uk drought 2012 case study

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• All about drought: A case study of UK drought 2010-2012 – investigating the responses

These resources combine a range of teaching approaches and embed a series of critical thinking techniques in order to further develop students’ understanding of the subject matter.

Cross-curricular links are made to literacy, numeracy and ICT enabling the students to transfer their skills across the spectrum of subjects. The lessons offer opportunities for students to conduct further research, explore the numerous websites and use a range of resources such as choropleth maps to conduct their own investigation into previous drought events and begin to predict future ones from the trends. Each lesson is accompanied by an editable PowerPoint presentation and relevant worksheets.

In this lesson, students explore a range of perspectives on the impact of the droughts. Students can use this information to evaluate the impacts.

Learning objective

• To investigate the responses to the 2010–2012 drought in the seven catchment areas and how these varied depending on sector.

The students explore a range of perspectives on the impact of the droughts. Students can use this information to evaluate the impacts.

Resources to support this lesson

UK drought 2010-2012 PowerPoint presentation

Recycling in soft fruit PDF file

Keep thinking worksheet

Summary of drought accounts worksheet

Speech to local government worksheet

Recycling in soft fruit worksheet

Learning reflection worksheet

Relevant websites

The Dry Utility

About Drought: Paul Hammett

About Drought Handbook: Outputs and Impacts

About Drought Event 2018 Highlights (Vimeo)

Other lessons in this set

Is drought a global phenomenon?

A case study of UK drought 2010-2012: considering the cause and impacts of the drought

The 1976 Drought – was it all good?

The future of drought in the UK

Changing our thinking about drought

This lesson has been co-written by the GA consultant Gemma Mawdsley and produced in collaboration with the DRY research team, ENDOWS, UWE, and About Drought.

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From Drought to Flood - 2010 to 2012

Across most of the UK, the 2010/2012 period was remarkable in climatic terms with exceptional departures from normal rainfall, runoff and aquifer recharge patterns. Generalising broadly, drought conditions developed through 2010, intensified during 2011 and were severe across much of England & Wales by the early spring of 2012. Record late spring and summer rainfall then triggered a hydrological transformation that has no close modern parallel. Seasonally extreme river flows were common through the summer, heralding further extensive flooding during the autumn and, particularly, the early winter when record runoff at the national scale provided a culmination to the wettest nine-month sequence for England & Wales in an instrumental record beginning in 1766.

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Rainfall during the summer and autumn of 2010 was not far from average generally, but it was the recharge period following that that gave cause for concern as rainfall was rather below average in the winter, and then a long way below average through the spring of 2011 over England & Wales, allowing soil moisture deficits to grow rapidly. After a slightly wetter than average summer in some areas, the autumn of 2011 was again drier than average over England & Wales especially, delaying the beginning of the recharge’season. The winter of 2011/2012 was again rather dry for most of England & Wales, and therefore by this time water availability was well below average, especially as March 2012 was also dry, as we went into spring. However, there was a dramatic transformation after that, with record-breaking amounts of rainfall across parts of the UK during April, June and July 2012 amid a succession of rather wet months, thus ending drought concerns.

The plot below shows the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index for the periods before, during and after the drought. The NAO is a prominent teleconnection pattern in all seasons, and strong positive phases tend to be associationed with above-average temperatures in northern Europe, whilst negative phases of the NAO tend to be associated with below-average temperatures. There is more information available here .

In general, the events’ two-year duration ranked only moderately amongst all previous historical events, as do the accumulated deficits. For south-east England where hosepipe bans were implemented, durations and accumulated deficits for the drought ranked only on the periphery of or outside the top ten of all previous historical events. The exception to this was southern and central England and Wales, where drought duration and severity both ranked amongst the top three compared to all previous events. More notable was the intensity of drought conditions; drought minima were amongst the lowest ever experienced to date in parts of Wales, East Anglia and southern England. The combination of only moderate duration but the high intensity is related to rainfall deficiencies that were particularly acute during the winter months of both years. The termination of drought conditions through the summer half-year was very unusual in the pre-2012 historical record and this recovery was amongst the most abrupt on record (for any season).

Groundwater

As a result, new record March minima were reported for many observation boreholes in March 2012 (see map of March 2012 groundwater levels), and only in 1992 has the overall aquifer storage been lower than in March 2012 (Marsh et al. 2013). Over the period of the drought, the Chalk was the worst affected aquifer (Marsh et al. 2013). The end of the drought was rapid with large recoveries in groundwater levels seen in short periods of time, particularly on the Chalk (see Marsh et al. 2013), recording above average or new maxima by August. Although the relatively slowly responding groundwater levels in the Permo-Triassic Sandstone of the Midlands and north-west, such as at Heathlanes, did not return to monthly averages until April 2013 (Marsh et al. 2013).

There was a large contraction in the groundwater supported stream network and the cessation of flow in many winterbournes with the most significant effects seen towards the end of the drought period (Marsh et al. 2013). Reduction of groundwater baseflow in many rivers contributed to low flows and to the deterioration of river and wetland water quality through low oxygen levels, decreased effluent dilution and algal blooms, and the loss of habitat and fish kills due to stream network shrinkage. The first Drought Orders (colloquially known as ‘hosepipe bans’) were issued as early as June 2010 (Marsh et al. 2013), and by the end of the drought a wide range of the mitigation actions were in place, including low flow augmentation and the use of emergency groundwater sources, and by April 2012 Drought Orders affected ~20 million people.

Click images to enlarge

Public Water Supply

Fortunately, the exceptionally wet July ensured substantial inflow from the steep upland gathering grounds and most reservoir stocks recovered through the late summer and autumn. There were exceptions: in south-west Britain, Clatworthy registered its second lowest October level since the terminal phase of the 1995 drought. Late in 2010, the stress on water resources was locally exacerbated during the exceptionally cold December. Many reservoirs registered their largest November-December decline in stocks as frozen catchments greatly limited inflows and in Northern Ireland, there were substantial water supply problems. Modest rainfall during the winter half-year of 2010/2011 resulted in natural replenishment to a number of major lowland reservoirs in England which were only around half of the long-term average and the spring of 2011 proved pivotal to the drought’s development. Dry weather and high temperatures in March and April increased water demand and accelerated the depletion of reservoir stocks. Notably low late spring reservoir levels were widely reported; in Wales, May stocks were the lowest since the 1995 drought in the Elan Valley reservoirs. Across much of southern and central England (extending into South Yorkshire) water companies were increasingly drawing from alternative sources to help conserve reservoir stocks through the summer half-year. Nonetheless, stocks in gravity-fed reservoirs were generally well below the seasonal average by the summer; in Devon, stocks for early-July in Wimbleball reservoir equalled their lowest on record.

In most northern and western areas, stocks recovered through the late summer and autumn 2011 – by which time they were approaching, or exceeding, seasonal maxima in Scotland. In contrast, the depletion of stocks continued through the autumn of 2011 in the drought-affected regions. Late autumn stocks for Bewl reservoir were close to the lowest on record and, in the Midlands, the Charnwood group of reservoirs fell below 40% of capacity by late-October. Careful management of river abstractions and preferential drawing on groundwater sources helped maintain stocks in a number of large pumped storage reservoirs (including those servicing London’s water needs) but, in December, stocks across much of southern England were seasonally depressed.

Generally, the recovery of stocks through the winter of 2011/12 was, again, weak; reservoir levels remained close to, or below, previous late winter minima across southern England and parts of the Midlands. March then saw the largest early spring decline in overall reservoir stocks for England & Wales since 1993. Early-April stocks were the lowest on record for a number of major reservoirs, including Rutland, and stocks in a few southern impoundments (e.g. Bewl; Figure 15c) were only around 50% of capacity. Many farm reservoirs had also failed to fill through the winter and levels in a number of reservoirs servicing the canal network were also depressed. For example, reservoirs supplying the Oxford Union Canal remained below half of capacity and Naseby Reservoir, the primary feeder into the Grand Union Leicester Line, was at its lowest, for the beginning of the boating season, in a 20-year record.

Agriculture

In East Anglia, crop yield potential was already affected, with crops on sandy soils beginning to suffer drought stress and die back. The impact of the driest start to summer for decades was felt in the grain markets. Wheat yields in France and Germany were thought to be worst affected by the long, dry spell and UK yields were also expected to suffer, but to a lesser extent. Wheat yield losses to the industry averaged between 1-2t/ha, costing UK growers around £40 million, simply as a result of crops not having enough water when they needed it. After such a dry growing season in 2011, crops on clay and chalk soils appeared to be performing the best, while those on sandy soils suffered badly from drought. Up to 85% of the UK's cereal crops were affected, with around 20% of winter wheat and barley crops being severely hit.

“Farmers worried that they may not be able to supply contracted tonnage from the drought-stricken 2011 crop are urged to contact their buyers and negotiate an early solution”. 'Drought-hit farms urged to keep buyers informed', Farmers Weekly, 20 May 2011, Vol 155 (21), p27 “Most irrigators are working flat out, often just to keep pace with potatoes, onions and other high value crops. Any spare water can be applied to sugar beet or even wheat, which will pay off with increased yields”. 'Arable: Irrigating wheat and sugar beet will pay off', Farmers Guardian, 27 May 2011, p15 Extracts from the Historic droughts inventory of references from agricultural media 1975 to 2012

Grass shortages across the country in 2010, especially in the north, south and east, posed massive challenges to farmers. Livestock farmers across the country reported significant forage shortages as a result of a lack of rain, with reductions in silage yields of up to 40% compared to the previous year and hay crops down by as much as 50%. Livestock farmers faced high feed costs. In 2011, spring growth in the Midlands and the South was well down and in some places virtually non-existent, in contrast to Scotland and the North of England where plenty of rainfall led to good growth.

In May 2011, the Environment Agency stopped farmers in the West Midlands abstracting water from rivers due to low flows and so water reserves within on-farm reservoirs were going down fairly quickly. Farmers in the South East received a notice to cease their abstraction, and some voluntary restrictions were in place in the East of England. In summer 2011, farmers with winter storage reservoirs that were running very low because of the dry winter were allowed to apply for permission to top them up. In February 2012, farmers were facing restrictions on abstracting from rivers to irrigate crops, and households faced hosepipe bans. Voluntary restrictions were started again in March 2012 in some areas of the East of England. And soon after, it started raining…

When specific areas are mentioned, the Midlands and South East England are the most cited. However, while the tabloids also reported on the drought hitting North West England, the broadsheet paid attention to Yorkshire. The newspapers frequently mentioned that dry weather conditions affected the water levels of rivers and reservoirs and the tabloids specifically mentioned the negative impact of the drought on wildlife and plants/gardens. There were also frequent mentions of the introduction of hosepipe bans and applications for drought permits, usually related to places in England. Scotland’s water resources were also cited since Scotland could provide water to drought-hit England.

Policy and Management

In May 2011 discussions in Parliament focus on the drought’s impact on farming. Several Members of Parliament (MPs) voice the concerns of people in their constituencies regarding the water abstraction regime, which is thought to no longer serve farmers well. Afraid that water restrictions would be imposed later in the year, especially during the summer, farmers started to use their allocated abstraction amounts (set through quotas) earlier than usual in the year. MPs also voice concerns about ‘competing priorities for abstraction’ between different stakeholders: the Environment Agency, water companies, farmers and internal drainage boards. In these debates, water shortage and drought are therefore portrayed not only as natural phenomena, but also as shaped by social, political, and economic interests. The focus in these debates appears to be not on identifying the factors that may drive drought, but on how different social groups experience and deal with drought as a result of their varying access to resources, for example, different access to infrastructure such as reservoirs. The Government is considering whether to reform the water abstraction regime to facilitate investment in order to respond to the increased variability and the reduced availability of water due to a changing climate. Hence, water management and water-related risks are discussed in the context of greater environmental transformations, such as a changing climate. In June 2011 a series of measures are put in place to deal with reduced water flows in rivers. The Government also talks about long-term plans for dealing with water scarcity: building infrastructure and the need to develop further plans for building resilience in the future. Special consideration is given to the impact of water scarcity on the environment and conservation.

Published event descriptions/reports

Marsh, Parry, Kendon & Hannaford: The 2010-12 drought and subsequent extensive flooding: a remarkable hydrological transformation

Kendon, Marsh & Parry: The 2010–2012 drought in England and Wales

CEH Briefing note

University of Reading

Centaur: central archive at the university of reading, accessibility navigation.

It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing .

To link to this item DOI: 10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022

Abstract/Summary

Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts cause significant environmental stress. The UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts under climate change. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change often rely solely on GCM projections following different emission scenarios. This may miss out low probability events with significant impacts. As a means of exploring such events, physical climate storyline approaches aim to quantify physically coherent articulations of how observed events could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways. This study uses the 2010-2012 drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought in the UK, as a basis, and analyses storylines based on changes to 1) precondition severity, 2) temporal drought sequence, and 3) climate change. Evidence from multiple storylines shows that maximum intensity, mean deficit and duration of the 2010-2012 drought were highly influenced by its meteorological preconditions prior to drought inception, particularly for northern catchments at shorter time scales. The influence of progressively drier preconditions reflects both spatial variation in drought preconditions and the role of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology in the propagation of multi-year droughts. Two plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated either before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a “three dry winter” storyline. Applying the UKCP18 climate projections, we find that drought conditions worsen with global warming with a mitigation of drought conditions by wetter winters in northern catchments at high warming levels. Comparison of the storylines with a benchmark drought (1975-76) and a protracted multi-year drought (1989-93) shows that for each storyline (including the climate change storylines), drought conditions could have matched and exceeded those experienced during the past droughts at catchments across the UK, particularly for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealized droughts.

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UK Drought 2012- Case Study with exam questions

Subject: Geography

Age range: 14-16

Resource type: Unit of work

Last updated

10 December 2023

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An A4 sheet summarising the UK drought of 2012 required for the OCR GCSE Geography exam. Exam questions are on the back for the students to complete.

It includes:

• Areas affected and at risk of drought
• Causes of the drought
• Economic effects
• Social effects
• Environmental effects
• 3 responses to the drought
• Evaluation of these responses

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A bundle including all the case studies needed for the Global Hazards section of the GCSE OCR Exam paper. This bundle includes: * The Nepal Case Study * Typhoon Haiyan * UK Drought 2012

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• Environment
• Water industry
• Drought and water availability

Drought modelling

GAD supported a project to develop a standardised approach to estimating the poverty and nutritional impacts of droughts in Sub-Saharan Africa.

We worked with the Centre for Disaster Protection, to develop a model that simulates soil moisture in Malawi based on historic data. GAD’s model provided a methodology which can be adapted for simulating other drought measures in different countries.

Drought indicators

The Centre for Disaster Protection collaborated with the World Bank to examine various drought indicators and welfare measures.

They were looking to find a link between droughts and the impact on households, using historical weather event series as indicators of drought. GAD’s role was to develop a model to simulate the drought indicators.

Data science

GAD carried out a detailed exploration of historical data to ensure we understood the features and dynamics which we needed to capture in our modelling. We used this to develop a model which produced 10,000 simulations, over a 1-year time horizon of soil moisture at 5-kilometer points throughout Malawi.

We used data science techniques to build a model to reduce the dimensionality of the data and fit an appropriate time-series model. We then created simulated future projections of soil moisture for each of the data points.

Our analysts had to overcome the challenge of capturing the following behaviours of the underlying drought indicators:

• temporal : how to capture the seasonal trends and varying levels of soil moisture during the rainy and dry seasons
• spatial : how to incorporate correlations between spatial points (where we had to look at the relationships between 32,000 data points)
• scalability : how to make the model flexible and scalable so it can be applied to other countries and drought indicators

It is hoped that our model could be used to improve how we plan for and take action to avoid or mitigate the impact of droughts in Sub-Saharan Africa.

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