This Company Was Hit With a Devastating Ransomware Attack—But Instead of Giving In, It Rebuilt Everything

a case study norsk

A s the threat of ransomware grows, companies have felt pressed to pay massive amounts to hackers holding systems hostage. One business decided not to give in to their attackers’ demands.

Cyberattacks like the recent global attack that impacted multiple companies over the Fourth of July weekend, this spring’s disruptive attack on Colonial Pipeline and 2017’s infamous WannaCry virus are only growing in frequency and cost. The last five years especially has shown a marked increase, with attackers holding information and digital architecture hostage while demanding greater and greater ransoms.

In 2021, major critical infrastructure systems have become a favorite target of hacker organizations. The early May attack on Colonial Pipeline , a major oil provider on the East Coast, not only showed how brittle corporate cybersecurity standards can be, but also that integral businesses can potentially be extorted into paying ransoms. Colonial Pipeline paid the attackers $4.4 million (with much of it recovered by the U.S. government) and the incident led to widespread gas shortages.

But if a company can be hacked once, it stands to reason that they can be hacked again.

When Norsk Hydro, a Norwegian renewable energy and aluminum manufacturing company, recently faced a ransomware attack, they handled it in a different way. They refused to pay the ransom, and took up the task of removing the virus from the equation altogether.

Read more: Biden Administration Says Talks with Russia on Cyber Attacks Are Progressing. Privately, Staffers Are Skeptical

In March of 2019, on the day Hilde Merete Aasheim was appointed Norsk Hydro CEO, she faced a predictable day full of meetings and media interviews. The last thing she expected was a wake up call at 4 a.m. Exhausted, she answered the phone and heard what she assumed was a practical joke on the other end.

“That’s normally not when you get a phone call,” says Aasheim, who was quickly informed that day of the attack. She said her colleague on the other end of the line told her: “We are under a severe cyber attack, you have to come to work. This is not a drill.”

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The attack against Norsk Hydro (which produces enough energy in Norway for 900,000 homes per year) affected the company’s global network of over 3,000 servers and thousands more PCs, locking everyone out and encrypting key areas of the company’s IT network.

Without the decryption key, (which the hackers may or may not provide after a ransomware payment) that data is virtually inaccessible. But even regaining access left Norsk Hydro with a compromised system, one receptive to another attack. The company decided it would not pay the ransom, instead opting to reach out to cybersecurity experts. “There was never the option to pay any ransom,” says Aasheim, who suspected the attackers would only come back for more.

Meanwhile the attack’s virus crippled the company’s network and stalled production in all of its manufacturing facilities. Norsk Hydro made the decision to shut down access to the network, and switch over to manual operation of its most critical systems, warning employees to stay off their devices. Next came shutting down the company’s own internal network to prevent propagation of the virus.

While the benefit of a downed network means easier identification of a malicious virus (as suspicious activity is more prominent), the ramifications were costly. How do you run a manufacturing company without computers, even for more than a single day? They had to figure out how to handle it for weeks.

“It was a very special situation for many weeks before we sort of had our hands around it…and could start to identify what was really compromised,” says Aasheim. Printed order forms, sticky notes on doors and black computer screens, hours of manual labor and extensive bookkeeping helped keep the most essential orders fulfilled. Norsk Hydro relied on pen and paper to track its manufacturing and finances for about three weeks until computer access could be restored, only partially, and for mission-critical work.

“We didn’t have any orders, we didn’t have anything in the computers,” says Aasheim. Manufacturing plants had to operate without computer assistance, a difficult task when making precision aluminum components and dealing with smelters that reach 960 degrees celsius.

“That’s quite a scary situation if you don’t have, let’s say, data to guide you how to operate,” says Aasheim. By asking former Hydro employees and retirees familiar with the paper-based method of manufacturing to pitch in, the production facilities were able to continue to fulfill simpler orders from clients using a combination of both expertise and the few physically printed order forms and procedures for certain parts.

In order to keep up with customer orders, some worked double shifts to reduce the turmoil for clients’ own production schedules. “We did our utmost to keep the customer out of a difficult situation,” says Aasheim. The incident cost Norsk Hydro an estimated $70 million in losses according to its earnings report later that year.

“We do some sophisticated production that can’t be done without top-notch automation, but we have, for example, emergency orders that are easier products that we know can be produced manually,” Norsk Hydro CIO Jo De Vleigher, who helped lead the recovery effort over the months following the attack. Manual production is by no means an optimal solution, but it is better than a full shutdown of the production facilities. “We can keep the machinery going, we can keep the ovens warm” says De Vliegher.

To combat the attackers, De Vliegher, along with the help of agencies including Microsoft’s cybersecurity response team and the Norwegian Norwegian National Cyber Security Centre, set up a trio of teams working to investigate the virus corruption, day to day business operations, and rebuilding the network in parallel to the current one. Unfortunately that meant inspecting the accounts of over 30,000 employees and even more service accounts for instances of malicious activity.

“They all need to be quarantined, cleaned, monitored until the existing systems have, again, a platform to start talking with each other,” says De Vliegher. Programs like the one that crippled Norsk Hydro don’t leave much of a trail, and live in a server’s memory, making it difficult to get rid of.

Essential systems, like manufacturing-specific software, had to be rebuilt over the course of about three weeks. Other systems, including the company’s user directory and cloud services (which were luckily untouched), took as long as three months to bring back online.

Read more: Poppy Gustafsson, CEO of Darktrace, on Fighting Hackers During the Cybercrime Wave

The incident was a paradigm shift for Norsk Hydro’s view on cybersecurity, and a chance to make some important changes to the way their cybersecurity operations are run. “I think that, first of all, cybersecurity and cyber risk has to be on the top of the strategic agenda of any company,” says Aasheim. “It only gets more and more advanced, and the attacks are out there as we speak and only get more and more complicated. There’s a whole business value chain out there in terms of how to attack a company.”

The U.S. Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which assists companies like Colonial Pipeline in similar ransomware incidents, says the victims of cyberattacks should not pay ransoms, as they can incite further attacks.

“Paying ransom offers no assurance that a victim organization will regain access to their data or have their stolen data returned,” says CISA official Eric Goldstein. “Also, ransomware is a criminal economy that is fueled by the payment of ransoms. And so as long as victims are paying ransom, we can expect these criminal groups to be further incentivized to conduct ongoing attacks.”

“If ransomware extrusion impacts the data stored on the business network, the U.S. government is able to offer incident response assistance and other help to victims of ransomware,” says Goldstein. “But by taking some of these fundamental best practices, the organization can significantly reduce the type of expense required to rebuild their network after it does occur.”

“I think our decision was confirmed later on because once your system is encrypted, a lot of damage has already happened along the way,” says Halvor Molland, Norsk Hydro SVP and one member of the response team. “So even if you get the encryption key [from the attackers], there’s no guarantee it will work, and you still have to fix the problems that your system has been compromised.”

Cybersecurity firm Dragos CEO Rob Lee praised Norsk Hydro’s handling of the situation. “It was just extraordinarily transparent,” says Lee. “If you’re impacting the public or the supply chain, it helps quell a lot of concerns and it’s just really a good practice.”

With thousands of computers and employees, it only takes one suspicious email opened to allow bad actors into your network. At that point, it’s less about rooting them out, but stopping them from infecting a company’s network any further. Sandboxing attachments in emails (essentially quarantining them to see if they’re malicious in nature), using AI to scan the network for unfamiliar activity, and teaching employees how to respond to suspicious activity have made Norsk Hydro a company more aware that an attack can occur at any moment.

“We’re starting to see kind of a trend where a couple of these [ransomware groups] appear to be intentionally targeting the industrial side of these infrastructure companies,” says Lee. “I think they appreciate and understand that if you lock up the operation systems, those companies are more ready to pay out, more quick to pay out, and less likely to try to negotiate it down because the cost of being down in terms of reliability, safety, business value, et cetera, is so significant.”

Despite the consequences — tens of millions of dollars in lost business — the company’s openness and frank nature when it came to discussing the ransomware attack was enough to protect its stock prices from any significant shock, and prevent further attacks on different companies using the same ransomware virus, as Norsk Hydro cooperated with cybersecurity officials in Norway.

“Actually on that day, our share price over-performed the market, which is, in theory, hard to imagine when you tell that you have been victim of Norway’s largest cyber attack,” says Halvor Molland, Norsk Hydro SVP and member of the team responsible for rebuilding the company’s network.

Can you ever be sure you’ve thoroughly removed the malware from your network, from your entire company? Can you guarantee the attackers won’t come back? “No, you can’t,” says De Vleigher.

Ransomware is a lucrative business, which means the attacks, hundreds of thousands per day, won’t stop anytime soon. With the risk to the actual hacker being so minimal (no one was arrested for the Norsk Hydro attack) while the payouts are only getting larger, it’s a constant effort to stay one step ahead. Norsk Hydro and Colonial Pipeline aren’t alone either. Right now, critical infrastructure networks are under attack on a regular basis. In 2020, the IC3 received 2,474 complaints identified as ransomware, which amounted to over $29 million in losses, and doesn’t account for losses in time, files, or equipment.

“If there’s one thing we’ve learned, it’s that if a competent hacker really wants to get into a company, they will succeed no matter what,” says De Vleigher. “It’s not like a normal virus, it’s not because we’ve been attacked and now we’re immune. We’ve put a lot of effort in crisis handling and recovery as much as in prevention, because we’re very aware it’s asymmetric warfare. We need to be perfect all the time. They just need to be lucky once, and sooner or later they might be lucky again.”

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Write to Patrick Lucas Austin at [email protected]

a case study norsk

Hackers hit Norsk Hydro with ransomware. The company responded with transparency

The bedside phone rang at 4 a.m. in Oslo, Norway. The pre-dawn call filled Torstein Gimnes Are with a drowsy sense of dread. That only deepened when he heard the first words from the other end.

“We may be under attack,” said his IT colleague at Norsk Hydro , one of the world’s largest aluminum companies. Production lines had stopped at some of its 170 plants. Other facilities were switching from computer to manual operations.

It would get worse.

A Norsk Hydro employee in a hard hat looks out from behind a glass door inside a factory.

Trond Ingelsrudøya peers from a control room at a Norsk Hydro extrusion plant. Hydro temporarily halted production at several plants in its extruded solutions divisions in Europe and the U.S. after the attack.

The breach last March would ultimately affect all 35,000 Norsk Hydro employees across 40 countries, locking the files on thousands of servers and PCs. The financial impact would eventually approach $71 million.

All of that damage had been set in motion three months earlier when one employee unknowingly opened an infected email from a trusted customer. That allowed hackers to invade the IT infrastructure and covertly plant their virus.

After hanging up, Gimnes Are, corporate information security officer at Norsk Hydro, immediately phoned the company’s emergency preparedness chief to organize an urgent meeting later that morning.

“This was a company crisis,” recalls Gimnes Are. “IT had already shut down the network and servers to avoid any further spreading. But we didn’t fully know what this was.”

Soon, they all knew its name: LockerGoga, a form of ransomware. It encrypted the files on desktops, laptops and servers throughout the company. It also posted a ransom note on the screens of the corrupted computers.

“Greetings!” the note began. “Your files are encrypted with the strongest military algorithms. … We exclusively have decryption software for your situation … .”

The note demanded the company pay a ransom in bitcoins and added, “The final price depends on how fast you contact us.”

At the emergency meeting, Norsk Hydro executives made three swift decisions: They would pay no ransom, they would summon Microsoft’s cybersecurity team to help restore operations and they would be fully open about the breach.

That third choice gained accolades from security experts around the world because it bucked the usually secretive responses many organizations employ after getting hacked.

Senior staff hosted daily webcasts and answered audience questions. Executives held daily press conferences at their Oslo headquarters, posted updates to Facebook, welcomed journalists into their operations control rooms – and even launched a new company website during the attack’s first week.

A screen shot of the ransom note received by Norsk Hydro.

The ransom note to Norsk Hydro.

Transparency is core to the Norsk Hydro culture, says Halvor Molland, senior vice president of media relations. By issuing frequent, candid communications about the events, the company also sought to expose the shadowy tactics of cyber criminals and maybe curb similar threats.

“We wanted to help other industries learn from our experience,” Molland says. “This way, they can be better prepared for situations like this and not have to go through what we did.”

In the first hours of the breach, Norsk Hydro requested assistance from Microsoft’s Detection and Response Team (DART), which goes onsite to support companies under attack and provides remote, proactive investigations.

The case was designated “maximum severity,” says Jim Moeller, a DART member and a specialist in cyberattack response. He was dispatched to a small city near Budapest, Hungary, home to one of Norsk Hydro’s largest aluminum manufacturing plants. Production there was offline.

Three Norsk Hydro executives stand at a podium during a press conference during the cyber attack.

One of many Norsk Hydro press conferences held during the cyber attack. From left: Executive Vice President of Communication and Public Affairs Inger Sethov, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Eivind Kallevik and Executive Vice President of Extruded Solutions Egil Hogna.

Moeller spent three weeks in Hungary, building a team from regional engineers and architects. The team’s initial task was to help the company recover and reconstitute its business operations and services, Moeller says. Other DART members flew to Oslo.

“With our guidance, Norsk Hydro was able to mitigate the mechanism by which the attacker was able to launch the attack,” Moeller says.

They got to know LockerGoga, which also attacked Altran Technologies, an engineering consultancy company in France, and two U.S. industrial firms – Hexion, based in Ohio, and Momentive, based in New York.

In Oslo, a team of internal and external forensic investigators determined that in December 2018, the hackers had weaponized one email attachment sent by a trusted customer employee to an employee at Norsk Hydro – part of a legitimate conversation, Gimnes Are says.

“They equipped it with a payload to install a Trojan software on the PC of the Hydro employee,” Gimnes Are says. “This Trojan software was discovered by our antivirus a few days later. But that was already too late. By then, the attacker had built an initial foothold in our system.”

At first, the ransomware compromised standard users within the Norsk Hydro computer network. Then it captured administrative credentials, allowing the hackers to command the entire IT infrastructure, Moeller says.

“Once the attacker controlled the environment, they chose to deploy ransomware via a manual push from (Norsk Hydro’s) own domain controllers,” Moeller says.

“This was another example of recent attack behavior where the attack group uses Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) entry strategies to deploy more commodity-level malware in the hopes of faster monetization with lower attack investment,” Moeller adds.

But Norsk Hydro was not about to pay a single bitcoin to the hackers or negotiate to recover the locked files. Instead, they opted to restore their data through trusted back-up servers.

“What would you get from paying a ransom in such an attack?” Gimnes Are asks. “You will potentially get back your encrypted data – if the attacker gives you the key. Paying the ransom would not help you to rebuild the company infrastructure, all the servers, all the PCs, all the networks.

“Paying the ransom will not help you out of the situation. You will need to rebuild your infrastructure to be safe and be sure that the attacker is not still part of it,” he adds.

At Microsoft, Eric Doerr serves as general manager of the Microsoft Security Response Center , which protects customers from being harmed by security vulnerabilities in Microsoft’s products and services. The center also rapidly repulses attacks against the Microsoft Cloud. Doerr strongly promotes transparency among organizations that suffer cyberattacks.

“Norsk Hydro set the example for the industry in this incident,” Doerr says.

“Choosing not to pay the ransom and digging in with DART to evict the attacker is great. Sharing those learnings with the world is priceless. When companies do this, it makes us all better and makes the attackers work harder,” he adds.

Of course, some companies facing a ransomware attack may be highly tempted to pay bad actors to regain their hijacked data. But paying hackers doesn’t guarantee that a company will ever recover the goods, says Ann Johnson, Microsoft’s corporate vice president of cybersecurity solutions.

There’s a smarter way – following the plan executed by Norsk Hydro, says Johnson, whose team oversees DART.

“Your data is a strategic asset for you, and for cybercriminals. That’s why they want it. It is also why your data must be protected, and it should be backed up,” Johnson says.

At the same time, companies must invest in cybersecurity, she adds.

At Norsk Hydro, for example, the IT department works to increase security awareness among its employees, says Molland, the media relations SVP. That includes sending workers test emails to help train them to look for common phishing tactics like fake login pages and malicious attachments.

If companies fail to commit to cybersecurity, Johnson warns, bad actors will become repeat customers.

“You’ve likely seen signs that read, ‘Don’t feed the birds,’ when dining at an outdoor café. That’s because the birds will keep returning to the same places where they know it’s easy to be fed. It’s the same concept for cybercriminals,” Johnson says. “They know if you have weak cyber-defenses, and they will want to exploit those weaknesses over-and-over.

“The best defense is to ensure you have the right combination of people, processes and technology. We recommend you implement multifactor authentication, have a mature update process, and back up your data,” she adds.

Two Norsk Hydro workers work their way through the cyberattack using paper data.

At a Norsk Hydro extrusion plant in Norway, sales project manager Rune Johansen and extrusion anodizing fabrication manager Sten Stolpe dig through paper documentation to manually complete customer orders during the cyberattack.

In Hungary and Norway last March, DART members helped Norsk Hydro develop safe processes to restore their servers with an improved security posture. They also educated the company about the current threat landscape and known attacker behaviors to help reduce the risk of future attacks, Moeller says.

Inside Norsk Hydro, the internal response focused on multiple fronts. They launched old-school methods to resume full production and repair business operations. And they worked to protect the safety of employees and the environment.

“We operate heavy machinery. If the power is lost in an uncontrolled manner, it could risk severe safety incidents for people,” says Molland, the media relations SVP.

“Safety is always first priority with us. Secondly, it’s the concern for the environment and ensuring we don’t have any uncontrolled emissions (due to sudden machine stoppages) out to the air, land or water.”

Executives handwrote signs warning of the cyberattack, photographed them with their smart phones and texted the images to managers at Norsk Hydro plants and offices around the world. At those facilities, the staff used local printing shops to create paper signs, posting them on entryways, stairwells and elevators for employees to read as they arrived for the workday.

“Please do not connect any devices to the Hydro network. Do not turn on any devices connected to the Hydro network. Please disconnect devices from the Hydro network,” read some written alerts that also carried a simple signature: “Security.”

Two Norsk Hydro workers use pen and paper to restore production amid the cyberattack.

Two workers at a Norsk Hydro plant in Portland, Oregon manually operate machines to produce specific customer orders during the initial phase of the cyberattack.

The entire workforce did their jobs with pen and paper during the attack’s first days. Some plants switched to manual procedures to meet manufacturing orders. Retired employees – familiar with the old paper system – volunteered to return to their plants to keep production rolling.

“The way we pulled together to make the company come through the situation in one piece and get back into production has been an extreme team-building session,” Molland says.

“We have an organized emergency preparedness methodology within the company – in the corporate level, in the business area and at the plant level,” he adds. “That worked to our benefit. When this hit us, we were able to handle the situation in a constructive, organized manner.”

In other words, prevention is important but locking out all cyberattackers should not be a company’s sole security focus, says Jo De Vliegher, Norsk Hydro’s chief information officer.

“If hackers want to get in, they will get in,” De Vliegher says. “We now have an improved incident response to make sure that – should something similar happen – we are much better equipped to limit the damage in time and geography.”

Norsk Hydro reported the incident to Norway’s National Criminal Investigation Service (Kripos). The case remains under investigation, Molland says.

Video and photos courtesy of Norsk Hydro. 

case-studie

Case-studie er en studie av én enhet , på norsk også omtalt som kasusstudie eller eksempelstudie.

keis stˈudie

casestudie, case study (engelsk), kasusstudie, tilfellestudie, eksempelstudie.

Det engelske «case» kommer av latin kasus , som betyr tilfelle. Om man for eksempel ønsker kunnskap om land i verden, så kan en studie av Norge være en case-studie. I utgangspunktet omfatter en case-studie kun ett enkelt tilfelle, eller en enhet. Såkalte komparative case-studier inkluderer to eller noen få enheter, som blir systematisk sammenliknet. De enkelte enhetene blir da studert hver for seg, men på samme måte, slik at de kan sammenliknes. Slik kan for eksempel Norge sammenliknes med Sverige, i en komparativ case-studie av de to landene.

Andre enheter som studeres i en case-studie kan være individer, familier, organisasjoner, institusjoner, lokalsamfunn, hendelser eller prosesser.

Case-studier baseres gjerne på kvalitative tilnærminger eller på kombinasjoner av kvalitative og kvantitative data ( mixed methods ).

Formålet med en case-studie kan være å utvikle inngående kunnskap om og helhetlig forståelse av den enheten som studeres. Denne enheten ansees da å være interessant i seg selv, ikke først og fremst som del av et større univers. Forskeren kan gå i dybden av en enhet og kan dermed komme frem til detaljerte og inngående beskrivelser av et fenomen.

Et annet formål kan være å utvikle begreper , hypoteser eller teorier . Slike studier kan danne grunnlag for teoretisk generalisering . Den enheten som studeres er da strategisk utvalgt som typisk for et mer omfattende univers , og resultatene av studien forstås i en større kontekst og i sammenheng med andre studier av liknende enheter. Slik kan man for eksempel forsøke å si noe om dynamikken i familier generelt ved å studere én enkelt familie, eller man kan forsøke å si noe om årsaker til borgerkrig ved å studere én borgerkrig i detalj.

Begrensninger

Det kan være utfordrende å utlede generelle betraktninger om fenomener og forhold på bakgrunn av en studie av bare én enhet. Fakta om ett medlem av en gruppe er ikke nødvendigvis representativt for hele gruppen.

Det kan også være vanskelig å identifisere en årsakssammenheng kun ved hjelp av en case-studie, siden det ofte kan være mange fenomener som kan tenkes å påvirke et gitt utfall. For eksempel kan en borgerkrig gjerne inntreffe i fattige land med stor økonomisk ulikhet og en etnisk heterogen befolkning. Ved å studere bare én borgerkrig er det ikke lett å identifisere hvilken av disse faktorene som var den faktiske eller viktigste årsaken til konflikten.

Case-studier kan imidlertid danne grunnlag for nye oppdagelser og utvikling av hypoteser, som så kan undersøkes nærmere og testes ved hjelp av kvantitative studier og statistiske analyser.

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a case study norsk

a case study norsk

  • Threat intelligence

Norsk Hydro responds to ransomware attack with transparency

  • By Microsoft Security Team
  • Incident response

Last March, aluminum supplier Norsk Hydro was attacked by LockerGoga, a form of ransomware. The attack began with an infected email and locked the files on thousands of servers and PCs. All 35,000 Norsk Hydro employees across 40 countries were affected. In the throes of this crisis, executives made three swift decisions:

  • Pay no ransom.
  • Summon Microsoft’s cybersecurity team to help restore operations.
  • Communicate openly about the breach.

Read Hackers hit Norsk Hydro with ransomware to learn why this approach helped the company recover and get back to business as usual.

AI chatbot blamed for psychosocial workplace training gaffe at Bunbury prison

a case study norsk

By Bridget McArthur

ABC South West WA

Topic: Artificial Intelligence

Over-the-shoulder of a man's head you can see a desktop computer screen with Copilot chatbot home page

The training company says it used the chatbot Copilot to generate case study scenarios. ( ABC South West: Bridget McArthur )

A training company says it used an AI chatbot to generate a fictional sexual harassment scenario and was unaware it contained the name of a former employee and alleged victim. 

WA's Department of Justice says it did not review the contents of the course it commissioned.

What's next?

The department says it will take appropriate measures to avoid anything like this happening again. 

The psychosocial safety training company that used the full name of an alleged sexual harassment victim in a course at her former workplace says artificial intelligence (AI) is to blame.

Psychosocial Leadership trainer Charlotte Ingham said she used Microsoft's Copilot chatbot to generate examples of psychosocial hazards employees might face at Bunbury prison, where she was delivering the course.

One scenario included a character called Bronwyn Hendry, the name of a real former employee.

"I walked in there thinking I had a fictional scenario," Ms Ingham said. 

"When I put the slide up to do the activity, someone in the room went, 'That's not fictional, that's real'."

A sign at Bunbury Regional Prison.

Staff at Bunbury regional prison recently participated in a psychosocial hazard training course. ( ABC South West: Georgia Hargreaves )

Ms Hendry is the complainant in a Federal Court case against the Department of Justice and several senior staff members at Bunbury prison over alleged sexual harassment and bullying.

"I had no idea [the chatbot] would use real people's names," Ms Ingham said. 

"I mean, should I have known?"

Ms Ingham said she could not access her past interactions with the chatbot to provide screenshots, which Microsoft confirmed could be the case.

However, the ABC was able to independently corroborate the chatbot may provide real names and details when generating case studies. 

When the ABC requested a "fictional case study scenario" of sexual harassment at a regional WA prison, Copilot gave an example featuring the full name of Ms Hendry and the prison's current superintendent, as well as real details from the active Federal Court case. 

Screenshot of Copilot chat

Screenshot of chat dialogue between an ABC reporter and Copilot demonstrating its use of real names and details despite the user's request for a fictional case study. ( Supplied: Copilot )

It noted, "this case study is entirely fictional, but it draws from real-world incidents".

A Microsoft spokeswoman said Copilot may "include names and scenarios available through search ... if prompted to create a case study based on a specific situation".

Alleged victim calls training 'contradictory' 

Ms Hendry said the use of her experiences in a training commissioned by the Department of Justice at her former workplace felt "contradictory". 

"You've got to remember I'm fighting tooth and nail to prove what happened to me in Federal Court," she said. 

"It's very triggering."

Headshot of Bronwyn Hendry.

Ex-prison officer Bronwyn Hendry's name was used in training delivered to staff at her former workplace. ( Supplied: Bronwyn Hendry )

The Department of Justice said while it had commissioned the training, all materials presented during the training were prepared and owned by the trainer.

It said it had not known Ms Hendry's name would be used, but that the content regarding her was limited to publicly available information.

"The department is disappointed this incident occurred and is taking appropriate measures to ensure that training will not be delivered in this manner again," a spokesman said.

Ms Hendry said that was not good enough.

"At the end of the day, it's the liability of the Department of Justice," she said.

"They procured her. They paid her for her consultancy. They should have done those checks and balances."

The front gate of a mixed security prison.

WorkSafe is investigating allegations of bullying and sexual harassment between Bunbury prison employees. ( ABC News: Amelia Searson )

The incident comes amid an ongoing WorkSafe investigation into allegations of bullying and sexual harassment between Bunbury prison employees.

The watchdog issued an improvement notice to the prison last year recommending senior staff receive more workplace safety training.

AI expert warns companies to tread carefully

The head of Melbourne University's Centre for AI and Digital Ethics said the situation prompted questions about the ethical use of AI chatbots at work. 

Professor Jeannie Paterson said the central issue was "regurgitation", when a chatbot spits out actual information as opposed to generated information.

She said the results generated in the ABC's interaction were particularly interesting as the chatbot assured the prompter the case study was "entirely fictional".

A brunette woman in an orange jacket and black glasses sits holding a microphone

Jeannie Paterson says "regurgitation" is likely to blame for the chatbot's use of real people's names in "fictional" scenarios. ( Supplied: Jeannie Paterson )

"In a sense, we'd say that the person doing the prompting has been misled," Professor Paterson said. 

"Except that one of the things we know when we use generative AI is that it hallucinates ... it can't be relied on."

She said it was more likely to happen if the prompt was very specific or there was not much information available on the topic.

"That's why I would say firms shouldn't say, 'Don't use it'. Firms should say, 'Here's our policy on using it'," she said. 

"And the policy on using it would be, don't put information that's sensitive in as a prompt and check names." 

a case study norsk

On March 19, 2019, Hydro was hit by an extensive cyber-attack. The attack affected our entire global organization, with the business area Extruded Solutions having suffered the most significant operational challenges and financial losses. Hydro’s other business areas – Bauxite & Alumina, Primary Metal, Rolled Products and Energy – was able to produce close to normal despite the attack, although based on work-intensive workarounds and manual procedures.

Hydro have now resumed normal operations. During and after the attack, Hydro worked 24/7 with all available internal resources and in close cooperation with external expertise to resolve the situation​. All PCs and servers across the company was reviewed, cleaned for any malware and safely restored, according to strict guidelines to ensure security and safety. Encrypted PCs and servers were rebuilt based on back-ups. We have reorganized our security team to better detect and respond to cyber incidents.

Hydro is in dialog with relevant Norwegian and international authorities, including Norway’s National Investigation Service (Kripos) and the Norwegian National Security Authority (NSM). Hydro has estimated the total cost to be around 800 MNOK. The company has a robust cyber insurance in place with recognized insurers.

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Updated: May 15, 2024

News about the cyber attack

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Case Study: Norway

  • First Online: 14 September 2019

Cite this chapter

a case study norsk

  • Waqas Nawaz 4 &
  • Muammer Koç 4  

Part of the book series: Management and Industrial Engineering ((MINEN))

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The innovation system and IUGP settings of Norway are of special interest because the country has transformed its oil and gas-based growth to knowledge-based development. Norwegian example is most suitable for the small-sized wealthy nations with abundant hydrocarbon resources which are committed to transform their natural capital to knowledge capital. This chapter provides a detailed account on the past and present of innovation system and IUGP initiatives that helped Norway in developing its knowledge ecosystem. We explore the cultural and institutional settings in Norway to find the needs and motivations to transform the Norwegian hydrocarbon economy to knowledge-based economy. The role of the state government has been remarkable in establishing the sector-based public research institutes and a collaborative framework between the research institutes, higher education institutes, and industry. In addition, the enactment of concession laws and the law on the right to inventions made by employees motivated the knowledge-based workforce to innovate and commercialize. At the same time, the establishment of science parks and business parks helped the young entrepreneurs and SMEs to increase their competence level and to compete at the national and international levels. Also, the decentralized public procurement helped in stimulating the domestic market for innovation. Lastly, the public-private partnership programs created further opportunities for technology transfer and commercialization.

R. Pradhananga co-authored this chapter.

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Nawaz, W., Koç, M. (2020). Case Study: Norway . In: Industry, University and Government Partnerships for the Sustainable Development of Knowledge-Based Society. Management and Industrial Engineering. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26799-5_3

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Case study: norway’s strategic process to capitalise on the potential of new technology, shaping a just digital transformation.

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Norsk Hydro: Bloc 34

In 2002, the Norwegian energy giant Norsk Hydro faced a looming investor relations crisis: Bloc 34, the potential site for a big oil find in Angola, was found to be dry. Hydro had made a serious investment in Bloc 34, and now needed to recover in the eyes of the investment community. Somehow, top management would have to convincingly explain the company’s failure to discover oil to the financial markets. If they could not explain it, and maintain the financial community’s confidence, Hydro’s stock could plummet. Norsk Hydro needed to respond competently and fast, and senior management understood that this problem was too critical to leave to conventional approaches. Hydro, however, was rich in heritage, unwieldy, and traditional, with a strong engineering culture and a decidedly Nordic consensus-driven approach to decisions. Creating the sort of team that could deliver competently and fast would require an entirely new way of doing business. This case describes the team that Hydro created and the way in which they worked.

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3 Ways Norsk Hydro Kept its Reputation During LockerGoga Cyberattack

3 Ways Norsk Hydro Kept its Reputation During LockerGoga Cyberattack

When a cyberattack on an industrial facility succeeds, the highest level of concern is for safety. Making sure that process or manufacturing systems don’t endanger lives, or the environment, is paramount. The next level of concern is business continuity, making sure that production is maintained or restarted so that customers can be served, and financial losses minimized.

In parallel to these operational challenges, executives need to work hard to protect the organization’s reputation. Nozomi Networks sales managers and system engineers cite “we don’t want to be in the news” as one of the key drivers of investment in industrial cyber security systems.

While data breaches that have been poorly handled by companies capture the headlines, it is refreshing to note a recent industrial cyberattack response that has been applauded by communication experts. The event in question is the LockerGoga ransomware attack on Norsk Hydro.

I asked Mihaela Grad, a vice president at corporate reputation management firm Standing Partnership, to identify what stood out about Norsk Hydro’s response, and what lessons can be learned from it. If you’re concerned about the potential damage a cyberattack could have on your organization’s standing, don’t miss her three key steps to protecting your reputation.

Three Key Steps to Protecting Your Reputation During a Cyberattack

As indicated above, cyberattacks disrupt operations, cause financial loss and can also ruin corporate reputations. They bring about heightened scrutiny of the executive team’s reactions and decision-making under pressure, threatening to shatter shareholder and customer trust in a matter of hours.

  • Did the company leadership do everything to minimize IT and OT vulnerabilities?
  • What steps did they take to contain the damage?
  • How are they handling the disruption to business and their customers’ businesses?

The answers to these questions can outlast the immediate impact of a cyberattack. So, what should companies do to prepare and how should they respond if they are hit by a one?

Crisis preparedness includes several foundational elements: a crisis response plan, a cross-functional response team and draft materials for the scenarios most likely to happen. Considering the growing sophistication of malware targeting industrial companies, cyberattacks should be one of the top 5 most-likely-to-happen scenarios.

Norsk Hydro’s response provided a textbook example of how to act well after the recent LockerGaga ransomware attack. Crisis response is immediate in nature and, when handled well, addresses not only the here and now, but also focuses on restoring long-term trust and minimizing reputational damage.

Here are three key steps to incorporate in your crisis response strategy:

Step 1: Be Transparent

Transparency fosters trust. When your stakeholders learn about all your efforts to prevent an attack and restore operations in the aftermath of an incident, they are more likely to give you the benefit of the doubt and continue doing business with you.

Norsk Hydro went above-and-beyond in its efforts to be transparent. Their executive team met with media and industry analysts every day for approximately a week after the attack to provide updates on their efforts to restore operations, and answer questions.

They posted daily updates on their website and social channels, and offered direct access to their media and investor relations representatives. No questions were off-limits, from the complexity of restoring operations to financial impact, and their collaboration with law enforcement officials.

Another way Norsk Hydro was transparent in its response was the release of videos that showed how the company was responding to the cyberattack.

Step 2:   Engage with Stakeholders Through Normal Channels

Even during a crisis, it’s important to remember that your stakeholders are accustomed to hearing from your company in different ways. It is not enough to post information on your website. Your social channels need to be updated as well.

Press conferences or on-demand webcasts are a great way of informing stakeholders in various time zones. Legislative representatives, local officials and trade associations might expect direct outreach by phone.

Step 3: Communicate Frequently

A single update is not enough. As daunting as this sounds, it is critical to provide multiple timely updates on the impact of the cyberattack and on the steps taken to contain it. This demonstrates agility, integrity and transparency to your external and internal stakeholders.

You may want to consider devoting part of your website homepage to crisis management updates, storing them in chronological order to show progression. Continue to share developments until the consequences of the cyberattack have been fully addressed.

3 Ways Norsk Hydro Protected its Reputation During the LockerGoga Cyberattack

To assess and manage OT risk, and protect your corporate brand, preparedness is key. And, help is available. The experts at Standing Partnership deliver guidance on how to navigate cyber incidents with minimal damage to your reputation.

Paired with advanced technology that rapidly identifies malware and provides time-saving forensic assistance, your organization should be well equipped to weather the storm of a major cyberattack.

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Norway’s leading supplier of steel and metals explores how to improve operational processes RPA and AI

Read the interesting case study of Norsk Stål

RPA and AI case study of Norsk Stål:

Norsk Stål AS is Norway’s leading supplier of steel and metals. The company has an annual turnover of around NOK 2 billion. It employs some 280 employees across 13 locations nationwide and works within several market segments, including offshore, shipbuilding, construction, and engineering.

In this RPA and AI case study, Norsk Stål explores how to improve operational processes through ongoing development. Intelligent digital workers are applied to bring hours back to business, speed up transaction times, and improve the quality and efficiency of inventory management.

Digital Workforce provides its Norwegian client with intelligent digital workers as a cloud service . Our Robot as a Service industrial automation platform allows for building and connecting with automation capabilities in the same solution. The solution built for Norsk Stål combines Blue Prism Robotic Process Automation (RPA) technology with Machine Learning and is delivered from Microsoft Azure.

This case study answers questions like:

  • How can Machine Learning be used to extend the capabilities of RPA?
  • How can AI be used to optimise processes?
  • In what ways can a company strategy be supported by Intelligent Automation?
  • Why is a cloud service model an efficient way to implement robotics?

RPA Case Study in Steel Industry

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Case study Norsk Stål

Norsk Tipping game on cell phone

Norsk Tipping is state-owned, making it the people’s gaming company. With more than two million customers, it serves almost half of Norway’s adult population.

How does society benefit? The Ministry of Culture dispenses Norsk Tipping’s surplus funds to a range of good causes—63% to sport, 18% to culture and 18% to humanitarian organizations. In 2022, the company contributed more than USD 630 million to such pursuits.

To foster responsible gambling, Norsk Tipping tracks games played, betting frequency, losses and more for each user. Then, it gently intervenes when data analytics discover patterns that show increased risk of developing gambling problems. Users logging in can see their responsible gaming status as green, yellow or red, and when necessary are provided with personal feedback and recommendations on how to lower their risk score.

Mining the gaming data presents a real challenge. Weekly, up to a million users in peak timeframes generate many thousands of transactions per second to be processed, stored and analyzed. The processing is so intensive that it’s usually done in batch mode.

Pulling data from the data warehouse in batches and analyzing it for responsible gaming insights takes 24 hours, and batch processing of user lottery subscriptions used to take 8 – 9 hours. Such delays led Norsk Tipping IT architects to explore a more modern, event-driven data architecture. The goal is to process data events in motion so as to accelerate application response and improve the user experience.

“In our legacy architecture, we pull data from a system or a database when a request comes in from the internet,” explains Jan Harald Fonås, Middleware Systems Engineer at Norsk Tipping. “We are testing an event-based architecture where that data is already present, because when it was generated, it was sent through an event streaming engine and is waiting to be consumed.”

“In some cases, an event-based architecture would be faster and wouldn’t put as much load on the infrastructure,” adds Tormod Kvalheim, Head of Applications. “It could also drive innovation, providing data to developers for creating new products and services.”

Still, in order to experiment with event-driven architecture, the IT team first had to choose an event streaming platform that would meet Norsk Tipping’s needs.

5,000 transactions

In a busy period, Norsk Tipping must process more than 5,000 gaming transactions per second

Processing lottery subscriptions under Event Streams is 6X faster than before

The IT architects had several requirements for a streaming platform. Apache Kafka is the leading open-source solution, and as part of Norsk Tipping’s infrastructure modernization program, Kafka needed to run in Kubernetes containers. The architects also sought a vendor that would provide strong ongoing support, rather than just a transactional relationship.

After trying different streaming solutions, they chose  IBM® Event Streams , an enterprise-class event streaming and automation platform built on Apache Kafka. Event Streams incorporates open-source Strimzi technology for deploying Kafka in a resilient and manageable way, and it provides a range of additional capabilities to extend the core functionality. Like all products in the  IBM Cloud Pak® for Integration , Event Streams is designed to run on  Red Hat® OpenShift®  (link resides outside of ibm.com) and other Kubernetes container platforms.

“When we saw that IBM was working with OpenShift and Strimzi, we realized that this is what we wanted,” explains Andrea Knagenhjelm, Middleware Systems Engineer at Norsk Tipping. “Being operator based, Event Streams resources are very easy to manage.”

“Event Streams is really reliable and IBM has always been there to support us,” says Fonås. “If IBM Norway isn’t able to help, someone in the IBM world always steps in.”

Although it’s still early, Norsk Tipping has started to capitalize on Event Streams. It powers a popular service that lets users subscribe to their favorite lottery games and play each week. The service stores favorite numbers or selects them at random, and every Monday sends users SMS updates on purchases the system made.

The service demonstrates Event Streams’ processing power. Before, batch processing the subscription list took 8 – 9 hours. Now, it takes 1.5 hours, a 6X improvement. This speed makes the service more responsive to users, helping to improve their experience.

In another use case, Event Streams improves the partner experience by quickly calculating sales commissions owed to affiliates when users buy games on their websites. And it powers a new customer application, now in testing, that will boost developers’ efficiency in creating customer-centric games and services.

Norsk Tipping also plans to apply event streaming to responsible gaming updates by enabling greater personalization. Instead of taking 24 hours for batch-mode processing of user profiles, Event Streams could do it much faster—and perhaps help trigger interventions in near real-time when user behavior approaches red-zone thresholds.

“Event Streams should help our systems respond faster and personalization should be better,” says Fonås. “Once multiple customer data events converge in a system, it could build a response, providing a unique user experience for that specific customer.”

The subscription service’s speed and improved user experience shows the potential of Event Streams. It’s one of many use cases on the drawing board that support Norsk Tipping’s mission of contributing to Norwegian society.

“The subscription service is quite important to our customers because they can just subscribe and not have to think about buying lottery games again and again,” says Kvalheim. “It’s popular because the system does it for them.”

Indeed, many customers use the service weekly, with turnover increasing each week. And, of course, the profits finance the worthwhile projects that set Norsk Tipping apart.

“Sometimes in our company, jokingly, we measure things by kids’ football fields,” quips Kvalheim. “When we succeed, it’s more money for culture, humanitarian organizations and football fields for kids. That’s the bright side of gambling.”

Norsk Tipping logo

Founded in 1946 and headquartered in Hamar, Norway,  Norsk Tipping  (link resides outside of ibm.com) is a state-owned gambling company that returns all profits to society. Actively working to reduce gambling addiction, Norsk Tipping employs around 400 people and in 2022 contributed more than USD 630 million to sports, culture and humanitarian organizations.

To learn more about the IBM solutions featured in this story, please contact your IBM representative or IBM Business Partner.

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2023. IBM Corporation, New Orchard Road, Armonk, NY 10504

Produced in the United States, February 2023.

IBM, the IBM logo, and IBM Cloud Pak are trademarks of International Business Machines Corporation, registered in many jurisdictions worldwide. Other product and service names might be trademarks of IBM or other companies. A current list of IBM trademarks is available on ibm.com/trademark .

Red Hat®, JBoss®, OpenShift®, Fedora®, Hibernate®, Ansible®, CloudForms®, RHCA®, RHCE®, RHCSA®, Ceph®, and Gluster® are trademarks or registered trademarks of Red Hat, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and other countries.

This document is current as of the initial date of publication and may be changed by IBM at any time. Not all offerings are available in every country in which IBM operates.

All client examples cited or described are presented as illustrations of the manner in which some clients have used IBM products and the results they may have achieved. Actual environmental costs and performance characteristics will vary depending on individual client configurations and conditions. Generally expected results cannot be provided as each client's results will depend entirely on the client's systems and services ordered. THE INFORMATION IN THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED "AS IS" WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING WITHOUT ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND ANY WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF NON-INFRINGEMENT. IBM products are warranted according to the terms and conditions of the agreements under which they are provided.

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NORSK: The path to standardised cost reporting and improved project controlling

NORSK develops and manages ESG-compliant real estate that leaves a lasting impression. The financial and ESG data converge in Alasco.

a case study norsk

Transparent cost monitoring of ESG-compliant real estate projects

The challenge

NORSK has been operating as a real estate investor and project developer with a focus on ESG-compliant real estate projects since 2018. Successful project management is based on precise project budgeting and a comprehensive cost overview. The team strived for processes driven by automation and efficiency to ensure a faster and more secure cost monitoring. Transparent reporting throughout the realisation of a project was essential to provide reliable and consistent information to all stakeholders. 

The solution

NORSK implemented Alasco as the main software solution for cost management. It covers all issues related to cost controlling and monitoring - from precise budget planning to the detailed presentation of orders, including follow-up management. All necessary data is available in Alasco and simultaneously automatically processed. Alasco thus serves as a single source of information for cost controlling.

The outcome

Alasco offers a comprehensive overview of financial and ESG data over the course of a project. 

The automation of processes as well as the centralization of information support the increased accuracy and reliability of the data. All in all, this leads to greater transparency in analysis and reporting. Information for reporting to stakeholders can now be retrieved faster and more reliably in one place thanks to Alasco. Alasco thus supports more effective decision-making in project management as well as faster and more reliable reporting.

About the company

NORSK Deutschland AG was founded in April 2018 as a German stock corporation based in Frankfurt am Main. The real estate investor and project developer develops pioneering, ESG-compliant real estate projects.

"With Alasco, our processes have been automated, allowing us to deliver cost information in a more reliable and expedited manner." - Lennart Fuss, Project Lead & ESG Manager, NORSK Germany

To help you select the best Manage-to-Green platform

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‘Worst-Case’ Disaster for Antarctic Ice Looks Less Likely, Study Finds

Global warming is putting the continent’s ice at risk of destruction in many forms. But one especially calamitous scenario might be a less pressing concern, a new study found.

A snowy and icy landscape with white clouds floating above it.

By Raymond Zhong

For almost a decade, climate scientists have been trying to get their heads around a particularly disastrous scenario for how West Antarctica’s gigantic ice sheet might break apart, bringing catastrophe to the world’s coasts.

It goes like this: Once enough of the ice sheet’s floating edges melt away, what remains are immense, sheer cliffs of ice facing the sea. These cliffs will be so tall and steep that they are unstable. Great chunks of ice start breaking away from them, exposing even taller, even more-unstable cliffs. Soon, these start crumbling too, and before long you have runaway collapse.

As all this ice tumbles into the ocean, and assuming that nations’ emissions of heat-trapping gases climb to extremely high levels, Antarctica could contribute more than a foot to worldwide sea-level rise before the end of the century.

This calamitous chain of events is still hypothetical, yet scientists have taken it seriously enough to include it as a “low-likelihood, high-impact” possibility in the United Nations’ latest assessment of future sea-level increase.

Now, though, a group of researchers has put forth evidence that the prospect may be more remote than previously thought. As humans burn fossil fuels and heat the planet, West Antarctica’s ice remains vulnerable to destruction in many forms. But this particular form, in which ice cliffs collapse one after the other, looks less likely, according to the scientists’ computer simulations.

“We’re not saying that we’re safe,” said Mathieu Morlighem, a professor of earth science at Dartmouth College who led the research. “The Antarctic ice sheet is going to disappear; this is going to happen. The question is how fast.”

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An aerial view of Thwaites ice shelf's front shows an already tall area of floating ice.

Thwaites Glacier won’t collapse like dominoes as feared, study finds, but that doesn’t mean the ‘Doomsday Glacier’ is stable

a case study norsk

Professor of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College

Disclosure statement

Mathieu Morlighem receives funding from NASA, the National Science Foundation, the Heising Simons Foundation, and Dartmouth College.

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Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier got its nickname the “ Doomsday Glacier ” for its potential to flood coastlines around the world if it collapsed. It is already contributing about 4% of annual sea-level rise as it loses ice, and one theory suggests the glacier could soon begin to collapse into the ocean like a row of dominoes.

But is that kind of rapid collapse really as likely as feared? A new study of Thwaites Glacier’s susceptibility to what’s known as marine ice cliff instability offers some hope. But the findings don’t mean Thwaites is stable.

Polar scientist Mathieu Morlighem , who led the study, explains the results.

Why is the Thwaites Glacier so important?

Thwaites Glacier drains a huge area of Antarctica’s ice sheet – about 74,000 square miles (192,000 square kilometers), an expanse bigger than Florida. If a snowflake falls within that drainage system, it will eventually end up as part of an iceberg in the ocean off Thwaites.

What we are seeing with Thwaites Glacier right now is a disaster in slow motion.

The bedrock under Thwaites Glacier sits below sea level and slopes downward going inland , so the glacier gets deeper toward the interior of the ice sheet. Once the glacier begins losing more ice than it gains from new snowfall and starts to retreat, it’s very hard to slow it down because of this slope. And Thwaites is already retreating at an accelerating rate as the climate warms.

A cross section shows an ice shelf starting to float at the end of a glacier and how the bedrock below slopes inward toward the center of the ice sheet

Thwaites Glacier holds enough ice to raise global sea level by more than 2 feet (0.65 meters). Once Thwaites starts to destabilize, it also will destabilize neighboring glaciers . So, what happens to Thwaites affects all of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and that affects sea-level rise along coastlines everywhere.

What is marine ice cliff instability?

Marine ice cliff instability is a relatively new concept proposed by scientists in the past decade.

Many of the glaciers around Antarctica have huge floating extensions called ice shelves that buttress the glacier and slow its ice flow into the ocean. With the climate warming, we have seen some of these floating extensions collapse, sometimes very rapidly , in the span of a few weeks or months.

An aerial photo of the tall front of Thwaites' ice shelf, where icebergs calve off into the ocean.

If Thwaites’ ice shelf were to collapse, it would expose a very tall ice cliff facing the ocean along its 75-mile (120-kilometer) front . There is only so much force that ice can sustain, so if the cliff is too tall, it will collapse into the ocean.

Once that happens, a new ice cliff farther back would be exposed, and the new cliff would be even taller because it is farther inland. The theory of marine ice cliff instability suggests that if the cliffs collapse quickly enough, that could have a domino effect of ever-higher ice cliffs collapsing one after the other.

However, no one has observed marine ice cliff instability in action. We don’t know if it will happen, because a lot depends on how quickly the ice collapses.

What did you discover about the risk to Thwaites?

When the theory of marine ice cliff instability was first introduced, it used a rough approximation of how ice cliffs might collapse once the ice shelf was gone.

Studies since then have determined that ice cliffs won’t fail systematically until the ice is about 442 feet (135 meters) high. Even at that point, they would fail more slowly than projected until they became much taller.

We used three high-resolution models to explore what this new physical understanding of ice cliff instability would mean for Thwaites Glacier this century.

Our results show that if Thwaites’ entire ice shelf collapsed today, its ice front would not rapidly retreat inland due to marine ice cliff instability alone. Without the ice shelf, the glacier’s ice would flow much faster toward the ocean, thinning the front of the glacier. As a result, the ice cliffs wouldn’t be as high.

We found that Thwaites would remain fairly stable at least through 2100. We also simulated an ice shelf collapse in 50 years, when the glacier’s grounding line – where its grounded ice meets the ocean – would have retreated deeper inland. Even then, we found that marine ice cliff instability alone would not cause a rapid retreat.

The results call into question some recent estimates of just how fast Thwaites might collapse. That includes a worst-case scenario that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change mentioned in its latest assessment report but labeled as “low likelihood.”

Thwaites is the glacier everyone is worried about. If you model the entire ice sheet, this is where marine ice cliff instability starts and where it propagates far inland . So, if Thwaites isn’t as vulnerable to ice cliff failure as we thought, that’s a good sign for the entire ice sheet.

But marine ice cliff instability is only one mechanism of ice loss. This finding doesn’t mean Thwaites is stable.

What else is causing glaciers to retreat at an accelerating rate?

There are many processes that make the Antarctic ice sheet unstable, some of them very well understood.

Ice-ocean interactions explain most of the recent ice mass loss so far. Antarctica is a very cold place , so atmospheric warming isn’t having a large effect yet. But warm ocean currents are getting under the ice shelves, and they are thinning the ice from below , which weakens the ice shelves. When that happens, the ice streams flow faster because there is less resistance.

Colors show Thwaites Glacier flowing faster as it nears the ocean.

Over the past few decades , the Amundsen Sea sector, where Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers are located, has seen an intrusion of warm water from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which has been melting the ice from below .

What does climate change have to do with it?

Antarctica can seem like a faraway place, but human activities that warm the planet – such as burning fossil fuels – are having dramatic effects at the poles. Ice loss contributes to sea-level rise, affecting coastal regions around the world.

People’s choices today will determine how quickly the water rises.

  • Climate change
  • Sea level rise
  • West Antarctic ice sheet
  • Antarctic ice sheet
  • Thwaites glacier

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