international journal of management and social science research review

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Title proper: International journal of management and social science research review.

Abbreviated key-title: Int. j. manag. soc. sci. res. rev. (Online)

Original alphabet of title: Basic roman

Subject: UDC : 005+3

Subject: SCIENCE AND KNOWLEDGE. ORGANIZATION. COMPUTER SCIENCE. INFORMATION. DOCUMENTATION. LIBRARIANSHIP. INSTITUTIONS. PUBLICATIONS

Subject: SOCIAL SCIENCES

Subject: Management

Publisher: Bangalore: SLAA Publications

Dates of publication: 2014- 9999

Frequency: Monthly

Type of resource: Periodical

Language: English

Country: India

Medium: Online

Indexed by: SUDOC

Indexed by: ROAD

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Type of record: Confirmed

Last modification date: 29/05/2023

ISSN Center responsible of the record: ISSN National Centre for India Please contact this ISSN Centre by clicking on it for any request or query concerning the publication

Record creation date: 28/07/2014

Original ISSN Centre: ISSN National Centre for India

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International Journal of Management and Social Sciences (IJMSS)

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT AND SOCIAL SCIENCES (IJMSS)

A Peer Reviewed Journal

UGC id: 63251 ( June2019 ) , Index Copernicus id: 39870[ICV: 91.66] (2019 ) ,  p-ISSN 2249 0191 :: e-ISSN 2349 9761

International Journal of Management and Social Sciences (IJMSS) is a double blind, peer reviewed / refereed, bi-annual, interdisciplinary journal of SPEAK Foundation.

Philosophy of IJMSS guides it to map new frontiers in emerging and developing areas in research, industry and governance as well as to link with centers of excellence worldwide to stimulate young minds for creating knowledge based community.

We see the need for synergy and collaboration between these fields rather than segmentation and isolation. Hence, our objectives are to build new links, networks and collaborations between communities of thinkers, scholars, managerial experts and practioners in order to stimulate and enhance creative and application-oriented solutions for society.

Our continued success lies in bringing together and establishing channels of communication between leading policy-makers and prominent experts in industry, commerce and related business as well as renowned academic, education and research based institutions to provide solutions for addressing the key issues of the contemporary society.

In order to foster and promote innovative thinking in the management and social sciences, The SPEAK Foundation prides itself by introducing its Journal at global platform in ensuring the high quality and professional research standards.

International Journal of Management and Social Sciences (IJMSS) is a bi-annual, reviewed, interdisciplinary journal of SPEAK Foundation. IJMSS focuses on integrating theory, research and practice in the area of management and social sciences. It aspires to bring academicians, researchers, industry people and practitioners together.

Global in scope and authorship, International Journal of Management and Social Sciences (IJMSS) bridges the gap across disciplines and continents with a view of sharing information and to provide a platform for debate with the widest possible audience, researchers, academicians and managers. The IJMSS has a particular interest in trans-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches focusing on the issues relevant in contemporary world. It serves as a forum for review, reflection and discussion informed by the results of recent and ongoing research.

The journal discusses the distinctive disciplinary practices within the sciences of the management and social  field and examines examples of these practices. In order to define and exemplify disciplinarity, the journal fosters dialogue ranging from the broad and speculative to the microcosmic and empirical. In considering the varied interdisciplinary, trans-disciplinary or multidisciplinary work across and between the social, natural and applied sciences, the journal showcases interdisciplinary practices in action. The focus of papers ranges from the finely grained and empirical, to wide-ranging multi-disciplinary and transdisciplinary practices, to perspectives on knowledge and method.

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(June2019) ,  , Editor - Dr. Hitesh Gupta :  SPEAK Foundation, Delhi, India International Journal of Management and Social Sciences (IJMSS) is a double blind, peer reviewed, bi-annual, interdisciplinary journal of SPEAK Foundation. IJMSS focuses on integrating theory, research and practice in the area of management and social sciences. It aspires to bring academicians, researchers, industrial community, entrepreneurs and development practitioners together. Global in scope and authorship, International Journal of Management and Social Sciences (IJMSS) bridges the gap across social science communities vis a vis its multiple disciplines with a view of sharing information and to provide a platform for debate with the widest possible audience, researchers, academicians and managerial experts. The IJMSS has a particular interest in trans-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches focusing on the issues relevant in contemporary world. It serves as a forum for review, reflection and discussion informed by the results of recent and ongoing research. The Journal accepts original empirical . Contributions rooted in the Indian or International context and reflecting the ethos of Management and Social Sciences are encouraged.
Posted: 2020-01-31

Vol 12, No 2 (2023): IJMSS - JANUARY 12(2) 2023

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Each manuscript must be accompanied by a statement that it has been neither published nor submitted for publication, in whole or in part, either in a serial, professional journal or as a part in a book which is formally published and made available to the public. For the mutual benefit and protection of authors and publishers it is necessary that authors provide formal written consent to publish and transfer of copyright  “   Copyright form "  before publication of the work.  

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Are You Making Yourself Retirement Ready – A Study of Salaried Individuals?

International Journal of Management and Social Science Research Review, Vol-1, Issue-43, January-2018

7 Pages Posted: 6 Nov 2019

Suyog Chachad

Indira School of Business Studies (ISBS)

Komal Singh

Indira School of Business Studies, Pune

Date Written: January 1, 2018

This research focuses on the need and importance of retirement planning. There are considerable changes in the saving and investment behaviour of individuals in India over the last couple of years. We do save and invest for rainy days, but have not actually give due importance to the retirement focussed plans. Retirement planning is essential part of Financial Planning of an individual. The awareness about retirement planning is must for every single individual. The research paper highlights the behaviour pattern of salaried individuals towards retirement planning. To do so, paper seeks to evaluate awareness of 130 working individuals towards investment approach for retirement. The result of the survey will test the awareness level and behaviour towards investment pattern for retirement planning.

Keywords: Retirement, Planning, Investment, Investment Products, Inflation

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Indira School of Business Studies (ISBS) ( email )

89/2-A Tathawade New Mumbai Pune Highway Pune, Maharashtra 411033 India

Komal Singh (Contact Author)

Indira school of business studies, pune ( email ).

Abhinavan-ISBS, S. no. 89/2A Thatawade Pune, MA 411033 India

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International Journal of Management

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The SJR is a size-independent prestige indicator that ranks journals by their 'average prestige per article'. It is based on the idea that 'all citations are not created equal'. SJR is a measure of scientific influence of journals that accounts for both the number of citations received by a journal and the importance or prestige of the journals where such citations come from It measures the scientific influence of the average article in a journal, it expresses how central to the global scientific discussion an average article of the journal is.

Year	SJR

Evolution of the number of published documents. All types of documents are considered, including citable and non citable documents.

Year	Documents
2019	108
2020	291

This indicator counts the number of citations received by documents from a journal and divides them by the total number of documents published in that journal. The chart shows the evolution of the average number of times documents published in a journal in the past two, three and four years have been cited in the current year. The two years line is equivalent to journal impact factor ™ (Thomson Reuters) metric.

Cites per document	Year	Value
Cites / Doc. (4 years)	2019	0.000
Cites / Doc. (4 years)	2020	0.398
Cites / Doc. (3 years)	2019	0.000
Cites / Doc. (3 years)	2020	0.398
Cites / Doc. (2 years)	2019	0.000
Cites / Doc. (2 years)	2020	0.398

Evolution of the total number of citations and journal's self-citations received by a journal's published documents during the three previous years. Journal Self-citation is defined as the number of citation from a journal citing article to articles published by the same journal.

Cites	Year	Value
Self Cites	2019	0
Self Cites	2020	12
Total Cites	2019	0
Total Cites	2020	43

Evolution of the number of total citation per document and external citation per document (i.e. journal self-citations removed) received by a journal's published documents during the three previous years. External citations are calculated by subtracting the number of self-citations from the total number of citations received by the journal’s documents.

Cites	Year	Value
External Cites per document	2019	0
External Cites per document	2020	0.287
Cites per document	2019	0.000
Cites per document	2020	0.398

International Collaboration accounts for the articles that have been produced by researchers from several countries. The chart shows the ratio of a journal's documents signed by researchers from more than one country; that is including more than one country address.

Year	International Collaboration
2019	1.85
2020	4.81

Not every article in a journal is considered primary research and therefore "citable", this chart shows the ratio of a journal's articles including substantial research (research articles, conference papers and reviews) in three year windows vs. those documents other than research articles, reviews and conference papers.

Documents	Year	Value
Non-citable documents	2019	0
Non-citable documents	2020	0
Citable documents	2019	0
Citable documents	2020	108

Ratio of a journal's items, grouped in three years windows, that have been cited at least once vs. those not cited during the following year.

Documents	Year	Value
Uncited documents	2019	0
Uncited documents	2020	75
Cited documents	2019	0
Cited documents	2020	33

Evolution of the percentage of female authors.

Year	Female Percent
2019	38.56
2020	57.71

Evolution of the number of documents cited by public policy documents according to Overton database.

Documents	Year	Value
Overton	2019	0
Overton	2020	0

Evoution of the number of documents related to Sustainable Development Goals defined by United Nations. Available from 2018 onwards.

Documents	Year	Value
SDG	2019	35
SDG	2020	110

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The journal regularly reviews the works on management, developmental studies, economics, businesses, entrepreneurship, developmental psychology, cultural studies besides other sub-disciplines of social sciences.

ISSN 2455-2267 | DOI 10.21013/jmss OCLC No. 950042020 | ZDB No. 2855909-5 Publication Frequency: Quarterly

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International Journal of Management studies and Social Science Research

Issn: 2582-0265.

Call for Academic Papers\ Call for Research Papers: - 2024 volume 6 issue 4 - July - August:- International Journal of Management Studies and Social Science Research [IJMSSSR]

International Journal of Management Studies and Social Science Research (IJMSSSR) is a double-blind peer-reviewed, open-access bi-monthly journal that publishes empirical, conceptual and review papers of exceptional quality that contribute to enrich business administration thinking .The objective of the Journal is to disseminate knowledge, which ensures good practice of professional management and its focal point is on research and reflections relevant to academicians and practicing managers/Administrators for sustainable business and social changes.

IJMSSSR guides it to map new frontiers in emerging and developing areas in research, industry, and governance as well as to link with centers of excellence worldwide to stimulate young minds for creating knowledge-based community.

Our continued success lies in bringing together and establishing channels of communication between leading policy-makers and prominent experts in industry, commerce, and related business as well as renowned academic, education and research-based institutions to provide solutions for addressing the key issues of the contemporary society.

We see the need for synergy and collaboration between these fields rather than segmentation and isolation. Hence, our objectives are to build new links, networks, and collaborations between communities of thinkers, scholars, managerial experts, and practitioners in order to stimulate and enhance creative and application-oriented solutions for society.

In order to foster and promote innovative thinking in the management studies and social sciences research, itself by introducing its Journal at a global platform in ensuring the high quality and professional research standards.

Recently Published Articles

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	DOI: https://doi.org/10.56293/IJMSSSR.2024.5101 The main focus of this article is to examine the relationship between financial investment in marketing and the performance of non-financial listed companies in China over the period from 2007 to 2019. The research utilizes correlation analysis and panel data collection to investigate this relationship among a sample of 32,442 companies. The study employs regression equation models for analysis. The research explores how financial investment in marketing impacts a company's overall performance, as measured through the Tobin's Q ratio. It considers various variables, including endogenous and control variables. The control variables include company size, debt ratio, and the length of rigor, which are observed to assess the performance of the companies. The primary focus of the study is on non-financial listed companies in China. The findings of the research indicate that after incorporating marketing investment (MI), there is a deferred effect on the company's performance, which becomes evident in the third year. This suggests that financial investments in marketing have a positive and significant impact on corporate performance, particularly after three years of implementation. In summary, this article investigates the relationship between marketing investment and company performance in non-financial listed companies in China, emphasizing the delayed effects of marketing investments on a company's overall performance, which become more pronounced in the third year following the investment. Time Series Analysis Methods, ductility, corporate performance, marketing strength Download full manuscript.......
	DOI: https://doi.org/10.56293/IJMSSSR.2024.5102 Fruits and vegetables (FV) are crucial for a healthy diet. The World Health Organization (WHO) suggests that adults should consume at least five (5) servings of fruits and vegetables daily. This study aims to identify the factors that impact of fruit and vegetable intake among adults in Malaysia and Asian countries. The conceptual framework for this study is based on the Social Cognitive Theory by Bandura, which serves as the foundation of our approach to understanding personal, behavioural, and environmental factors that influence the consumption of FV. The researchers selected articles published between 2000 and 2020 using various databases such as PubMed/Medline, Scopus, Elsevier/EMBASE, Google Scholar, Cochrane Library, and grey literature. They included a total of 21 studies and summarized the existing evidence for each identified factor across the different levels. The study found that high prices, parental control, and family influence are the primary factors that impact the fruit and vegetable intake. Lack of access and limited options for FV in residential areas and workplaces also negatively impact FV consumption. The study concluded that environmental factors are the most important, followed by personal and behavioural factors in influencing FV eating behaviour. This scoping review provides valuable information from various studies. Affecting, fruit, vegetables, adults, intake Download full manuscript.......
	DOI: https://doi.org/10.56293/IJMSSSR.2024.5103 This study examined the effect of non-compliance with Central Banks regulations on the sustainability of Microfinance Banks in Nigeria. Ex-post facto research design was adopted to define the structure and strategy of the study, while the target population was all the Microfinance banks license by Central Bank to operate in Nigeria as at 31st December, 2023 which were 20 in number. Out of the 20 banks 14 were purposively chosen based on their complete annual reports and accounts over the period of the study (2019-2023). Panel regression analysis was used to analyze the collected data, and the results shows a positive and significant effect of capital adequacy requirement, liquidity ratio requirement, and cash reserve requirement on returns on assets of the banks. However, unsecured lending limit revealed a negative but significant effect on returns on assets of the banks. Therefore, the study concluded that: non-compliance with the Central Banks Regulations has significant effect on the sustainability of licensed Microfinance banks in Nigeria. This signifies that, having adequate capital funds, maintaining an appropriate liquidity position with sufficient cash reserve invested in Treasury bill as required by Central Bank would improve banks profitability, thus guarantee sustainability of Microfinance banks. Therefore, this study recommends that; the management of licensed Microfinance banks in Nigeria should maintain capital funds adequacy of not less than ten percent of capital to risk weighted assets ratio, and also maintain adequate liquidity in turn of not less than twenty percent of depositors’ amount, while investing not less than five percent of total deposit in treasury bills. Furthermore, the banks should pay adequate attention on unsecured loans by not giving out unsecured loan facility of more than fifty thousand Naira. Doing these would help to improve banks profitability and subsequently guarantee banks sustainability. Central banks regulation, Microfinance Bank, Sustainability, Nigeria Download full manuscript.......

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Hello author, we are happy to announce that we have prepare automated process now you can check the status of your paper right from the website instead of email us. we would request you please visit : www.ijmsssr.org now we started online paper submission we invites to all author please submit your paper through website for faster review process. submit paper online.

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Public Debt and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

• Callistus Tabansi Okeke
• Chinwe Ann Anisiobi
• Chinwe Monica Madueke
• Apr 13, 2023

Public Debt and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from  Nigeria

Callistus Tabansi Okeke, Chinwe Ann Anisiobi and Chinwe Monica Madueke Department of Economics, Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka, Nigeria

DOI: https://doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2023.7309

Received: 26 January 2023; Revised: 31 January 2023; Accepted: 02 February 2023; Published: 13 April 2023

This study examined the impact of public debt on economic growth in Nigeria using annual secondary data from 1981 to 2021 and the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag technique. The variables used in the study were real gross domestic product (RGDP), which is the proxy for economic growth, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), external debt (EXDT), exchange rate (EXCR), domestic debt (DODT) and debt service repayment (DSRT). The results of the findings show that the past value of RGDP, GFCF, EXDT and DSRT have positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Also, EXCR and DODT have negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Judging from the p values, the lagged value of RGDP, GFCF, EXDT and DSRT are statistically significant as their p values are lower than critical values at 5 percent level of significance, while EXCR and DODT have no significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Based on the findings, the study recommends that government should formulate and effectively implement policy that would boost domestic revenue generation by broadening the revenue base, improving capacity to tax and curtailing ineffective government spending. Also, borrowed funds should be utilized for the diversification of the productive base of the economy.

Keywords: ARDL, Domestic debt , External debt, Nigeria, Public debt

JEL Classification: H60, H63, C20

INTRODUCTION

Public debt is an important instrument for governments to fund public spending, particularly when it is difficult to raise taxes and reduce public expenditure. For many years, this process has left most governments with huge debt burden. Borrowings to finance capital infrastructural development are the solution to faster economic growth (Ogunjimi, 2019). But excess borrowings without appropriate planning for investment may lead to heavy debt burden and interest payment, which in turn may create several undesirable effects for the economy (Joy & Panda, 2020). Public debt is a financial incentive but when its buildup gets to a very substantial level, a reasonable proportion of government expenditure and foreign exchange earnings will be used to repay the debt with a high opportunity cost for upcoming generations.

Public debt could be either internal (domestic) or external (foreign). Adofu and Abula (2010), defined domestic debt as debt instruments issued by the Federal Government and denominated in local currency. As stated by Todaro and Smith (2011), external debt is the total private and public foreign debt owed by a country. Ajie, Akekere and Ewubare (2014), defined external debt as an unpaid portion of external resources acquired for developmental purposes and balance of payments support, which could not be repaid when they fell due. In other words, external debts are debts owed by a country to institutions of countries abroad, that is, the creditors are foreigners, which in case its servicing and repayment will mean a drainage of national resources in favour of those foreigners.

Some conventional economists states that public debt has a positive effect on economic growth in the short-run by stimulating effective demand and output. However, theoretical literature continues to point to a negative debt-growth relation in the long run by crowding out private investment. Public debt can crowd-out private investment and threaten economic growth through higher long-term interest rates, higher inflation, and higher future distortionary taxation (Mhlaba Phiri  & Nsiah, 2019) . The increasing debt burden of Nigeria is pointing toward another debt crisis. It is evident that unsustainable public debt is discouraging investment and lowering growth in Nigeria, thereby reducing the country’s global competitiveness, and increasing financial market susceptibility to international shocks (Ogbonna, Ibenta, Chris-Ejiogu, &Atsanan, 2019). Moreover, debt sustainability can be explained using either debt to GDP or debt service to revenue ratio. Nigeria’s debt to GDP ratio is estimated at about 35.71%, one of the lowest in the world and much below what is obtainable in most emerging markets (DMO, 2021). For now, debt-to-GDP is not regarded as the best indicator of debt sustainability, especially in a country like Nigeria that has one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratio (6.1%) in the world (DMO,2021). According to IMF (2021), a better indicator of debt sustainability is the debt service-to-revenue ratio, which is estimated at 86%, a metric that reveals whether the government is generating enough revenues to pay down its debts as they mature. The debt service to revenue ratio which in Nigeria has in recent years risen to worrying levels, leading investigators to ask if the country is broke or heading to insolvency.

Nigeria’s public debt hit N38.005 trillion by third quarter of 2021. The government spent about 4.2 trillion Naira on debt servicing in 2021, out of total revenue of N5.51 trillion. The rising debt profile of Nigeria reached a new milestone with the country’s debt service as a percentage of revenue rising to 76.2% in 2021(NBS,2021). This shows that 76.2% of the revenue generated in 2021 was used for debt servicing. The government constant borrowing from the domestic market limits the private businesses from assessing funding for business growth and development (Ogunjimi, 2019). When a country spends significant parts of its revenue on servicing huge debts, it has very little left to fund critical infrastructures which in turn affect growth negatively. Furthermore, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) 2019 Poverty and Inequality report in Nigeria indicated that 40.09% of the total population lives below the country’s poverty line showing the low levels of opulence in Nigeria. Over the years, the governments of Nigeria have enunciated several debt management approaches to reduce the burden of foreign debt on the economy and ensure sufficient economic growth and development. Such approaches include rescheduling the debt, debt conversion or liquidation. Available evidence revealed that the various strategies used in managing Nigeria’s public debt have not achieved their desired objectives.

Even with the declining revenue, recurrent expenditure of the government has been high and aligned with financial expectations while capital expenditure continues to decline over the years. The decrease in Nigeria’s revenue brings about doubt if Nigeria is financially competent or not. It raises questions regarding the country, if the nation is facing a revenue problem or a debt problem? With the growing insecurity and induced recession in the economy, government revenues, in particular, non-oil revenues could remain low for a longer period. This means the government will still need to rely on borrowing to fund its operations, putting more pressure on Nigeria’s debt service to revenue ratio.

Nigeria is a preference for this study because of the rapid increase in government debt, declining revenue generation and the decrease in the nation’s foreign reserve.  The conflict between increase in government debt and debt service payment surrounded by low growth rate in Nigeria is of particular interest to researchers and policy makers. This inspired this study to investigate the long run and short run impact of the accelerating public debt on Nigeria’s economic growth. The findings of this study would have direct policy implications, especially on government fiscal measures and investment decisions.  The results are expected to guide policymakers in the design of an effective public debt strategy that is conducive for Nigeria’s economic growth. The remaining parts of this paper were structured into literature review, methodology, results and discussion, as well as conclusion and recommendations.

REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

Public debt in Nigeria has hindered growth and development, including worsening social issues. Nigeria’s expected debt service is seen to be increasing function of her output and as such resources that are to be used for developing the economy are indirectly taxed away by foreign creditors in form of debt service payments. This has further increased uncertainty in the Nigerian economy which discourages foreign investors and also reduces the level of private investment in the economy. Debt burden is the financial crisis arising from debt repayment due to constant interest payment from government revenue and foreign reserves. The use of government revenue to finance interest payments on public debt directly hinders the disposable income and domestic savings in the indebted country (Balago, 2014). Similarly, Sachs (1989) indicated that in a situation where revenue mobilization was geared towards debt servicing; economic instability was likely to occur since it created much leakage in the domestic economy; Nigeria has accumulated huge debt with rising cost of debt service which has undermined economic stability as domestic investments are being crowded out by rising cost of debt servicing. This implies that constant debt servicing diverts investments from economically productive activities, since government revenue is used to cushion interest payments on borrowed funds, thus hindering budget implementation, creating further budget deficit and debt burden. The need to explain the problem of public indebtedness of both developed and developing countries have given rise to a number of theoretical postulates over the years. The outstanding theory that has gained popularity in economics and literature is the debt over hang hypothesis.

Debt Overhang Hypothesis

Debt-overhang theory states that a country’s debt is more than its debt repayment ability. Ezirim (2005) explains the debt overhang hypothesis as one where the accumulated stock of debt acts as a tax on future income and production, and thereby acts to impede investments by turning away the private sector (foreign and domestic) investors. The “debt overhang effect” comes into play when accumulated debt stock discourages investors from investing in the private sector for fear of heavy tax placed on them by government. This is known as tax disincentive. The tax disincentive here implies that because of the high debt and as such huge debt service payments, it is assumed that any future income accrued to potential investors would be taxed heavily by government so as to reduce the amount of debt service and this scares off the investors thereby leading to disinvestment in the overall economy and as such a fall in the rate of growth (Ayadi & Ayadi, 2008). According to Krugman (1988), accumulated public debt act as a tax on future output as well as reduces the incentive for savings and investment. In particular, the theory argued that the requirement to service debt reduces funds available for investment purposes; hence, a binding liquidity constraint on debt would restrain investment and further retard growth.

The theory holds that both the stock of public debt and its service affect growth by discouraging private investment or altering the composition of public spending. Debt service may discourage growth by squeezing the public resources available for investment in infrastructure and human capital (Coccia, 2017). When a country’s debt service burden is huge that a large proportion of output accrues to foreign lenders it will create disincentive to invest. Moreover, when investments are discouraged in an economy, the rate of capital accumulation will be reduced, and so the rate of economic growth would decline in real terms. Through this channel, high debt stock is said to have a negative influence on economic growth and development (Iyioha, 1977). The theory further suggests that public debt may have non-linear effects on growth, either through capital accumulation or productivity growth. Coccia (2017) argued that the resources used to service massive public debt represent resource drain that should have been available to invest in critical sectors that sustain growth. The cost of servicing huge public debts could take a greater part of government scarce revenue leading to distortions and lower levels of growth in developing countries. Debt overhang is a primary cause of stunted economic growth in heavily indebted countries. As Àkos and Istvàn (2019) explained in the context of poor countries, servicing of high public debts depletes the revenue of the indebted country to such an extent that the ability to return to growth paths is dim, even if the country implement strong reform programmes. According to Kakain (2019), debt overhang states that in future, a country’s debt will exceed the country’s ability to repay. Therefore, the expected debt service will be an aggregate function of the output of the economy. As in Ezirim (2005), high debt stock is harmful and damaging to economic growth and development, especially, in poorer countries. But a decrease in the current debt service will lead to an increase in current investment for any given level of future indebtedness.

Empirical Literature Review

Didia and Ayokunle (2020) disaggregated total public debt into external debt and domestic debt, to investigate whether these two forms of debts had a varying impact on the economic growth in Nigeria. Utilizing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and data covering the period of 1980–2016, the study revealed that domestic debt had a statistically significant positive relationship with economic growth in the long run, while external debt exhibited a negative relationship with economic growth, which was not statistically significant. Udoh, Ekeowa, Okechukwu, Obiora-Okafor and Nwonye (2020) used quarterly data from 2006 to 2018 to explore the influence of inter-generational debt burden on economic prosperity in Nigeria. It was found that debt overhang and debt burden in Nigeria were due to the usage of borrowed funds into unproductive activities such as payment of salaries and allowances, which had hindered economic growth.

Mhlaba Phiri and Nsiah (2019) employ the ARDL method and quarterly data from 2002 to 2016 to examine the long-run and short-run effects of public debt on economic growth for South Africa. The study modelled GDP as a function of gross and net debt, investment, inflation and terms of trade. The empirical results indicated a significant negative impact of public debt on economic growth. The study was based on South African data and provided a basis to examine the impact of government debt on economic growth from a Nigerian-specific perspective. Obayori, Krokeyi and Kakain (2019) investigated the impact of external debt on economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1980 to 2016 using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The GMM result revealed a positive and significant relationship between external debt and economic growth in Nigeria.

Saungweme and Odhiambho (2019) explored the causal relationship between government debt, debt servicing and economic growth in Zambia for the period 1979 to 2017 using a dynamic multivariate ARDL approach. To achieve this objective, RGDP was modelled as a function of stock of public debt, fiscal balance and savings as a share of GDP. The empirical results indicated a unidirectional causal relationship from economic growth to public debt in Zambia. The study findings supported the hypothesis that the pace of economic growth matters in defining the level of public sector indebtedness. The study setting was in Zambia thereby creating a geographic gap and the need for a Nigerian- specific study. Ochuko and Idowu (2019) investigated the effect of national debts on economic enhancement in Nigeria from 1981 to 2018. The estimation showed that external debt contributed less to the Nigerian economy, while domestic debt significantly enhanced economic growth. On the other hand, debt servicing cost had a negative and significant influence on economic growth.

Elom-Obed, Odo, Elom-Obed and Anoke (2017) using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and annual data from 1980 to 2015, analyzed the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Nigeria. The study findings revealed a significant negative impact of foreign and domestic debt on economic growth in Nigeria. The study suffered from significant variable omission bias and adopted an inadequate estimation technique that cannot generate reliable coefficient estimates about the study variables. Gómez-Puig and Sosvilla-Rivero (2017) explored the relationship between government debt and economic growth of Euro Area countries using time series data for the period 1961–2013 and the ARDL method. The results indicated a significant negative influence of public debt on long-run performance of the Euro Area member states while the short-run effects may be positive depending on the country. The study looked at Euro countries and provided a basis to examine the impact of public debt on economic growth from a Nigerian-specific perspective.

Udeh, Ugwu and Onwuka (2016) using OLS method and annual data spanning the period 1980–2013 examined the impact of external debt on economic growth in Nigeria. The study modelled GDP as a function of external debt stock, debt service payments and exchange rate. The empirical results indicated that external debt stock and debt service payments impacted growth negatively while exchange rate showed a positive impact. The study concentrated on external debt which is a fraction of total debt stock and used the OLS estimation technique that cannot separate the long- and short-run effect of external debt on growth. Hussain et al. (2015) estimated the linkages between government debts on economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa from 1995 to 2012. The study applied panel OLS, which indicated that rising debt burden triggered negative trends in an economic growth rate. In a study of South Asian economies, Akram (2013) explored the nexus between public debt and economic growth of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka from 1975 to 2011 using panel data estimation techniques. The results showed that both external debt and the cost of debt servicing as well as domestic debt negatively affected economic growth and investments, which showed evidence of debt overhang effect in the economy.

Empirical Gap

The empirical works reviewed shows that most of the study like Didia & Ayokunle (2020), Elom-Obed et al. (2017), Udeh et al. (2016) made use of VECM, OLS and VAR estimation techniques which are not adequate in generating consistent and robust coefficient estimates about the study variables, thereby providing a gap in the methodology used. This study adopted the more advanced ARDL method, which allows for a more robust co-integration and methodologically possible to deal with model selection, estimation, inference and to determine the long run and short run effects of public debt on economic growth in Nigeria. Also, the ARDL method posits the speed of adjustment to restore the economy to long run equilibrium growth path after a shock.

As well, most of the empirical studies were more focused on examining the impact of external debt ( Udeh et al (2016); Obayori et al (2019), on economic growth. Therefore, carrying out a study on only a fragment of a whole would not give an accurate result of the relationship that exists between public debt and economic growth in Nigeria as external debt compose only a portion of government debt stock. Likewise, most of the empirical work chose their control variables at random in modelling the relationship between public debt and economic growth thereby showing their shortcoming by not using most of the important variables stated in the literature. This study incorporated more government debt and growth-related variables in its empirical model to overcome variable omission bias and guide against the identified gap in variables used from previous studies. This study therefore, conducted a multivariate analysis of the relationship between public debt indicators and economic growth in Nigeria that will assist in recommending whether domestic debt or external debt helps to stimulate the level of investment and economic activities in Nigeria. The study also will help to find out if there are evidences of debt overhang in Nigeria. Furthermore, the study uses a relatively long data spanning 41 years than those used in many previous studies. The importance of a longer time series data set in any co-integration analysis cannot be over-emphasized. Also, relying on the findings, this study proffers valuable, pertinent, and practical recommendations for improved policy formulation.

RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURE

This study employed annual secondary data between 1981 and 2021. The data were collected from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Debt Management Office (DMO), World Bank and IMF statistical database. The macroeconomic variables which data were collected include the Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), External Debt Stock (EDS), Domestic Debt Stock (DDS), Debt Service Payments (DSP), Foreign Reserve Position (FRP) all in millions of United States Dollars, Exchange Rate (EXR) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation as a percentage of GDP (GFCF).

Model Specification

This study employed a multivariate debt-growth model to study the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Nigeria. It adopted some key variables specified in the work of Gómez-Puig and Sosvilla-Rivero (2017) with slight changes to suit the requirements of the current study. The choice of the dependent and independent variables used in this study considered underlying economic theories and empirical literatures on the effect of public debt on economic growth in developing countries. The dependent variable used in this study to proxy economic growth was the real GDP growth rate, for the debt variables, the indicators of government debt were separated into domestic and external debts components. This separation was to help evaluate the individual effects of various indicators of government debt on the long run and short run economic growth of Nigeria. Other than the debt variables, different explanatory variables were used as controlling factors that influence economic growth. These control variables were used in this study to moderate the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Nigeria. Such variables included debt service repayment, exchange rate and gross fixed capital formation. The model of Gómez-Puig and Sosvilla-Rivero (2017) is specified as;

Yt = AF(K, L, H, D)                                                                                                   (3.1)

Y is the level of output, A is an index of technological progress, K is the stock of physical capital,

L is labour input, H is human capital, D is public debt stock

The functional relationship of this study’s model is specified as;

RGDP = f(EXDT, DODT, DSTR, EXCR, GFCF)                 ……………………….(3.2)

RGDP  – Proxy for economic growth, EXDT – External debt, DODT – Domestic debt

DSRT  – Debt service repayment, EXCR – Exchange rate, GFCF – Gross fixed capital formation

The econometric form of this model is therefore specified thus;

RGDP t = β o + β 1 EXDT t + β 2 DODT t + β 3 DSTR t + β 4 EXCR t + β 5 GFCF t + u t …………… (3.3)

Estimation Technique

The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methods to examine the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Nigeria. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) is a long-established method of estimating co-integrating relationships, such as Engle-Granger (1987) method which requires all variables to be I(1), or require prior knowledge and specification of which variables are I(0) and which are I(1). To alleviate this problem, Pesaran,  Shin and Smith (2001) showed that co-integrating systems can be estimated as ARDL models, with the advantage that the ARDL cointegration technique is adopted irrespective of whether the underlying variables are I(0), I(1) or a combination of both, and cannot be applied when the underlying variables are integrated of order I(2). However, to avoid crashing of the ARDL technique and effort in futility, unit roots test of variables were conducted to eliminate any variable that may be integrated at order I(2) which otherwise would have led to the crashing of the technique. In order to establish a long run relationship among the variables the first thing to do is to check the existence of the long run relation between the variables under investigation by computing the Bounds F-statistic (bounds test for cointegration). Also, estimates provided by ARDL method avoid problems such as autocorrelation and endogeneity, they are unbiased and efficient and can accommodate greater number of variables in comparison to vector autoregressive (VAR) models and more flexible with respect to lag structure since it can accommodate different optimal lag structure for different variables in the model, which is not applicable in the other cointegration methods (Rahman & Islam, 2020).

ΔlnRGDP = α 0 + ΔlnEXDT t-1 + ΔlnDODT t-1 + ΔlnDSTR t-1 + ΔlnEXCR t-1 + ΔlnGFCF t-1 + α 7 lnRGDP t-1 + α 8 lnEXDT t-1 + α 9 lnDODT t-1 + α 10 lnEXCR t-1 + α 11 lnGFCF t-1 + μ t                                                   (3.4)

Δ is the first difference operator, p is the optimal lag length for the dependent variable, q is the optimal lag length for the regressors, α 1 , 2 , 3 …… 6 represent short-run dynamics of the model, α 7 , α 8 , α 9 , α 10 and α 11 represent the long-run elasticities.

PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS

Lag Selection Criteria

Table 1: Var Lag Selection Criteria

Sample: 1981 2021
Included observations: 40
Lag	LogL	LR	FPE	AIC	SC	HQ
0	-1871.150	NA	2.33e+33	93.85750	94.11084	93.94910
1	-1534.712	555.1233*	7.12e+26*	78.83559*	80.60891*	79.47676*

Source: Researcher’s Computation using Eviews 10.

The optimum lag length for this time series data was selected based on Akaike Information Criterion because it has the lowest value among all the criteria. The decision rule is to select the model that gives the lowest value of these criteria. Lag one is therefore chosen for this model.

Test of Stationarity

Table 2: Summary of Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test

Source: Researcher’s Computation using Eviews 10

	-2.966085	-2.938987	I (1)	0.0471	Stationary
	-3.255320	-2.936942	I (0)	0.0240	Stationary
	-3.894287	-2.938987	I (1)	0.0047	Stationary
	-5.847215	-3.529758	I (1)	0.0001	Stationary
	-4.033150	-3.529758	I (1)	0.0001	Stationary
	-3.697137	-3.529758	I (1)	0.0437	Stationary

The first step to analyze time series data is to ensure the variables are stationary so as to avoid misleading result. To do this, ADF unit root test was conducted and the result is shown in table 2. From the result, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is stationary at level because the t-statistics (-3.255320) and its corresponding probability value of 0.0240 leads to rejection of null hypothesis that gross fixed capital formation has unit root and conclude that the series is integrated of order zero. Furthermore, real gross domestic product (RGDP), external debt (EXDT), exchange rate (EXCR), debt service repayment (DSRT) and domestic debt (DODT) are all stationary at first difference, that is, integrated at order one I(1) indicating that the aforementioned variables are free from unit root. It is therefore concluded that all the variables are stationary since their ADF statistics are greater than the critical values at 5 per cent level of significance. Thus, there is mix order of integration among the variables. In order to test for cointegration among the variables, bound test was carried out through autoregressive distributed lag model as proposed by Pesaran et al (2001).

Cointegration Test

Table 3: Summary of ARDL Bounds Test

Null Hypothesis: No long-run relationships exist
Test Statistic	Value	k
F-statistic	13.80965	5
Critical Value Bounds
Significance	I0 Bound	I1 Bound
10%	2.26	3.35
5%	2.62	3.79
2.5%	2.96	4.18
1%	3.41	4.68

The result of the ARDL Bonds test is presented in table 3. From the result, the F-Statistic of 13.80965 is found to be greater than lower and upper bound of 2.62 and 3.79 respectively at 5 per cent level of significance. It is therefore concluded that there is long run relationship among all the variables. Thus, the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected. Based on this, the long run elasticities based ARDL-ECM model was conducted and the result is presented in table 4.

Long Run Elasticities Based Ardl-Ecm Model

Table 4: Summary of ARDL-ECM TEST

Dependent Variable: D(RGDP)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/27/22   Time: 09:30
Sample (adjusted): 1983 2021
Included observations: 39 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
C	48.58933	245.7322	0.197733	0.8445
D(RGDP(-1))	1.226221	0.152315	8.050587	0.0000
D(GFCF)	0.266906	0.117987	2.262163	0.0308
D(EXDT)	108.2886	34.72035	3.118880	0.0039
D(EXCR)	-7.167448	7.768578	-0.922620	0.3633
D(DSRT)	0.086797	0.058218	1.490889	0.1461
D(DODT)	-0.858898	0.326948	-2.627013	0.0133
ECM(-1)	-1.192382	0.217620	-5.479180	0.0000
R-squared	0.749150	Mean dependent var		1472.015
Adjusted R-squared	0.692507	S.D. dependent var		1517.948
S.E. of regression	841.7332	Akaike info criterion		16.48949
Sum squared resid	21963956	Schwarz criterion		16.83073
Log likelihood	-313.5450	Hannan-Quinn criter.		16.61192
F-statistic	13.22572	Durbin-Watson stat		1.822998
Prob(F-statistic)	0.000000

After establishing that there is long run relationship among the variables, the ARDL-ECM was conducted. From the result in table 4, the past value of real gross domestic product (RGDP) of 1.226221 implies that 1 percent increase in the past value of real gross domestic product (RGDP) will increase the value of real gross domestic product at current time with about 1.23 percent. This shows a positive relationship and statistically significant at 5 percent level since the p value of 0.0000 is less than 0.05 percent. The coefficient of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) of 0.266906 with p value of 0.0308 is positive and statistically significant. This indicates that 1 percent increase in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) will increase RGDP by 0.27 percent. Similarly, the coefficients of external debt (EXDT) and debt service repayment (DSRT) which stood at 108.2886 and 0.086797, with their p values of 0.0039 and 0.0133 respectively reveals a positive and significant impact between external debt, debt service repayment and real gross domestic product in Nigeria. It implies that 1 percent increase in EXDT and DSRT will increase RGDP by 108.3 and 0.09 percent respectively. The coefficients of exchange rate and domestic debt are however negative with the values of -7.167448 and -0.858898 respectively. This means that 1 percent increase in exchange rate and domestic debt will decrease the real gross domestic product by 7.17 and 0.86 percent respectively. Judging from their p values, exchange rate is statistically insignificant with p value of 0.3633 while domestic debt is significant at 5 percent level of significance. All these variables however, conform to apriori expectation except domestic debt and debt service repayment.

The value of ECM of -1.192382 captures the speed of adjustment of the model, implies that about 1.19 percent of the divergence or disequilibrium from the long run is being corrected for in the current period. The ECM coefficient is correctly signed and also statistically significant at 5 percent level. The constant value of 48.58933 means that if all the variables are held constant or fixed (zero), real gross domestic product will be valued at 48.59. Thus, the a-priori expectation is that the intercept could be positive or negative, so it conforms to the theoretical expectation.

The R-Squared of 0.749150 which is approximately 0.75 indicates that about 75 percent variations in real gross domestic product (RGDP) are explained by gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), external debt (EXDT), domestic debt (DODT), exchange rate (EXCR) and debt service repayment (DSRT) while the remaining 25 percent is attributed to other variables that are not explicitly captured in the model but also influence RGDP.

The F-Statistic of the model is 13.225 with probability value of 0.000000. This implies that the variables are jointly statistically significant at 5 percent level since the F-calculated is greater than the F-tabulated, even with the p value which is practically zero. This model is thus well-specified. The Durbin-Watson statistic is 1.822998, which is approximately 2. It implies that the model is not suffering from autocorrelation.

Diagnostic Tests

This subsection shows the results of the residual diagnostic tests conducted after estimation.

Serial Correlation Test

F-statistic	0.802339	Prob. F(1,30)		0.3775
Obs*R-squared	1.015872	Prob. Chi-Square(1)		0.3135

From the result in table 5, the F-Statistic and Obs*R-squared values of 0.802339 and 1.015872 with p values of 0.3775 and 0.3135 respectively are greater than the critical values at 5 percent level of significance. Hence, we conclude that there is no serial correlation in the model.

Heteroscedasticity Test

F-statistic	1.279267	Prob. F(7,31)		0.2927
Obs*R-squared	8.740859	Prob. Chi-Square(7)		0.2718
Scaled explained SS	5.402983	Prob. Chi-Square(7)		0.6109

Table 6 presents the result of heteroscedasticity test. From the result, the F-statistic and Obs*R-squared have the values of 1.279267 and 8.740859 with corresponding p values of 0.2927 and 0.2718 respectively. These values are greater than the critical values at 5 percent level of significance. It means that the model is free from heteroscedasticity, that is, the mean, variance and covariance are constant over time.

Stability Test

To test whether the model is stable or not, both the cumulative sum and the cumulative sum of squares tests are conducted.

Figure 1: Cumulative Sum Plot

Figure 2: Plot of Cumulative Sum of Squares

From the results in figures 1 and 2, Figure 1 shows that the model and the estimated parameters are stable given that the graph moves within the 0.05 critical values. Similarly, figure 2 is the cumulative sum of square test which shows that the model and the estimated parameters are largely stable throughout the period under investigation since the blue line veers within the two red lines indicating 5% level of significance.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

This study examined debt overhang hypothesis, theory and empirical evidence in Nigeria spanning from 1981 to 2021. The study used ARDL method of data analysis. The empirical findings showed that the past value of real gross domestic product (RGDP), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), external debt (EXDT) and debt service repayment (DSRT) have positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This shows that government borrowing external sources has been utilized efficiently in expanding productive base of the economy. Also, exchange rate (EXCR) and domestic debt (DODT) have negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This shows that government borrowing from the domestic capital market reduces funds available for private investment. Judging from the p values, the lagged value of RGDP, GFCF, EXDT and DSRT are statistically significant as their p values are lower than critical values at 5 percent level of significance, while EXCR and DODT have no significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. The R-Squared of the 75 percent shows that the model is a good fit as 75 percent variations in RGDP are explained by GFCF, EXDT, EXCR, DODT and DSRT. It is therefore concluded that the model is correctly specified.

Based on this, the following recommendations were made.

• Government should formulate and effectively implement policy that would boost domestic revenue generation and reduce ineffective government spending.
• Government should also use the borrowed funds to put in place infrastructural facilities required for development as this will help create enabling environment for investment to thrive well.
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Title: Determinants of investment behaviour of investors: a review and research agenda

Authors : Rakhi Arora; Sonal Purohit

Addresses : University School of Business-MBA, Chandigarh University, Punjab, 140413, India ' Symbiosis Institute of Business Management, Nagpur, Symbiosis International University, Nagpur, 440035, India

Abstract : Investment decision-making is often difficult for individual investors where millions of investors have similar access to information for saving and investment. The huge variation in the investment decision-making procedure makes the overall process complex and difficult to understand. The extant literature on determinants of investment decisions is scattered with contradictory claims from the authors. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to present a comprehensive view of the determinants of investment behaviour of investors through a systematic literature review. A total of 43 journal papers that were peer reviewed and published between 2010 and 2023 were subjected to this review. A conceptual framework that comprehensively presents the factors that affect investment related decisions is put forth after an exhaustive analysis of this review. This study explains about diverse factors, which are demographic factors, social factors, psychological factors, market factors, financial factors and risk and return criteria prescribing the decision of an investor for investment based on their rational behaviour. The potential factors for future studies are also discussed.

Keywords : behavioural finance; investment behaviour; investment decision-making; investment factors; financial market; risk and return.

DOI : 10.1504/IJBAF.2024.139359

International Journal of Behavioural Accounting and Finance, 2024 Vol.7 No.2, pp.153 - 176

Accepted: 27 Feb 2024 Published online: 01 Jul 2024 *

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