data are available in numerous studies [ 34 , 58 ]. However, injuries also occur indirectly when first responders are injured during cleanup operations, during which they may also suffer poisoning [ 58 , 59 ]. The stress to which storm victims are exposed during the event, but also the change in living conditions triggered by the event (e.g. homelessness, unemployment) manifest themselves in the medium term in an increase in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) [ 60 ]. The experience of stress also leads to long-term observable developmental delays in children whose mothers experienced a severe storm event during pregnancy. These delays also manifest as direct consequences through postnatal complications and are exacerbated – especially in the developmental context – by temporarily restricted access to food [ 61–63 ].

Indirectly, the failure of critical infrastructure causes negative health consequences, e.g. an increase in carbon monoxide poisoning when cooking indoors with wood, coal or gas during power outages [ 34 , 58 , 64 ]. Failures of water supply and sanitation can promote infections, and there is often an increase in unprotected contact with animals, whose faeces can carry pathogens, but which can also injure people through biting [ 34 , 65 ]. As healthcare facilities are often inaccessible during storm events, critical situations can arise for people with pre-existing conditions, for example patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), who are dependent on permanent oxygen supply, or patients requiring dialysis [ 60 , 64 ]. Acutely insufficient healthcare for chronically ill patients can also manifest itself in a permanent deterioration of health [ 34 , 60 ].

Severe storm events, such as tropical storms, force people to evacuate. Living together in crowded emergency shelters can encourage the spread of infectious diseases [ 62 ]. Flight, but also other traumatic events during the storm, can have long-term consequences for mental health, such as PTSD [ 62 , 64 , 66 ].

The loss of public order affects vulnerable groups in particular; in addition to children and older persons [ 67 ], women are often exposed to particular dangers ( Section 2.6 Vulnerable groups and pathways of impact ). There is evidence in the literature that women experience sexualised violence, which leads to further distress [ 61 ].

2.5 Cascading risks due to droughts and fires

For droughts, a distinction is made between three different types according to cause and consequence:

(1) Meteorological drought occurs when there is a combination of low precipitation and high temperatures. A high potential evaporation results in a negative climatic water balance (typical indicator).

(2) Agricultural drought describes the drought stress in agricultural crops due to a lack of water in the rooted soil. In north-western Europe, this only occurs after dry phases lasting several weeks. In extreme cases, this can lead to yield losses or even crop failures.

(3) Hydrological drought is recorded on the basis of water level data and is the result of a strained landscape water balance. Long and large-scale dry periods are the root cause for this type of drought as well.

Apart from the immediate effects of low water levels and water volumes, e.g. on drinking water availability, there are impacts on water quality and the risk of fires. Projections show that droughts in Central Europe could increase in frequency, magnitude and duration during the 21 st century [ 6 ]. Low precipitation, high temperatures and multiple demands could lead to increasing water stress, especially in summer and the transitional seasons.

Cascading risks due to droughts can cause different health impacts ( Figure 4 ). In extreme cases, they lead to malnutrition with increased mortality among vulnerable groups. This is mainly observed in the Global South [ 68 ]. In the Global North, a lack of food and drinking water supply currently poses little risk and the economic consequences dominate.

Cascading risks that can be triggered by droughts and fires. Arrows indicate possible causal relationships between risks, amplifying factors and health consequences.

Droughts are usually accompanied by stable weather conditions and thus a reduced exchange of air masses. This leads to an accumulation of pollutants in the atmosphere and thus a deterioration of air quality with corresponding health consequences [ 69 ]. Elsewhere in this status report, the health impacts of climate change due to increased air pollutant loads are considered in more detail by BreitnerBusch et al. [ 70 ].

People working in agriculture are particularly exposed to the increasing agricultural droughts, often associated with heatwaves and strong sunlight, which is why potential health hazards such as heat stroke, cardiovascular failure and skin cancer especially affect this group of people [ 4 , 71 ]. The economic uncertainties caused by droughts can also affect the mental health of people working in agriculture and forestry and increase the risk of suicide [ 72–75 ] (see also the scoping review by Gebhardt et al. [ 76 ] on the effects of climate change on mental health in this status report).

Low water levels can have a detrimental effect on water quality. Due to the reduced water volume and higher residence times of the water, it gets warmer and pollutants become less diluted [ 77 ]. High water temperatures and lower flow velocities during low water in summer are associated with the mass occurrence of potentially toxic phytoplankton (algal blooms), see also an article on waterborne infections and intoxications in this status report [ 78 ]. Direct contact with contaminated water occurs through occupational activities in and around water or recreational activities, e.g. water sports. For drinking water supplies in Germany, reduced water quality is a potential risk only in special cases. A possible increase in guideline value ex-ceedances may require more intensive drinking water treatment processes, e.g. in bank filtrates where enriched pollutants or toxins may not be sufficiently filtered out of the water. In drinking water reservoirs, toxin-producing cyanobacterial blooms can complicate water treatment. Contact with the contaminated water can lead to gastrointestinal infections and illnesses as well as zoonotic and vector-associated diseases [ 69 , 78 ]. For contact with cyanotoxins, additional skin irritations and respiratory diseases have been reported, but are often not clearly attributable to cyanobacterial exposure [ 79 ].

Indirectly, droughts can lead to the spread of vector-associated diseases if, for example, in the absence of predators, mosquitoes multiply heavily in pools of water or in vessels for water storage [ 40 , 80 ].

Droughts can also trigger health impacts as part of compound risks, e.g. when heavy rainfall events occur during a drought. On the one hand, infiltration of dry soils is inhibited, so there may be increased surface runoff and an increase in flash flood hazards and associated health impacts ( Section 2.3 Cascading risks due to floods, heavy rainfall and storm surges ). On the other hand, entry of pollutants or germs can lead to a deterioration of water quality.

Summer droughts are often accompanied by heatwaves. This provides ideal conditions for the occurrence of fires, which can be triggered by the slightest influences (e.g. by lightning or careless behaviour), thus increasing the risk of forest fires [ 81 , 82 ]. In addition to climatic changes, other factors such as tree species composition (e.g. a high proportion of conifers) also play a role [ 6 ]. Forest and bush fires endanger the physical health of those affected as well as rescue workers directly through burns, through smoke development and the associated consequences for the respiratory tract, but also through effects on mental health or indirectly through disruption of infrastructure [ 83–85 ].

After 1959, which was an extremely dry year, the years 2003, 2018, 2019, 2022 had a particularly high precipitation deficit and drought periods, with additional regionally effective drought events [ 12 , 14 , 86 ]. The multi-year drought of 2018 to 2020 represents the most severe drought in Europe in the last 250 years [ 87 ].

No drought event is listed for Germany in the EM-DAT database [ 23 ] and in the recent past there have been no direct health effects of droughts in Germany documented in the literature. However, the hydrological droughts of recent years have led to pronounced low-water situations with observable deteriorations in water quality, e.g. due to massive phytoplankton blooms such as those observed recurrently in the Moselle since 2017 and in the Oder in 2022.

In the period between 1991 and 2021, the years 1991, 1992 and 2003 are those with the greatest number of forest fires [ 88 ]. The largest area was affected in 1992 (4,900 hectares), followed by 2019 (2,700 hectares) and 2018 (2,300 hectares) [ 88 ]. The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) even assumes 3,600 hectares for 2018 and 4,300 hectares for 2022 [ 89 ]. In those regions in eastern Germany and in the Upper Rhine region, which are particularly affected by rising temperatures and droughts, more than 40 days with a high or very high forest fire risk are possible on average by the middle of the century [ 6 ].

2.6 Vulnerable groups and pathways of impact

The impact of extreme weather events differs regionally and for different population groups. Natural circumstances predispose a region for the occurrence of individual event types. Storm surges are a phenomenon of coasts and estuaries. Particularly strong winds can also occur there, as well as in exposed inland mountainous areas. Storm damage can also occur on a small scale where vulnerability is increased (e.g. forests, cities, vulnerable transport infrastructures such as overhead railway lines). River floods affect areas along waterways, flash floods can cause particular damage in areas with high relief. Extreme heavy rainfall events, however, can affect any place in Germany.

An increased risk of droughts and their potential consequences cannot be directly located, but there are different levels of impact depending on the type of drought (agricultural, hydrological). In regions and seasons with an already strained water balance, the consequences are more pronounced (e.g. eastern Germany) than in regions with some reserves in the system (e.g. Rhineland).

Four population groups are particularly affected by the health consequences of extreme weather events for different reasons:

(1) children, older people and people with physical limitations – they may not be able to care for themselves or get to safety and the physical stresses that occur may push them to their limits;

(2) people with low socioeconomic status – they are often directly exposed to extreme weather events and may have lower coping capacity;

(3) men are more often affected by the immediate consequences (e.g. higher risk tolerance);

(4) specific long-term consequences can occur for women (e.g. pregnancy complications).

The numbers of victims of the floods in western Germany and Belgium in July 2021 illustrate these overlapping vulnerabilities: among the immediate fatalities (184) in RP and NW, 138 persons (75%) were older than 60 years (population share in NW: 27%) and 3 (1.6%) were children under 14 years (population share in NW: 13%) [ 32 , 90 ]. The ratio of men (65) to women (70) among fatalities was balanced in RP, while in NW about twice as many men (31) as women (18) died [ 32 ]. This is consistent with sources suggesting that men are less likely to take protective measures, such as evacuations [ 91 ]. The gender ratio in RP is consistent with patterns in storm surges (1953, 1962). The ratio in NW corresponds to the pattern of flood victims in Europe, the United States, and Australia [ 32 ]. People with physical or mental disabilities were particularly affected: twelve residents of a care facility died in their flooded living quarters [ 32 ].

Another vulnerable group are first responders. They are exposed to great physical dangers – through injuries, poisoning and great psychological strain. Disaster preparedness and post-disaster care can reduce the vulnerability of this group. An American study on the health risks associated with clean-up work after extreme events found that occupational fatalities occurred a median of 36.5 days after a storm (surge) event and were most common in clean-up (44%), restorative construction (26%), public utility restoration (8%) and preservation of law and order (6%) [ 92 ]. Animal bites are also described among rescue workers and animal owners [ 65 ].

3. Adaptation measures to increase resilience to extreme weather events

In order to increase resilience to extreme weather events, preventive precautionary and adaptation measures can be taken. These include measures that address different types of events as well as event-specific measures.

Self-protection is an important element of security provision for society as a whole. Since rescue forces cannot be everywhere at once during large-scale catastrophic events and may also be affected themselves, it may take some time until state assistance arrives. A population that has prepared for emergency situations in advance makes a significant contribution to coping with emergency situations collectively [ 93–95 ]. Social networks are an important asset for the emergence of spontaneous civil disaster relief, which is often of high importance in the first hours after a disaster [ 96 ]. Strengthening social networks in associations, faith-based institutions and through various forms of voluntary work is an abstract and difficult goal to achieve, but nevertheless an important building block of social resilience. As a first step, politics and society must recognise the importance of such networks for societal resilience in order to promote these institutions.

The Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz und Katastrophenhilfe, BBK) offers various pages with recommendations for action responding to different types of hazards (e.g. heavy rain, storms, heatwaves) on its website [ 94 , 97 ]. Likewise, timely risk communication and warning of the population is essential to minimise health impacts of extreme weather events. For this purpose, a mix of warning systems (e.g. sirens, mobile phone apps, cell broadcast – messages to all mobile phone users of selected radio cells) is used in Germany and is being further developed. The earlier the population is warned, the sooner they can prepare for the event and take precautionary measures or evacuate from an affected area [ 95 , 98 , 99 ].

Securing the water supply during and after extreme weather events is particularly important. Three areas of responsibility can be named for this: Water supply companies draw up action plans to maintain the supply. If the supply can no longer be maintained in the event of an incident, municipalities, through local disaster relief authorities among others, can (with the support of the district or the federal state) help with replacement supply measures (e.g. temporary laying of connecting pipes). If the extent of a supply failure increases, the Federal Government can contribute to the replacement supply (e.g. through self-sufficient wells, transport containers, mobile treatment plants) in accordance with §12 of the German Civil Protection and Disaster Relief Act. After flooding or during drought events, municipalities can issue orders to boil all drinking water to kill germs and thus ensure a safe drinking water quality [ 100 ].

In order to describe flood risks and damage potentials in Germany and Europe and to focus related measures, the EU directive on the assessment and management of flood risks [ 101 ] came into force on November 26, 2007 and was transposed into national law on March 01, 2010. Furthermore, a national spatial development plan for flood protection came into force on September 01, 2021 [ 102 ]. Likewise, heavy rain hazard maps can help to raise awareness among the population or help those responsible to take necessary structural measures [ 103 ].

In order to protect the particularly vulnerable group of emergency personnel in forest fires and to prepare them for operations, the German fire brigade association has published a recommendation on safety and tactics during vegetation fires [ 104 ]. The population can be informed about forest fire hazards and correct behaviour by means of information boards, flyers [ 81 , 105 ] and other services such as the forest fire hazard index [ 106 ] and grassland fire index [ 107 ] of the German Meteorological Service (both currently available from March to October each year). In addition, silvicultural measures can be implemented to prevent forest fires, such as creating firebreaks or increasing the proportion of hardwoods in coniferous forests and reforesting with deciduous trees instead of conifers [ 105 ]. For early detection and suppression of forest fires, an automated early wildfire detection system is used in Lower Saxony, Brandenburg, Berlin, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt [ 105 , 108 ].

A political framework for strengthening Germany’s resilience to extreme weather events is provided by strategies that can be used to define and implement measures, e.g. the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, the German Strategy for Strengthening Resilience to Disasters and the National Water Strategy for Germany [ 109–111 ].

4. Discussion and conclusion

Extreme weather events, which already posed substantial health risks for Germany in the past, are expected to occur more frequently in the future due to climate change. The evidence is clearest for heatwaves, but hydrological events (heavy rain, floods, droughts) are also likely to increase. For storms, however, the evidence is less clear.

A key message at this point is that extreme weather events can only trigger disasters if they hit a vulnerable population and/or a vulnerable infrastructure. Although the complexity of human-environment systems makes it impossible to predict all interactions, adaptation measures can significantly reduce the risk. Many adaptation measures protect against different risks at the same time. In addition to planning measures, these include increasing the population’s ability to protect itself through knowledge and strengthening of social networks.

The healthcare system must be able to respond to extreme weather events on different time scales. In disaster situations, injuries and poisonings must be treated on site and it is necessary to ensure continuous care for those pregnant or with pre-existing conditions in order to minimise long-term consequences. When organising relief efforts, it is important to consider vulnerable groups and their needs. For this purpose, it would be important, for example, to know the residence of those people who cannot independently evacuate in the event of a disaster. In the medium and long term, the restoration of mental health is important, and healthcare resources must be earmarked for this. This also means that capacity building to respond to the challenges outlined here in the short, medium and long term must be part of climate change adaptation. In addition to disaster management, this also applies to the healthcare system, where necessary backup capacities must be created and permanently maintained.

One difficulty in recording the health impacts of extreme weather events is often inadequate data – both with regard to the events themselves and the health consequences. Especially the indirect consequences that unfold via cascading risks are not systematically recorded. For improved risk management, the creation of a database with comparable case studies would be an important knowledge base. This should integrate the different types of data and knowledge mentioned – from meteorological observations to descriptions of the event by the population – and thus enable the measuring of cascading effects.

In view of the available knowledge on future developments, it is advisable for all actors to review existing levels of protection. Authorities, the healthcare system, civil society and citizens must be aware of the shift in risks and actively adapt within their scope of action. Particular attention must be paid to vulnerable groups who cannot help themselves. How society deals with changing risks will pose major challenges in the coming decades. This includes negotiating responsibilities for preparedness and loss management. One important key to promoting social resilience in this context is empowering people to protect themselves – individually and in social networks.

Key statements

• Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events.
• Extreme weather events can trigger disasters through complex interactions with amplifying factors.
• Extreme weather events have a variety of indirect consequences that can be conceptualised as cascading risks.
• Existing data are insufficient for the detailed analysis of cascading risks.
• In addition to government agencies, the population must also be empowered to contribute independently to crisis management in the event of a disaster (self-protection).
• Various components of the risk management strategies for extreme weather events must be reviewed and, if necessary, adapted to climate change.

Funding Statement

Liza-Marie Beckers works in the BMDV Expert Network, which is funded by the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport.

The publication was coordinated through the project KlimGesundAkt, which is funded by the Federal Ministry of Health (chapter 1504; title 54401 HJ2021; duration 07/2021–06/2024).

The German version of the article is available at: www.rki.de/jhealthmonit

Conflicts of interest

The authors declared no conflicts of interest.

Acknowledgement

The KlimGesundAkt coordination team at Robert Koch Institute would like to thank the following persons for their work on the project’s advisory board: Sophie Gepp, Elke Hertig, Claudia Hornberg, Tanja-Maria Kessel, Andreas Matzarakis, Odile Mekel, Susanne Moebus, Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit, Alexandra Schneider, Klaus Stark, Wolfgang Straff and Maike Voss.

Note: External contributions do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Robert Koch Institute

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• 22 August 2024

Extreme heat is a huge killer — these local approaches can keep people safe

• Alix Soliman

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Phoenix, Arizona, can regularly experience temperatures above 40°C during its hottest months. Credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty

This story is part of special report on science and extreme heat. Read about the scientists studying how scorching temperatures affect the body , how climate change is intensifying health problems and the record-breaking warming at the Great Barrier Reef .

George Luber was warming up to compete in his third tennis match on a hot summer’s day in Connecticut. Suddenly, in a daze, he started to drift in circles around the end of the court. Then he began vomiting. The next thing Luber remembers is waking up in hospital, where he was treated for heat stroke for three days. He was a healthy 12-year-old, and it was 1982.

What is the hottest temperature humans can survive? These labs are redefining the limit

Luber, now a medical anthropologist at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia, knows that those most at risk from extreme heat include older people, pregnant women and outdoor workers. But his experience shows that hot weather can affect you even “if you’re a healthy young person with no pre-existing conditions”.

Extreme heat is a serious public-health threat: on average, it kills more people in the United States than any other weather event, including hurricanes, floods and extreme cold. The effects of scorching temperatures are exacerbated in cities, where buildings and roads soak up warmth. As Earth’s warming climate intensifies the problem , scientists are investigating evidence-based measures to make cities safer during hot periods. Researchers say that although progress has been made to address the threat, there are still obstacles to cities’ efforts to track mortality rates and implement solutions.

Hotspots and habits

Luber has seen first hand the devastating effect that scorching temperatures can have in cities. In 2003, when he was studying extreme heat at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, more than 70,000 people died in one of Europe’s worst heatwaves. Luber flew to Paris, which was particularly hard hit, to study the event. “The morgues were overflowing,” he says. “They had to get refrigerated trucks to put the bodies in and it was a massive panic.”

Extreme heat harms health — what is the human body’s limit?

Cities are hotspots because of the urban ‘heat island’ effect: buildings, roads and other impervious surfaces absorb the Sun’s heat during the day and radiate warmth into the night, raising air temperatures. High night-time temperatures amplify the problem, Luber says, because the body can only withstand searing heat for short periods . Illnesses related to heat can develop slowly, when people cannot find respite for several days. That’s why the highest mortality rates occur a few days into a heatwave, he says.

The stagnant air that accompanies a heatwave also magnifies air pollution, because ground-level ozone and particulate matter become more concentrated when the air does not circulate. Cities with high levels of air pollution, such as Los Angeles in California and Beijing face dismal air quality when the heat rises. This can compound the effects of heat on health.

Cooling stations with water can help people to lower their core body temperatures when conditions are scorching. Credit: Vishal Bhatnagar/NurPhoto via Getty

As the climate changes , places already burdened with extreme heat are now projected to have more dangerous heat days per year. But heatwaves will be deadliest in places that have historically not suffered from extreme high temperatures, Luber says, “because dealing with the heat is not only a physical thing, it’s a cultural and behavioural thing”.

Local solutions

Small shifts in behaviour alone will not protect people from heat. Eleni Myrivili is global chief heat officer at the United Nations Human Settlements Programme and is based in Athens, where summer temperatures can exceed 40°C. A 16-day heatwave in the city this July was “absolutely unbearable”, Myrivili says. “It’s almost like the whole city is in a state of depression. Nobody wants to do anything, everybody’s feeling kind of nauseated and kind of weird.”

Cities should approach the problem by raising awareness, providing resources and redesigning the built environment, Myrivili says.

Vulnerable populations, including people living in poverty, need to know that they are at risk and where they can access services when temperatures rise. Myrivili suggests that cities set up cooling stations — with air conditioners, fans and water — in areas that have the least relief from the heat, so that people can lower their core body temperatures for a recommended 2–3 hours per day. She also says that insurance should be available to people who work outdoors to cover lost wages when weather conditions make working unsafe.

Such a scheme was trialled in India in May, which has been experiencing periods of deadly heat. A non-profit organization called Climate Resilience for All partnered with the insurance company Swiss Re to help cover the lost wages of 46,000 women when temperatures became dangerous.

Dileep Mavalankar, former director of the Indian Institute of Public Health in Gandhinagar, helped to create India’s first ‘heat action plan’ in the city of Ahmedabad in 2013 after a 2010 heatwave killed 1,344 people there. The plan includes making public announcements in the days before high temperatures, providing cooling stations and preparing the emergency services for the event.

Cities must protect people from extreme heat

Mavalankar says that although these measures are probably helping, he cannot assess by how much, because death-registration data are not systematically made public.

Even in places where national data are available, gaps in local information can make understanding and addressing the problem difficult. Greece, for instance, does not collect hospital data linking mortality and morbidity to extreme heat. Instead, after a heatwave, the national death toll is estimated by comparing how many people normally die with how many people died during the hot period. Myrivili doesn’t know how many died during the latest heatwave in Athens, or which areas were hit the hardest.

Green cities

Redesigning cities to have more green, natural features that provide shade and release moisture is the next step. Growing trees and increasing access to cool outdoor spaces “can make a difference between life and death”, Myrivili says. But “even though we know, generally, what the solutions are, they need to be custom made and adapted to the specifics of very localized challenges”.

A study published on 12 August in Nature Medicine 1 shows that some strategies might be working. Elisa Gallo, an epidemiologist at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health in Spain, and her colleagues estimated that 47,690 people in Europe died from heat in 2023. Using statistical modelling, the team calculated that if the record-breaking heat of 2023 had occurred at the start of the century, the death toll would have been 80% higher than if it had happened between 2015 and 2019.

The city of Fort Collins in Colorado is working with scientists to introduce effective cooling features such as trees. Credit: Marek Uliasz/Alamy

Although it’s not clear which policies work best, Gallo says that European countries are now better able to protect people than they were in 2003. Her next step is to assess the strategies key to achieving this. “Climate change needs to be considered as a health issue,” Gallo says, adding that extreme-weather events might be the easiest way for people to understand that.

Better data

Improved data collection is one thing that would help scientists to assess strategies’ effectiveness. For instance, many studies analysing the urban heat-island effect use satellite data, which tend to measure surface temperatures. Melissa McHale, an urban ecologist at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada, says that can lead to misguided policies.

She offers the example of painting roads and buildings white. “We realized when we were standing in those white places that it was really uncomfortable, but from the satellite it looked cooler,” she says. Instead of absorbing the Sun’s heat, white roads reflect it onto people — who experience radiant and ambient air temperatures rather than the surface temperature, she says. Although studies show that making roofs white can reduce temperatures in cities by a couple of degrees, painting roads white — as has been done in Phoenix, Arizona, and Los Angeles — could worsen the problem for pedestrians.

McHale is working with the city of Fort Collins in Colorado on which solutions to implement and where — such as the addition of trees to bus stops. Her team is measuring air temperatures around homes and analysing water and energy consumption — a hyper-local approach that she says will help the city to budget resources to improve people’s comfort.

She also suggests that cities dedicate more space to parks, but notes that this is difficult when balancing needs such as affordable housing and keeping water use low in arid places.

The idea of ‘depaving’ — tearing out roads and car parks and replacing them with green space — is growing in popularity in cities such as Portland, Oregon, and Amsterdam. “We’re addicted to the car, and it’s going to be hard to build liveable cities when we’re building cities for cars,” McHale says.

There is promise in the fact that cities are constantly being rebuilt, Luber says — the average construction turnover is 30–50 years. “Every single heat death can be prevented, we just need to have the resources and willingness to do it.”

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-02705-x

Gallo, E. et al. Nature Medicine https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-024-03186-1 (2024).

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Questions? Please Contact Us. Skip to global NPS navigation Skip to the main content Skip to the footer section Exiting nps.gov Stormy weather, nor'easters in new england. cold fronts in texas. orange streams in alaska. in this issue, we see how park and partner scientists are working to understand extreme weather impacts. and how other kinds of extremes can affect our practice of science.. By Marie Lawrence Image credit: NPS If I had to pick one theme running through this issue, it would be extremes. Extreme weather for one. Because as author Catherine Schmitt tells us , that’s how we each personally experience climate change. I was in New York City in 2012 when Hurricane Sandy hit. I spent much of that experience in a stairwell. That’s because the supposedly fortified glass windows in my apartment were shaking alarmingly from the storm raging outside. The next morning, the cars in front of my building were in water up to the door handles. As Schmitt points out, many of us have stories like that, and sharing them is a good way to start talking about climate science. Sometimes, parks don’t know as much as they need to about threats accelerated by climate change, like landslides, until someone takes the time to study them, as Jonathan Malzone’s article relates. With knowledge comes the power to take actions that work. Whether they’re to protect songbirds from dying needlessly because we love our picture windows , as Reimer and coauthors tell us. To foster healthy pollinator populations like fledgling scientists Grace Kowalski and Nina Crawford did. To improve safety for those who study radioactive fossils, as in Karina Rapp’s story. Or, as Nicole Frey and Chad Wildermuth point out, to protect wildlife from well-meaning but misguided attention. Parks are intimately connected to the landscapes around them and to the broader global climate. For some, the impacts of this are as vivid and unnerving as the Alaskan orange streams in Nina Chambers’ article . How healthy a park wetland is could affect flood water levels and the safety of nearby communities, as the lead feature article by Jason Flynn and Lauren Gibson illustrates. Extreme cold weather from the north has had a devastating impact on an ancient and globally imperiled species in the south, the green sea turtles talked about in Donna Shaver and J. Shelby Walker’s story. The article by Jeb Wofford and Even Childress tells us that some eastern rivers are losing valuable native fish because the water is too warm . People from different jurisdictions are coming together to save species essential to our nation’s character. But hope, as Emily Dickinson said, is the thing with feathers. It prevails. In some cases, it manifests when scientists and land managers cooperate to protect resources pushed to the extreme. People from different jurisdictions are coming together to save species essential to our nation’s character. Like the long-lived whitebark pine in the story by the Five Needle Pines Team . Or the immense sagebrush habitat described by Tom Rodhouse and colleagues . Both of these stories and the lead feature show how recent federal funding through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act has energized critical work like this. Other stories in this issue are about work with a different kind of national or global impact. One is Avani Skye Fachon’s delightful tale of restoring eelgrass on the Pacific coast and the otters who appreciate it. Another is Catherine Cooper and Janine da Silva’s animated yarn about sharing a beloved sailing ship with the entire world through 3D imaging. A third is Sara Melena and Eva DiDonato’s description of a key behavioral science study on conveying information about environmentally friendly sunscreen . You may feel the urge to check the ingredient list on your own bottle. As dramatic as the physical impacts of climate change can be, it’s the mental, emotional, and social consequences that stay with us. That’s the message in the article by Julianne Reas and colleagues , who point out the wisdom of finding scientifically sound tools to prepare for the personal toll of a disaster before it hits. One of these may be finding a quiet place, something Jessica Weinberg McClosky says parks can actually map in three dimensions . But, as Michael Whiteman-Jones reveals , our life experiences and historical legacy may convince us to adopt extreme views, influencing how we and others look at science in the first place. Our biases can blind us to other ways of knowing and destroy trust. Yet being open to change and listening to what others have to say, Lina Fink reassures us , can go a long way to restoring it. About the author Marie Lawrence is the editor of Park Science magazine . You Might Also Like marie lawrence park science magazine park science journal Last updated: August 31, 2024 To revisit this article, visit My Profile, then View saved stories . The Big Story Newsletters Steven Levy's Plaintext Column WIRED Classics from the Archive WIRED Insider WIRED Consulting Your Guide to Surviving Extreme Weather This story originally appeared on Grist and is part of the Climate Desk collaboration. No matter where you live, extreme weather can hit your area, causing damage to homes, power outages, and dangerous or deadly conditions. If you’re on the coast, it may be a hurricane ; in the Midwest or South, a tornado ; in the West, wildfires ; and as we’ve seen in recent years, anywhere can experience heat waves or flash flooding . Living through a disaster and its aftermath can be both traumatic and chaotic, from the immediate losses of life and belongings to conflicting information around where to access aid. The weeks and months after may be even more difficult, as the attention on your community is gone but civic services and events have stalled or changed drastically. Grist compiled this resource guide to help you stay prepared and informed. It looks at everything from how to find the most accurate forecasts to signing up for emergency alerts to the roles that different agencies play in disaster aid. Flooding in Merced, California, following a “bomb cyclone” in January 2023. Where to Find the Facts on Disasters These days, many people find out about disasters in their area via social media. But it’s important to make sure the information you’re receiving is accurate. Here’s where to find the facts on extreme weather and the most reliable places to check for emergency alerts and updates. Your local emergency manager: Your city or county will have an emergency management department, which is part of the local government. In larger cities, it’s often a separate agency; in smaller communities, fire chiefs or sheriff’s offices may manage emergency response and alerts. Emergency managers are responsible for communicating with the public about disasters, managing rescue and response efforts, and coordinating between different agencies. They usually have an SMS-based emergency alert system, so sign up for those via your local website. (Note: Some cities have multiple languages available, but most emergency alerts are only in English.) Many emergency management agencies are active on Facebook, so check there for updates as well. Local news: The local television news and social media accounts from verified news sources will have live updates during and after a storm. Follow your local newspaper and television station on Facebook or other social media, or check their websites regularly. Weather stations and apps: The Weather Channel, Apple Weather, and Google will have information on major storms, but that may not be the case for smaller-scale weather events, and you shouldn’t rely on these apps to tell you if you need to evacuate or move to higher ground. National Weather Service: This agency, also known as NWS, is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and offers information and updates on everything from wildfires to hurricanes to air quality. You can enter your zip code on weather.gov and customize your homepage. The NWS also has regional and local branches where you can sign up for SMS alerts. If you’re in a rural area or somewhere that isn’t highlighted on its maps, keep an eye out for local alerts and evacuation orders, as NWS may not have as much information ahead of time. Cal Fire firefighters livestream images and data from efforts to contain the Park Fire near Chico, California, on July 29. How to Pack an Emergency Kit As you prepare for a storm, it’s important to have an emergency kit ready in case you lose power or need to leave your home. Review this checklist from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA , for what to pack so you can stay safe, hydrated, and healthy. These can often be expensive to create, so contact your local disaster aid organizations, houses of worship, or charities to see if there are free or affordable kits available. Try to gather as much as you can ahead of time in case shelves are empty when a storm is on the way. Some of the most important things to have: Water (one gallon per person per day for several days) Food (at least a several-day supply of nonperishable food) and an analog can opener Medicines and documentation of your medical needs Identification and proof of residency documents (see a more detailed list below) Battery-powered or hand-crank radio, batteries, flashlight First aid kit Masks, hand sanitizer, and trash bags Wrench or pliers Cell phone with chargers and a backup battery Diapers, wipes, and food or formula for babies and children Food and medicines for any household pets Don’t Forget: Documents One of the most important things to have in your emergency kit is documents you may need to prove your residence, demonstrate extent of damage, and vote. FEMA often requires you to provide these documents in order to receive financial assistance after a disaster. Government-issued ID, such as a driver’s license for each member of your household Proof of citizenship or legal residency for each member of your household (passport, green card, etc.) Social Security card for each member of your household Documentation of your medical needs, such as medications or special equipment, including oxygen tanks, wheelchairs, etc. Health insurance card Car title and registration documents Pre-disaster photos of the inside and outside of your house and belongings Copy of your homeowner’s or renter’s insurance policy For homeowners: copies of your deed, mortgage information, and flood insurance policy, if applicable For renters: a copy of your lease Financial documents such as a checkbook or voided check You can find more details about why you may need these documents here . A volunteer assesses the remains of a charred apartment complex after a wildfire swept Lahaina, Hawaii, in 2023. Disaster Aid 101 It can be hard to know who to lean on or trust when it comes to natural disasters. Where do official evacuation orders come from, for example, or whom do you call if you need to be rescued? And where can you get money to help pay for emergency housing or to rebuild your home or community? Here’s a breakdown of the government officials and agencies in charge of delivering aid before, during, and after a disaster: Emergency management agencies: Almost all cities and counties have local emergency management departments, which are part of the local government. Sometimes they’re agencies all their own, but in smaller communities, fire chiefs or sheriff’s offices may manage emergency response and alerts. These departments are the first line of defense during a weather disaster. They’re responsible for communicating with the public about incoming disasters, managing rescue and response efforts during an extreme weather event, and coordinating between different agencies. Many emergency management agencies, however, have a small staff and are underresourced. Much of the work that emergency managers do happens before a disaster: They develop response plans that lay out evacuation routes and communication procedures, and they also delegate responsibility to different government agencies like the police, fire, and public health departments. Most counties and cities publish these plans online. In most cases, they are the most trustworthy resource in the days just before and just after a hurricane or other big weather event. They’ll send out alerts and warnings, coordinate evacuation efforts, and direct survivors and victims to resources and shelter. You can find your state emergency management agency here . There isn’t a comprehensive list by county or city, but if you search your location online you’ll likely find a website, a page on the county or city website, or a Facebook page that posts updates. Law enforcement: County sheriffs and city police departments are often the largest and best-staffed agencies in a given community, so they play a key role during disasters. Sheriff’s departments often enforce mandatory evacuation orders, going door-to-door to ensure that people vacate an area. They manage traffic flow during evacuations and help conduct search and rescue operations. Law enforcement agencies may restrict access to disaster areas for the first few days after a flood or fire. In most states, city and county governments also have the power to issue curfew orders, and law enforcement officers can enforce these curfews with fines or even arrests. In some rural counties, the sheriff’s department may serve as the emergency management department. Lexington firefighters’ swift water teams rescue people stranded by extreme rain in Lost Creek, Kentucky, in 2022. Governor: State governors control several key aspects of disaster response. They have the power to declare a state of emergency, which allows them to deploy rescue and repair workers, distribute financial assistance to local governments, and activate the state National Guard. The governor has a key role in the immediate response to a disaster, but a smaller role in distributing aid and assistance to individual disaster victims. In almost all US states, and all hurricane-prone states along the Gulf of Mexico, the governor also has the power to announce mandatory evacuation orders. The penalty for not following these orders differs, but it is most often a cash fine. (Though states seldom enforce these penalties.) The state government also decides whether to implement other transportation procedures such as contraflow, where officials reverse traffic flow on one side of a highway to allow larger amounts of people to evacuate. HUD: The Department of Housing and Urban Development, or HUD, also spends billions of dollars to help communities recover after disasters, building new housing and public buildings such as schools—but this money takes much longer to arrive. Unlike FEMA, HUD must wait for Congress to approve its post-disaster work, and then it must dole out grants to states for specific projects. In some cases, such as the aftermaths of Hurricane Laura in Louisiana or Hurricane Florence in North Carolina, it took years for projects to get off the ground. States and local governments, not individual people, apply for money from HUD, but the agency can direct you to FEMA or housing counselors. A sign reading, “FEMA please help make Mexico Beach great again,” on a house damaged by Hurricane Michael in Florida in 2018. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is the federal government’s main disaster response agency. It provides assistance to states and local governments during large events like hurricanes, wildfires, and floods. FEMA is part of the Department of Homeland Security. FEMA is almost never the first resource on the ground after a disaster strikes. In order for the agency to send resources to a disaster area, the state’s governor must first request a disaster declaration from the president, and the president must approve it. For large disasters such as Category 4 or 5 hurricanes, this typically happens fast. For smaller disasters, like severe rain or flooding events, it can take weeks or even months for the president to grant a declaration and activate the agency. FEMA has historically not responded to heat waves. FEMA is broken into regional offices and offers specific contacts and information for each of those, as well as for tribal nations . You can find your FEMA region here . FEMA has two primary roles after a federally declared disaster: Contributing to community rebuilding costs: The agency helps states and local governments pay for the cost of removing debris and rebuilding public infrastructure. During the most extreme events, the agency also deploys its own teams of firefighters and rescue workers to help locate missing people, clear roadways, and restore public services. For the most part, states and local law enforcement conduct on-the-ground recovery work. ( Read more about FEMA’s responsibilities and programs here .) Individual financial assistance: FEMA provides financial assistance to people who have lost their homes and belongings. This assistance can take several forms. FEMA gives out preloaded debit cards to help people buy food and fuel in the first days after a disaster, and it may also provide cash payments for home repairs that your insurance doesn’t cover. The agency also provides up to 18 months of housing assistance for people who lose their homes in a disaster, and it sometimes houses disaster survivors in its own manufactured housing units or “FEMA trailers.” FEMA also sometimes covers funeral and grieving expenses as well as medical and dental treatment. In the aftermath of a disaster, FEMA offers survivors: A one-time payment of $750 for emergency needs Temporary housing assistance equivalent to 14 nights’ stay in a hotel in your area Up to 18 months of rental assistance Payments for lost property that isn’t covered by your homeowner’s insurance Other forms of assistance, depending on your needs and losses If you are a US citizen or meet certain qualifications as a noncitizen and live in a federal disaster declaration area, you are eligible for financial assistance . Regardless of citizenship or immigration status, if you are affected by a disaster you may be eligible for crisis counseling, disaster legal services, disaster case management, medical care, shelter, food, and water. FEMA representatives take information from people displaced by Hurricane Ian in Estero, Florida, in 2022. FEMA also runs the National Flood Insurance Program , which provides insurance coverage of up to $350,000 for home flood damage. The agency recommends that everyone who lives in a flood zone purchase this coverage—and most mortgage lenders require it for borrowers in flood zones—though many homes outside the zones are also vulnerable. You must begin paying for flood insurance at least 30 days before a disaster in order to be eligible for a payout. You can check if your home is in a flood zone by using this FEMA website . How to get FEMA aid: The easiest way to apply for individual assistance from FEMA is to fill out the application form on disasterassistance.gov . This is easiest to do from a personal computer over Wi-Fi, but you can do it from a smartphone with cellular data if necessary. This website does not become active until the president issues a disaster declaration. Some important things to know: FEMA will require you to create an account on the secure website Login.gov . Use this account to submit your aid application. You can track the status of your aid application and receive notifications if FEMA needs more documents from you. If FEMA denies your application for aid, you can appeal, but the process is lengthy. Visiting a FEMA site in your area after a disaster: FEMA disaster recovery centers are facilities and mobile units where you can find information about the agency’s programs as well as other state and local resources. FEMA representatives can help you navigate the aid application process or direct you to nonprofits, shelters, or state and local resources. Visit this website to locate a recovery center in your area or text “DRC” and a zip code to 43362. Example: DRC 01234. A woman looks over her apartment in Fort Myers, Florida, after Hurricane Ian inundated it with floodwaters in 2022. What to Expect After a Disaster Disasters affect people in many different ways, and it’s normal to grieve your losses—personal, professional, community—in your own time. Here are a few resources if you need mental health support after experiencing an extreme weather event. The National Center for PTSD , or post-traumatic stress disorder, on what to expect after experiencing a disaster. The American Red Cross has disaster mental health volunteers they often dispatch to areas hit by a disaster. The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, or SAMHSA, has a fact sheet on managing stress after a disaster. The agency has a Disaster Distress Helpline that provides 24/7 crisis counseling and support. Call or text: 1-800-985-5990 After a disaster is an especially vulnerable time. Beware of scams and make sure to know your rights. Be wary of solicitors who arrive at your home after a disaster claiming to represent FEMA or another agency. FEMA will never ask you for money. The safest way to apply for aid is through FEMA’s official website: disasterassistance.gov . Be cautious about hiring contractors or construction workers in the days after a disaster. Many cities require permits for rebuilding work, and it’s common for scammers to pose as contractors after a disaster. Renters can often face evictions after a disaster, so familiarize yourself with tenant rights in your state. Residents of Paradise, California, visit the town’s planning department to file permitting applications to rebuild homes and other structures after the devastating 2018 Camp Fire. What to Keep in Mind Before, During, and After a Disaster The most important thing to consider during a disaster is your own, your family’s, and your community’s safety. The National Weather Service has a guide for hurricanes and floods ; FEMA has a guide for wildfires ; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has a guide for extreme heat safety . A few potentially lifesaving things to remember: Never wade in floodwaters. They often contain harmful runoff from sewer systems and can cause serious illness and health issues. If it’s safe to do so, turn off electricity at the main breaker or fuse box in your home or business before a hurricane to prevent electric shock. If you lose power, never operate a generator inside your home. Generators emit carbon monoxide, a colorless and odorless gas that can be fatal if inhaled. You Might Also Like … In your inbox: Our biggest stories , handpicked for you each day How one bad CrowdStrike update crashed the world’s computers The Big Story: How soon might the Atlantic Ocean break ? Welcome to the internet's hyper-consumption era Extreme weather 101: Your guide to staying prepared and informed How to pack a go-bag, get emergency alerts, and find disaster aid.. No matter where you live, extreme weather can hit your area, causing damage to homes, power outages, and dangerous or deadly conditions. If you’re on the coast, it may be a hurricane ; in the Midwest or South, a tornado ; in the West, wildfires ; and as we’ve seen in recent years, anywhere can experience heat waves or flash flooding .  Living through a disaster and its aftermath can be both traumatic and chaotic, from the immediate losses of life and belongings to conflicting information around where to access aid. The weeks and months after may be even more difficult, as the attention on your community is gone but civic services and events have stalled or changed drastically.  Grist compiled this resource guide to help you stay prepared and informed. It looks at everything from how to find the most accurate forecasts to signing up for emergency alerts to the roles that different agencies play in disaster aid.  Where to find the facts on disasters  These days, many people find out about disasters in their area via social media. But it’s important to make sure the information you’re receiving is accurate. Here’s where to find the facts on extreme weather and the most reliable places to check for emergency alerts and updates. Grist thanks its sponsors. Become one . To support our nonprofit environmental journalism, please consider disabling your ad-blocker to allow ads on Grist. Here's How Your local emergency manager:  Your city or county will have an emergency management department, which is part of the local government. In larger cities, it’s often a separate agency; in smaller communities, fire chiefs or sheriff’s offices may manage emergency response and alerts. Emergency managers are responsible for communicating with the public about disasters, managing rescue and response efforts, and coordinating between different agencies. They usually have an SMS-based emergency alert system, so sign up for those via your local website (Note: Some cities have multiple languages available, but most emergency alerts are only in English.) Many emergency management agencies are active on Facebook, so check there for updates as well.  Local news: The local television news and social media accounts from verified news sources will have live updates during and after a storm. Follow your local newspaper and television station on Facebook or other social media, or check their websites regularly.  Weather stations and apps: The Weather Channel, Apple Weather, and Google will have information on major storms, but that may not be the case for smaller-scale weather events, and you shouldn’t rely on these apps to tell you if you need to evacuate or move to higher ground.  National Weather Service: This agency, also known as NWS, is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and offers information and updates on everything from wildfires to hurricanes to air quality. You can enter your zip code on weather.gov and customize your homepage. The NWS also has regional and local branches where you can sign up for SMS alerts. If you’re in a rural area or somewhere that isn’t highlighted on its maps, keep an eye out for local alerts and evacuation orders, as NWS may not have as much information ahead of time.   How to pack an emergency kit As you prepare for a storm, it’s important to have an emergency kit ready in case you lose power or need to leave your home. Review this checklist from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA , for what to pack so you can stay safe, hydrated, and healthy.  These can often be expensive to create, so contact your local disaster aid organizations, houses of worship, or charities to see if there are free or affordable kits available. Try to gather as much as you can ahead of time in case shelves are empty when a storm is on the way. Some of the most important things to have: Water (one gallon per person per day for several days) Food (at least a several-day supply of non-perishable food) and a can opener Medicines and documentation of your medical needs Identification and proof of residency documents (see a more detailed list below) Battery-powered or hand crank radio, batteries, flashlight First aid kit Masks, hand sanitizer, and trash bags  Wrench or pliers  Cell phone with chargers and a backup battery Diapers, wipes, and food or formula for babies and children Food and medicines for any household pets Don’t forget: Documents One of the most important things to have in your emergency kit is documents you may need to prove your residence, demonstrate extent of damage, and vote. FEMA often requires you to provide these documents in order to receive financial assistance after a disaster. Government issued ID, such as a drivers’ license for for each member of your household Proof of citizenship or legal residency for each member of your household (passport, green card, etc.) Social Security card for each member of your household Documentation of your medical needs, such as medications or special equipment including oxygen tanks, wheelchairs, etc. Health insurance card Car title and registration documents Pre-disaster photos of the inside and outside of your house and belongings Copy of your homeowners’ or renters’ insurance policy For homeowners: copies of your deed, mortgage information, and flood insurance policy, if applicable For renters: a copy of your lease Financial documents such as a checkbook or voided check You can find more details about why you may need these documents here . Disaster aid 101 It can be hard to know who to lean on or trust when it comes to natural disasters. Where do official evacuation orders come from, for example, or who do you call if you need to be rescued? And where can you get money to help pay for emergency housing or to rebuild your home or community. Here’s a breakdown of the government officials and agencies in charge of delivering aid before, during, and after a disaster: Emergency management agencies: Almost all cities and counties have local emergency management departments, which are part of the local government. Sometimes they’re agencies all their own, but in smaller communities, fire chiefs or sheriff’s offices may manage emergency response and alerts. These departments are the first line of defense during a weather disaster. They’re responsible for communicating with the public about incoming disasters, managing rescue and response efforts during an extreme weather event, and coordinating between different agencies. Many emergency management agencies, however, have a small staff and are under-resourced. Much of the work that emergency managers do happens before a disaster: They develop response plans that lay out evacuation routes and communication procedures, and they also delegate responsibility to different government agencies like the police, fire, and public health departments. Most counties and cities publish these plans online.  In most cases, they are the most trustworthy resource in the days just before and just after a hurricane or other big weather event. They’ll send out alerts and warnings, coordinate evacuation efforts, and direct survivors and victims to resources and shelter. You can find your state emergency management agency here . There isn’t a comprehensive list by county or city, but if you search your location online you’ll likely find a website, a page on the county or city website, or a Facebook page that posts updates.  Law enforcement: County sheriffs and city police departments are often the largest and best-staffed agencies in a given community, so they play a key role during disasters. Sheriff’s departments often enforce mandatory evacuation orders, going door-to-door to ensure that people vacate an area. They manage traffic flow during evacuations and help conduct search and rescue operations.  Law enforcement agencies may restrict access to disaster areas for the first few days after a flood or fire. In most states, city and county governments also have the power to issue curfew orders, and law enforcement officers can enforce these curfews with fines or even arrests. In some rural counties, the sheriff’s department may serve as the emergency management department.  Governor: State governors control several key aspects of disaster response. They have the power to declare a state of emergency, which allows them to deploy rescue and repair workers, distribute financial assistance to local governments, and activate the state National Guard. The governor has a key role in the immediate response to a disaster, but a smaller role in distributing aid and assistance to individual disaster victims. In almost all U.S. states, and all hurricane-prone states along the Gulf of Mexico, the governor also has the power to announce mandatory evacuation orders. The penalty for not following these orders differs, but is most often a cash fine. (Though states seldom enforce these penalties.) The state government also decides whether to implement other transportation procedures such as contraflow, where officials reverse traffic flow on one side of a highway to allow larger amounts of people to evacuate.  HUD: The Department of Housing and Urban Development, or HUD, also spends billions of dollars to help communities recover after disasters, building new housing and public buildings such as schools — but this money takes much longer to arrive. Unlike FEMA, HUD must wait for Congress to approve its post-disaster work, and then it must dole out grants to states for specific projects. In some cases, such as the aftermaths of Hurricane Laura in Louisiana or Hurricane Florence in North Carolina, it took years for projects to get off the ground. States and local governments, not individual people, apply for money from HUD, but the agency can direct you to FEMA or housing counselors. The Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA , is the federal government’s main disaster response agency. It provides assistance to states and local governments during large events like hurricanes, wildfires, and floods. FEMA is part of the Department of Homeland Security. FEMA is almost never the first resource on the ground after a disaster strikes. In order for the agency to send resources to a disaster area, the state’s governor must first request a disaster declaration from the president, and the president must approve it. For large disasters such as Category 4 or 5 hurricanes, this typically happens fast. For smaller disasters, like severe rain or flooding events, it can take weeks or even months for the president to grant a declaration and activate the agency. FEMA has historically not responded to heat waves. FEMA is broken into regional offices and offers specific contacts and information for each of those, as well as for tribal nations . You can find your FEMA region here . FEMA has two primary roles after a federally declared disaster: Contributing to community rebuilding costs: The agency helps states and local governments pay for the cost of removing debris and rebuilding public infrastructure. During only the most extreme events, the agency also deploys its own teams of firefighters and rescue workers to help locate missing people, clear roadways, and restore public services. For the most part, states and local law enforcement conduct on-the-ground recovery work. ( Read more about FEMA’s responsibilities and programs here .) Individual financial assistance : FEMA gives out financial assistance to individual people who have lost their homes and belongings. This assistance can take several forms. FEMA gives out pre-loaded debit cards to help people buy food and fuel in the first days after a disaster, and may also provide cash payments for home repairs that your insurance doesn’t cover. The agency also provides up to 18 months of housing assistance for people who lose their homes in a disaster, and sometimes houses disaster survivors in its own manufactured housing units or “FEMA trailers.” FEMA also sometimes covers funeral and grieving expenses as well as medical and dental treatment. In the aftermath of a disaster, FEMA offers survivors: A one-time payment of $750 for emergency needs Temporary housing assistance equivalent to 14 nights’ stay in a hotel in your area  Up to 18 months of rental assistance Payments for lost property that isn’t covered by your homeowner’s insurance And other forms of assistance, depending on your needs and losses If you are a U.S. citizen or meet certain qualifications as a non-citizen and live in a federal disaster declaration area, you are eligible for financial assistance . Regardless of citizenship or immigration status, if you are affected by a disaster you may be eligible for crisis counseling, disaster legal services, disaster case management, medical care, shelter, food, and water.  FEMA also runs the National Flood Insurance Program , which provides insurance coverage of up to $350,000 for home flood damage. The agency recommends that everyone who lives in a flood zone purchase this coverage — and most mortgage lenders require it for borrowers in flood zones — though many homes outside the zones are also vulnerable. You must begin paying for flood insurance at least 30 days before a disaster in order to be eligible for a payout. You can check if your home is in a flood zone by using this FEMA website . How to get FEMA aid: The easiest way to apply for individual assistance from FEMA is to fill out the application form on disasterassistance.gov . This is easiest to do from a personal computer over Wi-Fi, but you can do it from a smartphone with cellular data if necessary. This website does not become active until the president issues a disaster declaration. Some important things to know: FEMA will require you to create an account on the secure website Login.gov . Use this account to submit your aid application.  You can track the status of your aid application and receive notifications if FEMA needs more documents from you.  If FEMA denies your application for aid, you can appeal, but the process is lengthy.  Visiting a FEMA site in your area after a disaster: FEMA disaster recovery centers are facilities and mobile units where you can find information about the agency’s programs as well as other state and local resources. FEMA representatives can help you navigate the aid application process or direct you to nonprofits, shelters, or state and local resources. Visit this website to locate a recovery center in your area or text DRC and a ZIP Code to 43362. Example: DRC 01234.   What to expect after a disaster Disasters affect people in many different ways, and it’s normal to grieve your losses — personal, professional, community — in your own time. Here are a few resources if you need mental health support after experiencing an extreme weather event. The National Center for PTSD , or post-traumatic stress disorder, on what to expect after experiencing a disaster. The American Red Cross has disaster mental health volunteers they often dispatch to areas hit by a disaster. The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, or SAMHSA, has a fact sheet on managing stress after a disaster. The agency has a Disaster Distress Helpline that provides 24/7 crisis counseling and support. Call or text: 1-800-985-5990 After a disaster is an especially vulnerable time. Beware of scams and make sure to know your rights.  Be wary of solicitors who arrive at your home after a disaster claiming to represent FEMA or another agency. FEMA will never ask you for money. The safest way to apply for aid is through FEMA’s official website: disasterassistance.gov .  Be cautious about hiring contractors or construction workers in the days after a disaster. Many cities require permits for rebuilding work, and it’s common for scammers to pose as contractors after a disaster.  Renters can often face evictions after a disaster, so familiarize yourself with tenant rights in your state.  What to keep in mind before, during, and after a disaster The most important thing to consider during a disaster is your own, your family’s, and your community’s safety. The National Weather Service has a guide for hurricanes and floods ; FEMA has a guide for wildfires ; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has a guide for extreme heat safety . A few potentially life-saving things to remember: Never wade in floodwaters. They often contain harmful runoff from sewer systems and can cause serious illness and health issues. If it’s safe to do so, turn off electricity at the main breaker or fuse box in your home or business before a hurricane to prevent electric shock.  If you lose power, never operate a generator inside your home. Generators emit carbon monoxide, a colorless and odorless gas that can be fatal if inhaled. Did we miss something? Please let us know by emailing [email protected]. A message from    All donations matched for a limited time! Grist is the only award-winning newsroom focused on exploring equitable solutions to climate change. It’s vital reporting made entirely possible by loyal readers like you. At Grist, we don’t believe in paywalls. Instead, we rely on our readers to pitch in what they can so that we can continue bringing you our solution-based climate news. Donate now, and your gift has twice the impact. All donations matched for a limited time. Grist is the only award-winning newsroom focused on exploring equitable solutions to climate change. It’s vital reporting made entirely possible by loyal readers like you. At Grist, we don’t believe in paywalls. Instead, we rely on our readers to pitch in what they can so that we can continue bringing you our solution-based climate news. All donations matched for a limited time.  How the Marshall Fire sparked a political transformation in Colorado State of emergency, they settled in houston after katrina — and then faced a political storm, your guide to voting after a disaster, can chief heat officers protect us cities from extreme heat, gop-run districts get 85% of the benefit of climate law. some still hate it., how climate change is expanding the reach of eee, a rare and deadly mosquito-borne illness, nyc’s food delivery workers are sweltering in the heat — and demanding more protection, states are falling behind in using ira funding to advance climate action, modal gallery. Work & Careers Life & Arts What caused the fatal sinking of the superyacht Bayesian? To read this article for free, register for ft edit now. 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See why over a million readers pay to read the Financial Times. 497 IMAGES Extreme Weather: Understanding the Science of Hurricanes, Tornadoes Extreme weather U.S. experiences warmest and second most extreme weather year ever Extreme Weather Links between climate change and extreme weather are increasingly clear New extreme weather pattern emerging: Wintry West and record-warm East VIDEO Record-breaking extreme weather events have been occurring around the world PS01.3: Clinical Reasoning or Clinically Conceding: A Case Study of the Administrative Appeal The State of the Consulting Industry with KPMG, Kearney, L.E.K. & more COMMENTS Extreme Weather Scientists use a combination of climate models (simulations) and land, air, sea, and space-based observations to research how extreme weather events change over time. First, scientists examine historical records to determine the frequency and intensity of past events. Many of these long-term records date back to the 1950s, though some start in ... Weather and Climate Extremes Case studies, methodological approaches, impact studies, but also studies on the natural and anthropogenic drivers of weather and climate extremes will be considered. PDF 9 In this chapter, case studies are used as examples of how to gain a better understanding of the risks posed by extreme weather and climate-related events while identifying lessons and best practices from past responses to such occurrences. Extreme Weather Events and Human Health: International Case Studies About this book This edited book assesses the impacts of various extreme weather events on human health and development from a global perspective, and includes several case studies in various geographical regions around the globe. Covering all continents, it describes the impact of extreme weather conditions such as flash floods, heatwaves, cold waves, droughts, forest fires, strong winds and ... Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world Using the map The map above shows 504 extreme weather events and trends across the globe for which scientists have carried out attribution studies. The different symbols show the type of extreme weather; for example, a heatwave, flood or drought. The colours indicate whether the attribution study found a link to human-caused climate change (red), no link (blue) or was inconclusive (grey). Attributing extreme weather to climate change This page explains how we study extreme weather events, to see if climate change was a cause. These attribution studies help shape our understanding of climate change and its impacts. A case study of impacts of an extreme weather system on the A case study of impacts of an extreme weather system on the Mediterranean Sea circulation features: Medicane Apollo (2021) Milena Menna, Riccardo Martellucci, Marco Reale, Gianpiero Cossarini, Global warming is contributing to extreme weather events Global warming is making some extreme weather events worse. As Earth's climate has warmed, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded around the world. Scientists identify these extreme weather events based on the historical record of weather in a particular region. How climate change worsens heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and floods Extreme weather is becoming more frequent and more intense in many places because of climate change. Extreme weather should be defined according to impacts on climate Defining thresholds for extreme weather events is important for adaptation but often ignores impacts on climate-vulnerable communities. This research finds current practices do not capture ... Climate Case Studies Climate Case Studies. In North Carolina's Outer Banks, the coastal Town of Nags Head is vulnerable to flooding from heavy rain events, hurricanes, tropical storms, nor'easters, and storm surge. To add insult to injury, vulnerability is increasing with sea level rise. Town managers and residents recognized the need to build the town's ... The Influence of Climate Change on Extreme Environmental Events Climate change affects global temperature and precipitation patterns. These effects, in turn, influence the intensity and, in some cases, the frequency of extreme environmental events, such as forest fires, hurricanes, heat waves, floods, droughts, and storms. Does Climate Change Cause Extreme Weather? The video can also be connected to a real-world example of an extreme weather event that is attributed to climate change. Educators can ask students to reflect on the causation and correlation between global climate change and the frequency of extreme weather. Inventories of extreme weather events and impacts: Implications for For example, inventories provide case studies of adaptation being to some degree unsuccessful, thus contributing to the 'experiences and lessons learned' element that is core to international cooperation. The changing nature of extreme weather and climate events: risks to For example, a mitigation project that improves energy security and access by providing power from renewable energy sources to remote rural communities can at the same time reduce vulnerability to extreme weather and climate events through use of refrigeration to store foods and medication. Advancements in forecasting and warnings helped save lives during Expert meteorologists at AccuWeather say advancements in long-range forecasting, rapid alerts providing people with more time to prepare, and ongoing collaborations helped to save lives and ... Weather case studies A selection of case studies of different types of severe weather. Extreme weather is outpacing even the worst-case scenarios of our In the wake of the destructive Hurricane Otis, we find ourselves at a pivotal moment in the history of weather forecasting. The hurricane roared ashore with 165mph winds and torrential rainfall ... Case study as a research strategy: investigating extreme weather Case study, experiment, survey, action research, grounded theory and ethnography are examples for such research strategies. Case study is documented as an empirical inquiry that investigates a contemporary phenomenon within its real-life context, especially when the boundaries between phenomenon and context are not clearly evident. Extreme Weather and Climate Change The video could be used to begin a larger discussion about the relationship between weather and climate, potentially using the main points to create further questions. Could be a good introduction to any unit of instruction dealing with the effects of climate change on Earth systems. Be aware that some concepts may need elaboration for younger ... Health impacts of extreme weather events Health impacts of selected extreme weather events. In this section, first the theoretical perspective on cascading risks is outlined. It is then applied to the extreme weather events under consideration - floods, storms, droughts and fires - in order to systematically illustrate the health impacts of these events. PDF Implications of Extreme Weather Events To ensure the widest use of this research, the ESRI platform will hold interactive datasets convening current weather research, modeled forecasts in shifts for each extreme weather event trigger, thresholds for potential impact, and the case studies to focus data pertinent to each region, sector, and national security implication key concept of their concern. The platform allows for display ... Extreme heat is a huge killer Extreme heat is a serious public-health threat: on average, it kills more people in the United States than any other weather event, including hurricanes, floods and extreme cold. Event Summaries and Case Studies Event Summaries and Case Studies Weather.gov Newport/Morehead City, NC 2024 January 9th-10th, 2024 --- Tornadoes and Damaging Winds 2023 December 17th-18th, 2023 --- Strong Nor'easter September 22-23, 2023 --- Tropical Storm Ophelia August 30-31, 2023 --- Tropical Cyclone Idalia May 9, 2023 Large Hail and Damaging Wind 2022 Stormy Weather If I had to pick one theme running through this issue, it would be extremes. Extreme weather for one. Because as author Catherine Schmitt tells us, that's how we each personally experience climate change. I was in New York City in 2012 when Hurricane Sandy hit. I spent much of that experience in a stairwell. Your Guide to Surviving Extreme Weather Weather stations and apps: The Weather Channel, Apple Weather, and Google will have information on major storms, but that may not be the case for smaller-scale weather events, and you shouldn't ... Extreme weather 101: Your guide to staying prepared and informed Weather stations and apps: The Weather Channel, Apple Weather, and Google will have information on major storms, but that may not be the case for smaller-scale weather events, and you shouldn't ... Extreme Heat: How it can impact your business and success Explore the consequences of extreme heat on businesses, from decreased productivity to heightened health threats, and learn how to reduce risks with AccuWeather. What caused the fatal sinking of the superyacht Bayesian? The rapid sinking of such a large, modern and well-equipped yacht due to bad weather, rather than as a result of a collision, has raised concerns over marine safety as extreme weather events occur ... Is Extreme Weather Changing Belief in Global Climate Change? Extreme Weather Around the World. Across the 17 studied countries, most respondents (roughly six in 10) said they experienced extreme weather in 2022, 2023, and the first half of 2024—particularly extreme summer heat. ... For example, the percentage of respondents who believe climate change is an emergency is relatively low in Germany (51% ... assignment essay homework phd report resume review speech thesis