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Rise to Success: How Bakery Marketing is Sweetening the Digital World

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Bakery marketing has always been beloved, capturing countless individuals’ hearts. The aroma of bread fresh out of the oven, the sight of intricately designed cakes, and the first bite into a warm pastry are experiences that evoke pure joy. However, in today’s fast-paced digital age, relying solely on scrumptious treats is no longer sufficient to entice customers. To truly flourish in this fiercely competitive market, bakeries must harness the potential of digital marketing.

Establishing a strong brand presence is crucial to market your bakery online effectively. This entails creating a cohesive visual identity that resonates with your target audience. From your logo and website design to your social media content, each element should embody the essence of your bakery and captivate potential customers. This article will delve into the numerous strategies and tactics that can propel your bakery to success in the digital realm.

The importance of digital marketing for bakeries

In today’s digital age, bakery marketing has become more important. With the rise of online shopping and social media, bakeries must have a strong digital presence to attract new customers. Traditional forms of advertising, such as billboards and print ads, don’t have the same impact they used to.

By utilizing digital marketing strategies, you can reach your target audience where they spend most of their time – online. Social media platforms like Instagram and Facebook allow you to showcase your delicious baked goods and engage with customers personally and interactively. Additionally, search engine optimization (SEO) techniques can help your bakery appear at the top of search results when potential customers are looking for baked goods in your area.

And let’s not forget about email marketing – a powerful tool for staying in touch with loyal customers and enticing them to visit your bakery with special offers and promotions. In conclusion, embracing digital marketing is essential for bakeries that want to thrive in today’s competitive market. So don’t wait any longer – start creating your digital strategy today and watch as more foot traffic comes through the doors of your bakery!

Understanding the target audience for bakery marketing

When it comes to bakery marketing, understanding your target audience is key. Knowing who will be interested in your bakery’s offerings allows you to create effective marketing campaigns that resonate with their needs and preferences. Are you catering to young professionals who need a quick breakfast on the go? Or are you targeting families searching for a special cake for a birthday celebration? By conducting market research and analyzing customer data, you can gain valuable insights into your target audience’s demographics, interests, and purchasing behaviors.

Once you clearly understand your target audience, it’s time to tailor your marketing efforts accordingly. Craft engaging content that speaks directly to their desires and pain points. Use social media platforms to showcase mouthwatering images of your delicious baked goods and share stories behind your recipes. Consider partnering with influencers or local businesses to reach a wider audience.

In addition to digital marketing, don’t overlook the power of traditional advertising methods. Display eye-catching posters or flyers in strategic locations where your target audience will likely see them. Collaborate with local coffee shops or cafes for cross-promotion opportunities.

Remember that building strong relationships with your customers is essential for long-term success. Offer special promotions or discounts exclusively for loyal customers and encourage them to leave reviews online. Respond promptly to feedback or inquiries, showing that you value their opinions.

Developing a bakery marketing strategy

To create an engaging bakery marketing strategy, it’s crucial to start by setting clear, measurable goals that align with your business objectives. For example, you might want to increase online orders by a certain percentage or boost foot traffic to your physical bakery location. Once you have identified your goals, the next step is to determine the most effective digital marketing channels and tactics to achieve them.

Social media advertising can be a powerful tool for promoting your bakery and reaching a wider audience. Platforms like Facebook and Instagram allow you to target specific demographics and showcase mouthwatering images of your delicious treats. Additionally, search engine optimization (SEO) can help improve your bakery’s website visibility in search engine results pages, making it easier for potential customers to find you online.

Email marketing is another effective strategy for engaging customers and informing them about new products or promotions. You can build customer loyalty and drive repeat business by sending regular newsletters or exclusive offers . Creating a detailed plan outlining the actions, timelines, and resources required to execute your bakery marketing strategy successfully is important. This will ensure that you stay organized and focused on achieving your goals.

Remember, consistency is key when it comes to marketing your bakery. Regularly updating your social media pages, optimizing your website for search engines, and sending out engaging email campaigns will help keep your brand top of mind for customers. By implementing these strategies and monitoring their effectiveness, you can take your bakery marketing efforts to the next level and see tangible results in increased orders and foot traffic.

Creating a visually appealing bakery website

In today’s digital landscape, your bakery’s website serves as the online face of your business. Creating a visually appealing and user-friendly website that showcases your bakery’s unique offerings is essential. Start by choosing an attractive design that reflects your brand’s personality. Use high-quality images of your mouth-watering baked goods to entice visitors. Ensure your website is mobile-responsive, as more consumers browse the internet on their smartphones. Implement clear navigation menus, making it easy for visitors to find information about your bakery, menu, location, and contact details. Finally, optimize your website for search engines to improve its visibility and organic traffic.

Utilizing social media for bakery marketing

Social media platforms offer a goldmine of opportunities for bakery marketing. Create engaging profiles on popular platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter to connect with your target audience. Share visually stunning images and videos of your bakery’s creations to captivate and inspire your followers. Encourage user-generated content by running contests or offering incentives for customers to share their experiences with your bakery on social media. Engage with your audience by responding to comments and messages promptly. Leverage social media advertising to reach a wider audience and effectively promote your bakery’s products and promotions.

Content marketing for bakeries

Content marketing is a powerful strategy that creates and distributes valuable, relevant, and consistent content to attract and retain customers. Content marketing can take various forms for bakeries, such as blog posts, recipes, videos, and tutorials. Share baking tips, behind-the-scenes glimpses of your bakery, and stories about your passion for creating delicious treats. Optimize your content for search engines to increase its visibility and drive organic traffic to your website. By providing valuable content, you position your bakery as an authority in the industry and build trust with your target audience.

Email marketing for bakeries

Email marketing continues to be one of the most effective ways to engage with your customers and drive repeat business. Build an email list by offering incentives, such as exclusive discounts or a free recipe book, in exchange for subscribers’ contact information. Segment your email list based on customer preferences, past purchases, or demographics to deliver personalized and relevant content. Use compelling subject lines to entice recipients to open your emails. Share updates about new menu items, upcoming promotions, and special events. Include mouth-watering images and call-to-action buttons to encourage recipients to visit your bakery or order online.

Online advertising options for bakeries

In addition to organic bakery marketing efforts, online advertising can help you reach a wider audience and drive targeted traffic to your bakery. Consider running paid ads on search engines, social media platforms, or food-focused websites and blogs. Use keyword targeting to ensure your ads are displayed to users actively searching for bakery-related products and services. Experiment with different ad formats, such as text, display, or video ads, to see what resonates best with your target audience. Monitor your ad campaigns closely and make data-driven decisions to optimize your ad spend and maximize your return on investment (ROI).

Measuring success and tracking ROI in bakery marketing

To truly understand the impact of your bakery marketing efforts, tracking and measuring key performance indicators (KPIs) while also keeping an eye on your return on investment (ROI) is crucial. Utilizing analytics tools like Google Analytics can provide valuable insights into website traffic, conversion rates, and customer engagement metrics.

By monitoring these metrics, you can gain a comprehensive view of how your marketing strategies are performing. Additionally, assessing the success of your social media campaigns is vital. Analyzing reach, engagement, and click-through rates will clearly show how well your messaging resonates with your target audience.

Don’t forget to evaluate the effectiveness of your email marketing campaigns as well. Keep an eye on open, click-through, and conversion rates to gauge their impact on driving customer action. Continuously reviewing your marketing data will help you identify areas for improvement and make informed decisions to optimize your bakery marketing efforts.

Case studies of successful bakery marketing campaigns

Explore some real-life case studies of successful marketing campaigns to inspire further and guide your bakery marketing efforts.

Case Study 1: The Cupcake Connoisseur

The success of Cupcake Connoisseur’s bakery marketing campaign is a testament to the power of social media in driving business growth. With their visually appealing cupcakes taking center stage, they captivated the attention of their target audience and enticed them to visit their physical location. Collaborating with local influencers added a touch of authenticity to their campaign, as these influencers shared their personal experiences with the bakery’s delectable treats.

The strategic decision to run targeted Facebook ads further amplified their reach, ensuring that their message reached potential customers who may not have been aware of the bakery before. As a result, foot traffic to the Cupcake Connoisseur soared by an impressive 30%, translating into a substantial increase in overall sales by 20%.

This remarkable achievement demonstrates the effectiveness of social media platforms and influencer partnerships in driving business success for small businesses like the Cupcake Connoisseur. With these results serving as a testament to their bakery marketing strategy, it is clear that they have found a winning formula for attracting customers and boosting sales.

Case Study 2: The Artisan Bread House

With their newfound success in online sales, The Artisan Bread House decided to take their bakery marketing to the next level. They realized that social media could be a powerful tool for reaching a wider audience and engaging with customers. They created captivating posts featuring mouthwatering images of their artisanal bread and behind-the-scenes videos of their baking process. This approach generated excitement among their existing customers and attracted new followers enticed by the unique offerings.

In addition to social media, they partnered with local influencers who shared their love for fresh, handmade bread. These collaborations helped spread the word about The Artisan Bread House, creating a buzz in the online community. As a result, their website traffic skyrocketed, increasing both online and in-store sales. The bakery’s dedication to quality and innovation had truly paid off, solidifying its position as a leader in the artisanal bread industry.

Conclusion: Sweetening your bakery’s success in the digital world

In conclusion, bakery marketing in the digital world offers immense opportunities for growth and success. You can sweeten your bakery’s success by embracing digital marketing strategies such as creating a visually appealing website, utilizing social media, implementing content and email marketing, and exploring online advertising strategies. Remember to understand your target audience, develop a comprehensive marketing strategy, measure your success, and learn from real-life case studies. With dedication, creativity, and a sprinkle of digital marketing magic, your bakery can succeed in the digital world.

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Center for Agroecology

Case Study No. 1: Alvarado Street Bakery

• Thistlethwaite, Rebecca ;
• Brown, Martha

Developed by the UCSC Center for Agroecology & Sustainable Food Systems, this series of case studies focuses on the social and environmental efforts of innovative U.S. food system businesses across different geographies, scales, legal structures, and points along the food supply chain. While these represent only a handful of the thousands of socially and environmentally responsible food businesses across the nation, they have many features that others can learn from in developing sustainable businesses that incorporate the triple bottom line of people, planet, and profits.

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• ESG & Impact
• Active Governance & Stewardship
• GAIL’s Bakery

Making Good Food Go Further

London, England

Bain Capital Special Situations

By the Numbers

of current suppliers have environmental credentials

green energy in bakeries

In 2021, the Bain Capital Special Situations team invested in GAIL’s Bakery, a UK based artisanal bakery that serves local communities. Originally founded as a wholesale business, today GAIL’s has over 100 retail bakeries in the United Kingdom—and throughout its growth, the company has stayed true to its original philosophy: to make good food that people love.

Throughout GAIL’s history, embedding responsible practices into its strategy has always been a priority. The company’s ability to supply high-quality, freshly baked goods, meals, and drinks with a customer-focused culture drives GAIL’s strong brand following, like-for-like growth, and expanding bakery network. With the company’s growth, the leadership team has maintained a focus on establishing sustainable business practices and giving back to communities.

For GAIL’s, “good” doesn’t only mean “delicious”—it also means sustainable. It’s why the company’s Waste Not mission works to achieve zero food waste. GAIL’s uses ingredients in its products that might otherwise be discarded, understanding that innovative baking is the perfect way to make the most out of these contents.

For example, the business breaks down leftover bread loaves to create its signature Waste-Less Sourdough for the following day, which it bakes fresh. This approach has been so successful that it has garnered awards—and GAIL’s has expanded it to a wider range of products, from croissants and crackers to buns and babkas.

GAIL’s mission doesn’t end with sustainable baking. At the end of each day, GAIL’s donates over 90% of its edible surplus food to local charities and initiatives. Additionally, GAIL’s has implemented several changes to improve the sustainability of its packaging—including transitioning to biodegradable, compostable materials.

This is good food, doing good.

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Marketing Mix Strategy Formulation in Bakery Store (Case Study: Pinnamon Bakery)

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Custom SaaS platform for CakerHQ

Learn how Codica created an eye-catching, intuitive, and secure SaaS platform for a bakery business. It allows users to book desserts in a pair of clicks using only secure payments.

Business challenges

• Effectively replace the baking business’s current quoting, order-taking, and payment processing systems.
• Make the SaaS platform for bakery businesses user-friendly and attractive, with design emphasizing the brand’s image.
• Optimize the custom bakery website for both desktop and mobile devices.
• Integrate Google Maps and Google Places API services to help customers find cake makers nearby.
• Create a convenient messaging system to simplify communication between cake makers and customers.

Value delivered

• Developed a clear and simple quote system to send the cake request to the baker and a convenient messaging system. These systems greatly simplify the interaction between cake makers and buyers.
• Integrated the Google Places and Google Maps APIs. These services allow customers to see more cake makers and the possible delivery radius. So they have all the information to make a deliberate choice.
• Created convenient search filters. So the customers can find exactly what they are looking for very quickly.
• Optimized the SaaS-based platform for mobile devices. So, the bakery solution looks amazing on both desktop and smaller mobile screens.
• Implemented a modern and secure payment system, Stripe. Thus, the users can be sure their payments on this custom bakery website are protected.
• Created a neat and appealing bakery website design, making it user-friendly, which impacts users’ involvement.

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Case Study on Bakery

Bakery case study:.

Bakery is an establishment and a form of business which is specialized in the production of the flour-based food and confectionery. As a rule, bakeries not only produce but also sell their goods in the bakery shops. Generally, the typical choice of goods in bakeries is quite vast. One can purchase bread, cakes, cookies, pies, sweat rolls, etc. Bakeries function for the different sort of customers and for the different occasions.

The establishment is popular among the individuals, couples of people, who want to have a tasty snack and among the people who want to make their party brighter. For example, there is hardly a birthday or a wedding without a great decorated cake. Birthday and wedding cakes are generally great layer-cakes which rich decor and specific weird shapes. Bakeries can produce their own styles of such cakes but more often the customer imagines his own shape and theme of the cake. Nearly every bakery has a cafe and offers tea, coffee, juice, etc for its customers who want to spend time somewhere in a cosy place. Bakeries have always been popular in the world, because the quality and the choice of their products are higher than of the ones from the supermarkets.

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In many countries which have established ancient traditions of baking bakeries are the part of the culture and tradition, so the tourists generally visit such bakeries to try their goods made according to the ancient recipes.Bakeries have always existed in the human civilization and provided people with flour-based food and some of them managed to develop to high extent and receive enormous profits. It is interesting for every student to research the structure of the common bakery and learn about the possible ways of its development and growth. A well-organized bakery case study is supposed to be informative, logical and interesting. A student should learn about the suggested problem related with the bakery and define the reason of this problem. Moreover, it is important to find out about the effect of the problem and weigh its consequences for the business.

If a student wants to demonstrate his professional skills, he should brainstorm the most effective methods which will solve the problem once for all.If one does not have case study writing experience, he should take advantage of the high-quality writing assistance of the Internet. There one can find a good free example case study on bakery and improve his knowledge about the topic and the ways of paper writing. Moreover, if a free sample case study on bakery is written by an expert, it is will be a good experience for students who have troubles with formatting and composition of the paper.

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Acquisition Case Study: Struggling Bakery

Wolf Industrial Advisors (WIA) helps your businesses as a partner and guide through transitions. Wolf Industrial Advisors brings 30+ years of experience helping grow major companies around the world.

Founder Steve Wolf has overseen more than 1500 projects and recovered more than $2 billion in assets for clients. We help businesses grow, restructure or wind down, offering unique approaches that include both funding and operational support.

One of our clients, Penn Street Bakery and their sister company Savory Foods Fundraising , faced many challenges and financial struggles during the COVID-19 pandemic. The owner suffered from health complications and hospitalization due to coronavirus so the management team fell apart.

Sales began to drop drastically as there was no structure in place from lack of a management team and the banks began to worry that they would have to permanently close their doors.

Just in time to save the business and keep them from going under, Steve Wolf, founder of WIA, stepped in to fund and close the deal within only 5 days. In difficult times, Wolf Industrial has a solution.

Because of WIA’s knowledge, hard work and dedication to their mission, the business began to thrive and flourish. The team of employees quadrupled. They grew from 20 to 98 employees in just 6 months.

Production volume also quadrupled. Penn Street Bakery went from inconsistent orders to making and shipping out 80,000 cookies per day.

Penn Street Bakery and their sister company Savory Foods Fundraising now continue to expand and prosper because of WIA’s acquisition and network of industry knowledge.

Success stories like these are made possible through the expertise of WIA. With over 30+ years of experience helping businesses grow, we want to see you and your business thrive.

If your business is in need of help, don’t hesitate to reach out and get back on the right track. Contact Steve and schedule a consultation to learn more about how his expertise can work for your organization today.

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How to Start a Bakery Business from Home: The Ultimate Guide

Step 1. Understanding bakery regulations and compliance

Step 2. market research for a baking business, step 3. creating your business plan, step 4. legal and administrative setup, step 5. financial planning to start a baking business, step 6. developing a compelling business name and logo, step 1. evaluating commercial spaces, step 2. acquiring essential bakery equipment, step 3. designing the bakery layout and customer seating, step 4. product development, step 1. developing your online presence, step 2. promoting your baking business, step 3. staffing your bakery, step 4. opening your bakery, step 5. growth and expansion, succeeding in the baking business.

Do you dream of owning a bakery? Learning how to start a baking business can turn that dream into a delicious reality. This guide will walk you through essential steps like understanding regulations, market research, business planning, and securing the right licenses. Let’s start this sweet journey together and lay the foundation for your successful bakery venture.

How profitable is a baking business?

Can I start a bakery with no money?

How do I start a successful baking business?

Do home bakeries make money?

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Stage 1: Starting a baking business

Starting a baking business begins with understanding regulations, researching your market, and creating a solid   business plan. You must focus on each of these steps to ensure your business is on the right track from day one.

You need to know the key regulations and compliance requirements before starting your baking business. The   first step   is to get   permits and licenses . Depending on your location, you might need a local business license, health department permit, and zoning approval.

Cottage food laws   are another important aspect. These laws allow   homebakers   to sell their goods while operating from their home kitchen. Check with your state for specific rules about what you can bake and sell from home.

Food safety certifications   are crucial. They ensure that you are following safe food handling practices. Enroll in a food safety course to learn about hygiene, proper storage, and preventing contamination.

Conducting thorough   market research   is essential to identify opportunities and avoid pitfalls when starting a baking business. Start by analyzing your   target market . Who are your potential customers? Look at their demographics, preferences, and spending habits.

Once you know your target audience, the next step is to find your   niche . This could specialize in gluten-free goods, vegan treats, or artisanal bread. A clearly defined niche helps you stand out in the crowded baking market.

Use surveys and competitor analysis to gauge demand and identify gaps in the market. Understanding what works and what doesn’t can save you time and money.

A detailed business plan   is crucial for success. It acts as a roadmap and helps secure funding if necessary. Start with a clear   mission statement   that defines your business’s purpose and goals.

Outline your   market analysis , detailing your target market, competitors, and unique selling proposition. This section shows that you have done your homework and understand the market landscape.

Include an   operations plan   covering daily activities, staffing needs, and production processes. Finally, add   financial projections . Estimate your startup costs, revenue, and expenses to provide a clear financial roadmap for your business.

Setting up the legal and administrative aspects of your baking business is crucial. You’ll need to secure the right licenses and permits, choose the appropriate business structure, and ensure your business is well-insured.

Securing necessary licenses and permits

To   start a bakery business, you must get the necessary licenses and permits. First, apply for a   business license   from your local government. This allows you to operate legally in your area.

Next, you may need a   health permit . This ensures your bakery meets health and safety standards. Contact your local health department for specific requirements.

Check if you need a   sales tax permit . This is especially important if you plan to sell goods directly to customers. Also, remember to secure any additional permits specific to baked goods, like a   food handler’s permit .

Choosing your business structure

Choosing the proper business structure is important for your bakery’s success. You might consider a   sole proprietorship for your baking business, which is easy to set up and gives you control. However, it doesn’t offer personal liability protection.

An   LLC (Limited Liability Company)   could be a better option. It provides liability protection, meaning your personal assets are safe if your bakery business faces legal issues. An   LLC   also offers tax benefits.

If you plan to expand, consider forming a   corporation . Though more complex, it allows for easier capital raising and scalability. Consulting a lawyer can help you make the best choice for your specific situation.

Insuring your baking business

Business insurance is vital to protect your bakery from unforeseen events.   General liability insurance   covers accidents that happen on your premises and any damages your products might cause.

You might also need   property insurance . This covers damage to your bakery’s physical space and equipment. If you have employees, consider getting   workers’ compensation insurance . It covers medical expenses if an employee gets injured at work.

Other important coverages include   product liability insurance   and   business interruption insurance . These help protect against claims related to your baked goods and cover lost income if your baking business closes temporarily. Always consult with an insurance agent to find the best policies for your bakery.

You need to plan your finances carefully as you start your baking business. This includes figuring out how much it will cost to start, where to get funding, and making financial projections for your sales.

Calculating startup costs

To start a baking business, you will need to figure out the initial costs. These include expenses like buying or leasing a storefront, purchasing baking equipment, ingredients, marketing materials, and hiring staff for your bakery’s day-to-day operations.

Examples of startup costs:

• Lease: $2,000 per month
• Ovens and mixers: $10,000
• Ingredients: $500
• Business licenses: $200
• Marketing: $1,000

Add up all these costs to determine the amount of money you will need to launch your baking business. Creating a detailed list will help ensure you have everything covered.

Exploring funding options

Once you know your startup costs, you need to find ways to get the money. Common funding options include personal savings, loans, finding investors, and crowdfunding. Personal savings are the easiest but may not be enough.

Funding sources:

• Loans:   Banks may offer small business loans.
• Investors:   You can look for people willing to invest in your business.
• Crowdfunding:   Platforms like Kickstarter can help you raise money from the public.

Choose the best funding option or combination that suits your bakery’s needs and situation.

Sales forecast and financial projections

Estimating your potential sales is essential to understanding how your baking business will perform financially. Make a sales forecast by predicting how much you will sell in the first six months to a year.

Steps to make financial projections:

• Estimate daily sales based on your prices and expected number of customers.
• Multiply daily sales by the number of days in a month.
• Deduct monthly expenses like rent and salaries from your projected monthly sales.

This will give you an idea of your expected profit or loss. Be realistic with your numbers to avoid future financial problems.

Your baking business name is the first impression customers will have, so it must be memorable and reflect your bakery’s identity.

Start by brainstorming words related to baking, your location, or your own name.

Your logo should convey the essence of your bakery through relevant symbols like cakes, bread, utensils, and colors that evoke warmth and taste, often shades of brown or pastels.

Crafting your unique selling proposition

A unique selling proposition (USP) sets your baking business apart from the competition. Identify what makes your baked goods special.

It could be using organic ingredients, family recipes, or unique flavor combinations.

List these unique aspects. Analyze your competitors to ensure your USP is truly distinctive.

Once identified, weave this USP into all your marketing materials, including your website, social media, packaging, and even your storefront signage.

Ensure your USP is clear and concise so customers quickly understand why they should choose your bakery over others. For example, your USP could be “Home-baked goodness with organic ingredients” or “Decadent, custom cakes for every occasion.”

Use your USP consistently to build strong brand recognition.

Stage 2: Setting up your baking business

When setting up your bakery business, you must find a suitable location, decide whether to operate from a commercial space or your home, acquire the necessary equipment, and design the layout for both efficiency and customer appeal.

First, choose a location that fits your business model. If you plan to open a retail baking business, visibility and foot traffic are crucial. High-traffic areas in busy neighborhoods can attract more customers to your storefront.

Check   zoning regulations   to ensure the area is approved for a bakery. Visit multiple spots and compare rents, amenities, and contract terms. Also, consider spaces that are already equipped for food businesses, which can save you time and money on renovations.

Considering a home baking business option

Home bakeries   can be economical since you save on commercial rent. This is a viable option for small-scale operations or specialty baking.

Check local laws for home-based food businesses. You may need a home kitchen inspection and certain permits. Ensure your home setup can handle the required baking volume without affecting your living space. This option can be especially appealing for those starting on a tight budget or testing the market.

To start baking efficiently, you’ll need   oven(s) , refrigerators, mixers, baking sheets, and other tools. Choosing the right   commercial-grade equipment   is essential for consistent quality and efficiency.

Make a list of everything you’ll need to avoid missing key items. When budgeting, consider buying   used equipment   in good condition to save money. Prioritize items that match your baking needs, whether it’s for a retail, wholesale, or home bakery setup.

Design your bakery layout to maximize workflow. Place equipment to ensure easy access and smooth operations.   Workspace organization   matters—keep your preparation area close to storage and washing areas to streamline tasks.

If you’re setting up a retail baking business, create a welcoming storefront.   Customer seating   can enhance their experience, so plan tables and chairs to fit the space. Ensure the seating area is clean and comfortable to encourage longer visits and higher sales.

Creating a successful bakery begins with developing tasty products and using high-quality ingredients. In this section, you’ll learn how to design a diverse menu and source the best supplies for your baked goods.

Designing a delicious and diverse menu

To attract a wide range of customers, your menu should include a variety of baked goods on your bakery’s menu. Start with a mix of   cakes ,   cookies ,   cupcakes ,   bread ,   pastries ,   pies ,   brownies ,   muffins , and   tarts .

Consider offering both classic flavors and unique creations. A good balance between sweet and savory items also helps. To cater to different dietary needs, you could include gluten-free, vegan, or low-sugar options in your baking business.

Update your menu regularly based on seasonality and customer feedback. Special promotions or limited-edition items can create buzz and draw in more customers.

Sourcing quality ingredients and supplies

High-quality ingredients are crucial for producing delicious baked goods. Establish relationships with reliable suppliers who provide fresh and consistent products.

For better cost management, compare prices from different suppliers and consider buying in bulk. Always prioritize fresh ingredients, like real butter, high-quality chocolate, and fresh fruits.

Don’t forget about packaging materials. Beautiful packaging can enhance the appeal of your products. Invest in sturdy boxes for cakes or cute, branded bags for cookies and pastries.

Stage 3: Building and promoting your online presence

Establishing an online presence with a branded website and social media accounts opens a powerful marketing channel. You can attract business from an untapped source by identifying your target audience and creating tailored content to engage visitors and followers.

Creating a strong online presence is key to attracting customers to your baking business. It involves finding the right website platform and building your business website effectively.

Purchasing a domain name

Choosing the right domain name for your baking business is crucial. It will be a key part of your brand identity and how customers find you online.

Ensure your domain name matches or closely resembles your business name to maintain consistency and brand recognition. Choose a name that’s easy to remember and spell.

If your baking business specializes in certain products, like cupcakes, artisan bread, or wedding cakes, consider incorporating that into the domain name.

Use relevant keywords that reflect your business, such as “bake,” “bakery,” “cakes,” “cupcakes,” etc. Shorter names are easier to remember and type. Avoid complex words or long strings of words. These can be confusing and hard to remember.

Check the availability of your desired domain name on domain registration sites like GoDaddy, Namecheap, or 10Web . Ensure the name is also available on major social media platforms to maintain consistent branding across all channels.

Tips for a great baking business domain name:

• Highlight what makes your baking business unique. For example, if you use organic ingredients, you might include “organic” in your domain.
• If your business is locally focused, including your city or region in the domain name can help attract local customers (e.g., “NYCBakes.com”).
• Play with words related to baking to create a catchy and unique name. For instance, “SweetCrumbs.com” or “BakeDelight.com”.
• Say the name out loud, write it down, and get feedback from friends or potential customers to ensure it resonates and is easy to communicate.
• If possible, choose a .com TLD as it is the most recognized and trusted by consumers.  Consider baking-related TLDs like .bakery, .kitchen, or .cafe if .com is unavailable.

Finding the right website platform

Choosing the right website platform is crucial when starting your baking business’ online presence. Depending on your needs, there are many options available.

Decide whether you want an ecommerce site to sell products or an informational site to showcase your work.

Popular options:

• Shopify:   Great for ecommerce with user-friendly tools and templates.
• WordPress:   Highly customizable with numerous plugins, ideal for both informational and ecommerce needs.
• Squarespace:   Offers sleek, modern templates perfect for showcasing baked goods.

Consider factors such as ease of use, cost, and available features. Look for a platform that supports SEO optimization, mobile responsiveness, and secure payment gateways. This will ensure your website is accessible and secure for customers.

Building your baking business website

Once you’ve chosen a platform, it’s time to build your baking business website site. There are many ways to build a website and set up web hosting at all skill levels and price points. Choosing a website platform and hosting that offers easy-to-use features and tools for building and managing websites makes a big difference.

For example, 10Web allows you to create a professional-quality website and automatically optimize it for performance. You can also use AI to create a new website from scratch or convert any website to WordPress.

Here’s how it works:

• Home:   Welcome visitors with eye-catching visuals and brief introductions.
• Menu:   List your products with descriptions and prices.
• About:   Share your story and what makes your bakery special.
• Contact:   Provide contact information and a form for inquiries.

Building a professional, user-friendly website can significantly enhance your online presence and attract more customers to your bakery.

Marketing your baking business is vital for attracting and retaining customers. An effective strategy involves creating valuable content and engaging with your community online and offline.

Content marketing strategy and SEO

Create a content marketing strategy to draw customers to your bakery. Content can include blog posts, recipes, and customer stories.

Implement keywords relevant to your bakery, like “fresh pastries” or “custom cakes.” Focus on high-quality, informative content.

Google Analytics can help you track what’s working and what isn’t. The goal is to attract organic traffic and turn visitors into loyal customers.

Also, consider email marketing. Send newsletters with bakery updates, special offers, and baking tips. This keeps your audience engaged and informed.

Leveraging social media and community events

Utilize social media platforms like Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter to showcase your baked goods and bakery ambiance.

Post photos of your baking business, run contests, and share behind-the-scenes videos. Use hashtags to increase your reach.

Host community events like baking classes or cupcake contests. Partner with local markets and fairs to set up stalls.

This promotes your bakery and builds a strong, supportive community around your business.

Engage with your followers by responding to comments and messages. This interaction fosters loyalty and trust.

Always maintain a friendly and approachable online presence to attract more customers.

Choosing the right team and providing excellent training are crucial to your bakery’s success. Your staff should be skilled and passionate about baking and excel at customer service.

Hiring a skilled and passionate team

It’s essential to hire staff who love baking as much as you do and have the skills to match.

Start by writing clear job descriptions outlining what you expect regarding baking skills and previous experience. Post these on job boards, social media, and local baking schools.

Interview candidates focusing on both their technical skills and their passion for baking. Consider trial shifts to see how they perform in your baking business.

Look for people who are:

• Experienced bakers
• Detail-oriented
• Passionate about baking
• Good team players

Don’t forget to hire front-of-house staff who can handle customer interactions with warmth and efficiency.

Training for excellence in customer service

Even if your team is skilled, they need proper training to provide excellent customer service.

Start by developing a training manual that outlines key procedures, such as greeting customers, handling complaints, and upselling pastries.

Conduct role-playing exercises to prepare staff for different scenarios they might encounter. Stress the importance of a friendly and helpful attitude.

Key training areas:

• Effective communication
• Handling payments and point-of-sale systems
• Maintaining cleanliness
• Learning your menu inside out

Regular staff meetings and ongoing training sessions can help keep everyone on the same page and improve service quality.

Opening your baking business is an exciting milestone that involves careful planning and organization. You’ll need to plan a launch event and set up your daily operations to ensure everything runs smoothly.

Planning a memorable launch event

A grand opening for your baking business is your chance to make a great first impression on your community. Start by selecting a date when you can comfortably have everything ready.

Advertise the event through social media, flyers, and word of mouth.

Invite local influencers, food critics, and community members to increase visibility. Offer samples of your best products and consider having a few special promotions or giveaways.

Organizing a ribbon-cutting ceremony to attract local media attention is also helpful.

Preparing a small speech to thank attendees and share your vision for the bakery can also add a personal touch.

This is your opportunity to showcase what makes your bakery unique and worth visiting.

Establishing daily operations and workflow

Establishing an efficient workflow is crucial once your baking business is up and running.

Begin by assigning tasks clearly to staff members, ensuring that each person knows their responsibilities. For example, bakers should start early to prepare loaves and pastries, while front-of-house staff handles customer service.

Maintain cleanliness and safety by scheduling regular cleanings of equipment and surfaces.

Be prepared for regular health inspections to ensure you comply with local health and safety regulations.

Ensure that all utilities, such as electricity, water, and gas, function smoothly and securely.

Create a daily operations checklist that includes opening and closing procedures, inventory checks, and maintenance duties. This will help your bakery run smoothly every day.

To grow and expand your baking business, you must focus on increasing your reach and maintaining high quality. You’ll also need strategies to scale your operations and keep your creativity alive.

Strategies for growing your bakery business

Increase your product range:   Start by offering new items or seasonal specials. This will help attract new customers and keep loyal ones excited.

Find new sales channels:   Consider selling your products online, at local markets, or through catering services. More sales channels mean more potential customers.

Upgrade equipment:   Investing in better equipment can help you produce more efficiently and maintain high quality. Look for tools that can handle larger batches.

Staff training:   Ensure your staff is well-trained to handle the growth. Consider hiring more employees as needed. Training should focus on maintaining quality and customer service.

Financial management:   Keep a close eye on your budget and cash flow. Use accounting software to track expenses and revenues. Make sure you have enough funds to support growth without overextending yourself.

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9 Case Study Examples, Plus a Useful Case Study Template

Writing a case study can help you pitch your services to prospective clients. Learn how to write one by studying successful examples and using a free template.

If you can write a résumé, you can write a case study. Just as a résumé shows potential employers how your experience can benefit their team, a case study highlights an existing client’s success story to demonstrate your business or product’s value to prospective clients.

A compelling case study includes relevant data without overwhelming your reader, considers the customer’s perspective, and demonstrates how you handled a specific challenge.

The best way to learn how to write one is by reading a stellar business case study example.

What is a case study?

A case study is a document business-to-business (B2B) companies use to illustrate how their product or service helped a client achieve their goals. A winning case study introduces the featured client, gives a brief description of their challenge or goal, and showcases the results they achieved with your help.

Businesses that provide software, tools, or consulting services often provide case studies to potential customers trying to choose between several options.

A company’s marketing team is typically responsible for writing case studies, but if you have a small business without a dedicated marketing team, don’t worry. Anyone can write a case study, and it’s a straightforward process if you use a template.

Why should you create a case study?

A case study brings your product or service to life for future customers with real-world examples. These success stories offer tangible results. Case studies are, thus, a form of social proof , but their power goes beyond a mere testimonial or review.

Since B2B services often are expensive and require approval from multiple decision-makers, typical forms of social proof often aren't enough to convince potential customers. Business customers want to be able to share compelling data with their teams, and that’s where the case study is beneficial.

How to write a case study

• Choose a template
• Interview your client or customer
• Describe the situation
• Identify the solution
• Present the results

1. Choose a template

You don’t necessarily need a template to write a case study, but it can make the process easier—especially if you haven’t written one before or need to write several at once.

You’ll notice that most business case studies take the same general format; after inputting the basics into the template, you can add your own personal flair. (That is, your branding and voice.)

2. Interview your client or customer

The client or customer interview is the heart of the case study. Identify several current or past clients willing to chat with you about their experiences. Look for repeat customers and those who reached out independently to tell you how much they enjoyed your product or service.

A phone interview is the best way to get conversational quotes, but you can correspond via email if your subject is short on time. Not sure what to ask? When social advertising agency Biddyco interviewed the VP of Marketing at Fellow , they asked him the following questions , according to their case study:

• What were the obstacles that would have prevented you from choosing/hiring Biddyco?
• What have you found as a result of hiring Biddyco?
• What specific feature or thing do you like most about Biddyco’s services?
• Would you recommend Biddyco and why?

The goal of the interview is to better understand your client’s experience with your product or service and grab a soundbite you can use as a testimonial in your case study. If you didn’t work directly with the client, you may also want to interview someone on your team who did to get more context.

3. Describe the situation

Give context to your case study with a brief description of the client’s business and the desired outcome that led them to seek your product or service. You can follow this general formula:

[Client’s name] is a [type of business] with [unique feature]. [Client’s name] came to [your business] seeking [client’s desired outcome] while [requirement].

Here’s an example of a one-sentence situation summary in the case study for Sharma Brands ’ client Feastables:

“Feastables, a better-for-you snacks company, came to us in need of a team to take the DTC setup off their plate.”

Advertising company Adgile, which created moving billboards for the non-alcoholic aperitif brand Ghia , has a longer description in its case study that provides background on the marketplace, but the heart of it is this:

“Ghia was seeking creative ways to break through the clutter of a crowded—and big-budgeted—adult beverage market, all while managing customer acquisition cost (CAC).”

4. Identify the solution

This section can vary depending on your field. Also described as “the action,” “the work,” or “the strategy,” the solution describes the strategic insights your company brought to your client’s problem or how your customer used your product to achieve their goals.

The basic formula: [Client’s name] partnered with [your business] to [service received].

Here’s an example from email marketing software Klaviyo’s case study featuring olive oil brand Graza:

“Graza uses Klaviyo’s granular segmentation tools to send automated flows and promotional campaigns to small, targeted groups of customers based on purchase frequency.”

This section describes exactly which of Klaviyo’s features Graza used (granular segmentation) and how they used it (to send automated flows to small, targeted groups), without getting into any outcomes or results yet.

5. Present the results

This section is where you’ll win over prospective customers and build trust. The basic formula is:

[Client’s name] used [service received] to [desired outcome].

Share how your product or service positively affected the client’s business, whether that’s cost savings, more clients, or improved company culture. According to a case study from community platform TYB, the results it delivered for skin care company Dieux were as follows:

“Dieux was able to create thousands of authentic, personalized referrals ahead of its new product launch plus live out its brand promise of transparency.”

Depending on your product or service, your results may include quantifiable outcomes (like thousands of referrals), intangibles (like living out your brand promise), or both, as in the case of TYB.

Real-world examples of case studies

Sharma brands for feastables, adgile media group for ghia, meta for lulus, tyb for dieux, biddyco for fellow, outline for heyday canning, klaviyo for graza, culture amp for bombas, kustomer for thirdlove.

A great way to write a case study is to look at a sample case study—or better yet, many. You’ll notice that wildly different businesses have case studies that follow roughly the same structure, which is why we recommend using one of our free case study templates to write yours. Learn from this mix of business, design, and marketing case study examples:

Sharma Brands is a branding agency founded by Nik Sharma , “The DTC Guy.” Sharma Brands keeps its case study featuring snack company Feastables short and sweet, breaking it down into three chronological sections: the situation, the work, and the outcome.

The Sharma Brands case study is a good example of how to incorporate meaningful results without sharing actual numbers (which the client may not wish to make public) or getting into an in-depth analysis.

Instead of metrics, Sharma Brands lists the tasks it executed: 

• “Successfully launched their DTC site.” 
• “Simultaneously launched on GoPuff with no downtime.”

It also lists some general achievements: 

• “Broke Shopify records in the first 24 hours of launch.” 
• “All revenue and engagement metrics were highly exceeded.”

Adgile Media Group creates outdoor advertising by providing brands with mobile billboards. Unlike traditional outdoor advertising, Adgile also tracks the digital impact of its IRL campaigns.

Adgile’s case study featuring the non-alcoholic beverage brand Ghia is the perfect place to show off the metrics it collects, like:

• 78% homepage visit lift
• 91% conversion lift
• 82% lift on its Find Us page
• Increase in brand awareness and recall, more than 75% over the competition

Meta, the social media and digital advertising platform, does something in its case studies that every company can replicate. Instead of saving the numbers for the results section, Meta provides a brief overview near the top. This breaks up the text visually, provides a quick snapshot for anyone who doesn’t want to read the full case study, and intrigues those curious to know how they achieved those numbers.

Meta’s case study for the clothing company Lulus starts by teasing its most impressive stat:

“The women’s fashion ecommerce company compared the performance of a Meta Advantage+ shopping campaign with Advantage+ catalog ads versus its usual ad campaign setup and saw a 47% increase in return on ad spend using the Advantage+ products.”

It then presents three key figures in a visually appealing design, drawing clear attention to the impact it had on this customer.

TYB is a community platform that rewards fans for creating user-generated content . TYB’s case study for Dieux details how the skincare brand used its platform to involve customers in product testing.

It also does something small worth noting: Instead of sticking the call to action at the bottom of the case study, TYB places a “request demo” button at the top of the page. That way, anyone compelled by the results of the case study can take the next step immediately.

Advertising agency Biddyco took a unique approach to its case study for the coffee- and tea-gear company Fellow . Unlike other business case study examples that use the typical situation-solution-results format, Biddyco structured its case study as an extended testimonial, with a series of questions like, “What specific feature or thing do you like most about Biddyco’s services?”

In addition to client feedback, Biddyco also highlights a few key accomplishments under the heading “All You Really Need to Know.”

A branding studio like Outline won’t approach case studies in the same way an advertising platform like Meta would. What matters here isn’t cost per impression or ROAS, it’s how everything looks.

That’s why Outline’s case study for ​​ Heyday Canning is relatively light on words and heavy on imagery. If your work is more visual than numerical, your case study is a great place to show your behind-the-scenes process.

For example, Outline shows the label design alongside images of the cans on the shelf and provides a brief description of the design inspiration. This example shows how you can have a design-focused case study that still tells a compelling story.

Klaviyo , an email marketing software company, puts numbers front and center in its case study for the olive oil company Graza . If your product or service involves tracking metrics like email open rates, revenue, and click rates, highlight those stats in a larger font size, as Klaviyo did.

Klaviyo’s case study for Graza also shows you don’t necessarily need to fix a problem to create a great case study; you can also simply help your client achieve their goals. According to Klaviyo’s case study, Graza’s challenge was to create strong customer relationships.

How do you write a compelling case study if your service doesn’t involve tangible metrics or flashy design? For the performance management software company Culture Amp , it’s highlighting key statistics about the subject of its case study , sock company Bombas .

Like Meta and Klaviyo, Culture Amp highlights three numbers in large font. But these numbers are stats about their client Bombas, not Culture Amp’s services: “120+ employees,” “25M+ items donated,” and “$100M+ in revenue for 2018.”

Instead of showing off the results it achieved for Bombas, these numbers let prospective clients know that Culture Amp works with big, important companies on their performance management process.

Choosing a customer relationships management ( CRM ) platform is a big decision. Switching platforms—as bra company ThirdLove did in this case study from customer support platform Kustomer—can involve lengthy data migration, customization, and employee onboarding.

That’s why it makes sense that Kustomer’s case study for ThirdLove is a four-page-long PDF and not a blog post. If your case study involves a long, detailed analysis, follow Kustomer’s example and make two versions of your case study.

The first page is an executive summary, with about a paragraph each describing the challenge and results. If after reading the first page, you want to learn more, you can dive into the rest of the case study, but you don’t have to read the entire thing to get a sense of how Kustomer collaborated with ThirdLove.

Case study examples FAQ

How do you write a simple case study.

To simplify the case-study writing process, download a template. Shopify’s fill-in-the-blanks case study template can help you share your customers’ success stories in an easily digestible, well-designed format.

Why are case studies important for businesses?

For the business reading a case study, the contents can help them decide between different products or services. For the business writing the case study, it’s a chance to connect more deeply with potential customers.

What is an example of a case study?

An example of a case study is a mobile billboard company’s overview of the services it provided to a client. The case study might include an overview of the client's goals and how the advertiser addressed them, plus a list of outcomes—increased website visits, decreased costs per visit, and a rise in brand awareness.

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• A Bakery Management Information System (Bmis) C...

A Bakery Management Information System (Bmis) Case Study :( Hot Loaf Bakery Mbarara Branch

Information Communication Technology (ICI) has played a major role in the day to day running

of companies, organizations and institutions and general life. Through the use of information

technology these companies are able to perform daily activities efficiently and accurately. The

bakery sector too has benefited from this advancement in information Technology. The BMIS

project outlines the formulation of a computerized management information System of any bakery

particularly hot loaf bakery. The project highlights the following;

Problems faced by the current system in carrying out a management information systems, use of

php and it’s related technologies of apache server and JavaScript in validation as an efficient tools

for designing and developing a bakery management information systems that helps to solve the

problems faced by the current system, Ways of making sure that the data or inputs of the current

system can be verified and validated.

It involves the development of a centralized database system using MySQL. It also involves the

process of making access to whatever information as fast as possible. This involves real time

reports. It also shows how the whole system can be made secure to avoid an unauthorized access

to its various resources. Here role based authentication provided by The Apache server is put into

use, therefore the project looks at the various ways and technologies that can be used to

accomplish the goal of the whole project. That is to provide a computerized management  Information system that facilitates or enhances effectiveness and efficiency of all bakery system.

NICKSON, K (2021). A Bakery Management Information System (Bmis) Case Study :( Hot Loaf Bakery Mbarara Branch. Afribary . Retrieved from https://afribary.com/works/a-bakery-management-information-system-bmis-case-study-hot-loaf-bakery-mbarara-branch

NICKSON, KYANKAAGA "A Bakery Management Information System (Bmis) Case Study :( Hot Loaf Bakery Mbarara Branch" Afribary . Afribary, 11 Jun. 2021, https://afribary.com/works/a-bakery-management-information-system-bmis-case-study-hot-loaf-bakery-mbarara-branch. Accessed 23 Jul. 2024.

NICKSON, KYANKAAGA . "A Bakery Management Information System (Bmis) Case Study :( Hot Loaf Bakery Mbarara Branch". Afribary , Afribary, 11 Jun. 2021. Web. 23 Jul. 2024. .

NICKSON, KYANKAAGA . "A Bakery Management Information System (Bmis) Case Study :( Hot Loaf Bakery Mbarara Branch" Afribary (2021). Accessed July 23, 2024. https://afribary.com/works/a-bakery-management-information-system-bmis-case-study-hot-loaf-bakery-mbarara-branch

Document Details

Related works, coffee shop management system, impact of information technology in banking industry (a case study of skye bank enugu), big data analytics: nigerian health sector, ethical hacking and cyber security in telecommunication industry, inventory management system, the poor and the mobile related spending in jigawa state, design and implementation of airline flight information system (a case study of air nigeria, lagos state.), the impact of technology based self service banking service quality on customer satisfaction: case of nigeria banking sector, user acceptability and usability of internet banking in nigeria: case study of zenith bank plc, learning management system for ict subjects.

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• Published: 10 July 2024

Assessing land-use changes and carbon storage: a case study of the Jialing River Basin, China

• Shuai Yang 1 ,
• Liqin Li 2 ,
• Renhuan Zhu 3 , 4 ,
• Chao Luo 5 ,
• Xiong Lu 6 ,
• Mili Sun 2 &
• Benchuan Xu 7  

Scientific Reports volume  14 , Article number:  15984 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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• Environmental sciences

Land-use change is the main driver of carbon storage change in terrestrial ecosystems. Currently, domestic and international studies mainly focus on the impact of carbon storage changes on climate, while studies on the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage in complex terrestrial ecosystems are few. The Jialing River Basin (JRB), with a total area of ~ 160,000 km 2 , diverse topography, and elevation differences exceeding 5 km, is an ideal case for understanding the complex interactions between land-use change and carbon storage dynamics. Taking the JRB as our study area, we analyzed land-use changes from 2000 to 2020. Subsequently, we simulated land-use patterns for business-as-usual (BAU), cropland protection (CP), and ecological priority (EP) scenarios in 2035 using the PLUS model. Additionally, we assessed carbon storage using the InVEST model. This approach helps us to accurately understand the carbon change processes in regional complex terrestrial ecosystems and to formulate scientifically informed land-use policies. The results revealed the following: (1) Cropland was the most dominant land-use type (LUT) in the region, and it was the only LUT experiencing net reduction, with 92.22% of newly designated construction land originating from cropland. (2) In the JRB, total carbon storage steadily decreased after 2005, with significant spatial heterogeneity. This pattern was marked by higher carbon storage levels in the north and lower levels in the south, with a distinct demarcation line. The conversion of cropland to construction land is the main factor driving the reduction in carbon storage. (3) Compared with the BAU and EP scenarios, the CP scenario demonstrated a smaller reduction in cropland area, a smaller addition to construction land area, and a lower depletion in the JRB total carbon storage from 2020 to 2035. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of the PLUS and InVEST models in analyzing complex ecosystems and offers data support for quantitatively assessing regional ecosystem services. Strict adherence to the cropland replenishment task mandated by the Chinese government is crucial to increase cropland areas in the JRB and consequently enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of its ecosystem. Such efforts are vital for ensuring the food and ecological security of the JRB, particularly in the pursuit of the “dual-carbon” objective.

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Introduction.

Land, as the primary arena for human activities, has undergone drastic changes owing to accelerating socioeconomic development, urbanization processes, and natural transformations by human beings 1 , 2 . Land-use change forms the foundation of the study of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, as it directly impacts the original pattern, process, function, and structure of terrestrial ecosystems, thereby altering their carbon storage 3 , 4 . This directly affects climate change predictions, greenhouse gas emissions, and reduction efforts 4 . In the context of the overall spatial planning of the national territory, basins are open and composite systems and the basic unit of a complete ecosystem; moreover, the natural, economic, social, and cultural elements within basins are closely interconnected. Furthermore, basins are characterized by diverse natural landscapes, clear hierarchical structures, and holistic characteristics 2 . Taking a basin as a research area breaks traditional administrative boundaries. This approach allows for seeking optimal solutions for basin development that balance food production, ecology, environment, and other objectives, contributing to national ecological security construction 5 . Therefore, analyzing land-use changes in basins, predicting future land-use patterns, and quantitatively assessing ecosystem carbon storage are essential for achieving balanced development with multiple objectives in regions characterized by basins 6 .

Land-use simulation models are essential tools for studying future land-use dynamics. These models include quantitative models such as Markov 7 , linear prediction 8 , system dynamics 9 , gray prediction 10 models, and spatial models such as patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) 11 , future land use simulation (FLUS) 12 , cellular automaton (CA) 7 , and conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent (CLUE-S) 13 . The PLUS model compensates for the shortcomings of the CA and CLUE-S models by effectively identifying the driving factors of land-use change and capturing the evolutionary patterns of various patch types. The model enhances the roulette wheel competition process and adaptive inertia within the FLUS model. Moreover, the integrated random forest algorithm of the model can effectively handle spatial autocorrelation and multicollinearity among the driving factors 11 , 14 . Consequently, the PLUS model can more accurately simulate various future land use scenarios and is extensively utilized 11 , 15 . The Markov model is widely used to predict future land-use demand by calculating the conversion probability between different land-use types (LUTs) over time 16 , 17 , 18 . Among all carbon storage assessment methods, the ecosystem functional state assessment and analysis model represented by Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Service and Tradeoffs (InVEST) is highly regarded by scholars owing to the easy access to driving data, simple and convenient operation, high precision in quantitative assessment, and clear spatial representation of the assessment process and results 19 , 20 . The integration of PLUS, Markov, and InVEST models can enable the optimization of spatial layout, the quantitative structure of regional land-use, and the exploration of future carbon storage changing rules in terrestrial ecosystems.

The Jialing River Basin (JRB) connects the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration and the Lanxi urban agglomeration in the north and the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration in the south. It holds a crucial position in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the Silk Road Economic Belt. As one of China’s most important grain-producing regions, the JRB is densely cultivated. The JRB is an essential part of the ecological barrier, a significant water source region, and a key area for biodiversity protection in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in China. However, it is significantly affected by economic development and urbanization under the national macro-policy, leading to drastic land-use changes in the JRB. These changes bring about a series of challenges to food production and ecological security 21 , 22 , 23 . Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems plays a crucial role as carbon sinks. However, changes in carbon storage are primarily influenced by LUT conversion. The carbon sequestration function of terrestrial complex ecosystems has been consistently strengthened through the regulation of LUT conversion, which will aid China in realizing its “dual-carbon” goals. Studying the JRB land-use changes and their impact on carbon storage is vital. Although there have been numerous studies on the effects of land-use/cover changes or human activities on hydrological conditions 24 , soil erosion 25 , biodiversity 26 , and environmental pollution 23 in the JRB, there is a lack of up-to-date studies on historical land-use or carbon storage changes and future land-use simulations or carbon storage assessments.

With the JRB as our research area, our objectives are as follows: (1) reveal the changing patterns of land use at the basin scale; (2) predict land-use status under business-as-usual (BAU), cropland protection (CP), and ecological priority (EP) scenarios in 2035 using the PLUS and Markov models; (3) assess carbon storage from 2000 to 2020 and in 2035 under different scenarios using the InVEST model; and (4) investigate carbon storage distribution and aggregation characteristics from 2000 to 2020 through global spatial autocorrelation analysis (Moran’s I), clustering and outlier analysis (Anselin Local Moran’s I), and cold-hotspot analysis (Getis-Ord G i *). This research aims to provide essential data support for achieving sustainable development in the JRB. Our study revealed that cropland, being the most prominent and the only LUT transferred out of the JRB, is in direct competition with construction land. To realize the coordinated ecological, social, and economic development of the JRB, it is imperative to implement CP policies, increase afforestation and grass-planting efforts, and strictly enforce urban development boundaries.

Materials and methods

The Jialing River is a primary tributary of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River on the left bank, with a total length of 1,345 km. Its water system has a dendritic shape, and most of it flows through the eastern part of the Sichuan Basin, eventually joining the Yangtze River at Chaotianmen in the Yuzhong District of Chongqing Municipality 25 , 27 . Covering a total area of ~ 160,000 km 2 , the JRB (longitude 102° 31′ 51″–109° 16′ 34″, latitude 29° 17′ 29″–34° 31′ 44″) constitutes ~ 9% of the Yangtze River Basin. It spans Shaanxi, Gansu, Sichuan, and Chongqing (Fig.  1 ) 28 .

Location and terrain of the study area.

The JRB is situated in the transition zone from the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau to China’s second-tier terrain, characterized by complex and varied topography. It encompasses the plateau region, mountainous region, hilly region, and basin region, displaying distinct geographic zoning characteristics. The JRB terrain tilts roughly from northwest to southeast, exhibiting a significant gradient change. The elevation difference across the entire JRB exceeds 5 km, resulting in dramatic topographical variations. The river course aligns with the terrain, leading to an elevation difference in the river of ~ 2.3 km and an average drop ratio of 2.05‰ 29 . The JRB traverses multiple climate zones, including the Tibetan Plateau, temperate monsoon, and subtropical monsoon regions. These climate zones exhibit distinct characteristics, with hot and rainy summers and warm and humid winters. The multi-year average daily maximum and minimum temperatures in the JRB are 19.4 °C and 4.3 °C, respectively 30 . Precipitation in the JRB follows a spatial distribution pattern that decreases from southeast to northwest. The multi-year average, maximum, and minimum precipitation levels are 935 mm, 1,283 mm, and 643 mm, respectively 28 , 29 .

Data sources

Land-use data and its driving factors.

The standard Chinese map with the approval number of GS(2024)0650 No. was obtained from the National Platform for Common GeoSpatial Information Services ( https://www.tianditu.gov.cn/ ). Data for the Jialing River, Yangtze River, and their respective basins were provided by the National Cryosphere Desert Data Center ( https://www.ncdc.ac.cn ). Land-use data were obtained from the Resource and Environment Science and Data Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ( https://www.resdc.cn ). This dataset includes six primary land classes, such as cropland and forestland, and 24 secondary land classes, including paddy fields and dry land. Using ArcGIS 10.3 software, we cropped the data according to the vector range of the JRB and reclassified them into six LUTs: cropland, forestland, grassland, water, construction land, and unused land. Subsequently, we generated five land-use raster maps of the JRB for years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Drawing upon relevant studies 1 , 16 , 31 , 32 , we selected 19 driving factors encompassing both natural environmental and socioeconomic aspects. Among these, average annual temperature, average annual precipitation, total phosphorus, total potassium, total nitrogen, and soil organic matter were obtained from the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center ( https://data.tpdc.ac.cn ) and the National Earth System Science Data Center ( https://www.geodata.cn ). Digital elevation model (DEM) data were sourced from the Geospatial Data Cloud ( https://www.gscloud.cn ), while slope data were calculated from the DEM data using ArcGIS 10.3 software. Gross domestic product, population density, and nighttime lighting data were retrieved from the Resource and Environment Science and Data Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ( https://www.resdc.cn ). County (city and district) governmental location data were obtained from OpenStreetMap ( https://www.openstreetmap.org ), and data related to railways, Class I–IV roads, rivers, and settlements were acquired from the National Catalogue Service For Geographic Information ( https://www.webmap.cn ). Using ArcGIS 10.3 software, the projection coordinate system of the land-use data and data on the natural environment and socioeconomic factors were standardized to CGCS2000_GK_Zone_18. Subsequently, the data on roads, rivers, settlements, and county (city and district) governmental sites were subjected to Euclidean distance analysis. All data were converted into raster data (.tif) with a spatial resolution of 30 m × 30 m.

Carbon density data

According to the methodologies outlined by Li et al. 33 , Zhang et al. 34 , Wang et al. 35 , and Xiang et al. 36 for determining carbon density, we collated four datasets on carbon density: Dataset 1 comprised experimentally determined carbon density data on the JRB and its neighboring regions. A dataset on carbon density in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems (2010s) 37 obtained from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences was processed in ArcGIS 10.3 to extract carbon density measurements in the study area and its surroundings. In addition, we utilized carbon density data obtained by Xia et al. 38 and Xia et al. 39 . Dataset 2 comprised carbon density data on the JRB, and it was collected from Zhang et al. 40 . Dataset 3 comprised carbon density data on the surrounding areas of the JRB, and it was collected from Xiang et al. 36 . The data were corrected for carbon density using the mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation correction models 41 . Dataset 4 comprised carbon density data on the climatic zone of the study area, and it was collected from Liu et al. 42 . Finally, we analyzed the collected carbon density data to remove outliers, and then took the average of the carbon density of each component for each LUT as the carbon pool data for the InVEST model (Table 1 ).

The research flowchart of the simulation and assessment of land-use changes and carbon storage in this paper is shown in Fig.  2 .

The research framework of this study.

Multi-scenario setting

According to policy documents such as the Territorial Spatial Plan (2021–2035) of Shaanxi Province, Gansu Province, Sichuan Province, and Chongqing Municipality (municipalities directly under the central government) where the JRB is situated, we established the simulation timeframe for future land use in the JRB as the year 2035. The JRB, an important ecological reserve and grain-producing region in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, predominantly consists of cropland, forestland, and grassland as its land use types. Drawing on the land use scenario simulation studies conducted by Zhang et al. 40 within the JRB and by Yang et al. 43 in the surrounding areas, we established the BAU, CP, and EP scenarios for the future land use of the JRB. The specifics of these scenarios are described as follows:

The BAU scenario was constructed based on land-use change ratios, socioeconomic factors, and natural environmental drivers from 2015 to 2020, without considering policy planning constraints. The Markov model was employed to predict the future demand for various LUTs, and the LUT demand served as a parameter for land-use demand in the PLUS model 2 . This scenario formed the basis for setting other scenarios.

The CP scenario was built upon the BAU scenario according to the setup parameters presented in Li et al. 19 , Wang et al. 44 , and Li et al. 45 . In this scenario, the Markov transfer probability matrix was adjusted. The conversion probability of cropland to construction land was reduced by 65% to rigorously enforce CP policies.

The EP scenario was developed based on the BAU scenario according to the setup parameters presented in Li et al. 16 , Wang et al. 44 , and Li et al. 45 . In this scenario, through the modification of the Markov transfer probability matrix, the conversion probabilities of forestland and grassland to construction land were 50% lower than that in the BAU scenario, while the conversion probability of water to construction land was 30% lower. Additionally, the ecological capacity of cropland was weaker than that of forestland. Therefore, the probability of cropland being converted into construction land was 25% lower than that in the BAU scenario.

Markov model

The Markov model, based on the Markov chain process, is a statistical method for predicting future probability, and it is characterized by the non-aftereffect property, stochasticity, discreteness, and stationarity 16 , 46 . It predicts future land-use change trends using initial state and transfer probability matrices 19 . The formula for the model is as follows:

where \({S}_{t}\) and \({S}_{t+1}\) are the land-use states at \(t\) and \(t+1\) , respectively; \({P}_{ij}\) is the transfer probability of LUT \(i\) to \(j\) during the study period.

To minimize errors generated by the Markov model in long time series, in this study, the LUT demand under each scenario was predicted sequentially at five-year intervals, that is, for 2025, 2030, and 2035.

PLUS model, key parameter setting, model validation

The PLUS model enables the generation of land-use change simulations using raster data patches, allowing for the exploration of causal factors influencing various LUT changes and the simulation of changes at the patch level 11 . This model comprises two modules: a rule-mining framework based on a land expansion analysis strategy (LEAS) and a CA model based on multi-type random patch seeds (CARS) 11 . The LEAS module can extract and sample land-use expansion between two periods of land-use change, employing the random forest algorithm to mine and acquire development probabilities and the contribution ratios of drivers for various LUTs 47 . Under the constraints of development probabilities, the CARS module simulates the automatic generation of patches by combining randomly generated seeds and employing decreasing threshold mechanisms 48 .

Neighborhood weight setting

Neighborhood weight indicates the expansion capacity of various LUTs, with values ranging from 0 to 1 19 . This study determined the parameters for neighborhood weights for different scenarios according to the expansion area share of various LUTs 49 , combined with insights from related studies (see Table 2 ) 33 , 50 .

Cost matrix setting

A cost matrix represents the conversion rules between various LUTs. A matrix value of 0 is assigned when one LUT cannot be converted into another, and a matrix value of 1 is assigned when the opposite is true. Table 3 presents the cost matrices for different scenarios.

Restricted region setting

In different scenarios, the river water surface was transformed into a binary image, with 0 indicating the non-transformable region and 1 indicating the transformable region. These images were then input into the PLUS model as restricted factors.

PLUS model validation

To assess the accuracy of land-use simulation results, overall accuracy (OA), and the figure of merit (FoM) coefficient were employed. An OA approaching 1 indicates higher simulation accuracy, with an OA value of > 0.75 indicating a reliable simulation 48 , while a smaller FoM value indicates higher simulation accuracy 51 . The formula for FoM is as follows 52 :

where Misses is the area of error due to reference change simulated as persistence; Hits is the area correctly identified as change resulting from reference change; Wrong Hits is the area of error due to reference change simulated as change to the wrong category; False Alarms is the area of error due to reference persistence simulated as change.

Consequently, based on land-use data from 2015, the simulation data for 2020 generated by the PLUS model prediction were compared with the actual data. The results revealed an OA of 0.9961, and an FoM coefficient of 0.0232, indicating that the model can accurately simulate future land-use changes in the JRB.

• Carbon storage
• InVEST model

The carbon module of the InVEST model assumes that various LUTs correspond to total carbon density, which consists of belowground carbon density, aboveground carbon density, dead organic matter carbon density, and soil organic matter carbon density. The model considers the carbon density of various LUTs to be constant 53 . The calculation formula is as follows:

In formulas ( 3 ) and ( 4 ), \(i\) denotes the i -th LUT; \({C}_{i}\) is the total carbon density of LUT I ; \({C}_{i-above}\) , \({C}_{i-below}\) , \({C}_{i-dead}\) , and \({C}_{i-soil}\) are the aboveground, belowground, dead organic matter, and soil organic matter carbon densities of LUT I , respectively; \({C}_{i-total}\) is the total carbon storage of LUT I ; n is the total number of LUTs; and \({S}_{i}\) is the area of LUT I .

Spatial correlation analysis

Spatial autocorrelation is a common method used to test whether the attribute values of elements are spatially correlated and the degree of spatial relevance 49 . This measure helps identify the extent to which attributes are clustered or dispersed. According to previous studies 49 , 54 , 55 , to account for the actual conditions in the JRB and the complexity of data processing, a grid of 9 km × 9 km was generated, along with grid points within the study area, using ArcGIS 10.3. Carbon storage data were linked with the grid to obtain the carbon storage value for each grid point. At the grid scale, global autocorrelation results were derived by calculating the spatial autocorrelation Global Moran’s I index. Subsequently, outlier or clustering location maps (i.e., local indicators of spatial association [LISA] clustering maps) were generated through clustering and outlier analysis. Finally, cold-hotspot analysis was employed to study the spatial distribution pattern of high-value and low-value carbon storage clusters in the JRB, aiding in the detection of unusual events. Detailed formulas and additional information on spatial autocorrelation analysis can be found in the literature 56 , 57 .

Land-use changes, 2000–2020

From 2000 to 2020, the JRB was primarily composed of cropland, forestland, and grassland, accounting for more than 43%, 32%, and 21% of the total basin area, respectively (Table 4 ). The remaining LUTs covered smaller areas, each accounting for less than 2% of the total basin area. Each LUT area underwent varying degrees of change, with the most significant change occurring in cropland areas, which continued to decrease, resulting in a total reduction of 1536.98 km 2 or 2.16%. Conversely, the water and construction land areas continued to increase, with additional values of 107.24 and 1087.94 km 2 , representing increases of 6.77% and 66.40%, respectively. The areas of forestland, grassland, and unused land also generally increased, with additional values of 239.89, 49.10, and 52.81 km 2 , corresponding to increases of 0.46%, 0.14%, and 11.10%, respectively. These changes were primarily due to rapid urbanization in the JRB, leading to significant encroachment of construction land on cropland. Additionally, the national policy of “returning cropland to forest for grass” resulted in the conversion of cropland to forestland and grassland. Moreover, the state’s comprehensive promotion of ecological restoration and protection in the Yangtze River Basin played a crucial role in increasing the water area.

Cropland was mainly concentrated in the Sichuan Basin in the south of JRB, and it was also distributed in the eastern, northern, and central regions (Fig.  3 ). Forestland was predominantly situated in the mountainous areas surrounding the Sichuan Basin, as well as in the middle and upper reaches of the JRB. Grassland was mainly found in the middle and upper reaches of the JRB. Construction land was primarily located on both sides of the river in the middle and lower reaches of the JRB, while unused land was situated at higher elevations in the northwest of the basin.

Land-use spatiotemporal distribution in the JRB from 2000 to 2020.

A total of 1673.27 km 2 of cropland in the JRB underwent changes from 2000 to 2020, with 61.11% of cropland being converted into construction land, while 136.29 km 2 was transformed into cropland (Fig.  4 ). Forest land experienced an addition of 451.75 km 2 and a loss of 211.86 km 2 . Grassland experienced an addition of 377.70 km 2 and a loss of 328.59 km 2 . Water area experienced an addition of 116.82 km 2 and a loss of 9.58 km 2 . Construction land experienced an addition of 1108.84 km 2 , of which 92.22% was from cropland, and a loss of 20.91 km 2 . The net increase in the areas of forestland, grassland, water, and construction land accounted for 15.61%, 3.19%, 6.98%, and 70.78% of the total net increase in area, respectively. This indicates that the significant decrease in cropland area was primarily due to its conversion into construction land. The conversion of forestland and grassland into cropland also contributed to the decrease in cropland area.

Sankey map of land-use transfer for the JRB, 2000–2020 (km 2 ).

Carbon storage spatiotemporal changes, 2000–2020

Carbon storage in the JRB first increased and then decreased over the years from 2000 to 2020, reaching its peak in 2005 (Table 5 ). The carbon storage values in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 (i.e., five-year intervals) were 2,231.06, 2,232.98, 2,232.10, 2,228.94, and 2,227.18 × 10 6 t, respectively. This represents a total decrease of 3.88 × 10 6 t, with an average decrease of 0.17%. Carbon storage changes differed among various LUTs. Cropland, forestland, and grassland were the most essential carbon pools in the JRB, each accounting for more than 30% of the total carbon storage. Together, they comprised over 98% of the total carbon storage, and their combined values continued to decrease over time. The combined highest and lowest carbon storage values of these three LUTs were 2,197.85 × 10 6 (in 2000) and 2,186.85 × 10 6 t (in 2020), representing 98.51% and 98.19% of the total, respectively. Cropland carbon storage decreased by 2.16% from 2000 to 2020, while water and construction land carbon storage increased by 6.77% and 66.40%, respectively, from 2000 to 2020. The carbon storage of forestland, grassland, and unused land initially increased and then decreased over the years from 2000 to 2020, with overall increases of 0.46%, 0.14%, and 11.10%, respectively.

The distribution of carbon storage was strongly correlated with LUT (Fig.  5 ), with higher carbon storage values in the north and lower values in the south. High-value regions were predominantly located in the northwestern and northern mountainous regions, while low-value regions were mostly situated in the hilly areas of the Sichuan Basin.

Spatiotemporal distribution of carbon storage in the JRB from 2000 to 2020.

Different LUT conversions impacted carbon storage owing to the effects of various LUT transfers and differences in carbon density (Fig.  6 ). Among these, the carbon storage changes in cropland, forestland, grassland, water, and construction land accounted for 71.70%, 8.79%, 17.90%, 0.32%, and 1.02% of the total changes, respectively. Carbon storage changes in cropland from 2000 to 2020 primarily reflected the conversion of cropland into construction land, grassland, and forestland. Carbon storage changes in forestland mainly resulted from the conversion of forestland into construction land, cropland, and grassland. Carbon storage changes in grassland were mainly driven by the conversion of grassland into forestland, cropland, and construction land. Carbon storage changes in water mainly stemmed from the conversion of water into construction land and grassland. Carbon storage changes in construction land were primarily due to conversions into cropland, forestland, and water.

( a ) Proportions of carbon storage variation and ( b ) carbon storage variations in the conversions of different LUTs in the JRB, 2000–2020.

Carbon storage spatial correlation analysis from 2000 to 2020

Global spatial autocorrelation analysis of the JRB carbon storage was conducted to obtain the Global Moran’s I index for the five time points from 2000 to 2020 (Table 6 ). Under a 0.01 significance test level, the Z -score values for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were all greater than the test threshold value of 2.58, indicating a highly significant result. The Global Moran’s I index values of 0.9076, 0.9078, 0.9089, 0.9081, and 0.9094 for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were > 0, indicating that the spatial distribution of the JRB carbon storage exhibited apparent aggregation. The Global Moran’s I index gradually increased over time, reaching extremely high values in 2010 and 2020, suggesting that the spatial distribution of carbon storage in the JRB showed fluctuating but overall strengthening agglomeration trends.

To further analyze the spatial clustering patterns of carbon storage distribution in the JRB, a spatial LISA clustering map was constructed using local autocorrelation analysis (Fig.  7 ). The clustering of carbon storage was characterized by high levels in the north and low levels in the south. The “high–high” clustering region was relatively scattered, mainly distributed in JRB’s northwestern area. The “low–low” clustering region was more concentrated, mainly in JRB’s middle and lower reaches. Neither the “high–high” nor the “low–low” clustering regions changed significantly over time.

LISA agglomeration diagram of carbon storage in the JRB, 2000–2020.

To further investigate the spatial location and degree of high-value and low-value clusters of carbon storage in the JRB, a cold-hotspot analysis was conducted (Fig.  8 ). The results indicated that the cold spots and hot spots of carbon storage in the JRB were clustered with significant cold-hotspot effects and had a high degree of spatial differentiation. No transformation occurred between cold spots and hot spots. Carbon storage hot spots were distributed relatively scatteredly, mainly in JRB’s upper and northwestern regions. This distribution was primarily due to forestland and grassland dominating the region, with significant terrain undulations, high elevation, relatively low temperature, and precipitation. The state vigorously implemented ecosystem protection and restoration measures in the region, resulting in a rich and high coverage of vegetation types. Carbon storage cold spots were concentrated and stable, distributed in JRB’s middle and lower reaches in a centralized manner. This concentration was attributed to the region’s flat terrain and the presence of extensive agricultural lands in the Chengdu–Chongqing economic circle in southwest China. Strong human activities and rapid urban development in the region led to the spread of urban living space, directly encroaching upon cropland, which served certain ecological functions, and forestland, grassland, and other ecological lands.

Cold-spot and hot-spot distribution of carbon storage in the JRB from 2000 to 2020.

Land use and carbon storage changes under various scenarios

A study of land use and carbon storage in the JRB from 2020 to 2035 revealed (Figs. 9 and 10 ) that under different scenarios, the area of water and construction land and their carbon storage increased, while that of the remaining LUTs decreased. These changes mostly occurred in the hilly regions of the Sichuan Basin in JRB’s middle and lower reaches, and the spatial distribution of LUTs and carbon storage generally remained the same.

Changes in land-use area and carbon storage under various scenarios in the JRB, 2020–2035. ( a ) LUT area change; ( b ) percentage of LUT area change; ( c ) carbon storage change.

Land-use and carbon storage spatial distribution of the JRB in 2035 under various scenarios. ( a ), ( b ), and ( c ) were land-use spatial distribution under the BAU scenario, the CP scenario, and the EP scenario, respectively; ( d ), ( e ), and ( f ) were carbon storage spatial distribution under the BAU scenario, the CP scenario, and the EP scenario, respectively.

Under the BAU scenario, the area of construction land increased by 769.38 km 2 (or 28.22%) over time from 2020 to 2035, while cropland, forestland, and grassland areas decreased by 637.18, 164.05, and 17.09 km 2 , or 0.91%, 0.32%, and 0.05%, respectively (Fig.  9 a,b). Carbon storage reduction driven by the conversion from cropland and forestland into other LUTs was 6.44 × 10 6 and 2.40 × 10 6 t, respectively (Fig.  9 c). Carbon storage increased by only 3.53 × 10 6 t owing to construction land expansion, and JRB’s total carbon storage decreased by 5.18 × 10 6 t. Without any policy constraints, construction land expansion was mainly based on the status quo of the original distribution, and construction land continued to extend along the river bank (Figs. 3 e and 10 a), mainly occupying cropland, forestland, and other LUTs with ecological functions to meet socioeconomic development needs. Cropland and forestland became the main areas converted into other LUTs, posing risks to food production and ecological security.

Under the CP scenario, construction land area increased by 275.21 km 2 (or 10.09%) compared with construction land area in 2020, while cropland, forestland, and grassland area decreased by 142.46, 164.56, and 17.15 km 2 , or 0.20%, 0.32%, and 0.05%, respectively (Fig.  9 a,b). Carbon storage decreased by 2.41 × 10 6  and 1.44 × 10 6 t owing to the loss of forestland and cropland, respectively, and increased by 1.26 × 10 6 t owing to an increase in construction land (Fig.  9 c). The total decrease in carbon storage in the JRB (2.45 × 10 6 t) was smaller than those of other scenarios. Most basin cropland was in direct spatial competition with construction land because they were distributed close to each other (Figs. 3 e and 10 b). Therefore, cropland protection corresponded to constrained construction land development. Overall, the CP scenario slowed down cropland conversion while having positive effects on ecological protection.

Under the EP scenario, forestland and grassland areas decreased by 141.71 km 2 (or 0.27%) and 7.88 km 2 (or 0.02%), respectively, over time from 2020 to 2035 (Fig.  9 a,b). Although construction land expansion was pronounced, the expansion rate decreased significantly from 28.22% (the BAU scenario) to 20.03%. Cropland area still decreased, but its decrease amount dropped from 0.91% (the BAU scenario) to 0.64%. The conversions of cropland and forestland resulted in carbon storage reductions of 4.52 × 10 6 and 2.08 × 10 6 t, respectively, while construction land expansion resulted in a carbon storage increase of 2.51 × 10 6 t (Fig.  9 c). Compared with the BAU scenario, the basin’s carbon storage value impairment was lower, at 3.74 × 10 6 t. From the spatial development pattern of LUTs, the decrease in cropland area mainly occurred near construction land (Figs. 3 e and 10 c). In general, under the EP scenario, the conversion of ecological land such as forestland and grassland was somewhat restricted; consequently, cropland was the main type of land that experienced conversion, while reducing construction land encroachment on ecological land contributed to the preservation of the JRB ecological security.

Land-use changes

This paper shows that JRB’s land-use spatial distribution is characterized by evident differentiation. Forestland and grassland are mainly found in JRB’s upper and middle reaches, while cropland and construction land are mostly distributed in JRB’s middle and lower reaches. Similar findings were reported by Xiao et al. 58 for the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) and Wang et al. 59 for the Taihang Mountains. The JRB spans several complex topographic and geomorphic regions, including plateaus, mountains, hills, and basins, with temperature and precipitation gradually increasing from northwest to southeast. Elevation gradually decreases as the river flows. The JRB middle and lower reaches are located in the Sichuan Basin hilly regions, where the terrain is relatively flat, facilitating agricultural and economic activities.

The study found that cropland was the only LUT that decreased in area. Previous studies have suggested that cropland was the LUT that experienced an increase, while only LUTs experienced a decrease, including forestland and unused land 1 , 17 , 41 . The main reason for this trend in the JRB, an important water source and ecological barrier in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, is the systematic implementation of ecological fallowing measures by the government since 1999. These measures include converting cropland to forests, grasslands, and water bodies. Additionally, the development of transportation infrastructure and towns, the expansion of rural residential areas, and the continuous growth of garden land have all contributed to the reduction of cropland area.

Currently, scholars are in dispute over the results of land-use simulations under various scenarios. For example, Wei et al. 17 estimated that in the Ebinur Lake Basin, China, cropland and construction land areas increased significantly over time from 2020 to 2030 under the BAU scenario, while forestland decreased. Conversely, under the EP scenario, cropland and construction land areas decreased, while forestland area increased considerably. Wang et al. 44 estimated that in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, under the BAU scenario, cropland and forestland areas decreased over time from 2020 to 2030, while construction land and grassland areas increased, and under the CP scenario, cropland, grassland, and construction land areas increased. Yang et al. 43 estimated that in Xi’an City, China, under the EP scenario, cropland area decreased over time from 2015 to 2030, while construction land, forestland, and grassland areas increased, and under the CP scenario, construction land area increased, while cropland, forestland, and grassland areas decreased. Our study results show that cropland, forestland, and grassland areas decreased under different scenarios, while construction land area increased significantly, with the smallest amplification in construction land under the CP scenario. A comparison of these studies reveals differences in policies related to territorial spatial planning, economic and social development, and ecological conservation in various study areas. These differences affect the setting of land-use transfer probabilities. Substantial variations in the initial land-use patterns and land-use transfer probabilities in the different study areas lead to differences in land-use simulation results under different scenarios.

Carbon storage changes

Carbon storage in the JRB initially increased and then decreased over time from 2000 to 2020, a trend that aligns with the findings of Gong et al. 4 and Chen et al. 60 . This pattern is primarily attributed to the policy implementation of returning farmland to forests since 2003, resulting in the conversion of cropland to forestland and an increase in carbon storage. However, as urbanization accelerates, rural populations migrate to towns and cities, leading to the expansion of urban boundaries and the constant encroachment into ecologically functional lands around towns and cities. The urban boundaries encroach into a large area of cropland and small areas of forestland and grassland. This ultimately results in a continuous decline in carbon storage.

Our study results show that JRB’s carbon storage was aggregated and generally increased over time; however, the JRB featured no “high–low” or “low–high” clustering region, whereas scholars 32 , 33 , 61 , 62 reported “high–low” and “low–high” clustering patterns for different study regions. Carbon storage high-value and low-value clustering reveal clear distribution boundaries between cold spots and hot spots according to their spatial distribution pattern. These findings differ from those of previous research; for example, Li et al. 33 reported spatial aggregation of carbon storage in Kunming City with fluctuating changes over time. Liang et al. 7 found that cold spots and hot spots in carbon storage on the Loess Plateau represented a small percentage of the total. The cold spots and hot spots exhibited a mosaic and decentralized distribution 7 , 33 . Lin et al. 61 found that the spatial distribution of carbon storage in Guangdong exhibited clustering phenomena, with the degree of agglomeration initially increasing and then decreasing over time. However, the distribution of cold spots and hot spots was scattered, and distinct demarcation lines were lacking. The topography in the northwest of the region is higher, while the southeast of JRB features lower terrain. In the upper reaches of the Jialing River, the landscape consists of meandering courses with deep valleys, whereas the middle reaches exhibit flatter terrain, transitioning from deep hilly regions to shallower hilly areas. In the lower reaches, the main river runs parallel to the eastern part of the Sichuan Basin, forming canyon extensions. The lower basin rises to mountainous terrain. Consequently, the middle and lower reaches of the JRB are characterized by frequent human activities, primarily cropland, leading to lower and patchy carbon storage distribution. In contrast, the topography in the middle and upper reaches of the JRB is dominated by mountainous terrain, including some plateau landforms. These areas feature higher elevations and lower temperatures and precipitation, resulting in a landscape dominated by forestland and grassland. The distribution of forestland and grassland is mosaic-like, which prevents the concentration of high carbon storage regions in a patchy manner. The marginal mountain region of the Sichuan Basin forms a strongly ascending fold belt with significant relative elevation differences. This region exhibits a clear transition from the hilly areas of the JRB, leading to a distinct boundary between high and low carbon storage value distributions.

Impact of land-use changes on carbon storage dynamics

From 2000 to 2020, the change in carbon storage caused by the conversion of cropland to other LUTs accounted for 71.70% of the total change in carbon storage in the JRB. The reduction in carbon storage due to the conversion of various LUTs to construction land was 1.72 times the total reduction in carbon storage in the JRB. Specifically, the reduction of carbon storage caused by the conversion of cropland to construction land was 1.45 times the total reduction in carbon storage in the JRB. Therefore, the conversion of cropland to construction land between 2000 and 2020 was the main factor driving the reduction in carbon storage in the JRB. This finding is consistent with the results of Ren et al. 63 on the impact of land-use change on carbon storage in Gansu Province. However, Zhang et al. 64 found that the conversion of cropland to other LUTs generally led to an increase in carbon storage. In the JRB, carbon storage decreased owing to the following two factors: (1) cropland area experienced a net loss, as 61.11% of the converted cropland area was transformed into construction land; (2) the total carbon density of construction land was only 45.45% of that of cropland.

Studies have yielded varying results regarding the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage under different scenarios. For instance, Li et al. 45 demonstrated that in the northeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, carbon storage decreased over time from 2020 to 2030 under the BAU scenario, and the carbon storage increase in the EP scenario exceeded that of the CP scenario. In a study of Changchun City conducted by Li et al. 19 , carbon storage was projected to decrease over time from 2020 to 2030 under the BAU scenario, with less value impairment in the CP scenario compared with the BAU scenario, and an increase was observed under the EP scenario. Liu et al. 48 found that carbon storage increased over time from 2020 to 2035 under the BAU, CP, and EP scenarios in the Loess Plateau. In contrast, carbon storage in the JRB decreased under different scenarios, with the least value impairment occurring under the CP scenario and the most significant value impairment occurring under the BAU scenario. An examination of historical land-use changes in the JRB reveals that most of the newly added construction land originated from cropland, resulting in intense competition between these two land types. Construction land area increased substantially in different scenarios, while forestland and cropland with ecological functions decreased significantly. This directly leads to a decrease in carbon storage under different scenarios. The implementation of CP policies minimizes the encroachment of cropland and, consequently, reduces construction land expansion. Therefore, in the future, following the Chinese government’s requirements for replenishing cropland, the JRB should increase the cropland area through the reclamation and remediation of unused land suitable for cultivation and the construction of high-standard farmland. This will enhance the carbon sequestration function of the JRB ecosystem, thereby ensuring food and ecological security in the region and the realization of the “dual-carbon” goals.

Limitations and directions for future work

The three future scenarios for the JRB presented in this paper, established using Markov and PLUS models, may not comprehensively represent all potential future land-use scenarios for the region. Given that JRB encompasses various topographic and geomorphic zones, including plateaus, mountains, hills, and basins, there exist significant disparities in both natural environments and human geography. Therefore, future studies should consider dividing the JRB into distinct regions according to topography and geomorphology, allowing for more precise investigations of land-use changes and carbon storage estimations in each region. Additionally, the study identified 19 driving factors solely for simulating future scenarios, without analyzing in detail the driving forces behind land-use changes in the JRB. To comprehensively elucidate these factors, their impact on land-use changes should be further explored through methods such as geodetector models. Moreover, although this paper elucidates the changing patterns of land use in the JRB, it does not extensively explore the competitive relationships between various LUTs and the strategic decisions in the development and utilization of land resources. Therefore, future research should comprehensively analyze land-use conflicts within the JRB.

Conclusions

This paper explored the evolving dynamics of land use and carbon storage within the JRB between 2000 and 2020. Utilizing land-use data from 2020 as a foundation, a coupled PLUS–InVEST model was applied to simulate and predict land-use and carbon storage patterns for 2035 under varying scenarios. The study also investigated the ramifications of land-use alterations on carbon storage, resulting in the following key findings and principal conclusions:

The PLUS–InVEST coupled model demonstrated strong applicability within the JRB. Model validation yielded an OA of 0.9961, and an FoM coefficient of 0.0232, signifying a high level of simulation accuracy. These results demonstrate the PLUS–InVEST model effectiveness in forecasting future land-use patterns within the JRB.

Cropland was the predominant LUT in the JRB, encompassing over 43% of the total land area. It was primarily distributed in the middle and lower reaches of JRB, specifically within the hilly regions of the Sichuan Basin. Moreover, cropland was the only LUT that experienced a decrease in area; the decrease amounted to 1,673.27 km 2 , of which 61.11% was converted into construction land. This indicates the existence of a contradiction between human needs and available land resources in the JRB. This situation necessitates the scientific formulation of land-use policies in the JRB and calls for the exploration of new pathways for the coordinated development of regional urbanization and food and ecological security.

The three most substantial carbon reservoirs in the JRB—cropland, forestland, and grassland—collectively accounted for over 98% of the total carbon storage in 2000–2020, a sum which decreased over time. The conversion of cropland to construction land between 2000 and 2020 was the primary factor driving the reduction in carbon storage in the JRB. This resulted in an overall weakening of the carbon sequestration capacity of the ecosystem in the JRB. Carbon storage exhibits a clear spatial aggregation and stabilization within the JRB, with higher levels observed in the northern regions and lower levels in the southern areas. Potential strategies to address these trends and promote ecological security include implementing more afforestation and grass-planting initiatives in the middle and upper reaches of the JRB. Additionally, efforts to decelerate urbanization in the middle and lower reaches of the JRB could mitigate ecological risks.

Across different scenarios, there was a consistent pattern of increasing water and construction land areas, along with corresponding carbon storage expansion. Conversely, the areas and carbon storage of other LUTs decreased over time from 2020 to 2035, with these shifts predominantly occurring in the middle and lower reaches of the JRB. An examination of the period from 2020 to 2035 under the CP scenario revealed that cropland area exhibited a minimal decline of only 0.20%, significantly less than the 0.91% decrease in the BAU scenario and the 0.64% decrease in the EP scenario. Moreover, the CP-scenario carbon storage value impairment amounted to 2.45 × 10 6 t, which was 47.42% of the carbon storage value impairment in the BAU scenario and 65.56% of that in the EP scenario. Therefore, under the scenarios outlined in this paper, although the CP policy can effectively control the rate of cropland area reduction, it cannot prevent the reduction of cropland area, and the carbon sequestration function of the ecosystem in the JRB will still be weakened. Therefore, strict adherence to the task of replenishing cropland mandated by the Chinese government is imperative. Increasing cropland area through land remediation and high-standard farmland construction is crucial for enhancing the carbon sequestration function of the JRB ecosystem. This approach will positively contribute to ensuring the food and ecological security of the JRB and achieving the “dual-carbon” goals.

Data availability

All data presented in this study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Nanchong Vocational College of Culture and Tourism of Research Fund Program (Grant No. NC23B042). We would like to thank the editors and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions to improve our manuscript.

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Conceptualization, S.Y. and R.Z.; methodology, S.Y. and R.Z.; software, S.Y., C.L. and X.L.; validation, S.Y., L.L. and R.Z.; formal analysis, S.Y., L.L., R.Z., C.L. and X.L.; investigation, S.Y., L.L., R.Z. and C.L.; resources, S.Y., L.L., R.Z., C.L. and X.L.; data curation, S.Y., L.L., R.Z. and X.L.; writing—original draft preparation, S.Y., R.Z. and M.S.; writing—review and editing, S.Y., L.L., R.Z., C.L., X.L., M.S. and B.X.; visualization, S.Y., R.Z., C.L. and X.L.; supervision, S.Y. and R.Z.; project administration, S.Y., L.L. and R.Z.; funding acquisition, L.L. All authors reviewed the manuscript.

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CrowdStrike’s rivals stand to benefit from its update fail debacle

The CrowdStrike debacle — a bug in the company’s Windows software that had the disastrous effect of rendering PCs unusable — has disrupted flights , canceled elective medical treatments, and left many an office worker twiddling their thumbs for hours. Unsurprisingly, it’s also tanked CrowdStrike’s stock price , even as the company’s CEO, George Kurtz, promises a fix and systems begin to crawl back online.

Rivals stand to gain.

While it’s difficult to assess at present the business fallout from what’s being called the worst IT outage in history, investors appear to be sensing opportunity. Stocks in CrowdStrike competitors SentinelOne and Palo Alto Networks climbed by as much as 10% this afternoon.

CrowdStrike competes with a number of vendors, including SentinelOne and Palo Alto Networks but also Microsoft, Trellix, Trend Micro and Sophos, in the endpoint security market. Endpoint security tools detect malware on laptops, mobile phones and other devices that have access to corporate networks.

As of year-end 2023, CrowdStrike had an estimated 14.74% share of global revenue from security software sales, raking in roughly $2.01 billion, according to data from Gartner. That’s second only to Microsoft, which had a 40.16% share ($5.49 billion) last year; CrowdStrike’s next-largest competitor is Trellix, with a 6.62% share ($906 million) as of 2023.

Eric Grenier, cybersecurity threat detection and exposure analyst at Gartner, cautioned that it’s too early to say who the “winners” are in the ongoing CrowdStrike saga. But he told TechCrunch that he often sees Microsoft and SentinelOne shortlisted by the clients he speaks with, and it wouldn’t surprise him if Friday’s events cemented a few C-suite decisions in favor of CrowdStrike alternatives.

“I think that there will be some orgs that have zero tolerance for what happened and will look to alternative solutions,” Grenier said. “Every time a competitor’s sales team is in front of a potential customer and competing against CrowdStrike, they can point to this incident as to why you should choose them over CrowdStrike. Long term, I expect CrowdStrike to suffer some loss in business.”

Not everyone agrees.

Mike Jude, research director at IDC, notes that competitors face essentially the same risks as CrowdStrike in that they’re forced to constantly adjust to a changing threat environment and that this rapid response can lead to critical mistakes. The CrowdStrike bug stemmed from a routine update to the company’s flagship Falcon Sensor product , which conflicted with many Windows installations.

“I don’t believe we should think of this outage as a win/lose situation; I don’t think you will find many of CrowdStrike’s competitors celebrating over this outage,” Jude said. “I do think this outage illustrates just how dependent we have become on cybersecurity solutions.”

Chirag Mehta, VP and principal analyst at Constellation Research, echoed Jude’s sentiment that rivals dodged a bullet by luck. “Other vendors are fortunate that they were not affected this time,” Mehta told TechCrunch. “They now have the opportunity to evaluate the depth of their integration with operating systems, the methods of air-gapping their updates and their deployment processes. Overconfidence can be dangerous.”

In a memo to investors Friday morning, analysts at Goldman Sachs said that it expects to see “minimal share shifts” in the endpoint security market as a result of the CrowdStrike bug. Customers generally understand that it’s a question of when — not if — these incidents will happen, the analysts write, and so they care more about a fix and transparent communication.

“In our view, cybersecurity products have to clear a higher bar of reliability and security in customer deployments than other technology products because they are mission critical and actively attacked by adversaries,” the Goldman analysts wrote. “In some ways, we believe this [outage] will reinforce the barrier to entry in the industry and the need for best-in-class update, outage and customer service protocols, ultimately favoring companies with scale.”

The analysts cite a case study: the Okta breach.

In October 2023, hackers accessed data on all of Okta’s thousands of identity and access management customers. While the hack elongated the deal cycle for some organizations as they looked to ascertain whether Okta’s security protocols had improved (and evaluated other products), it didn’t lead to massive churn. For the most part, Okta customers stayed Okta customers.

If anything, says Raj Joshi, SVP for Moody’s Ratings, the wide-ranging effect of the CrowdStrike outage illustrates the precariousness of IT infrastructure today. “This incident calls into question CrowdStrike’s software engineering practices,” Joshi said, “[but] it also underscores growing vulnerabilities in global cloud infrastructure from increasing points of failure.”

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When a Team Member Speaks Up — and It Doesn’t Go Well

• Megan Reitz
• Amy C. Edmondson

How the both of you can move beyond counterproductive emotions and use it as an opportunity to build psychological safety.

Speaking up — and being heard — in organizations is critical, but failed attempts to speak up happen often at work and can lead people to silence themselves and others in the long run. Instead, leaders and team members should frame such situations as opportunities to learn. But this isn’t easy; it can be difficult to recognize such moments as learning opportunities; it can be difficult to move beyond counterproductive emotions like shame and blame,;and we tend to be too busy and focused on the short term to learn. The authors’ research and experience have shown that the antidote starts with all team members, including the leader, explicitly framing such interactions as experiments from which everyone expects to learn; preparing for them; paying attention to them; implementing certain process tools; and thinking more long-term about learning.

Elena, a new member of a manufacturing operations team, has identified possible safety improvements. She’s thought about what she wants to say to the team but is nervous about speaking up. Why? She’s wary of her new boss, Raya; she doesn’t want to get off on the wrong foot with her colleagues; and she isn’t absolutely sure her ideas will work across the multiple plants that the team oversees.

• Megan Reitz is an associate fellow at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, and adjunct professor of leadership and dialogue at Hult International Business School. She is the author of Dialogue in Organizations (2015) and the coauthor of Mind Time (2018), Speak Up (2019), and the second edition of Speak Out, Listen Up (2024). Follow her on LinkedIn or meganreitz.com .
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Empowering Wellness: Farmacosmo’s Payment Innovation with PayPal Braintree

PayPal Editorial Staff

July 17, 2024

Farmacosmo is an Italian parapharmacy, health and beauty e-commerce platform that provides customers with high-quality wellness products from trusted brands.

They provide customers with a convenient and reliable way to access a wide range of healthcare and beauty products online and in-store while prioritizing quality, safety, and customer satisfaction.

Fabio de Concillio, CEO of Farmacosmo said, “When a customer lands on Farmacosmo, they’re not just looking for supplements and then checking out. They find everything from items for their beauty routine to pet food and more.”

Success metrics

• 6% increase in average order value. 1
• 11% increase in conversion rates. 1

The opportunity – Farmacosmo’s ongoing evolution prompted the need for streamlining checkout.

As Farmacosmo grew from being an online parapharmacy and cosmetics supplier to offering more than 72,000 products live on their ecommerce platform, de Concilio was excited by their growth. However, he knew he had to continue to innovate to meet his customers’ evolving needs.

To streamline the checkout flow, especially for mobile users, Farmacosmo wanted to eliminate added steps. “We were looking for a new and trusted user experience for our customers,” de Concilio said.

Ensuring checkout was as convenient as the array of products offered was a priority. Farmacosmo offered their customers a one-stop-shop for an entire range of healthcare and personal goods. In fact, the average number of items in a Farmacosmo shopping cart is over eight items.

It was also important for Farmacosmo to address the digital well-being of their customers. Through their ContactU.it platform, they facilitate both telemedicine and telepsychology.

With their customer-centric focus and innovative nature, de Concilio and Farmacosmo decided it was time to look for a processor that could scale.

The solution – PayPal Braintree empowered Farmacosmo’s expansion.

In 2023, Farmacosmo chose PayPal Braintree as their processor. Thanks to PayPal's consultative mindset, Farmacosmo’s IT team was able to integrate easily. Within a week, de Concilio noted the seamless nature of the transition. “The switch has been very easy,” he said. “We’ve had PayPal supporting us during the entire process.”

“We have seen an increase in average order value (AOV) and conversion rates with PayPal Braintree,” de Concilio said, “as well as quick resolution of any transactional questions we have.” 1

Another benefit was the knowledge that customers could trust PayPal’s security features. With this confidence in mind, Farmacosmo's user base could rely on PayPal to help keep their transactions secure and facilitate hassle-free checkouts. “Everyone is on the same page,” de Concilio noted. “Customers are moving through the checkout process faster.”

The impact – PayPal Braintree helped to enhance the payment experience for Farmacosmo’s customers.

After integrating PayPal Braintree, Farmacosmo saw near-immediate improvement in AOV. In fact, they noted that their AOV increased from 99 to 105 within 9 months. 1

With more than half of their customers using mobile devices for purchases, the elevated streamlined checkout process facilitated by PayPal proved vital. “When people decide to buy, they simply click. And that’s it,” he said. “In fact, the head of our IT department showed me the results of our move to PayPal Braintree and how quick the checkout process is for our consumers which increased AOV and conversion as a result.”

Thanks to more streamlined processes and data analysis from PayPal Braintree, Farmacosmo can spend more time looking to the future. As Farmacosmo aspires to become the premier source for wellness, PayPal’s solutions and customer service have kept pace.

With PayPal Braintree as a powerful tool, Farmacosmo maintains a steadfast commitment to the customer experience. Always innovating and finding new ways to provide just what the doctor ordered—and much more.

Learn how PayPal global payment processing can help you innovate your business .

Farmacosmo Case Study (PDF)

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Endless shrimp, private equity, and the 'shrimp mafia' that took down Red Lobster

Once a seafood powerhouse in America, Red Lobster is bankrupt and shutting down dozens of restaurants. Is Wall Street to blame?

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What We Know About the Global Microsoft Outage

Airlines to banks to retailers were affected in many countries. Businesses are struggling to recover.

• Share full article

By Eshe Nelson and Danielle Kaye

Eshe Nelson reported from London and Danielle Kaye from New York.

Across the world, critical businesses and services including airlines, hospitals, train networks and TV stations, were disrupted on Friday by a global tech outage affecting Microsoft users.

In many countries, flights were grounded, workers could not get access to their systems and, in some cases, customers could not make card payments in stores. While some of the problems were resolved within hours, many businesses, websites and airlines continued to struggle to recover.

What happened?

A series of outages rippled across the globe as information displays, login systems and broadcasting networks went dark.

The problem affecting the majority of services was caused by a flawed update by CrowdStrike , an American cybersecurity firm, whose systems are intended to protect users from hackers. Microsoft said on Friday that it was aware of an issue affecting machines running “CrowdStrike Falcon.”

But Microsoft had also said there was an earlier outage affecting U.S. users of Azure, its cloud service system. Some users may have been affected by both. Even as CrowdStrike sent out a fix, some systems were still affected by midday in the United States as businesses needed to make manual updates to their systems to resolve the issue.

George Kurtz, the president and chief executive of CrowdStrike, said on Friday morning that it could take some time for some systems to recover.

How a Software Update Crashed Computers Around the World

Here’s a visual explanation for how a faulty software update crippled machines.

How the airline cancellations rippled around the world (and across time zones)

Share of canceled flights at 25 airports on Friday

50% of flights

Ai r po r t

Bengalu r u K empeg o wda

Dhaka Shahjalal

Minneapolis-Saint P aul

Stuttga r t

Melbou r ne

Be r lin B r anden b urg

London City

Amsterdam Schiphol

Chicago O'Hare

Raleigh−Durham

B r adl e y

Cha r lotte

Reagan National

Philadelphia

1:20 a.m. ET

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