1993 latur earthquake case study

Killari (Latur) 1993

First Online: 28 February 2022

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C. P. Rajendran 8 &
Kusala Rajendran 9

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The Killari (Latur) earthquake of September 30, 1993 (M w 6.3) that ruptured the surface of the Deccan Plateau was a surprising event in a continental interior region, quite far from the plate boundaries.

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Rajendran, C.P., Rajendran, K. (2022). Killari (Latur) 1993. In: Earthquakes of the Indian Subcontinent. GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-4748-2_5

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Published: 25 November 2020

Effects of Killari earthquake on the paleo-channel of Tirna River Basin from Central India using anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility

B. V. Lakshmi 1 na1 ,
K. Deenadayalan 1 ,
Praveen B. Gawali 1 &
Saumitra Misra 2 na1

Scientific Reports volume 10 , Article number: 20587 ( 2020 ) Cite this article

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Natural hazards
Solid Earth sciences

The Killari Earthquake (Moment magnitude 6.1) of September 30, 1993, occurred in the state of Maharashtra, India, has an epicenter (18°03′ N, 76°33′ E) located at ~ 40 km SSW of Killari Town. The ~ 125 km long basin of Tirna River, close to the Killari Town, currently occupies the area that has witnessed episodic intra-cratonic earthquakes, including the Killari Earthquake, during last 800 years. The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) study was performed on ~ 233 soft sedimentary core samples from six successions located in the upper to lower stream of the Tirna River basin in the present study in order to evaluate the effects of earthquake on the river flow dynamics and its future consequence. The AMS K max orientations of the samples from the upper reach of the river section suggest that the sedimentation in this part of the river was controlled by a N–S to NNW–SSE fluvial regime with a low or medium flow velocity. In the middle reaches of the basin, an abrupt shift in the palaeo-flow direction occurred to W–E with low velocity flow. However, a NW–SE higher palaeo-flow regime is identified in the following central part of the basin in down-stream direction, followed by a low-velocity palaeo-flow regime at the lower reach of the Tirna basin. We attribute the sudden high flow velocity regime in the central part of the river basin to an enhanced gradient of the river that resulted from the reactivation of a NW–SE fault transecting the Tirna River basin at the Killari Town. As the NW–SE faulting in regional scale is attributed as the main cause of Killari Earthquake, the reactivation of this fault, thus, could enhance the further possibility of an earthquake in near future, and hence leading to devastating flood in the almost flat-lying downstream part of the Tirna River.

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Introduction.

A devastating earthquake [Moment magnitude (M w ): 6.1] occurred close to Killari town (18°03′ N, 76°33′ E) in Maharashtra state, India 1 , 2 (Fig. 1 ), on September 30, 1993. This earthquake was considered as an example of intra-cratonic earthquake that occurred in a region of low background seismicity that resulted a poorly developed geomorphologic expression, and had long recurrence interval 2 , 3 . Multiple hypotheses were proposed in explaining the origin of this earthquake that include (a) rupture along a new fault plane 2 , 3 , 4 ; (b) subduction of Indian plate beneath Tibetan plate 5 , 6 , 7 , and (c) flexural buckling of Indian plate to the north in contact with Tibetan plate 8 . The most recent hypothesis suggests that the Killari Earthquake resulted due to a deep crustal/lithospheric dynamics 9 , 10 . Some other opinion suggests that the existing faults were reactivated to generate the earthquake 11 , 12 . The Killari Earthquake produced a NW–SE trending deformation zone having a length of ~ 3 km and width of 300 m, which was associated with surface rupture 2 , 3 . The geomorphological features that resulted from such deformation includes relative subsidence and/or uplift, and small scale local upheavals 1 , 2 . A ~ 40 m long and 2–8 m wide, narrow elevated linear ridge is also observed close to the Killari Town 13 . Also, a 17 km long, NW–SE reverse fault that extends from Talni to Killari Town with a dip 45°SW was suggested to have produced from the focal mechanism of the main shock (Fig. 1 ) 5 , 14 , although an elaborate structural analyses of this fault is awaited. It was also suggested that the Killari Earthquake had resulted from the reactivation of pre-existing fault 5 .

Geological map of the Tirna River basin showing the lineaments and location of studied outcrops (modified after Chetty and Rao 13 and Babar et al 19 ). The major (red dashed lines) and minor (black dashed lines) lineaments occurring along NE–SW, NW–SE, E–W and WNW–ESE directions. The sampling sites are: Ter, Dhutta, Makani, Sastur, Killari and Sawari. Red Star indicates epicenter of 1993 Killari Earthquake (M w = 6.1). The dextral displacements of the Tirna River faults are shown in F1 and F2.

The ~ 125 km long Tirna River, the subject of present study, is currently flowing towards the east along a channel that occupies ~ 10 km long WSW–ENE trending fault zone in the vicinity of the earthquake epicenter (Fig. 1 ). Several subsurface faults trending mainly NW–SE, and a few in N–S, NE–SW and ENE–WSW are also identified in satellite imageries crosscutting the Tirna River basin 13 . The relative movement along these NW–SE and ENE–WSW lineaments results in a well-developed mosaic of block structure 13 . However, the WSW–ENE lineament, along which the Tirna River is currently flowing close to the Killari Town, crosscuts all lineaments and exhibits sinistral strike-slip movement 13 . A re-investigation of the Tirna River basin has significance because this NW–SE trending river basin is confined in an area that contains epicenters of most of the earthquakes (M < 6.5) that occurred during the last ~ 800 years (Fig. 2 inset map).

Digital elevation model (DEM) of Tirna River basin (Source: http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org ) and inset map shows location of historic earthquakes around Killari (modified after Jain et al 2 and Rajendran et al 5 ).

The main focus of scientific research in and around Killari Town, till date, was mostly concentrated in evaluating the origin of 1993 earthquake 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 9 , 10 , 15 . However, no scientific study has been undertaken till date to evaluate the possible impact of earthquake on the regional environment in and around this area. The local agricultural economy and habitation in and around Killari Town mainly depends on the Tirna River 16 . Hence, in the present paper, we have attempted to identify the possible changes in palaeo-flow pattern of the Tirna River due to the earthquake using the technique of Anisotropy of Magnetic Susceptibility (AMS) of soft sediment cores collected from its floodplains, and tried to evaluate its future impact on the surrounding environment. An attempt has also been made to re-evaluate the future consequence of the Killari Earthquake.

Geological setting

The ~ 125 km long Tirna River is an important tributary of the Manjara River that flows to the Godavari River basin in Maharashtra, India (Fig. 1 ). The Tirna Basin extends from 17°51′13′′ N to 18°28′33′′ N latitudes and 75°47′51′′ E to 76°57′14′′ E longitudes, and covers an area of ~ 8280 km 2 with a maximum and minimum elevation of ~ 746 m to NW and ~ 553 m to E, respectively, with a general slope from ~ 10.3° towards NW to ~ 5.5° towards the east (Fig. 2 ). The main course of Tirna River is found to be controlled by a combination of NW–SE and WSW–ENE fault systems (Fig. 1 ). From its origin to the west upto the location Ter, the main course of the river changes from NW–SE to WSW–ENE; from Ter to Makani, the main channel of the river flows in NW–SE; finally, from Makani to Sawari, the main channel of the river orients WSW–ENE. The NE–SW lineament has poor control in shaping the direction of the river channel. The NW–SE fault, however, is found to be still active in controlling the course of the Tirna River, which are indicated by the dextral displacements of the Tirna River channel to the west of Ter along F 1 F 1 fault (box 1 in Fig. 1 ) and along F 2 F 2 fault close to Makani (box 2 in Fig. 1 ), and formation of a NW–SE tributary along F 3 F 3 fault close to Killari (box 3 in Fig. 1 ). This basin has dendritic drainage pattern, where the lower reaches of the basin have streams of low gradient and more sinuosity. The river also shows the evidences of channel movement by avulsion largely controlled by the lineaments (Fig. 1 ). The older palaeo-levees exist in the form of ridges of around 4–5 m high at Ter, Killari, Sastur and Makani villages along the Tirna River flood-plain. The abnormally thick (~ 12–15 m) sediments are deposited near the Ter Village at the bed level of the Tirna River forming mounds 17 , 18 . In the exposure scale, these deposits are marked by curvilinear deposits over the silty or sandy bank deposits preserved along the older course of the river. The Quaternary deposits of the Tirna River basin have been divided into three informal lithostratigraphic Formations; viz., (i) the oldest dark grey silt Formation, (ii) the middle light grey silt Formation, and (iii) the youngest dark grayish brown silt Formation 19 . The early and late Formations of the Tirna River are thought to be stratigraphically equivalent to the Ramnagar and Bauras Formations, respectively, of the Narmada River alluvium 20 , 21 . The Quaternary sediments present in the area can be tentatively classified as pre-floodplain, floodplain, and pedi-plain deposits.

Materials and methods

Sampling and measurements.

The sediment samples for the present study were collected in 8 cm 3 cylindrical plastic containers (2.5 cm diameter and 2.2 cm height) using a portable soft sediment corer and were oriented using a magnetic compass. Two hundred and thirty three (233) oriented samples were collected from six sections along the Tirna River basin (Figs. 1 , 2 ). The sampled sections were named as TR [Ter, number of sample (n) = 17], DT (Dhutta, n = 30), MK (Makani, n = 37), ST (Sastur, n = 26), KL (Killari, n = 57) and SW (Sawari, n = 66), which are located from the upstream to downstream of the Tirna River across the Killari Earthquake epicenter close to the Killari Town. Sampling process for this work focused primarily on fine‐grained sediments such as silt and clay samples and zones of pedogenically altered and disturbed horizons were avoided.

The laboratory analyses for rock magnetic investigations were carried out at the Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, Navi Mumbai, India. The measurement of low-field (300 Am −1 at 920 Hz) AMS for each specimen was carried out using a MFK1 kappabridge with measurements in 64 directions on three mutually orthogonal planes, using an automatic rotator sample holder. The azimuths and magnitudes of principal susceptibility axes (K max , K int , and K min ) were calculated using SUFAR software supplied by AGICO, together with other magnetic anisotropy parameters such as anisotropy ratios, expressed as corrected degree of anisotropy (P′) and shape (T) 22 . The analysis of the AMS data was performed using the Anisoft 5 software.

Isothermal Remanent Magnetization (IRM) was imparted with a pulse magnetizer at a forward field of 20 and 1000 mT and at backward fields of 300 mT. All remanences were measured using a Molspin spinner magnetometer. The magnetization acquired at 1000 mT was defined as the saturation isothermal remanent magnetization (SIRM). The remanent coercive force (H cr ) characteristic was obtained using a MMPM9 pulse magnetizer and a Molspin spinner magnetometer. Selected samples of each profile were subjected to high-temperature magnetization and hysteresis loop measurements in order to gain further insights into magnetic mineralogy and grain size. For representative samples, thermomagnetic runs of magnetic susceptibility ( k – T curves) were performed using a Kappabridge KLY-4S (AGICO) equipped with a furnace. The sample was heated from room temperature to 700 °C and cooled back to room temperature in an argon atmosphere. Hysteresis loops and First-order reversal curves (FORCs) were obtained by an alternating gradient magnetometer Micromag 2900 with a maximum field of ± 1 T. Values of saturation magnetization ( M s ), saturation remanent magnetization ( M rs ), coercive force ( H c ) and coercivity of remanence ( H cr ) were calculated from the hysteresis loops. FORC diagrams were processed using the FORCinel software 23 .

Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) method

The AMS of a rock sample corresponds to a symmetric, second-rank tensor that can be described by a triaxial ellipsoid with principal eigenvectors K max > K int > K min representing the maximum, intermediate and minimum susceptibility axes respectively of the tensor ellipsoid 24 . The AMS technique has been widely used in geological science to evaluate the orientation of mineral fabric in igneous rocks or structurally deformed rocks 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , naturally deposited soft-sediments 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 and in laboratory deposited sediments 45 , 46 , 47 .

The experimental studies suggest that in fluvial environment, minimum susceptibility axes (K min ) of the AMS ellipsoid always orient perpendicular (i.e., vertical) to the flow direction on a near horizontal depositional surface irrespective of weak to moderate (less than ~ 1 cm s −1 ) or strong (greater than or equal to ~ 1 cm s −1 ) current velocity 36 , 40 , 46 , 47 , 48 , 49 , 50 , 51 , 52 . The K max axes, on the other hand, will be either parallel or perpendicular to the direction of flow when the current is either weak to moderate or strong, respectively 36 , 40 , 46 , 47 , 48 , 49 , 50 , 51 , 52 . Statistically, the long axis of K min enveloping ellipse is parallel to the orientation of the main cluster of K max axes in stereographic projection in low to moderate velocity environment and perpendicular in high velocity environment 36 , 39 , 45 , 46 , 47 , 49 . The resultant shape of AMS ellipsoid of sediments is, therefore, prolate in fluvial environment, and the shape is oblate for sediments deposited in still water environment 47 . However, superimposition of some anisotropy on this oblate shape is possible if elongated grains roll on the shallowly sloping depositional surface and are preferentially aligned perpendicular to the slope 47 .

Following the pioneering laboratory experiment 45 , several authors 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 43 , 44 applied these AMS techniques to study paleo-current directions in sedimentary rocks, especially in sediments of appropriate grain size. As the orientation of AMS ellipsoid in sedimentary environment is controlled by the direction and velocity of water flow 47 , this technique can be efficiently used to evaluate the palaeo-velocity of Tirna River because the main flow direction of this river is known to be dominantly eastward (Fig. 2 ).

Wide varieties of parameters have been used to describe the axial magnitude relationships of the susceptibility ellipsoid 53 . The corrected anisotropy degree expressed as P′ = exp [2{(ƞ 1 − ƞ m ) 2 + (ƞ 2 − ƞ m ) 2 + (ƞ 3 − ƞ m ) 2 }] ½ where ƞ 1 = ln K 1 , ƞ 2 = ln K 2 , ƞ 3 = ln K 3 , ƞ m = (ƞ 1 + ƞ 2 + ƞ 3 )/3; and K 1 , K 2 and K 3 are maximum, intermediate and minimum susceptibility vectors respectively 22 . P′ shows the degree of anisotropy and reflects the eccentricity of the ellipsoid, i.e., the intensity of preferred orientation of minerals in a rock. The shape parameter, expressed as T = (2 ƞ 2 − ƞ 1 − ƞ 3 ) / (ƞ 1 − ƞ 3 ), reflects the symmetry of the ellipsoid. It varies from − 1 (perfectly prolate shape) through 0 (triaxial shape, transition between prolate and oblate shape) to + 1 (perfectly oblate shape).

Magnetic carriers

Temperature (T) dependent of magnetic susceptibility (χ) curves (χ–T) for selected samples from Ter, Dhutta, Makani, Sastur, Killari and Sawari sections are shown in Fig. 3 . There is a decrease in χ values at ~ 300–400 °C and ~ 580 °C in heating curves (Fig. 3 a–e) in almost all the measured samples. In sample Sawari 0.8, an increase in susceptibility is seen to be present with increase in temperature, which before dropping significantly at ∼ 350 °C. It is then seen to rise and is followed by a sharp drop at ∼ 580 °C (Fig. 3 f). The sharp drops in susceptibility value at ∼ 350 °C and ∼ 580 °C indicate that the magnetic carrier in the samples is titanomagnetite and magnetite, respectively. The increase in χ between room temperature and the Curie temperature is typical for Ti-rich titanomagnetite 53 , 54 for Ter, Dhutta, Makani, Sastur and Killari samples (Fig. 3 a–e). For all the samples, susceptibility is seen to have recovered gradually with each successive step during cooling (Fig. 3 ), and the destruction of magnetic properties of Ti-rich titanomagnetite phases 53 , 54 is the cause of the irreversibility of cooling curve.

( a – f ) Typical magnetic susceptibility versus temperature plots (χ-T curves) for representative samples from different depths from six studied sections Ter, Dhutta, Makani, Sastur, Killari and Sawari.

Figure 4 shows IRM acquisition curves for saturated isothermal remanent magnetization and remanent coercivity spectra for all the six sedimentary sections. The IRM acquisition curves for Ter, Dhutta, Makani, Sastur and Sawari samples are seen to increase rapidly from 0 to 150 mT, where ~ 70 to 80% of the maximum magnetization is acquired by 200 mT, and all samples achieve near complete saturation at 1000 mT (Fig. 4 a–d,f). These observations suggest the low-coercivity ferrimagnetic mineral as the main magnetic carrier in our samples, with a possibility of having traces of high-coercivity magnetic mineral(s). For the Killari samples, < 95% of saturation is achieved at ~ 200 to 300 mT, indicating contribution is predominantly from a low-coercivity mineral (Fig. 4 e). The values of remanent coercivity of representative samples (Fig. 4 a–f) range between 25 and 80 mT, suggesting predominance of low-coercivity ferrimagnetic minerals.

( a – f ) Acquisition of isothermal remanent magnetization and backfield demagnetization for representative samples from the selected sites.

FORC diagrams and hysteresis parameters

To identify domain state that help in determining grain size and also to discriminate different components within a magnetic mineral assemblage 56 , 57 , 58 , 59 , 60 , 61 , 62 , 63 , FORC diagrams and hysteresis parameters are obtained for the samples (Fig. 5 ). The FORC diagrams of the samples show characteristics of vortex state magnetic grains by a peak at B C ~ 10–15 mT with closed contours 57 , 58 , 59 , 60 , 61 . The hysteresis properties of the analyzed samples, viz., M s , M rs , H c and H cr are summarized in Fig. 5 e. In M rs /M s versus H cr /H c plot 63 , the samples are seen to form a cluster within the pseudo-single domain (PSD) grain size. The hysteresis ratios are consistent with a dominant low-coercivity ferrimagnetic component magnetic grain size, most likely magnetite.

( a – d ) Representative first-order reversal curve (FORC) diagrams for the representative samples from different depths, (FORCinel) ( e ) Results of Hysteresis measurements presented in a Day plot 64 .

Stereographic projections of K max and K min principal axes of AMS ellipsoids from all six sections are shown in Fig. 6 . The K min axes of Ter soft-sediment samples (N = 17) are mostly sub-vertical and dipping towards the north, where as the sub-horizontal K max axes in this section are oriented primarily in N–S direction. In P′ versus T plots, Ter sedimentary samples plot only in the oblate quadrant with relatively low P′ values of < 1.015 (Fig. 7 a).

Equal area projections (lower hemisphere) of the directions of K max (solid squares) and K min axes (open circles) of AMS ellipsoids. The spreads in orientations of K max and K min axes are qualitatively indicated in the stereograms. The lineament pattern along the Tirna River basin also shown (dashed lines).

Variation of anisotropy degree (P′) and shape parameter (T) for the selected sites ( a ) Ter and Dhutta ( b ) Makani and Sastur ( c ) Killari and ( d ) Sawari.

Dhutta sedimentary succession, ~ 20 km SE of Ter, shows sub-vertical to inclined K min axes mostly towards NNW-SSE, and horizontal to sub-horizontal K max axes that have orientations mostly between NNW-SSE and NNE-SSW (Fig. 6 ). The long axis of K min ellipse is statistically parallel or sub-parallel to the orientation of K max axes. In P′ versus T plot, the majority of data from Dhutta succession plot in the oblate field (73%) with P′ (< 1.015), although subordinate spread in prolate field (27%) is also noticed (Fig. 7 a). The majority of data from the Dhutta section are highly overlapping with those from the Ter succession in P′ versus T plot.

In the Makani section, in the middle reaches of the Tirna River, K min axes are also vertical to incline that are oriented mostly towards E–W, although a few K min axes show inclination towards NNE (Fig. 6 ). The corresponding K max axes are horizontal to sub-horizontal and the majority of data are oriented in E–W. Like the Dhutta section, the long axis of K min ellipse is also statistically parallel or sub-parallel to the orientation of K max axes. In P′ versus T plot, data are plotted in oblate field in majority of cases (73%) with significant distribution in prolate quadrant (27%) as well. All the data have P′ < 1.015 (Fig. 7 b).

In the Sastur succession, the majority of K min axes are vertical to incline in E-W direction (Fig. 6 ), whereas the K max axes are horizontal to sub-horizontal and are oriented in ENE–WSW direction in average. Like the Dhutta and Makani sections, the long axis of K min ellipse is also statistically parallel or sub-parallel to the orientation of K max axes. The P′ versus T plot reveals that the majority of data from Sastur succession lie in the oblate field (85%) with a few in prolate field (15%), wherein and the P′ values for the majority of data are ≤ 1.015 (Fig. 7 b). However, a few data in the oblate field has P′ values between ~ 1.015 and 1.04.

In the Killari sedimentary section, K min axes are vertical to incline in NW–SE (Fig. 6 ). The horizontal to sub-horizontal K max axes are oriented from ESE–WNW to NE–SW. Unlike the previous three locations in upstream direction (Dhutta, Makani, Sastur), the trends of K min axes in the Killari section are perpendicular to highly oblique to those of K max axes. In P′ versus T plot, the Killari data are mostly distributed in the oblate field (72%), however, a spread in the prolate fields (28%) is also noticed. The P′ values are ≤ 1.015, however, a few samples have P′ values between 1.03 and 1.04. The Dhutta, Makani and Killari sections are distinct from the Ter section by having a low to important prolate component (~ 27%) in P′-T plot (Fig. 7 a–c).

In the Sawari section, the distribution of K min axes are sub-vertical to inclined, the inclined K min axes are mostly oriented in NW–SE, although spread of a few sub-horizontal K min axes towards NE is also seen (Fig. 6 ). The K max axes are horizontal to sub-horizontal, and trend mostly in NW–SE direction. Unlike the Killari section, the long axis of the enveloping ellipse on the main cluster of K min axes of the Sawari section is statistically parallel to the orientation of the majority of K max axes, which is, however, similar to those of the Dhutta, Makani and Sastur sections. In P′ versus T plot, the Sawari data mostly plot in oblate field (85%) and a few in prolate fields (15%). The P′ values for these samples show higher range of variation of 1.03 (Fig. 7 d).

The rock magnetic experiments on the present Tirna River soft sedimentary core samples help to infer ferrimagnetic minerals and PSD magnetic grain sizes predominantly (Figs. 3 , 4 , 5 ) in the samples. The step-like decrease in magnetic susceptibility at temperature 300–400 °C and 580 °C ranges suggests the mineral to be titanomagnetite with various Ti contents 54 , 55 (Fig. 3 a–f). The presence of magnetite/titanomagnetite is also supported by inference from the IRM and FORC study (Figs. 4 and 5 ). The decrease in magnetic susceptibility at 580 °C shows that magnetite grains were also present. Although, the river sediments, in general, contains more oxidized form of iron oxides, i.e. hematite, the presence of magnetite/titanomagnetite in the Tirna River sediments, therefore, suggests that the river sediments were subjected to protected surface alteration.

The experimental studies suggest that the orientation of K max axes of AMS ellipsoids of river deposits is the function of two factors viz., direction and velocity of river flow 47 . As the flow direction of the Tirna River is constant mainly from NW to SE followed by W to E (Figs. 1 and 2 ), the orientations of K max AMS axes can, therefore, be interpreted as the function of flow current of the river 41 . The orientations of K max axes of AMS ellipsoid suggest that in the upper reaches of the Tirna River, at the Ter and Dhutta sections, the sedimentation was controlled mainly by the N–S and NNW–SSE flowing fluvial regimes, respectively (Fig. 6 ). The spread of main cluster of K max axes in Dhutta section parallel (or sub-parallel) to the long-axis of K min ellipsoid suggests medium to low palaeo-flow regime in this part of the Tirna River 37 . The low velocity of the palaeo-river flow in the upper reach of the Tirna River is also interpreted by mostly oblate shape of the AMS ellipsoids in P′ versus T diagrams 64 , 65 , 66 (Fig. 7 a). The sub-parallel relations of long-axes of K min ellipsoids with the cluster distributions of the K max axes in Makani and Sastur sections (Fig. 6 ) are also suggestive of low-velocity palaeo-fluvial environment 47 , 48 . However a subordinate spread in the prolate filed of Dhutta and Makani sections in the P′ versus T diagrams perhaps indicate local seasonal variation in river flow velocity.

In the central part of the river including the Makani, Sastur and Killari sections, the flow direction, as indicated by distribution of long-axes of K max ellipsoids, seems to have shifted, in general, from E–W (in Makani and Sastur) to SW–NE (Killari) directions, although a wide variation of flow directions is observed in Killari section (Fig. 6 ). The near orthogonal relationship between the long-axis of K min ellipsoid and respective clusters of K max axes in the Killari section, suggesting high velocity with greater than ~ 1 cm s −1 in the central part of the Tirna River 36 , 47 , 48 . The high velocity of the palaeo-river flow in central part of the Tirna River is also suggested by mostly oblate to prolate shape of the AMS ellipsoids mainly from the Killari section in P′ versus T diagrams 29 , 65 , 66 , 67 (Fig. 7 c). However, in the Sawari section the long-axis of K min AMS ellipsoid is oriented parallel (or sub-parallel) to the distribution of the K max AMS cluster (Fig. 6 ), indicating dominantly low-flow palaeo-regime in this section of the Tirna River 36 . The mostly oblate shape of the AMS ellipsoid in P′ versus T (Fig. 7 d) also support low-velocity regime in this lowest reach of the Tirna River.

The WNW–ESE Tirna River basin presently occupies an area that has been active seismologically for the last ~ 800 years 2 , 5 (Fig. 2 inset map), and this seismicity is proposed to have been propagated by movement along a major NW–SE inter-cratonic reverse fault situated close to the Killari 3 , 5 , although a detail structural information on this fault is awaiting (Fig. 1 ). The moderate dextral displacements of the main Tirna River channel along the F 1 F 1 fault to the west of Ter, and F 2 F 2 fault to the west of Makani (Fig. 1 ) indicate that the NW–SE fault system is still active at present post-dating the formation of Tirna River. Therefore, it can be concluded that a possible reactivation along the NW–SE F 3 F 3 fault, crosscutting the Tirna River channel to the west of Killari (Figs. 1 , 6 ), in the recent geological past has enhanced the gradient of the Tirna River towards the east of this lineament. This recent movement along this fault plane, in turn, increases the slope of this part of the river channel resulting relatively high velocity of river flow in the central section of the Tirna River basin close to this fault zone at Killari during monsoon.

Hence, further movement along this presently active NW–SE fault could lead to the possibility of a major earthquake in this area in future. A fresh movement along this reverse fault could have further increased the gradient of the Tirna River close to the Killari town. This could lead to the possibility of sudden flash flooding in the Sawari section and to its downstream direction, to the east, particularly during the monsoon season. So no further habitation close to the Sawari section of the Tirna River is recommended on this study. However, if the movement along major intra-craton major fault system development in the Deccan Traps basalts was responsible for repeated earthquake in this area 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 11 , a detail regional analyses of the existing fault system as well as rock mechanical data are important for further prediction of earthquake in this area.

Conclusions

In this present study, we determine paleo-flow directions of the Tirna River sediments using anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility with the help of rock magnetic studies. The AMS study results are summarized below:

AMS analyses indicate that the recent sedimentation in the upper reaches of Tirna River (i.e., Ter and Dhutta sectors) was dominated by N–S to NNW–SSE fluvial regime with low to medium flow velocity (< 1 cm s −1 ).

Low fluvial velocity (< 1 cm s −1 ) with an abrupt shift of flow direction to E–W was observed in the middle reaches of the river in Makani and Sastur sectors. In the lower reach of the Tirna River, in the Sawari section, low fluvial velocity is also observed in NNW–SSE direction.

High flow velocity (> 1 cm s −1 ) with a SW–NE flow direction was observed in central section of Tirna River in the Killari sector. This sudden change to high fluvial velocity in the central section was resulted due to higher slope of the river valley in this area due to the NW–SE faulting transecting the river channel at Killari sector.

As the Killari Earthquake is sensitive to regional intra-cratonic faulting 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 11 , an in depth study on the regional fault system along with a detail AMS study on Tirna River soft sedimentary cores are important for better understanding the possibility of further earthquake in future. This is because further movement along these fault system could have affects the flow pattern of Tirna River leading to the possibility of future flooding in this area.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to Prof. D.S. Ramesh, Director, IIG, Navi Mumbai, India, for necessary permission and funding support for publishing this paper. This work is carried out from the contribution of DST-IIG in-house project [HERD-EMS (BVL)]. S.M. is indebted to NRF, South Africa (Grant No. 91089), for providing necessary funds for this collaborative research work. Dr. Sainath Aher, Sangamner is thanked for the DEM image. The quality of the manuscript has been greatly improved based on suggestions and comments of anonymous reviewers. We are grateful to A. Chakrabarti, Kolkata, for his help in language improvement on this manuscript.

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Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, New Panvel, Navi Mumbai, 410218, India

B. V. Lakshmi, K. Deenadayalan & Praveen B. Gawali

Discipline of Geological Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 4000, South Africa

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B.V.L. organized this study including field work, sampling, and measurement and wrote manuscript. K.D. and P.B.G. took part in collecting samples from field work. B.V.L. and K.D. performed experiments, carried out data analysis and prepared the figures. S.M. reviewed the results and codrafted the text. All authors have actively participated in scientific discussions and preparation of the manuscript.

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Lakshmi, B.V., Deenadayalan, K., Gawali, P.B. et al. Effects of Killari earthquake on the paleo-channel of Tirna River Basin from Central India using anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility. Sci Rep 10 , 20587 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-77542-9

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The 1993 Killari (Latur), central India, earthquake: An example of fault reactivation in the Precambrian crust

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Journal of Seismology

ahmad hussain

The source of the 8 October 2005 earthquake of M 7.6 was the northwest-striking Balakot–Bagh (B–B) fault, which had been mapped by the Geological Survey of Pakistan prior to the earthquake but had not been recognized as active except for a 16-km section near Muzaffarabad. The fault follows the Indus–Kohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ); both cut across and locally offset the Hazara–Kashmir Syntaxis defined by the Main Boundary and Panjal thrusts. The fault has no expression in facies of the Miocene–Pleistocene Siwalik Group but does offset late Pleistocene terrace surfaces in Pakistan-administered Jammu-Kashmir. Two en-échelon anticlines near Muzaffarabad and Balakot expose Precambrian Muzaffarabad Limestone and are cut by the B–B fault on their southwest sides, suggesting that folding and exposure of Precambrian rocks by erosion accompanied Quaternary displacement along the fault. The B–B fault has reverse separation, northeast side up; uplift of the northeast side accompanied displacement, producing higher topography and steeper stream gradients northeast of the fault. No surface expression of the B–B fault has been found northwest of the syntaxis, although the IKSZ and steeper stream gradients continue at least as far as the Indus River, the site of the Pattan earthquake of M 6.2 in 1974. To the southeast, northwest-striking faults were mapped by the Geological Survey of Pakistan. One of these faults, the Riasi thrust, cuts across the southwest flank of an anticline exposing Precambrian limestone. Farther southeast, in Indian-administered territory, Holocene activity on the Riasi thrust has been described. In the Kangra reentrant still farther southeast, active faulting may follow the Soan thrust, along which Holocene and Pleistocene offsets have been described. The Soan thrust, rather than the south flank of the Janauri anticline, may represent the surface projection of the 1905 Kangra earthquake of M 7.8.

Devender Kumar

Anil Earnest

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The observed thermal anomaly as an earthquake Precursor: A case study from the 1993 Latur earthquake prone area in Western India

Vijay P Dimri, Simanchal Padhy, N C Mondal, G K Reddy, G G. Ramacharyulu, and 3 more

This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal.

https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-67573/v2

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We report and discuss monitoring of short-term variations of widely used multi-geophysical parameters in Latur-Killari area in western India, the region that witnessed a major devastating earthquake in 1993. An abnormal rise in atmospheric temperature of more than 20 ° C at 11200 m height was observed in the air-flight just 100 km away from Latur during a monsoon period. We investigated the cause of such abnormal rise in temperature in relation to the seismicity of the area for the 1993 Latur earthquake along with the continuous monitoring of ground water level and soil Helium gas for a week under a precursory 'quick please' operation in the study area. There were no seismic signals associated with this precursor rise that led to the suspension of the operation after a week time. It is also observed that this thermal anomaly is not followed by any major earthquake over the area, which has larger implications in atmosphere research area, suggesting a detailed investigation of such anomaly that may provide a better insight into the precursory behavior of the observed thermal anomaly by overcoming the constraints of accurate retrieval of temperature due to inadequate penetration of Satellite based thermal sensor into thick clouds. Findings of this study certainly call for continuous monitoring of temperature over the earthquake prone areas to gain insight into the physics of short-lived variation in temperature over spatially limited extent, especially over the earthquake prone areas for improved seismic hazard assessment.

1993 Latur earthquake

Earthquake precursor

Tropospheric temperature

Ground water level

Introduction

Peninsular India is regarded as one of the hotspots of generating past moderate to strong earthquakes that found enigmatic seismogenesis having no plausible earthquake precursors for the region devoid of collisional, subduction and active magmatism (Mukhopadhyay et al. 2006; Mishra et al. 2008). The Latur-Killari area in western India, one of the stable continental regions (SCRs) of the world, witnessed a major devastating earthquake in 1993.

Earthquake precursors are difficult to recognize because of the complex processes occurring in the Earth’s crust, various types of earthquake mechanisms, and the lack of extensive and continuous geophysical and geochemical monitoring in most earthquake prone areas including the SCRs of the world. A variety of earthquake precursors, including geophysical, geochemical (Barsukov et al. 1985; King 1986), geodetic, seismological (Sengupta et al. 2018), biophysical, thermal (Guangmeng 2008), and other phenomena have been identified preceding major earthquakes. Some of these precursors include: the sudden change in seismicity characterized by seismic b -value characterizing the magnitude-frequency distribution, and fractal dimension of spatio-temporal distribution of epicenetrs (Dimri 2005a, 2005b; Ravi Prakash and Dimri, 2000; Subhadra et al. 2018), fluctuation in ground-water levels due to change in stress (Yuce and Ugurluoglu 2003), change of gravity and magnetic field of earth and electrical resistivity of sub-surface rock materials, including self-potential values (Hayakawa and Fujinawa 1994; Noritomi 1978; Hayakawa and Fujinawa 1994), release of Radon and Helium gas (Wakita et al. 1978), rise in skin surface and atmospheric temperature (Choudhury et al. 2006; Guangmeng 2008), atmospheric storm-related wind drag on continents, fault zone rock layer heating associated with the solar and geomagnetic storms, difference in electromagnetic emission (ULF/VLF). Several operational earthquake forecasting methodologies have been developed to validate earthquake precursors without any common consensus on different parameters discussed by different researchers (Dutta et al. 2012a-b; Outkin et al. 2013 a-b; Dutta et al. 2013).

Creation of micro-fractures due to the slow build-up of strain resulting in escape of radiogenic helium and radon provides the basis of geochemical methods of earthquake prediction (Barsukov et al. 1985; Virk et al. 2001). Geochemical and hydrological signals preceding the major earthquakes have been used for earthquake prediction, especially in China, Japan, the former Soviet Union, and the United States (King 1986). Yuce and Ugurluoglu (2003) have shown the ground water level changes in 19 exploration wells and recorded pre-seismic, co-seismic, and post-seismic water level changes during the Izmit and Duzce earthquakes in the Eskisehir region, Turkey. Comparing the precursory anomalies associated with the 1995 Kobe earthquake and the 1978 Izo-Oshima earthquake, Silver and Wakita (1996) concluded that many pre-seismic anomalies are true precursors, although the anomalies may exhibit some response heterogeneity. Wakita et al (1978) observed a high concentration of helium up to 350 ppm in soil gas along a fault during the 1966 Matsushiro earthquake swarm in Japan. Radon variation in spring water before and after the 1999 Chamoli earthquake, Garhwal Himalaya, India was reported by Choubey et al. (1999) and they found that their observation was in conjecture with radon variability for other earthquakes occurred, elsewhere in the world (Outkin et al. 2013a-b).

Anomalous changes in various geo-electrical parameters were observed before several earthquakes in different parts of the world (Noritomi 1978; Hayakawa and Fujinawa 1994). Thus, anomalous changes in various precursory parameters have been documented in different parts of the world. However, there is no consensus on the statistical significance of these precursors and their reliability, due to the lack of reproducibility and understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms. For example, a successful prediction of an earthquake based on some of these precursory studies was carried out by China for the 1975 Haicheng, China earthquake (M 7.3), but another prediction in 1976 using the similar precursory studies was considered as a failure in Tangshan (Ludwin 2004). Similarly, as another example in India, it was observed that the temporal variations in dissolved helium cannot be ascribed to the contemporary enhanced seismic activity in Bhavnagar in Gujarat, India (Gupta and Deshpande 2003). In the same way, although there are several pieces of evidence for many thermal anomalies in National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data, but not all cases of thermal anomaly correspond to the earthquake occurrence. So, it appears that different precursors may appear at different stages in different places of earthquake preparation zones. Then, the rule of game is ‘leave nothing to chance’ to probe further if one or two precursors appear. We, therefore, need to improve how to reduce such false alarm in earthquake precursor studies. To this end, we think multi-geophysical data, together with possibly temperature, pressure, humidity of the atmosphere and seismicity and so on may be used to correlate the sub-surface processes like occurrence of earthquakes with atmospheric phenomena.

Anomalous variations on local to regional scale can occur in lithosphere, atmosphere, and ionosphere which can be explained by the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model that has been validated based on analysis of several earthquakes (Hayakawa et al. 2010; Pulinets and Ouzounov 2011; Yao et al. 2012; Mahmood et al. 2017, 2018), although the transfer mechanism of seismic/ electromagnetic is not clearly understood (Mahmood 2019).

It is widely accepted that seismological precursor studies generally consider the anomalous change in surface temperature subject to a significant earthquake as a precursory signal. Our study, unlike others mentioned above, discusses the variation in air temperature in a period of no significant earthquake. The motivation of such investigation can briefly be presented as follows. First, in addition to the tectonic stress changes, as has typically been considered in seismology, relatively small changes in stress in sub-surface can also result from climate-like forcing (non-tectonic forcing) affecting the micro-seismicity of the area (Buis 2019). The climate-induced stress changes, probably because of their small magnitudes, might or might not be followed by a major earthquake (Buis 2019). Second , t here is no single existing method for earthquake precursor monitoring that can provide reliable earthquake forecasting on a regional scale, mainly because of the complexity of earthquake processes and also partly because of the diverse tectonic settings where seismic activities take place (Ouzounov 2018). According to that study, earth observations both space and ground-based present new possibilities by observing possible lithosphere-atmosphere coupling. Third, the build-up of tectonic stress results in the enhanced thermal infrared (TIR) emission from earth’s surface (surface temperature rise) by way of degassing from rocks under stress and/or P-hole (sites of electron deficiency) activation in stressed rock volume and their recombination at the rock-air interface (Saraf et al. 2008; Ouzounov 2018). It is worth mentioning that the TIR emission from the rocks under stress is different from frictional heat that develops at the fault surfaces during rupture giving rise to large tectonic events. Thus, the pre-earthquake thermal anomaly is not necessary to precede major earthquakes always (Banerjee 2007). The occurrence of a major tectonic event following the TIR anomaly is constrained by frictional heat, however. Finally, the TIR emission ultimately affects the atmosphere by ionizing air, where ionization is caused by radon discharge and exchange of heat energy causing the release of latent heat (Natarajan and Philipoff 2018). A recent study shows that the proxies of the thermal anomaly (emanation of radon, P-hole, escape of CO 2 , CH 4 , and other greenhouse gases, etc.) may show up anomalous changes at different altitudes from the sub-surface to the atmosphere in relation to the 2015 Nepal earthquake (Jing et al. 2019). In the line of the above thoughts, we think that earth observations from both ground and atmosphere could provide some resemblance with earthquake processes.

To this end, we made a very first attempt to understand such a correlation between these parameters with the help of data obtained by conducting short-term multi-parametric geophysical experiments in the Latur-Killari earthquake prone area of western India, where seismogenesis still remains a puzzle in sense to understand what tectonic factors are responsible for earthquake genesis. In turn this piece of study may open an ample avenue for further research in the field of earthquake precursory study.

Methods/experimental

Precursor observed

On 18 June 2007 at 7.20 am during monsoon period, the digital display of an aircraft from Mumbai to Hyderabad flight showed that outside temperature at 11,272 m was -17 º c to -18 º c on its usual path near the Sholapur-Gulberga sites (see Fig. 1a for site locations) and up to a location where aircraft started descending for landing at Hyderabad airport. Table 1 shows the details of temperature displayed on the Sholapur-Gulberga-Hyderabad sector. The temperature data listed in Table 1 were derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation observation from aircraft. The occultation data processing system uses signals continuously emitted by the GPS satellites. One of the sensors of a pitot-static system accurately positioned in the airflow measures the temperature that is obtained from the Air Data Reference System (ADRS) display on board an aircraft. It was a normal Mumbai-Hyderabad flight during monsoon environment, except the abnormal outside temperature at 11272 meters height, with the atmospheric temperature at such height normally in the range of -38 ° c to -42 ° c in the Sholapur-Gulberga area, as recorded by the Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation technique.

In order to understand whether there exists a correlation between this event and changes in any sub-surface geophysical parameters and investigate possible causes of such a conspicuous rise in temperature, we conducted a short-term multi-parametric geophysical experiment in the study area. The experiment includes monitoring seismicity of the area, fluctuations of ground water level, and soil gas helium, which are discussed in detail in the ‘Results and Discussion’ section.

Results And Discussion

The results of our investigations based on the monitoring of each of the geophysical parameters are discussed as follows.

Precursory parameters

(i) Seismicity of the Latur -Killari area

The main shock of the 1993 Latur earthquake occurred in the Deccan Plateau, a typical stable continental region ( Fig. 1a ). Geologically the area belongs to the Deccan Trap Plateau basalts of the Paleocene age that are composed of a series of lava-flows in western and central India. Several studies showed that the study region was also impacted by historical earthquakes (Rajendran et al., 1996; Gupta et al. 1999). A maximum intensity of VIII+ (MSK scale) was assigned to the 1993 earthquake. The aftershocks were monitored by a network of up to 21 stations between October 8, 1993 and January 31, 1994. A majority of the aftershocks occurred within a 10 km radius from the main shock. On the basis of the location of aftershocks in the first few days, a plane dipping at 45 ° towards the southwest and striking at 135 ° is inferred to be the fault plane ( Fig . 1b ) for this event. The fault plane solution of the main shock reveals a reverse faulting mechanism (Gupta et al. 1998).

The 1993 main shock was preceded by immense swarm activities about a year back in 1992; the swarms were followed by a quiescent period until a major earthquake took place in September 1993. Twenty six events were recorded by the CSIR-NGRI seismological observatory at Hyderabad from 18 October to 15 November 1992 in the Latur-Killari region. The largest magnitude earthquake (M 4.0) was recorded on 18 October, 1992. Since then the area is quiescent except the two earthquakes of magnitude 3.0 and 3.4 in January 2006. Dissimilarity between the swarm activity in 1992 and two earthquakes in January 2006 was not the enough reason to stop further probing, in spite of the fact that a time span of 14 years (from 1993 until 2007) is too short to build up the stress for a major earthquake; however, possibility of smaller to moderate earthquakes cannot be ruled out. Moreover, an earthquake of magnitude 3.8 was observed in the study area on 6 September 2007, although its occurrence in relation to the observed thermal anomaly is not yet clear.

Based on earthquake precursor studies, it is possible that the observed anomaly could result from (i) the thermal sensors that might not have penetrated into thick clouds, as expected in a monsoon time to accurately retrieve the temperature at such height, (ii) changes in meteorological phenomena, and (iii) changes in sub-surface properties, as inferred from geophysical phenomena. Although less likely, but we cannot exclude to mention that if none of the above parametric variations exhibits precursory signature, the temperature sensor of aircraft may malfunction, a case of aviation hazard and a matter of great concern for the safety of passengers. Since the Sholapur-Gulberga region is about 100 km from the Latur-Killari area, where an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 occurred on 29 September, 1993 killing more than 10000 people with heavy damage to property (Rajendran et al. 1996), it was then decided to probe other precursors in the vicinity of the area under operation ‘quick please’ to get relevant information from several agencies in India or abroad as quickly as possible.

(ii) Fluctuations in ground water level (20 to 23 June, 2007)

A continuous water-level monitoring was conducted by CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute (CSIR-NGRI) during the period 20-23 June 2007 around the Latur-Killari area. Fluctuations in water level are worked out by taking care of rain fall recharge and withdrawal of ground water by the pumping. Eleven bore as well as dug wells were selected for continuous monitoring of water level, as shown in Fig. 2 . The depth of these bore wells varies from 80 m to 170m, whereas the depth of dug wells varies from 10 m to 30 m. Finding a precursory signal in terms of fluctuation of ground water level during rainy seasons is a very challenging scientific exercise, which was carried out during the monitoring period. Initially, well inventory was carried out for about 50 tube/bore/dug wells in and around the study area as well as along the national highway to Latur. The water levels were monitored continuously with an interval of 1 to 4 hours for four days. The depth of water level in bore wells varies from 11 m to 38 m below ground level (bgl) and in dug wells it varies from 6 m to 11 m bgl. The water levels in most of the wells are in rising order, as shown in Fig. 3(a-c) . It has raised up to 3.34 m in bore well and 5.09 m in dug well during the period 20-23 June 2007. The rise in water level is mainly due to heavy rainfall in the area.

Fig. 3a shows the change in the water level in bore wells L1 and L5 and dug wells L3 and L9. The wells show an increase in water level except L1, which shows an apparent decline of 0.39 m over a period of 3 hr 15 min at 3.25 pm (on 21 st June 2007 from 8.30 AM to 11.45 AM at the rate of 0.12 m/hr) during which there has not been any pumping of water neither from the observation well nor from the vicinity. Had there not been a rise in water level due to rain (at the rate of 0.047 m/hr), the true decline would have been 0.54 m in this well. This well is situated near Killari, as shown in Fig. 2 .

Fig. 3b shows the variation in water level in bore well L2 and dug well L4. The bore well shows an initial rise in water level, which may be due to rain. However, the decline shown in the hydrograph is due to pumping of water from the well. The dug well shows an initial rise of 5.09 m followed by a continuous decline. The decline may be due to drainage that flows in the vicinity that did not allow rain water into the well L4.

Fig. 3c shows the variation in water level in four bore wells namely L7, L8, L9, and L10. Bore well L7 shows a rise, whereas the other three show apparent decline. Bore well L8 shows a steady decline of 0.03 m over a period of 21 hr 29 m (from 21 st June 07, 11.24 AM to 22 nd June 07, 08.55 AM), while most of the other wells during this period show rise in water level. The other two bore wells L10 and L11 do not show any significant rise or fall in spite of rain. In brief, the bore wells L10 and L8 show fluctuation in water level that might be related to pumping. In principle, such fluctuations in water level can be modeled using stochastic methods to understand the change in sub-surface medium properties. But, it is worth mentioning that monitoring of water level during rain and its withdrawal by pumping is a difficult task to be performed by any signal processing technique, such as the widely used wavelet analysis (Kang and Lin 2007); hence we did not attempt for such detailed study, except for investigating the presence or absence of significant precursory signature that is the main goal of this study.

(iii) Monitoring of Soil Gas Helium (21 st , 24 th and 25 th June 2007)

Soil-helium surveys were carried out over the surface rupture zone along the three profiles 1, 2, and 3, along and either side of the bore well for helium. The profile 2 is shown in Fig. 2 and the other two profiles 1 and 3 on either side of the bore well, while not shown in figure for clarity in presentation, are located with 50 m spacing. Soil-gas data were sampled by drilling a metal probe to a depth of 1 m. The Alcatel Model ASM 100 T helium leak detector was used for soil-gas analysis. Helium concentration was measured to a precision of 0.02 ppm at 5 ppm level.

After the 1993 Latur earthquake, helium surveys were carried out in the vicinity of Latur in an area of 300 x 200 sq m, indicating elevated helium levels characterizing the surface ruptures (Rao et al. 1994; Reddy et al. 1994). In order to monitor the long-term changes in the helium field in an area, periodic measurements have been carried out in 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2005, and 2006. The results of the soil-gas helium monitoring, as shown in Table 2 , show that there is a rapid decline in the helium signal from 20,000 ppb (after the earthquake occurrence) to 2000 ppb during the period 1993-95 whereas the signal gradually declined thereafter. From the results of helium monitoring during 2005-2007, it is observed that the signal is further declined to around 400 ppb.

As a precursory element, these three soil-gas helium profiles 1, 2 and 3 ( Fig. 4 ) were conducted on 21 st , 24 th and 25 th June, 2007. Table-2 compares the helium values for the years 2005, 2006 and June 2007, showing almost the same values during the three-year period. Based on such constant helium value for a relatively long period of three years that can be inferred that the fault in the seismogenic part of the crust is dormant. There is a need to apply advanced tools and methods to operational forecasting techniques based on judicious computational processing that can be applied to remote monitoring of data (Dutta et al., 2012a-b; Dutta et al., 2013).

Summarizing the results of the three geophysical studies described above, we find no noticeable change in the precursors behavior related to the observed thermal anomaly. Accordingly, we suggest that the use of maximum possible numbers of precursor data correlation and interpretation is very useful to avoid the seismic hazards taking place in future.

Factors affecting measurements and signatures of precursor anomaly

As already mentioned, anomaly in air temperature is expected mostly from stress build-up induced by climate forcing (Buis 2019). Given their effects apply, although of relatively smaller magnitude as compared to tectonic stress build-up, our primary temperature observation at ~11 km height makes some sense to correlate with other geophysical phenomena even if they are not followed by a significant earthquake. Further tests are needed to confirm the false alarms and hence to better understand the earthquake processes with a deployment of long-term monitoring network of densely spaced stations in the investigated area.

Our observation period is too short to accurately distinguish precursory change. Also, given the environmental effects such as rainfall and pumping, long-term monitoring of air pressure change and trend in aquifer is mandatory for detection of tectonic signal. We also mention here that in addition to the build-up stress as mentioned earlier, fluids can also trigger the micro-seismicity. The presence of fluids in the source area of the 1993 Latur earthquake source area is evidenced from a set of geophysical measurements including gravity, magentotelluric, and seismic wave field measurements (Gupta et al. 1996), as well as the seismic tomographic images showing the low seismic wave speed and high conductivity (Mukhopadhyay et al. 2006). The fluid-dynamic effect on tectonic strain field and the related hydrologic phenomena like diffusivity, pore pressure dissipation, and precursory signals of hydrologic phenomena can be investigated using theory of poro-elasticity (Roeloffs 1996). Considering all these aspects, we can say that our study presents the first results which need further tests with a systematic long-term strategic approach, as a scope of future study.

Assuming the change in micro-seismicty induced by climate forcing is small, it is hard to know when a fault may be at the critical point subject to climatic processes alone, in agreement with the intermittent (irregular) nature of micro-seismicity on a regional scale (Padhy 2005). Thus, we are thus not in a position to say that climate processes could always trigger a large earthquake. The associated small changes in background micro-seismicity can effectively be detected by a high-resolution dense network of seismic stations with station spacing of the order of a few km to few tens of kilometers, which is unfortunately lacking now. They are certainly beyond the scope of this study, but could be thought of as long-term strategy for investigating small-scale precursor activities within a multi-disciplinary framework.

The findings of this study pave a way to think well beyond the influence of surface temperatures and conditions in the study of earthquakes that occurs intermittently, in the framework of the widely accepted LAIC. These climatic changes can release energy in sub-surface over time slowly, not necessarily following the mainshock/ aftershock pattern; they do not result in ground shaking like traditional earthquakes do. Several issues still need to be further examined to confirm or falsify the connection of the reported observations with the seismicity. Some of the problems are due to the inevitable limitation of the observational infrastructure at the recent time.

Conclusions

We investigated the observed rise in atmospheric temperature by more than 20 ° c at 11272 meters altitude above the Sholapur-Gulberga region, which is close to the 1993 Latur-Killari earthquake prone area of western India. Our primary conclusions show that following this thermal anomaly, there are no precursory signals, such as change in (i) seismicity, (ii) ground-water level, and (iii) release of helium gas observed in the study region. The anomaly could rather be attributed to formation and movement of severe local storm under low-level convergence and upper-level divergence, or to lightening oxygen getting converted into ozone as a potential absorber of UV light, or possibly the thermal sensor could not penetrate thick clouds during monsoon time to accurately retrieve the temperature. These findings suggest that conventional geophysical methods alone cannot explain the atmospheric temperature perturbations. A continuous monitoring of temperature over the region could resolve such short-lived temperature variations in upper atmosphere and its relation to the occurrence of major earthquakes. Studies of this kind involving conspicuous thermal anomaly over a limited spatial extent are very useful for better understanding of the atmosphere and terrestrial physics of spatial variation in temperature provided proper precursory validation can be made using advanced forecasting computation tools for analyzing remotely monitored data.

The findings of this study help us to think beyond the influence of surface temperatures and conditions in the study of earthquakes that occurs intermittently in the framework of the widely accepted lithosphere-atmosphere coupling. They may also aid in better understanding false alarm ratios and the overall physics of earthquake preparation. Finally they may provide constraint that earthquake detection based on measurements of these variables could potentially be of use in forecasting.

Abbreviations

NCEP: National Centers for Environmental Prediction; GPS: Global Positioning System; CSIR-NGRI: Council of Scientific and Industrial Research - National Geophysical Research Institute.

Declarations

Acknowledgements

We sincerely thank the editor Professor Kenji Satake and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. We acknowledge National Remote Sensing Agency (NRSA), Hyderabad; India Meteorological Department, New Delhi and National Atmospheric Research Laboratory (NARL), Tirupathi for sharing and fruitful discussion on data used in this study. Thanks are due to Drs. A. K. Bhatnagar, K. Radhakishnan, A. Saraf, and V. K. Anandan for fruitful discussions and their quick response in clarifying several queries related to this study. We thank Director, CSIR-NGRI for his kind permission to publish this work.

Authors’ contributions

VPD conceived, designed, supervised the experiment, and revised the text. SP analyzed the seismicity data and wrote the paper. NCM, VSS, SRK, and CS conducted field experiments on changes in ground water level and processed the data. GKR and GR conducted the heat flow studies and processed the data. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

This research is supported by the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research - National Geophysical Research Institute (CSIR-NGRI), and partly supported by the Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India, New Delhi.

Availability of data and materials

Data supporting the conclusions can be made available on reasonable request to the Director, CSIR-NGRI ( [email protected] ) and the corresponding author.

Competing interests

The authors declare they have no competing interests.

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Table 1 Temperature versus height displayed on the airline flight Mumbai-Hyderabad on 18 th June 2007. Star (*) indicates descending height with temperature before landing at airport Hyderabad where surface temperature was 29 º c.

_________________________________________________________

Serial No. Height (m) Temperature ( º c) Approx. Location

1 11272 -17 Sholapur

2 11272 -17 Gulberga

3 9740 -9 *

4 7400 5 *

5 7200 6 *

6 5585 12 *

7 4500 17 *

8 3500 21 *

__________________________________________________________

Table 2 Soil-gas helium concentrations. Data are observed over a, profile-1, b, profile-2 and 3 in the rupture zone of Latur earthquake near Killari during the period 2005-07 which remain almost same. Location of profile 2 is shown in Fig. 4 and profiles 1 and 3 are on either side of profile 2; 50 m apart.

dd/mm/yyyy dd/mm/yyyy dd/mm/yyyy dd/mm/yyyy dd/mm/yyyy

10/02/2005 13/10/2006 21/06/2007 24/06/2007 24 & 25/06/2007

Profile 1 Profile 1 Profile 1 Profile 2 Profile 3

_____________________________________________________________________

Dist. He Dist. He Dist. He Dist. He Dist. He

(m) (ppb) (m) (ppb) (m) (ppb) (m) (ppb) (m) (ppb)

0 60 0 20 0 150 0 0 0 30

12 60 10 190 10 50 10 30 10 30

20 70 20 110 20 170 20 100

27 90 30 320 30 130 30 100 30 30

37 90 40 20 40 160 40 100 40 160

52 320 50 270 50 240 50 100 50 200

60 210 60 450 60 60 60 160

67 170 70 470 70 110 70 30 70

82 440 80 70 80 30 80 30 80 70

90 50 90 300 90 90 90 130

97 260 100 50 100 280 100 160 100 160

112 150 110 0 110 140 110 90 110 130

120 50 120 110 120 150 120 60

130 50 130 80 130 120 130 60

142 290 140 80 140 60 140 0 140 100

150 50 150 80 150 100 150 100

157 270 160 160 160 110 160 50 160 210

170 130 170 0 170 110 170 140

180 0 180 80 175 210

187 0 190 0 190 160 180 100

202 80 200 140 200 180 185 140

217 0 210 50 210 150 190 140

220 0 220 80 195 100

232 0 230 0 200 110

205 110

247 0 210 100

Susmit's Asian Studies Blog

Sunday, december 2, 2007.

Case Study: Latur Earthquake of 1993

The Latur, India earthquake was the most destructive earthquake in 1993. It occurred on September 30, 1993 . The main reason for its lethality was the fact that it occurred at 3:45 AM , while the entire area was indoors and asleep. The earthquake struck in Southeastern India , in the state of Maharashtra . The two districts which were decimated by the earthquake were the districts of Osmanabad and Latur. The coordinates of the earthquake’s epicenter were N18.07 and E76.62 .(www.timesrelieffund.com) This was very close to Latur, and consequently, it suffered the most damage. The earthquake measured 6.45 on the richter scale, with its focal point 12 meters beneath the surface. Unlike the Latur earthquake, most earthquakes occur along fault lines, where two plates meet. (www.cessind.org)

The Latur earthquake was one of a very rare type of earthquakes. It was what is referred to as a SCR, or a stable continental region earthquake. Most earthquakes are a result of interaction between two plates, whether they be sliding, colliding, or forming a subduction zone. (http://earthquake.usgs.gov)However, in this instance, the cause is very complicated. The Latur earthquake was an intraplate earthquake, or it occurred in the middle of a plate, as opposed to a plate boundary. The earthquake’s epicenter was very far from any fault line. The cause of this earthquake is still in speculation. Some scientists claim that it was a result of the force released from the continuous crumpling of the Indian plate against the Eurasian plate. Others claim that it was a consequence of the pressure built up as a result of the reservoir construction on the river Terna. The theory which most scientists agree on is that the many leniaments, or mini faults within plates, in that region contributed to the build up of pressure and its consequent release.(www.swaminarayan.org)

Who and what regions were affected? Why do people live in hazard prone regions?

The remains of a 10,000 litre water tank

There were several short term and long term effects of the earthquakes. The most tragic effect was that around 30, 000 people died due to the primary and secondary hazards caused by the earthquake. The effects of this earthquake were accentuated, as the region had problems with structurally unsound buildings and the earthquake occurred at night while everyone was sleeping, giving the people less time to react.(www.swaminarayan.org) Around 30,000 people died during the seismic shaking. The remaining 20,000 were wiped out by the liquefaction that has already been mentioned. The hardest hit villages were those of the Latur and Osmanabad districts. The long term effect was that the area has still not been able to completely recover from the calamity. The earthquake has left one good mark on India . In the aftermath of the earthquake, the Indian government diverted more funding into earthquake research. Also, more earthquake monitoring centers have now been made. (http://en.wikipedia.org)Since, India is an LEDC, it has taken a much longer period of time for the region to recover completely from the catastrophe. (www.swaminarayan.org)In LEDCs, the recovery period is generally longer than in a MEDC. Also, the amount of deaths would have been lower as the engineering firms of an MEDC would have built the house foundations on bedrock, instead of having shallow foundations in soft soil. Finally, there would have been a host of building techniques in MEDC that would have cut the number of dead by two thirds, for example, the use of rubber shock absorbers and steel girders to prevent the snapping of columns and support structures.(www.timesrelieffund.com)

9 comments:

very nice and informtive article.. trows a lot of light on the devasting earthquake and its facts.. Keep it coming dude..

One question: Have you published this case study as some academic project or you had an individual research on this..?

Thanks man, Thanks for the interest. Yea, this was an academic project for my tenth grade class on the natural disaster unit. Man, I hope my teacher likes it. Susmit

this was very useful information to write my dissertation.thanks...!!!

good job bro..!!!

thnkzz...i needed it 4 my project...:)

Nice Article...

Very helpful for Geography A2 student, much appreciated, keep it coming my friend

How i become the part of research such formula required super computer 💻 access so how ww get super computer access 🕉🕉🕉

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This Day In History Sept - 30

Latur Earthquake - [September 30, 1993] This Day in History

30 September 1993

The Latur Earthquake

What happened?

At 3:56 AM on 30 September 1993, a devastating earthquake struck Maharashtra chiefly affecting the districts of Latur and Osmanabad. Around 8000 people died and a further 16,000 were injured.

Latur Earthquake

The 1993 Latur Earthquake, as this earthquake is called, affected the Maharashtra districts of Latur and Osmanabad including the Ausa block in Latur and Omerga in Osmanabad.
The earthquake’s epicentre was in Killari , Latur District. Even today, the large crater can be seen at Killari.
The earthquake measured 6.4 on the Richter scale and was classified as ‘Severe’.
The earthquake’s hypocentre was about 10 km deep . Being relatively shallow, the shock waves caused more damage.
There were three aftershocks on the same day.
Cause: Killari does not locate on a plate boundary. So, the cause of the earthquake was a matter of debate. Some say it was due to the existence of fault webs. Pressure released along the fault lines may have caused the earthquake. Pressure might have been released because of the subcontinent crumpling as it pushes against Asia. Another suggestion was that a reservoir construction along the River Terna might have increased the pressure along the fault lines.
Scientists suggest that the earthquake is an example of fault reactivation in the Precambrian crust.
This has been Maharashtra’s deadliest earthquake till date.
The earthquake caused extensive damage to life and property.
Official toll :
7928 people killed
16,000 people injured
15,854 livestock killed
52 villages destroyed completely
30,000 houses collapsed completely
27,000 houses suffered damages to all amenities and infrastructure
2,11,000 houses in 13 districts damaged to varying degrees
Destruction in Latur which bore the brunt of the earthquake:
3,670 people killed
446 handicapped
37 villages destroyed completely
728 villages destroyed partially
1,27,000 families affected

Relief work

The government, the Indian Army, Central Reserve Police Force, State Reserve Police Force and other law enforcement agencies rushed their personnel immediately after the tragedy.
The Maharashtra government took the help of the Central government and organisations like the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, etc.
Temporary sheds were provided for the affected people. Basic necessities like food, clothing, medical aid, utensils, etc. were received from all over the country and from abroad also.
Many villagers provided land voluntarily for the rehabilitation of the affected villages.
Houses were constructed by the government under the Rehabilitation Policy which was devised within 6 months of the event.
Monetary compensation was also given by the government.
Other rehabilitation work included the giving of cattle to villagers, paying off the loans of the affected shopkeepers, artisans provided tools for work, agricultural supplements provided to farmers, repairing of wells, etc.

1687 : Aurangzeb acquired the Golconda Fort from Qutb Shahi Sultan Tana Shah. 1943 : Death of Ramananda Chatterjee, who has been described as the ‘Father of Indian Journalism’. 1996 : Madras city renamed Chennai.

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1993 Latur earthquake
The 1993 Latur earthquake struck India at 3:56 am local time on 30 September.The main area affected is the districts of Latur and Osmanabad, including the Ausa block of Latur and Omerga of Osmanabad in Maharashtra, Western India. [7] Fifty-two villages were demolished in the intraplate earthquake.It measured 6.2 on the moment magnitude scale, and approximately 10,000 people died, [8] whilst ...
An investigation into the Latur earthquake of September 29, 1993 in
PDF | The devastating (Mw 6.2) Latur earthquake of September 29, 1993 in South India has claimed an estimated 11.000 human lives. ... We did case studies for three major earthquakes in the last ...
Latur Earthquake
ber 30, 1993, by shaking caused by the Latur earthquake. The earthquake which has been described as "death at dawn", occurred in five spells lasting over two minutes between 3.56 a.m. and 7.45 a.m., with its epicentre SSE of Latur in Maharashtra. The event affected mainly Latur and Osmanabad dis-tricts of Maharashtra and the bordering districts of
An investigation into the Latur earthquake of September 29, 1993 in
The devastating (M w 6.2) Latur earthquake of September 29, 1993 in South India has claimed an estimated 11.000 human lives.With an I max of VIII, the earthquake was felt to an average distance of 750 km. More than 125 shocks were reported to have been felt during August 1992-March 1993. Out of these, during October-November 1992, several shocks of M ≥ 2.0 were recorded at the NGRI ...
Killari (Latur) 1993
The Killari (Latur) earthquake of September 30, 1993 (Mw 6.3) that ruptured the surface of the Deccan Plateau was a surprising event in a continental interior region, quite far from the plate boundaries. In some papers, this earthquake is named after Latur, the town nearest to the affected area, but here it is named the Killari earthquake ...
Killari (Latur) 1993
The Killari (Latur) earthquake of September 30, 1993 (M w 6.3) that ruptured the surface of the Deccan Plateau was a surprising event in a continental interior region, quite far from the plate boundaries. In some papers, this earthquake is named after Latur, the town nearest to the affected area, but here it is named the Killari earthquake, after the village where its epicenter was located ...
An investigation into the Latur earthquake of September 29, 1993 in
ELSEVIER Tectonophysics 287 ( 1998) 299-3 I8 An investigation into the Latur earthquake of September 29, 1993 in southern India Harsh K. Gupta *, B.K. Rastogi, Indra Mohan, C.V.R.K. Rao, S.V.S. Sarma, R.U.M. Rao National Geoph?sical Research Institute, HTderahad-500007, India Received IO July 1996: accepted 22 August 1997 Abstract The devastating (M, 6.2) Latur earthquake of September 29, 1993 ...
An investigation into the Latur earthquake of September 29, 1993 in
The devastating (M w 6.2) Latur earthquake of September 29, 1993 in South India has claimed an estimated 11.000 human lives. With an I max of VIII, the earthquake was felt to an average distance of 750 km. More than 125 shocks were reported to have been felt during August 1992-March 1993. ... In the case of CITZ, seismological studies have ...
of the 1993 Killari (Latur) earthquake
1993 earthquake. The Killari earthquake (mb = 6.3) of 30 September 1993 occurred in a part of the stable continental shield of peninsular India (Figure 1), and is one of the most damaging and rare midplate earthquakes in history. A common global feature of the intracratonic seismicity is that they do not seem to exhibit well-defined spatial
PDF An investigation into the Latur earthquake of September 29, 1993 in
Thedevastating (M, 6.2) Latur earthquake of September 29,1993 inSouth India h sclaimed an estimated 11,000 human lives. Withan I,,, of VIII, the arthquake was felt to an average distance of750 km ...
PDF The September 29, 1993, M6.4 Killari, Maharashtra Earthquake in ...
00:03:53 local time, September 30, 1993 (22:25:53 GMT, September 29); Ma= 6.4; Mb= 6.3; Mw= 6.1; centroid depth = 5km; moment tensor solution yields an almost pure thrust with quasi-horizontal P axis striking N31° E. Main Shock Effects. Widespread death and destruction in the districts of Latur and Osmanabad, Maharashtra state; complete ...
Effects of Killari earthquake on the paleo-channel of Tirna ...
The Killari Earthquake (Moment magnitude 6.1) of September 30, 1993, occurred in the state of Maharashtra, India, has an epicenter (18°03′ N, 76°33′ E) located at ~ 40 km SSW of Killari Town.
National Information Centre of Earthquake Engineering
An earthquake of magnitude 6.4 on the Richter scale struck the Maharashtra region of India on September 30, 1993. Over 8,000 people were killed, 16,000 injured, over one million left homeless. Sixty-seven villages were completely destroyed, with extensive damage reported in another 1,300 villages in the Latur and Osmanabad districts.
The 1993 Killari (Latur), central India, earthquake: An example of
The 1993 Killari (Latur), central India, earthquake: An example of fault reactivation in the Precambrian crust C. P. Rajendran Kusala Rajendran Biju John Centre for Earth Science Studies, Trivandrum 695031, India ABSTRACT The September 30, 1993, Killari event in central India is a rare incidence of an earthquake occurring within a Precambrian craton.
The observed thermal anomaly as an earthquake Precursor: A case study
The observed thermal anomaly as an earthquake Precursor: A case study from the 1993 Latur earthquake prone area in Western India. Vijay P Dimri, Simanchal Padhy, N C Mondal, G K Reddy, G G. Ramacharyulu, and 3 more. ... After the 1993 Latur earthquake, helium surveys were carried out in the vicinity of Latur in an area of 300 x 200 sq m ...
Lessons from Latur
Lessons from Latur: A Decade after the Earthquake. of change that have begun to blow. Among a full-fledged debate on the issue of border km away from the old site, and is 'the the various issues raised in the speech with settlement among different sections of largest rehabilitated settlement in the Latur- regard to the border imbroglio with ...
Latur earthquake: Black september night was watershed moment ...
28 years ago one of the most devastating earthquakes struck India's Maharashtra. On September 30, 1993, Killari-Latur earthquake jolted thousands of people a...
Case Study: Latur Earthquake of 1993
The Latur, India earthquake was the most destructive earthquake in 1993. It occurred on September 30, 1993. The main reason for its lethality was the fact that it occurred at 3:45 AM, while the entire area was indoors and asleep. The earthquake struck in Southeastern India, in the state of Maharashtra. The two districts which were decimated by ...
1993 Latur Earthquake
The document summarizes information about four major earthquakes that struck India and Nepal between 1993 and 2015. The 1993 Latur earthquake in India's Maharashtra state killed over 10,000 people and injured 30,000. In 2001, the Gujarat earthquake in western India reached a magnitude of 7.7 and caused between 13,805 and 20,023 deaths. The 2005 Kashmir earthquake had a magnitude of 7.6 and was ...
Latur Earthquake
The 1993 Latur Earthquake, as this earthquake is called, affected the Maharashtra districts of Latur and Osmanabad including the Ausa block in Latur and Omerga in Osmanabad. The earthquake's epicentre was in Killari, Latur District. Even today, the large crater can be seen at Killari. The earthquake measured 6.4 on the Richter scale and was ...
Case Study
case study - Free download as Word Doc (.doc / .docx), PDF File (.pdf), Text File (.txt) or read online for free. The 1993 Killari earthquake in central India caused widespread death and destruction, with over 10,000 fatalities. The magnitude 6.4 earthquake was centered near the village of Killari and ruptured the surface, forming discontinuous scarps along a 1km west-northwest zone.

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Effects of Killari earthquake on the paleo-channel of Tirna River Basin from Central India using anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility

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